NFL "GM" Mock Draft 2012

It's my favourite day of the NFL calendar - Draft day.  I get tired of reading Mock Drafts that are simply predictions of what teams WILL do.  Not only is it impossible to know what every GM is thinking, but who cares if you got it right?  The real way to mock is to play GM for each of the 32 teams.  Once you make a pick, transition to the next team and analyze who is on the board.  Here is my 2nd annual GM MOCK DRAFT illustrating what I would do as the GM for each pick in the 1st round.  

#1 Indianapolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

The worst kept secret in history will officially be made public on Thursday night.  The Colts did not get rid of Peyton Manning to draft anyone else.  You’ve heard it a million times – Luck is the best QB prospect to come along in decades.   Barring some outlier event, he will give Indianapolis fans the best 20 years of quarterback play in the history of the NFL.  A first overall pick with the last name Luck playing with a horseshoe on his helmet – how does the NFL come up with this stuff?

#2 Washington Redskins – QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor)

Bottom line: no one was going to unseat Luck as the #1 pick in the draft.  That being said, RGIII gave a valiant effort.  Through five games last season Griffin had more Touchdowns than incompletions.  Unlike Luck whose passing overshadows his athleticism, it’s Griffin’s athleticism that overshadows his abilities in the pocket.  RGIII ran a sub 4.4 forty and is taller than many expected (6’2).  He is accurate and poised in the pocket which makes him a dual-threat QB that is likely to have success.  The Redskins mortgaged their future to move up from #6 to #2 to grab Griffin, he will be the pick.

#3 Minnesota Vikings – OT Matt Kalil (USC)

The consensus choice seems to be Kalil and for good reason.  He is the premier LT in the 2012 draft class and could wind up as a perennial Pro Bowler.  Something that factors into the decision is his NFL bloodlines (older brother Ryan plays for Carolina and has been to the Pro Bowl the last 3 years).  Protecting Christian Ponder is important, but helping AP out is of equal importance.

#4 Cleveland Browns – RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

This pick fits very well.  The Browns have a solid offensive line (albeit a few holes), but absolutely zero playmakers.  Last year’s second round pick WR Greg Little is a good player and will be a nice #2 receiver in due time.  The Browns lost Peyton Hillis to Kansas City in free agency and they do not have anyone on their current roster that deserves more than 5 carries a game.  Adding Richardson would take an enormous amount of pressure off Colt McCoy and would allow the Browns to play a more ball control style offense – something that would benefit their defense which is emerging as a very good unit.  Richardson can do it all, and his receiving skills are perfect for the West Coast offense.

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

Tampa Bay has done a fantastic job retooling their team via the draft and free agency.  The receiver position is set with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams.  They improved their offensive line tremendously by adding All World guard Carl Nicks in free agency.  The biggest area of need is the secondary and it just so happens that the best player available is the top corner in the draft.  Ronde Barber might not last the season and Aqib Talib’s legal issues cloud his situation.  Considering how much the Bucs improved, they should expect to be playing with a lead more this year.  That means they better be able to cover.  

#6 St. Louis Rams – WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

The Rams have set themselves up for success by trading down and adding a king’s ransom of draft picks from the Redskins.  It’s time to give Sam Bradford some weapons and Blackmon is just that.  Blackmon doesn’t have the ceiling of a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green, but he has the work ethic and talent to be a legitimate #1 receiver in the NFL.  The Rams have a number of guys who can be effective in the slot and TE positions, and adding Blackmon should generate more favourable matchups for guys like Danny Amendola and Lance Kendricks.

#7 Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)

The Jags should trade down here as there is no value for them.  Their pick should be coveted by someone looking to move ahead of Miami at #8 to draft QB Ryan Tannehill.  The Jags have traditionally focused on linemen in the first round.  How’s that worked out for them so far?  The Jags offense has one skill player in RB Maurice Jones-Drew.  Blaine Gabbert struggled as a rookie, but the front office gave him a ringing endorsement by not trading for Tim Tebow.  The only way he is going to succeed is if he gets an influx of talent.  Floyd is a big play receiver who can stretch the field (similar to Vincent Jackson). I understand the importance of linemen in the NFL, but the Jags need to start drafting some skilled guys – they have neglected that area for far too long.  

#8 Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

Is Tannehill a franchise QB?  If he is, he will require a full year to develop.  If it was any other team, I wouldn’t pick Tannehill, but the Dolphins are in a unique position as they just signed Mike Sherman to be their offensive coordinator.  Sherman was Tannehill’s head coach at Texas A&M.  If Tannehill is going to have success, it will be in Miami as he will be with a coach that he is familiar with and who has gotten top level production from him in college.  If I’m the GM in Miami, I ask Sherman if we should take him.  It’s that easy.  

#9 Carolina Panthers - DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State)

The Panthers need to improve their defensive line and Cox is the guy to do it.  He is a hulking presence on the interior and has played against solid competition in the SEC.  His stock has risen lately because scouts are beginning to realize that the reason he didn’t stand out as much on film is because he was constantly double-teamed by opposing offensive linemen.  

#10 Buffalo Bills – SS Mark Barron (Alabama)

The signing of Mario Williams changed the outlook for the Buffalo Bills.  They now possess one of, if not the most dominant defensive line in the NFL.  Opposing quarterbacks will be under pressure and the best way to compliment a ferocious pass rush is with a secondary that can cover.  Adding the top safety in the draft might be a bit high at #10, but the fit is too perfect.  The bills face Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez twice a year.  Barron would help limit their production.  Offensive line is a need but I believe they can grab a guy like Cordy Glenn or Mike Adams in the 2^ndround.  

#11 Kansas City Chiefs – LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)

Kuechly is a higher rated prospect than a number of guys that have gone before him.  He plays a position that doesn’t carry a lot of value, but he shouldn’t make it out of the top 15.  Inside linebacker is a need along with NT and CB.  Kuechly is the best player available and also fills a need.  Coach Romeo Crennel will get the most out of Kuechly.  

#12 Seattle Seahawks – DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)

The Seahawks need a pass rusher and Ingram can be that 4-3 end.  Quinton Coples is physically better, but Ingram works harder and has more consistent film.  Both of these guys would solve the issue on Seattle’s defensive line, but Ingram seems like the safer pick and they have similar talent.

#13 Arizona Cardinals – OG David DeCastro (Stanford)

Bottom line, the Cardinals are going to get a good value player at #13.  The Cardinals have to upgrade their offensive line and if they take Riley Reiff here to fill the bigger need at tackle they aren’t wrong.  DeCastro is one of the better guard prospects to enter the draft in quite some time.  I prefer the game changing DeCastro over the steady Reiff.  Offensive line coach and Hall of Famer guard Russ Grimm will get the maximum production out of DeCastro.

#14 Dallas Cowboys – CB Stephon Gilmore (Alabama)

If the Cardinals draft DeCastro, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Jerry Jones offers this pick and an additional mid-round pick for DeCastro.  The Cardinals could then use this selection on Reiff.  The Cowboys focused on retooling their secondary by adding Brandon Carr in free agency.  Although safety is more of a need than corner, Gilmore could compete with Mike Jenkins for the starting spot opposite Brandon Carr.  In today’s NFL, there is no such thing as having too many good corners.

#15 Philadelphia Eagles – DT Dontari Poe (Memphis)

The Eagles don’t really have a ton of needs to fill, which really highlights how much they underachieved last season.  Areas they would look to improve are safety and linebacker, but the guys left on the board don’t fit from a value/scheme standpoint.  The Eagles are positioned perfectly to take a chance on a high risk/reward prospect like Poe.  At 6’4 348 pounds, Poe ran the 40 in 4.98 and benched 225lbs 44 times.  His physical tools are Pro Bowl caliber, but his production at Memphis did not match his talent.  Poe will be surrounded by high motor guys in Philadelphia and the payoff from a risk standpoint is solid at #15.

#16 New York Jets – DE/OLB Chandler Jones (Syracuse)

While he might not be a household name playing at Syracuse, his brother certainly is.  Chandler is the younger brother of Jon “Bones” Jones, the UFC Heavyweight Champion.  If you are familiar with his body of work, you shouldn’t have any questions about Chandler’s athleticism.  Jones won’t be a guy that makes an immediate impact, but he could develop into a very special pass rusher if coached well.

#17 Cincinnati Bengals – CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

The Bengals are a team on the rise.  With the first of their two picks in the 1^st round, they fill the void that was created when Jonathan Joseph left last summer.  Leon Hall is coming off injury and even if he returns to form, they need a guy across from him that isn’t Pacman Jones.  Kirkpatrick is a tall, well-built corner who can tackle well in run support.  

#18 San Diego Chargers – DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)

The Chargers have seen their team deteriorate over the last few years.  They need help in a number of areas.  I would start by adding a versatile pass rusher like Upshaw.  They could target Riley Reiff if they believe Tackle is a greater need.  Upshaw is a polished prospect who not only can, but has played both defensive end and linebacker at a high level.

#19 Chicago Bears – DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina)

One of the toughest decisions was deciding between Coples and Reiff for the Bears.  On the one hand Reiff could pair with last year’s first round pick Gabe Carimi to shore up the Bears offensive line.  On the other hand, Coples could be a perfect fit in Chicago.  He is the prototypical 4-3 end and on talent alone, should be a top 5 pick.  His effort was inconsistent in college but Julius Peppers, also a former Tar Heel, could be a great mentor.  The Chicago defense is not lacking leadership and I believe it is the right environment for Coples.

#20 Tennessee Titans – DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

Brockers is young but has a lot of upside.  The Titans need to retool their defensive line and Brockers is a great building block on the interior.  The Titans could trade down as well as they don’t have a ton of glaring holes, and should focus more on acquiring talent, regardless of position.

#21 Cincinnati Bengals – WR Kendall Wright (Baylor)

The Bengals hit a home run with AJ Green last year.  He has already established himself as one of the NFL’s best receivers and has a great rapport with fellow rookie QB Andy Dalton.  The Bengals #2 receiver right now is Jordan Shipley.  Drafting Wright would allow Shipley to move to the slot where he is more effective.  If Wright is as billed, the Bengals won’t have to worry about adding receiver help for quite some time.  

#22 Cleveland Browns – OT Riley Reiff (Iowa)

The Browns are lucky that a player of Reiff’s caliber falls to #22.  He is a polished technician who will be solid on the right side (think Bryan Bulaga – fellow Hawkeye first rounder from 2 years ago).  If the Browns draft Trent Richardson as I believe they should, it’s worth drafting Reiff here to make sure Trent has as much help as he can get.  This pick also ensures that if and when the Browns find their franchise quarterback, he will be well protected.

#23 Detroit Lions – OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

At long last, the Lions finally draft an offensive tackle – and a good one in Martin.  Not much point discussing other options here.  The Lions greatest need is offensive line and Martin is good value at #23.  The only other guy I considered is Janoris Jenkins, but Martin is the safer, and better pick.

#24 Pittsburgh Steelers – ILB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)

The Steelers could go a number of different ways with this pick.  The offensive line needs improvement, but adding Hightower to a linebacking corps that includes James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons is a dynamite move.  Kevin Zeitler or Cordy Glenn would be the offensive line options here if they go that way.

#25 Denver Broncos – DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)

Worthy is a load in the middle of the defense and can eat up double teams for the Broncos.  He isn’t an explosive pass rusher, but he can do everything else and has great film against top offensive linemen in this draft class from the Big Ten.  Peyton can handle the offense; they need to allow their defense to take the next step after finishing strong last season.

#26 Houston Texans – WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)

Andre Johnson will continue to get double teamed until Houston has a player opposite him that command respect.  Hill is raw, but has the height and speed to make an impact early as he develops into a more complete player.  The Texans offense is good, but if they want to make a run, they need another receiving threat on the outside.

#27 New England Patriots – OLB Shea Mclellin (Boise State)

Mclellin is a perfect fit for the Patriots multiply scheme front.  He fits best as a 3-4 OLB but will rest assured Bill Belichick will get the most out of this high energy player.  The Patriots have few, if any needs on the offensive side of the ball, and manufacturing pressure will be vital, especially after losing Andre Carter and Mark Anderson.

#28 Green Bay Packers – DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)

The Packers would love to get Mclellin as he fits perfectly with what they do on defense.  He’s not available so they take the next best edge player in the draft.  Mercilus can play either OLB or DE in the 3-4 and will be moved around based on down and distance.  The Packers need to find people to create pressure on opposing QB’s.

#29 Baltimore Ravens – C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

Even if current Centre Matt Birk plays next year, it will be his last.  Peter Konz isn’t as good as the Pouncey brothers, but he is a very smart player and has a lot of ability.  It isn’t a flashy pick, but the Ravens need a new leader on the offensive line, Konz can play guard this year and then take over at centre next season.

#30 San Francisco 49ers – CB Janoris Jenkins (Northern Alabama)

Jenkins is the most talented corner in this year’s draft.  He has all the tools to be an elite shutdown corner in the NFL.  His problems are off the field as he was kicked off the team at Florida.  Jenkins career will largely be dictated by his personal growth and the people he surrounds himself with.  Something tells me Jim Harbaugh is the right guy to lead him.

#31 New England Patriots – DE Nick Perry (USC)

The Patriots offense is Super Bowl ready.  They need to focus on adding defensive talent and combining Perry with Mclellin will give Belichick a pair of talented pass rushers.  In reality the Patriots will likely trade this pick to a team moving up for a QB like Brandon Weeden.  

#32 New York Giants – OT/G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)

Everyone has the TE Fleener going to the Giants and he’s a valid option.  I just don’t think he’s a first round talent and the Giants can add a capable TE in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.  Glenn is versatile and exactly what the Giants need to ensure that they have depth upfront. 

Manning to the Broncos: Immediate Reaction

John Elway got his man. Peyton Manning will become the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos after the final details of a deal can be ironed out. After a few weeks of soul searching, recruiting visits and workouts, it appears that Manning chose familiarity over offensive talent. His relationship with Elway and head coach John Fox propelled him to the mile high city.

It's a surprising choice, given the other teams that were in the hunt.  The 49ers are better than the Broncos at every position.  They gave Manning the best chance to win Super Bowls immediately.  The Titans are in his old division and have more talent than the Broncos as well.  In the end, none of that mattered to Peyton.

It's not all bad.  Manning joins a team with a top 15 defense, a solid offensive line and a young receiver who is emerging as a potential star. The Broncos surely aren’t done as they will look to add additional weapons for Manning. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark could both in the mix as the Broncos do not have an abundance of talent at the WR and TE positions. Jeff Saturday could also be added to help the offensive line learn Manning’s nuances and verbiage at the line of scrimmage.

The bottom line is if Manning is healthy the Broncos are the favourite to win the AFC West. It won’t come easy with the Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs all fielding competitive squads, but the Broncos won the division last year, and the addition of Manning is good for a few more wins in 2012.

The question now becomes what happens to Tim Tebow? In all likelihood he will be traded, but it remains to be seen what teams will have interest. It’s an extremely unfortunate situation for Tebow, but you can’t blame John Elway or the Broncos for making this move. They acquired one of the best quarterbacks of all time and anytime you have the chance to do that, you have to pull the trigger.  You can bet that Manning will be fielding a lot of "Tebow" questions when he finally addresses the media.  Expect him to be prepared well for this - as usual.

It will undoubtedly be a weird locker room dynamic after the team rallied around Tebow’s magic to go from 1-4 to a home playoff victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Manning understands what he is getting into and it might take all of about 30 minutes for the team to get on board with Peyton as the new captain of the ship.

It’s ok to feel bad for Tebow but we’ve seen this script before. It’s not the first time he’s been written off after proving himself. They doubted him in high school, said he couldn’t be effective in the SEC, and claimed he would have to change positions in the NFL. After he proved the doubters wrong, he was finally given an endorsement from Elway who stated Tebow would be the starter going into the 2012 season. Guess that could still happen but with another team.

Tebow’s dog is named Bronco - perhaps he changes its name to Manning and puts one of those satellite dish neck braces on him permanently. All jokes aside, maybe this will work out for the best. Assuming a team trades for him, it will indicate that they believe in him and want him to be their guy. The Broncos never did, but were forced into playing him because he won games. If we’ve learned anything from Tim over the years it’s that adversity fuels him. He’ll be back, and this time with an organization that believes in him just as much as his teammates do.

Super Bowl Pre-Kickoff Analysis

Why you shouldn't bet on the Patriots

- They only won 2 games this year over teams with a winning record (Broncos & Ravens last week)

- They have the 31st ranked defence 

- Star TE Rob Gronkowski is playing on a severely injured ankle

- They've lost to a very similar Giants team 4 years ago

Why you should bet on the Patriots

- You may have heard of their QB, Tom Brady

- Their Coach isn't too bad either (also one of the all time greats)

- They rarely lose when given a shot at 'redemption'

- They're better prepared for the Giants pass rush than in 2007

Why you shouldn't bet on the Giants

- Their secondary is suspect and haven't covered very well throughout the playoffs

- They are the Vegas underdogs (never wrong to take the favourite)

- Despite Manning, their offence isn't as good as the Patriots

Why you should bet on the Giants

- Eli Manning has been the best in the 4th quarter this season

- The Giants have a better defence than the Patriots

- They match-up well against the Patriots on offence

My Picks?

The Patriots aren't as good as they were in 2007.  The Giants are actually slightly better than they were in 2007.  So why am I picking the Patriots?  Because in 2007, The Pats offence was predicated on Randy Moss going deep.  That took too much time and the Giants pass rush was able to get to Brady 5 times.  Now, the Patriots offence is built around quick passes and features the two great young Tight Ends.  Match-ups are key and Brady will utilize the quick passing game to neutralize the Giants pass rush.  Expect a lot of balance on both sides right from the get go.

Patriots 33  Giants 30

Prop picks:
MVP: Tom Brady
Non-QB MVP: Victor Cruz
Team to score first: Giants
Player to score first: Brandon Jacobs

Enjoy!

Top 10 Greatest QB's of All Time

Without a doubt, Super Bowl XLVI is going to be the most hyped sporting events in recent memory. The game features a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl and includes two of the largest markets in the world of Sports. I’ve already seen numerous headlines such as “Brady’s Revenge”, “The Rematch” and my personal favourite, “Brady and Eliath Round 2”.


Although both will deny it vehemently using robotic phrases such as “We’re only concerned with winning this game”, “I don't pay attention to what people are saying” and “It’s an honour even to be mentioned with those guys”, their quarterback legacies are on the line.

For Eli Manning, it’s a stepping stone. With at least five years left in his prime, Eli has the opportunity to get his 2nd Super Bowl ring. For context, consider that 19 different Quarterbacks have won a single Super Bowl. Only 10 have won it multiple times. He has proven this year that he is an elite quarterback and with a win, would solidify himself as one of the top 25 passers in the history of the game. People will claim he should be considered better than Peyton (which is pure insanity if you ask me), others will say even with his ring(s) he isn’t in the top 25. The critical thing with Eli is that he has a few prime years left in him. With the Giants talent, it’s not unreasonable to think that he could wind up with 3 rings (only four QBs have that many), in which case we would need to rethink the argument.

On the other side of the field, Tom Brady has the chance to establish himself as the greatest of all time. A win would put him in a three-way tie for most rings ever with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. Bradshaw has the rings but rarely cracks the top 5 list of greats as he won with the aid of an outstanding supporting cast and defense. That leaves us with Montana and Brady. Tom will have the more gaudy numbers having played in the pass heavy era. Montana will be remembered as mister clutch, having never lost the big game (something Brady has already done). A loss for Brady would essentially eliminate him from the discussion and leave Montana alone at the top. It would prove that Brady is vulnerable (2 Super Bowl losses to the same team), and draw attention to his lack of playoff success in the latter half of his career.

Regardless of where you land on the above arguments, one thing is certain: this Super Bowl has everyone talking about who the greatest QBs of all time are and how we go about quantifying and substantiating that group. In my opinion, rings matter, but only so much. They matter enough to push Tom Brady ahead of Peyton Manning, but no one is going to sit there and say that Trent Dilfer was better than Dan Marino for getting a ring. The best way to come up with this list is put yourself in the following hypothetical scenario:

- You are the GM of an NFL Franchise
- Every player in the league is a free agent (no one is on your roster)
- You have the first pick of free agents and it must be a quarterback
- Every player of all time is 25 years old and in perfect health
- Contracts don’t matter
- Whoever you decide to pick will play in their respective era. (If you pick Brady it will be the 2000’s. If you pick Bart Starr it will be the 1960’s. The offensive systems of that time will be prominent.

With that in mind, here's the order the guys come off the board:

1. Joe Montana
Until Brady wins his 4th, Joe’s still the king of the mountain. His record four Super Bowl Championships all came as a direct result of his superior play. Critics will say that he had Jerry Rice and Bill Walsh at the helm, but it was still on Joe to execute and make the necessary plays to win games. Something he did on such a consistent basis that it looked easy.

2. Tom Brady
I’ll say it right off the bat – If Brady wins the Super Bowl, he jumps to #1 on my list. Brady has had talented targets but no one like Rice (voted #1 NFL Player of all time). In today’s NFL, he is the prototypical quarterback. A guy who can make all the calls at the line, make every throw and is at his best with the game on the line. Love him or hate him, appreciate the fact that we are watching one of, if not the greatest of all time.

3. Peyton Manning
I’m sure people will disagree with this one, but based on the criteria above, it’s an easy decision. Manning hasn’t won the rings, but his legacy only grew this season with how awful the Colts did without him. Remember that the Patriots won 11 games without Tom Brady a few years ago. I’ll take Peyton third overall and build a better team around him. His inability to consistently win the big games drops him below Brady, but Manning changed the quarterback position forever.


4. Johnny Unitas
Johnny U was the most dominant passer of his era. He only won one Super Bowl, but he also grabbed two NFL Championships prior to the Super Bowl era. Johnny’s record of 47 straight games with a touchdown pass is still intact, which is remarkable when you consider the differences in offensive trends between then and now, but his most important quality was his leadership. When it comes to leadership, Johnny is tops on this list. In college he played both ways (usually leading his team in tackles), and it was this ‘win-at-all-cost’ mentality that fans and teammates loved.

5. John Elway
One thing that a lot of people don’t remember about John is that he was a tremendous athlete. Elway could make plays with his feet when necessary, but usually preferred to use his rocket arm as the primary weapon. John didn’t win a Super Bowl until late in his career, but cemented his legacy by winning 2 straight. Clutch? You bet. Elway orchestrated what is simply known as “the drive”, to beat the Browns in a classic AFC Championship game. In a two-minute drill, he is at his best. He took a much maligned franchise in Denver and turned them into a perennial contender.

6. Brett Favre
#4 is my boy. He’s been my favourite player since I was young and is mainly responsible for turning me into a football fan. He leads the league in all statistical passing categories (including interceptions), has won a Super Bowl and 3 MVP awards. Favre is the consummate gunslinger. Having a knack for the theatrical, Favre would make miraculous plays out of nothing and never shied away from the long ball. People look to his 2 critical interceptions in NFC Championship games and somehow believe that he ‘always blew it’. Favre had his share of mistakes, but the good outweighed the bad by a mile. He played at a high level for nearly two decades registering his best statistical season at the age of 40.  Brett's toughness is unmatched and he will go down as one of the most entertaining players in the history of sports.

7. Bart Starr
The MVP of the inaugural Super Bowl couldn’t have been awarded to a more deserving player. At the time of his retirement, Starr had led the Packers to five NFL championships (2 Super Bowls), was the MVP of both Super Bowls he played in and was a career 9-1 in postseason games. Starr also had the highest completion % in NFL history and is currently ranked 2nd all time for playoff passer rating. Starr was unquestionably the greatest QB of his era and was at his best when it mattered most.


8. Dan Marino
Rings don’t mean everything. Despite not winning the big game, Marino led the Dolphins to 10 playoff appearances in 17 years. Unless you were a Dolphin fan back in those days, you’d be hard pressed to name a star receiving option on the Fins at any point in his career. People that knock Marino for not winning typically haven’t seen him throw the ball. Watching him throw is a thing of beauty. The quickest release combined with pinpoint accuracy and an incredibly strong arm provided Marino with what I believe to be the best arm in the history of the NFL. His resume is flawed because he never won a championship but football is the ultimate team sport and you can’t win on your own. Marino is too good to be any lower – rings or no rings.

9. Troy Aikman
Aikman won three world championships in Dallas and will forever have a special place with Cowboys fans. Yes he did have Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, but Aikman made it all work. Smith’s success was fueled by the fact that opposing defenses had to respect the pass when playing Dallas. Aikman, Irvin and Smith were nicknamed the ‘triplets’ – a fitting nickname as they all were equally valuable to each other’s success. Troy is one of the worst colour commentators ever, but he is one of the best quarterbacks ever.

10. Terry Bradshaw
Ok, so Bradshaw is a lot different than most of the guys on this list. He didn’t have the greatest arm, and to be honest, the Steelers of the 1970s were so good that didn’t have to do too much. However, when it comes down to it, there’s only one stat used to gauge quarterbacks – wins. I would pick everyone ahead of Bradshaw on this list because I believe they would get me more wins than he would, but I honestly believe that the guys after him wouldn’t produce as many. He was a tremendous leader and a powerful football player. He called all of his own plays (something often overlooked) and was good enough at it to lead the Steelers to 4 Super Bowl championships. As the late, great Al Davis used to say, “Just win baby”.

Just missed the cut: Steve Young, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach

Conference Championship Picks

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
The top two seeds square off at Gillette Stadium for a trip to the Super Bowl.  The weather is supposed to be great considering it's January in the North East.  All signs point to a classic.

When the Patriots have the ball
Tom Brady looks like a man on a mission.  He is in the latter part of his Hall of Fame career and in reality, this could be his last trip to the big game.  Brady's play last week would imply two things: 1) despite his age he still looks to be every bit in his prime, and 2) he knows he is on the wrong side of 35 and wants to take advantage of his remaining opportunities.  The big question is how will the Ravens cover the Patriots receivers.  Rob Gronkowski has made it very clear that he cannot be covered by one man.  If the Ravens plan on stopping him, they will need to jam him with a linebacker and provide safety help.  This could open up space for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (both very dangerous threats in their own right).  The Steelers showed that if you can jam the Patriots receivers and get pressure, you can slow the offensive juggernaut.  I expect the Ravens to try a similar strategy.  Ed Reed will play centre field, the Ravens will rush four and hope that Suggs and company can get to Brady before Gronk, Wes, Hernandez or Branch can get open.  If that's Baltimore's plan, expect to see lots of RB Dany Woodhead as Ray Lewis will be forced to play man coverage on the backs.  For the Ravens to be succesful, they will need to attack the ballcarrier and be aggresive.  If they sit back, Brady will pick them apart.

When the Ravens have the ball
Ray Rice will get a lot of touches early as he was a big reason the Ravens beat the Patriots last time they met in the playoffs.  The difference this time around is Brady has an abundance of weapons on offense.  If the Ravens are going to win this one, it will come down to Joe Flacco's ability to make plays in the passing game.  He has an arsenal of weapons, a fabulous offensive line and is facing one of the lowest ranked defenses in the NFL.  Forget the matchups.  This is the game where the world finds out if Joe Flacco is for real.

Pick: Patriots and lay the points (-7)

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
It's supposed to be cold and rainy with a side of mud.  Sounds like some home cooking for the 49ers.

When the Giants have the ball
Good luck trying to run against the 49ers.  The Giants can't completely abandon the run, but Eli will have to make the plays to put up points.  There's no doubt he can do that, but the 49ers are a different beast.  They are the most physical team I've seen in awhile and will cause all sorts of problems for the Giants.  The Smiths (Aldon and Justin) will need to create pressure on Manning (something they can do very well).  I get the impression that the Giants believe they are already destined for a Super Bowl rematch, that doesn't bode well for this week.

When the 49ers have the ball
Alex Smith was exceptional last week in the final minutes, but don't expect him to do too much this weekend.  Mainly because that isn't what got the 49ers this far.  They will run the ball and utilize play action.  If the situation calls for it, Alex Smith can get more aggresive, but I think the Niners will have success running the ball.  The Giants Dline is built to rush the passer.  They beat the Falcons (who abandoned the run too early), and then the Packers (who barely run at all).  The Niners Oline will want to send a message early that they are not a 'finnesse' group.

Pick: 49ers (-2.5)

Rest In Peace

What a surprise! This team crept into the playoffs on the final week of the season, won a playoff game, upset the #1 seed in the divisional round and will now go on the road to play in the NFC Championship game. No, I’m not talking about the 2011 New York Giants, I’m talking about the 2010 Green Bay Packers.


Every season we are reminded of how important momentum is to the game of football. As I’ve mentioned before, I believe it to be the single most important aspect of a game. We’ve seen some great examples of its effect this year. Tim Tebow’s heroics captivating the Denver Broncos, the New York Giants riding a wave of confidence into the playoffs and now into the conference championship and even the Indianapolis Colts (feeling how the other side of things feels) losing games because of a defeatist attitude that crept into their locker room. Last year, the Packers found out first hand how much of an ally momentum can be. Which is why it’s somewhat surprising that they chose to discard it just in time for the playoffs this season.

After losing the first game all season to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers came out the following week and got right back on track against the Bears. Looming large was the paramount decision that faces every team that is lucky enough to secure the top seed before week 17. Do they rest their starters? The Packers decided to sit Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings for the season finale against the Lions. Matt Flynn got the start and passed for 480 yards and 6TD’s (both Packer records) as the Packers offensive juggernaut seemed fine under his leadership. Matthews, Jennings and Woodson all had nagging injuries but Rodgers was in perfect health. The obvious benefit was to have those key contributors at 100% health for the first round of the playoffs. The downside is that Rodgers would be without game action for 22 days – by far the longest stretch since August.

For Packers fans, yesterday’s game couldn’t have been more frustrating to watch. After watching Rodgers play pitch and catch all season, it was painful to see the amount of miscues, dropped passes and inaccurate throws. Early in the game Jennings was wide open for a touchdown – he broke to the post, Rodgers threw to the corner – opportunity missed. On a critical third down Jermichael Finley was open for a first down – Rodgers led him about a foot too far – opportunity missed. These two plays were simply a microcosm for how the game went for the Packers.

It wasn’t just the offence either. The Giants last drive before halftime was a defensive nightmare. The Packers let Ahmad Bradshaw run from one side of the field to the other without tackling him in bounds. That allowed Manning one chance at a Hail Mary pass. As soon as the ball left his hands you could see that he had Nicks open in the endzone. Two Packer defenders had undercut the routes and were standing, covering no one, at the 10 yard line. There was no excuse for such mental miscues at a critical juncture of the game. Rusty? Perhaps.

The New England Patriots (the Packers of the AFC), had to play their starters the last week of the regular season because home field hadn’t been secured. They’re dismantling of the Broncos Saturday would indicate that they didn’t need that extra week of rest (even though Brady actually had an injury to his non-throwing shoulder).

As I mentioned at the start of the article, it’s surprising that the Packers didn’t have better perspective on the importance of momentum. Last year they were able to ride the hot-hand of Rodgers all the way to a Super Bowl title. This year, it might be the Giants who capitalize on that formula.

The debate to rest players in the final week of the regular season will continue on forever and there are examples that resting guys can have a positive outcome. This year though, the argument for playing your starters got much stronger. There’s no denying Rodgers was off. He didn’t look like the guy who led the Packers to a 15-1 record while posting one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history.

Hindsight is 20/20 and I’m sure if Rodgers had played and gotten hurt, Mike McCarthy would’ve been ostracized from Green Bay. It’s never an easy decision, but as the Packers found out – sometimes it’s much easier to be the scrappy underdog than king of the hill.

-Jansen-

Divisional Weekend Pick'em

After starting last week 4-0, finishing 5-3 was a bit of a disappointment.  What wasn't disappointing?  The OT thriller between the Broncos and the Steelers.  Enjoy this weekend - it's the best weekend of the NFL Calendar.

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

It seems like the biggest question facing the New Orleans Saints is whether they can take the show on the road.  Playing in the friendly confines of the Super Dome, they have been well , Super.  Waiting for them in San Francisco is one of the NFL’s best defenses, and a well-rested one at that.  Even if the Saints do require good weather to operate their offensive juggernaut, an outdoor game in San Francisco should certainly ease the indoor-outdoor transition. 

The 49ers success this season has been based upon playing tough defense and running the football.  If the Saints can score early and get a lead, Niners QB Alex Smith will be pressured into making plays in the passing game.  In a shootout between Brees and Smith, Brees wins every time.  However, if the 49ers can keep the Saints out of the end zone, then they can let Smith make high percentage throws off play action and wear down the Saints defense that is built more for speed than power.  

In reality, the Saints are much better on the road than people give them credit for (16-8 in the last 3 seasons).  Alex Smith was good enough to get the 49ers into the playoffs but against New Orleans, he is going to have to make a lot of plays, and I just don’t think he can do enough.

Pick: Saints and to cover the -3.5

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

Tebowmania continues this week as the Broncos go on the road to face the top seeded New England Patriots.  No one gave Denver a chance against the Steelers last week and they proved that they can beat quality teams playing their style.  How sustainable this offence is in the future doesn’t matter.  What does matter is that it has proven to be effective in the present and when the chips are down, Tebow has proved that he can make plays.  

Don’t believe the hype about how the last time these two teams played the Patriots blew the Broncos out.  In the first quarter, the Broncos rushed for 160 yards against the NFL’s #31 ranked defense.  Last week, Tebow threw for 316 yards against the Steelers – a much better defense.  What plagued the Broncos last time was turnovers.  They turned the ball over 3 times in the 2^nd quarter which is akin to signing your own death certificate when playing Tom Brady.  The keys for Denver are to control the time of possession and have zero turnovers.  If they can win the turnover battle, they have a chance to make it close at the end.

When the Patriots are on offence, they have proved almost impossible to slow down, let alone stop.  The only time they really showed signs of struggling was early this season against the Steelers.  Pittsburgh played press man-to-man coverage and blitzed Brady, which actually was very successful.  It’s also what the Jets did last year in the playoffs to Brady and the Pats.  Earlier this season when they played, Denver only rushed 3 linemen and dropped everyone into coverage.  Bad idea.  Brady just sat back and picked their defense apart.  Expect Fox to turn loose Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller while playing press man coverage in the secondary.  The only way to beat Brady is to get hits on him and not give his receivers time or space to get open.  

Pick: Patriots but definitely take the Broncos to cover +13.5

Houston @ Baltimore

This is the most ‘old school’ football game of the week, where the keys will be running the ball and playing suffocating defense.  The Ravens are much better when playing at home, especially Joe Flacco, who will be relied upon to win this game.  

Houston runs the ball better than anyone in the league.  Their zone running game featuring Arian Foster is exceptional and the threat of Andre Johnson in the passing game will force the Ravens to keep safeties deep.  Despite the numbers, I believe the Ravens run defense has regressed as of late.  Since coming back from injury, Ray Lewis has missed more tackles than I’ve seen him miss his entire career.  He will need to be at his very best to stop the Texans run game.  

It all comes down to Flacco.  He will need to score points early so that pressure is put on the Texans offence – more specifically rookie QB TJ Yates.  If he struggles, the Texans can continue to pound the rock on offence and ‘hide’ Yates with play action.  If Ray Rice doesn’t get 30+ touches I’ll be shocked.  In the end, I think the Texans are physical enough and play good enough defensively to keep it close.  Even though I don’t have a ton of faith in Flacco, I have to believe he will make the plays that Yates can’t.

Pick: Ravens but Texans +7.5

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Up until this season it was common for the defending Super Bowl champions to miss the playoffs as part of the ‘Super Bowl Hangover’.  Apparently no one told the Packers.  They cruised through the regular season with one of the most prolific offenses in recent memory.  Their defense gets a bad rap, but part of the reason they give up so many yards is because opposing teams are constantly throwing on them to try and catch up.  However, the Giants are as hot as any team in the league right now and should be considered a serious threat to Green Bay.

Eli Manning has been exceptional this season.  It was his play that kept the Giants alive when they were inundated with injuries.  He’s been the best QB in the fourth quarter which proves that the Giants are dangerous with the game on the line.  Their run game has been very strong lately as well and that balance has made the Giants offense very effective.  The Packers secondary is strong, but they can’t cover forever.  The key when the Giants have the ball will be how much pressure Dom Capers can get on Manning.  If they can’t rush the passer, expect a shootout.

The only way you can dream of slowing down Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him without blitzing.  The Giants are the perfect team to do that.  Their defensive line is the best in the league at rushing the passer which has helped mask a relatively weak secondary.  Rodgers will need to use draws and quick step passes early to slow down the rush.  The spread is way too high on this game, but the Packers will remind everyone that no flash in the pan, streaky team is going to come into their house and hand them only their 2^nd all year.  

Pick: Packers but Giants to cover +9.5