Broncos vs 49ers (-2) @ London
The Niners are not translating talent into wins. The Broncos are winning games with a much less talented roster. Josh McDaniels is a better coach than Mike Singletary. I'll take the Broncos and apologize to the fans overseas that we can't send them more of a marquee matchup.
Spread: Broncos (+2)
Straight Up: Broncos
Jaguars @ Cowboys (-6.5)
Kitna will get the start at home for the injured Tony Romo. Romo isn't solely responsible for the 'Boys dismal season, but perhaps Kitna will provide a change. The Jags secondary is very weak. If nothing else, the Cowboys need to win, to give Jerry Jones something. Dez Bryant is an emerging star.
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
Straight Up: Cowboys
Redskins @ Lions (-2.5)
The Lions coming off a bye week pose a big threat to the Redskins. Matt Stafford looks to return, but am I supposed to believe that he'll last more than a half with Brian Orakpo coming off the edge against Jeff Backus?
Spread: Redskins (+2.5)
Straight Up: Redskins
Packers @ Jets (-6)
The Jets are one of the few preseason favourites that is living up to the hype. They will be healthy, coming off a bye week, and Green Bay is banged up. The Packers have a good receiver core and threaten teams by spreading out the formation. Unfortunately for them, the Jets have the best secondary in the NFL.
Spread: Packers (+6)
Straight Up: Jets
Panthers @ Rams (-3)
Don't look now, but if the season ended today, the Rams would be in the playoffs. The Panthers have been an up and down team, despite their record and without DeAngelo Williams, they will lack the freshness in the backfield that they are used to.
Spread: Rams (-3)
Straight Up: Rams
Dolphins @ Bengals (-1)
Carson Palmer looked great last week. If the Bengals want to have a chance, he needs to continue to play well. If Brandon Marshall can have his way with the Bengals secondary the way Roddy White did last week, this could be a shootout.
Spread: Bengals (-1)
Straight Up: Bengals
Bills @ Chiefs (-7.5)
The Chiefs are one of the best at running the football and the Bills are the worst at stopping the run. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good running Chan Gailey's offence, and it wouldn't surprise me if this was close.
Spread: Bills (+7.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs
Titans @ Chargers (-3.5)
It sounds like Vince Young will start at quarterback this week. I wonder if he will have the same chemistry with Kenny Britt that Kerry Collins showed last week. The Chargers play better at home and need the win more than the Titans.
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
Straight Up: Chargers
Bucs @ Cardinals (-3)
The Bucs are another surprise team, that has themselves in the thick of the playoff race. The Cardinals have zero consistency this year but the last time they were at home, they beat the defending world champions.
Spread: Cardinals (-3)
Straight Up: Cardinals
Seahawks @ Raiders (-2.5)
The Raiders ran over the Broncos last week. I feel like a broken record, but the Seahawks have lacked consistency all year. I'll go with the team that is playing better at this point in the season and is at home.
Spread: Raiders (-2.5)
Straight Up: Raiders
Vikings @ Patriots (-6)
Will the streak come to an end? I doubt it, but if it's a hobbled Favre or Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings will be running the football a lot. The Patriots aren't great at stopping the run, and the Vikings play good defence.
Spread: Vikings (+6)
Straight Up: Patriots
Steelers @ Saints (-1)
The Steelers are the better football team this year. They run the ball better than the Saints, they play better defence than the Saints and lately Drew Brees hasn't given me any reason to think their aerial attack is superior to Big Ben.
Spread: Steelers (+1)
Straight Up: Steelers
Texans @ Colts (-5.5)
It worked last time. Peyton Manning in primetime?
Spread: Colts (-5.5)
Straight Up: Colts
Season Straight Up: 54-48
Season vs Spread: 45-52-5
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Week 7 Pick'em
Steelers @ Dolphins (-3)
For the last few years, Miami's identity has been running the football. Although they rank only 14th in the league in rushing, they are not a spread attack team and need to run to setup the pass. The Steelers rank first in rush defence and ninth in rush offence. Oh and Big Ben looked pretty good last week.
vs Spread: Steelers (+3)
Straight Up: Steelers
Bengals @ Falcons (-3.5)
Just as I thought the Falcons were the most consistent team in the NFC, they get beat down by the Eagles. One of the reasons the Bengals have struggled is, surprise surprise, their ineffectiveness running the ball and stopping the run (18th in both categories). My favourite betting stat: Matt Ryan is 15-1 at home.
vs Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
Straight Up: Falcons
Eagles @ Titans (-3)
The Titans looked great on Monday night, albeit against the Jags. The Eagles pounded one of the better teams in the league last weekend and Kevin Kolb looks like he will get his chance to take back the starting job. Expect a shootout.
vs Spread: Eagles (+3)
Straight Up: Eagles
Redskins @ Bears (+3)
Both these teams have striking similarities. Neither can protect the quarterback (both in the top 10 in sacks allowed). Both quarterbacks also like to throw the ball downfield. A lot of the sacks on Cutler are his own fault as he needs to throw short against overload blitzes. This is a defining game for both teams.
vs Spread: Bears (+3)
Straight Up: Bears
Browns @ Saints (-13)
The Saints looked more like their old selves last week in Tampa. The Browns have played quality teams close this year and Colt McCoy did better than I thought he would against the Steelers in his first start. Browns should cover but can't see the Saints not winning at home.
vs Spread: Browns (+13)
Straight Up: Saints
Bills @ Ravens (-13)
The Ravens have not been as good on defence but it looks as though Ed Reed is nearing a return. The Bills have been awful, but come off a bye week with an intelligent quarterback and a thiner backfield which should help with consistency. Ravens win, but Ryan Fitzpatrick and CJ Spiller make enough plays to keep it under the spread.
vs Spread: Bills (+13)
Straight Up: Ravens
Rams @ Bucs (-3)
This game showcases two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Both clubs have had up and down seasons so far, but we all can agree that they have been better that most would've expected. The Rams just seem to be jelling and have a true running back on their roster.
vs Spread: Rams (+3)
Straight Up: Rams
49ers @ Panthers (+3)
FINALLY, the Niners came through and won a football game. It wasn't very convincing and it was against the Raiders, but it's a start. The Panthers are in full rebuild mode now whereas the Niners still have an outside shot at the post-season. I hate picking them because of how pathetic they've been this year but...
vs Spread: Niners (-3)
Straight Up: Niners
Cardinals @ Seahawks (-5.5)
I wasn't as impressed with Seattle's win over Chicago as most, mainly because I don't think the Bears are all that good. The Cardinals are coming off a bye, after beating the defending world champs. Seahawks have been very good at home this season.
vs Spread: Cardinals (+5.5)
Straight Up: Seahawks
Patriots @ Chargers (-3)
The Chargers are another team that have disappointed. Losing to the Rams? C'mon! They are another team that plays much better at home, but could be without the services of Antonio Gates. The Pats didn't miss a beat after the Moss trade and are getting better every week on defence. The Chargers lead the league in offensive yards per game and defensive yards allowed.
vs Spread: Patriots (+3)
Straight Up: Patriots
Raiders @ Broncos (-8.5)
Josh McDaniels is looking smarter each day that Cutler struggles in Chicago. He refuses to hit his check downs and that is essential in McDaniels offence. Kyle Orton has no trouble and is enjoying a great year. The Raiders are playing competitive football but Mile High is one of the toughest places to play.
vs Spread: Raiders (+8.5)
Straight Up: Broncos
Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
The Prodigal son returns (again). Neither team is where they expected to be at this point in the season but the winner is going to be right in the mix at the top of the NFC North. Another week with Moss, a win to get the pressure off last week, I just think the Vikings are about to turn it up. Packers might just be a bit too banged up. Expect another shootout.
vs Spread: Vikings (+2.5)
Straight Up: Vikings
Giants @ Cowboys (-3)
The 'Boys battled last week, but ultimately could not salvage their season. I thought they played well last week and got a few less breaks than the Vikings. At home I think they will get a win for the fans.
vs Spread: Cowboys (-3)
Straight Up: Cowboys
Season Straight Up: 49-40
Season vs Spread: 38-47-4
For the last few years, Miami's identity has been running the football. Although they rank only 14th in the league in rushing, they are not a spread attack team and need to run to setup the pass. The Steelers rank first in rush defence and ninth in rush offence. Oh and Big Ben looked pretty good last week.
vs Spread: Steelers (+3)
Straight Up: Steelers
Bengals @ Falcons (-3.5)
Just as I thought the Falcons were the most consistent team in the NFC, they get beat down by the Eagles. One of the reasons the Bengals have struggled is, surprise surprise, their ineffectiveness running the ball and stopping the run (18th in both categories). My favourite betting stat: Matt Ryan is 15-1 at home.
vs Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
Straight Up: Falcons
Eagles @ Titans (-3)
The Titans looked great on Monday night, albeit against the Jags. The Eagles pounded one of the better teams in the league last weekend and Kevin Kolb looks like he will get his chance to take back the starting job. Expect a shootout.
vs Spread: Eagles (+3)
Straight Up: Eagles
Redskins @ Bears (+3)
Both these teams have striking similarities. Neither can protect the quarterback (both in the top 10 in sacks allowed). Both quarterbacks also like to throw the ball downfield. A lot of the sacks on Cutler are his own fault as he needs to throw short against overload blitzes. This is a defining game for both teams.
vs Spread: Bears (+3)
Straight Up: Bears
Browns @ Saints (-13)
The Saints looked more like their old selves last week in Tampa. The Browns have played quality teams close this year and Colt McCoy did better than I thought he would against the Steelers in his first start. Browns should cover but can't see the Saints not winning at home.
vs Spread: Browns (+13)
Straight Up: Saints
Bills @ Ravens (-13)
The Ravens have not been as good on defence but it looks as though Ed Reed is nearing a return. The Bills have been awful, but come off a bye week with an intelligent quarterback and a thiner backfield which should help with consistency. Ravens win, but Ryan Fitzpatrick and CJ Spiller make enough plays to keep it under the spread.
vs Spread: Bills (+13)
Straight Up: Ravens
Rams @ Bucs (-3)
This game showcases two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Both clubs have had up and down seasons so far, but we all can agree that they have been better that most would've expected. The Rams just seem to be jelling and have a true running back on their roster.
vs Spread: Rams (+3)
Straight Up: Rams
49ers @ Panthers (+3)
FINALLY, the Niners came through and won a football game. It wasn't very convincing and it was against the Raiders, but it's a start. The Panthers are in full rebuild mode now whereas the Niners still have an outside shot at the post-season. I hate picking them because of how pathetic they've been this year but...
vs Spread: Niners (-3)
Straight Up: Niners
Cardinals @ Seahawks (-5.5)
I wasn't as impressed with Seattle's win over Chicago as most, mainly because I don't think the Bears are all that good. The Cardinals are coming off a bye, after beating the defending world champs. Seahawks have been very good at home this season.
vs Spread: Cardinals (+5.5)
Straight Up: Seahawks
Patriots @ Chargers (-3)
The Chargers are another team that have disappointed. Losing to the Rams? C'mon! They are another team that plays much better at home, but could be without the services of Antonio Gates. The Pats didn't miss a beat after the Moss trade and are getting better every week on defence. The Chargers lead the league in offensive yards per game and defensive yards allowed.
vs Spread: Patriots (+3)
Straight Up: Patriots
Raiders @ Broncos (-8.5)
Josh McDaniels is looking smarter each day that Cutler struggles in Chicago. He refuses to hit his check downs and that is essential in McDaniels offence. Kyle Orton has no trouble and is enjoying a great year. The Raiders are playing competitive football but Mile High is one of the toughest places to play.
vs Spread: Raiders (+8.5)
Straight Up: Broncos
Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
The Prodigal son returns (again). Neither team is where they expected to be at this point in the season but the winner is going to be right in the mix at the top of the NFC North. Another week with Moss, a win to get the pressure off last week, I just think the Vikings are about to turn it up. Packers might just be a bit too banged up. Expect another shootout.
vs Spread: Vikings (+2.5)
Straight Up: Vikings
Giants @ Cowboys (-3)
The 'Boys battled last week, but ultimately could not salvage their season. I thought they played well last week and got a few less breaks than the Vikings. At home I think they will get a win for the fans.
vs Spread: Cowboys (-3)
Straight Up: Cowboys
Season Straight Up: 49-40
Season vs Spread: 38-47-4
Thursday, October 21, 2010
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
The Good - NFL stepping up
The NFL cracking down on hits to the head is essential and it is in the best interest of the players. The hit made my Brandon Meriweather (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zb1CmHk9GK0) on Todd Heap was malicious and deserves at least a one game suspension. The reality is that NFL athletes are considerably faster, stronger and larger than they were even a decade ago. It's simple physics and the NFL is wise to start cracking down on these types of cheap shots immediately.
The Bad - James Harrison
James Harrison is a tremendous football player who plays the game the way it's supposed to be played. I had no problem with either of his hits on the weekend. It was his post-fine comments I didn't like. Threatening to retire because of frustration is the equivalent of a five year old throwing a temper tantrum after being grounded. He had every right to be upset, but don't make stupid, empty threats about retiring and then on-top of it, miss practice because you're 'mulling it over'. That's a slap in the face to your teammates, especially considering Harrison returned to practice today and all seems to be forgotten. If you believe he was actually considering retirement you may have been hit one too many times by Brandon Meriweather.
The Ugly - The Fines
Should the NFL crackdown on hits to the head? Absolutely. Should Brandon Meriweather been fined and potentially suspended? Absolutely. What one word can describe Dunta Robinson's fine? Ugly. On Sunday, Kevin Kolb threw a pass to DeSean Jackson on a crossing route and Robinson hit him at full speed knocking both players to the ground (each suffered a concussion). Robinson did nothing wrong. He led with his shoulder and really had no other option if he wanted to stop Jackson. Had he gone low, Jackson might be out for the year with a devastating knee injury. In this case the NFL overreacted. The would've been better off suspending Kolb for throwing a suicide pass.
The NFL cracking down on hits to the head is essential and it is in the best interest of the players. The hit made my Brandon Meriweather (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zb1CmHk9GK0) on Todd Heap was malicious and deserves at least a one game suspension. The reality is that NFL athletes are considerably faster, stronger and larger than they were even a decade ago. It's simple physics and the NFL is wise to start cracking down on these types of cheap shots immediately.
The Bad - James Harrison
James Harrison is a tremendous football player who plays the game the way it's supposed to be played. I had no problem with either of his hits on the weekend. It was his post-fine comments I didn't like. Threatening to retire because of frustration is the equivalent of a five year old throwing a temper tantrum after being grounded. He had every right to be upset, but don't make stupid, empty threats about retiring and then on-top of it, miss practice because you're 'mulling it over'. That's a slap in the face to your teammates, especially considering Harrison returned to practice today and all seems to be forgotten. If you believe he was actually considering retirement you may have been hit one too many times by Brandon Meriweather.
The Ugly - The Fines
Should the NFL crackdown on hits to the head? Absolutely. Should Brandon Meriweather been fined and potentially suspended? Absolutely. What one word can describe Dunta Robinson's fine? Ugly. On Sunday, Kevin Kolb threw a pass to DeSean Jackson on a crossing route and Robinson hit him at full speed knocking both players to the ground (each suffered a concussion). Robinson did nothing wrong. He led with his shoulder and really had no other option if he wanted to stop Jackson. Had he gone low, Jackson might be out for the year with a devastating knee injury. In this case the NFL overreacted. The would've been better off suspending Kolb for throwing a suicide pass.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
The Move to an 18-game Schedule
If you listen to Bill Polian, GM of the Indianapolis Colts, moving to an 18-game regular season is a foregone conclusion. I know at first glance NFL fans might be excited by the notion of adding two more games to the slate and removing half of the preseason is definitely not going to ruffle any feathers. Temper your enthusiasm.
As a long-time fan of the NFL, the history of the game is important to me. Do me a favour. On Monday night, count the amount of references to NFL records there are during the MNF broadcast (with Favre playing there should be plenty).
With an 18-game schedule we will essentially be starting from scratch as far as records go. Names like Jerry Rice, Brett Favre, Eric Dickerson and Michael Strahan will slowly begin to slip from their #1 spots. The MLB has recently drawn criticism from fans who deem the 162-game season as too long. While I tend to agree with that notion, the MLB refuses to change because they value the history of the game (records). It doesn’t seem as though the NFL shares the same conviction.
Ok, so you don’t care about the history of the game. You are ecstatic about adding two more games to the season because it’s two more Sundays of hanging with the boys, fantasy football and the more NFL, the better. Well, I hate to tell you, but these two games will only make things worse. Every team plays the other teams in their division twice. Two added games is not enough for added divisional games and therefore the games will be against either conference or non-conference opponents. Not only does that mean a less than marquee matchup, it decreases the effect divisional games have on a team’s final standing (6 of 16 37.5%, 6 of 18 33.3%). As a result, the division rivalries won’t mean as much.
Still not convinced? Ask yourself how entertained you’ve been by watching the Colts the last few years in their final two weeks play with Jim Sorgi or Curtis Painter at quarterback. With an 18-game season, do undefeated and one-loss teams shut it down in after fifteen games? That would mean more meaningless games with starters on the sidelines and guys like Peyton Manning might end up with 5 weeks off.
Despite all of this, the league looks like they will make the move in the near future. Just don't let the owners fool you that it's better for the fans. It's all about the Benjamins.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
WEEK 6 Pick'em
Chargers @ Rams (+9)
Despite Phil Rivers putting up MVP numbers, the Chargers have dug themselves into a hole because of poor special teams play. The Rams don't have a real return threat and Sam Bradford just lost his favourite target for the year. Even on the road, the Chargers need to put the Rams away, convincingly.
Spread: Chargers (-9)
Straight Up: Chargers
Chiefs @ Texans (-4.5)
I doubted the Chiefs 3-0 start, but the way they played the Colts proved to me that they are for real. The 'Patriots of the West' were able to hold Peyton Manning in check so there is no reason to believe they can't do the same to Matt Schaub. The Texans have been wildly inconsistent and even though their at home, I'll go with the team that's been playing solid football all year.
Spread: Chiefs (+4.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs
Ravens @ Patriots (-2.5)
The much anticipated rematch from last year's playoff battle is one of the better games on the slate this weekend. The Ravens looked a lot better last week and I know everyone is freaking about the loss of Randy Moss. Part of me wants to pick the Ravens, but I have one rule I live by: Never bet against Bill Belichick coming off a bye week.
Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
Straight Up: Patriots
Saints @ Buccaneers (+4.5)
It's no surprise that the Saints aren't playing like they did last year. Super Bowl teams rarely are the same for a number of reasons (shortened offseason due to media/public relations commitments) and teams have had a whole year to analyze what made their offence tick last year. The Bucs are coming off a bye and upset the Bengals 2 weeks ago.
Spread: Buccaneers (+4.5)
Straight Up: Saints
Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5)
The Falcons have been the best and most consistent team in the NFC. The Eagles have looked good as well, but they let a bad Niners offence back into the game last Sunday night. The Falcons are good everywhere, including special teams.
Spread: Falcons (+2.5)
Straight Up: Falcons
Lions @ Giants (-10)
The Lions proved that they are no longer in the basement of the NFL by crushing the St. Louis Rams. They have been in every game this season against the NFL elite and I have no reason to believe this game will be any different against another team who is inconsistent on offence.
Spread: Lions (+10)
Straight Up: Lions
Seahawks @ Bears (-6.5)
Somehow the Bears won last week even though their starting quarterback was picked off 4 times and threw for less than 50 yards. The Bears have been very solid on defence and Jay Cutler is back this week. Seattle plays a lot better at home than they do on the road.
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
Straight Up: Bears
Browns @ Steelers (-14)
Big Ben returns this week and the Steelers offence should put up 21+ on the Browns. The best defence in football going up against a rookie quarterback with no offensive weapons outside of Peyton Hillis is a recipe for a shutout.
Spread: Steelers (-14)
Straight Up: Steelers
Dolphins @ Packers (-3)
It sounds like Aaron Rodgers will be good to go for this one, but the Pack will be without Jermichael Finley for the season. The Packers still have enough talent to beat the Dolphins at Lambeau.
Spread: Packers (-3)
Straight Up: Packers
Jets @ Broncos (+3.5)
The Jets haven't looked great against the pass this season and Kyle Orton is playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL right now. The Jets will run the ball and try and control the clock but Orton will find open receivers and keep this one close.
Spread: Broncos (+3.5)
Straight Up: Jets
Raiders @ Niners (-7)
Vegas is still giving the Niners a ton of credit. At 0-5, it's ridiculous that this line is at -7. The Raiders have played hard-nosed competitive football and the Niners have shown me nothing to warrant picking them yet.
Spread: Raiders (+7)
Straight Up: Raiders
Cowboys @ Vikings (-1.5)
How things have changed since August. One of these teams will be all but finished come Sunday night. There is no chance that Favre misses a game due to tendonitis, but Brad Childress would be wise to give AP 30 touches. If it was in Dallas, I'd be picking Dallas....
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
Straight Up: Vikings
Colts @ Redskins (+3)
Peyton Manning in primetime?
Spread: Colts (-3)
Straight Up: Colts
Titans @ Jaguars (+3)
The Titans are simply a much more talented/deep football team than the Jags. Look for Kenny Britt and Vince Young to have big games.
Spread: Titans (-3)
Straight Up: Titans
Season Straight Up: 42-33
Season vs Spread: 31-40-4
Despite Phil Rivers putting up MVP numbers, the Chargers have dug themselves into a hole because of poor special teams play. The Rams don't have a real return threat and Sam Bradford just lost his favourite target for the year. Even on the road, the Chargers need to put the Rams away, convincingly.
Spread: Chargers (-9)
Straight Up: Chargers
Chiefs @ Texans (-4.5)
I doubted the Chiefs 3-0 start, but the way they played the Colts proved to me that they are for real. The 'Patriots of the West' were able to hold Peyton Manning in check so there is no reason to believe they can't do the same to Matt Schaub. The Texans have been wildly inconsistent and even though their at home, I'll go with the team that's been playing solid football all year.
Spread: Chiefs (+4.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs
Ravens @ Patriots (-2.5)
The much anticipated rematch from last year's playoff battle is one of the better games on the slate this weekend. The Ravens looked a lot better last week and I know everyone is freaking about the loss of Randy Moss. Part of me wants to pick the Ravens, but I have one rule I live by: Never bet against Bill Belichick coming off a bye week.
Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
Straight Up: Patriots
Saints @ Buccaneers (+4.5)
It's no surprise that the Saints aren't playing like they did last year. Super Bowl teams rarely are the same for a number of reasons (shortened offseason due to media/public relations commitments) and teams have had a whole year to analyze what made their offence tick last year. The Bucs are coming off a bye and upset the Bengals 2 weeks ago.
Spread: Buccaneers (+4.5)
Straight Up: Saints
Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5)
The Falcons have been the best and most consistent team in the NFC. The Eagles have looked good as well, but they let a bad Niners offence back into the game last Sunday night. The Falcons are good everywhere, including special teams.
Spread: Falcons (+2.5)
Straight Up: Falcons
Lions @ Giants (-10)
The Lions proved that they are no longer in the basement of the NFL by crushing the St. Louis Rams. They have been in every game this season against the NFL elite and I have no reason to believe this game will be any different against another team who is inconsistent on offence.
Spread: Lions (+10)
Straight Up: Lions
Seahawks @ Bears (-6.5)
Somehow the Bears won last week even though their starting quarterback was picked off 4 times and threw for less than 50 yards. The Bears have been very solid on defence and Jay Cutler is back this week. Seattle plays a lot better at home than they do on the road.
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
Straight Up: Bears
Browns @ Steelers (-14)
Big Ben returns this week and the Steelers offence should put up 21+ on the Browns. The best defence in football going up against a rookie quarterback with no offensive weapons outside of Peyton Hillis is a recipe for a shutout.
Spread: Steelers (-14)
Straight Up: Steelers
Dolphins @ Packers (-3)
It sounds like Aaron Rodgers will be good to go for this one, but the Pack will be without Jermichael Finley for the season. The Packers still have enough talent to beat the Dolphins at Lambeau.
Spread: Packers (-3)
Straight Up: Packers
Jets @ Broncos (+3.5)
The Jets haven't looked great against the pass this season and Kyle Orton is playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL right now. The Jets will run the ball and try and control the clock but Orton will find open receivers and keep this one close.
Spread: Broncos (+3.5)
Straight Up: Jets
Raiders @ Niners (-7)
Vegas is still giving the Niners a ton of credit. At 0-5, it's ridiculous that this line is at -7. The Raiders have played hard-nosed competitive football and the Niners have shown me nothing to warrant picking them yet.
Spread: Raiders (+7)
Straight Up: Raiders
Cowboys @ Vikings (-1.5)
How things have changed since August. One of these teams will be all but finished come Sunday night. There is no chance that Favre misses a game due to tendonitis, but Brad Childress would be wise to give AP 30 touches. If it was in Dallas, I'd be picking Dallas....
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
Straight Up: Vikings
Colts @ Redskins (+3)
Peyton Manning in primetime?
Spread: Colts (-3)
Straight Up: Colts
Titans @ Jaguars (+3)
The Titans are simply a much more talented/deep football team than the Jags. Look for Kenny Britt and Vince Young to have big games.
Spread: Titans (-3)
Straight Up: Titans
Season Straight Up: 42-33
Season vs Spread: 31-40-4
Saturday, October 9, 2010
WEEK 5 Pick'em
Broncos @ Ravens (-7)
The return of Ed Reed can’t come soon enough for a struggling Ravens pass defense. Part of the reason I think Hillis ran so well against Baltimore was because the Ravens needed to play their safeties more in coverage. Broncos can’t run the ball at all but sure can pass.
Spread: Broncos +7
Straight Up: Ravens
Jags @ Bills (-1)
This has to be the least entertaining game of the weekend. The Jags pulled off the upset last week and their secondary didn’t look terrible. CJ Spiller will get more touches now that Marshawn has been moved. Jags win a close one.
Spread: Jags +1
Straight Up: Jags
Chiefs @ Colts (-7)
The Chiefs have a lot of explosion players (McCluster/Arenas/Charles) and a guy who can pound the rock (Thomas Jones). Eric Berry will be a great player in this league but he is about to find out what it’s like to play a guy like Peyton Manning.
Spread: Colts -7
Straight Up: Colts
Rams @ Lions (-3)
Both these teams have been playing tough football and it is nice to see them moving in the right direction. The Rams have a few wins this season, the Lions deserve one and will feed off a home crowd that sees a rare opportunity in which their team is favoured.
Spread: Lions -3
Straight Up: Lions
Falcons @ Browns (+3)
The Falcons found a way to win over the Niners last week and that is what separates the contenders from the pretenders. The Browns have played some pretenders tough, but the Falcons have big aspirations and are a very balanced football team.
Spread: Falcons -3
Straight Up: Falcons
Buccaneers @ Bengals (-6.5)
Carson looked better last week and the Bengals get a home game to try and make up for an inexcusable loss to the Browns. The Bucs are coming off a bye week, which is always dangerous, but I just don’t think they have the experience to win this one on the road.
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)
Straight Up: Bengals
Bears @ Panthers (-1)
Julius Peppers returns to Carolina but the Bears have Todd Collins at the helm and have not been able to run the ball behind a weak offensive line. The Panthers have a strong defense and they CAN run the ball. Peppers will want to have a big game, but Jordan Gross is one of the best tackles in the game.
Spread: Panthers (-1)
Straight Up: Panthers
Packers @ Redskins (+2.5)
The Packers haven’t looked good in their last two games (loss to Bears, close win over the Lions). I’m going to pick them this week based on the fact that they just need to get it going. If they lose here, with tough games in the coming month, the Super Bowl hype should be put on hold.
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
Straight Up: Packers
Giants @ Texans (-3)
The Giants looked awful on offence against the Bears. The Texans get Brian Cushing back this weekend and are just a better team than the Giants right now, with or without Andre Johnson.
Spread: Texans (-3)
Straight Up: Texans
Saints @ Cardinals (+7)
Undrafted rookie Max Hall starts for the Cardinals this week at quarterback. Last time I checked Drew Brees was still the quarterback for the Saints. Brees>Hall.
Spread: Saints (-7)
Straight Up: Saints
Chargers @ Raiders (+6)
The Chargers always seem to get off to a slow start but now look like they are hitting their stride. Do the Raiders line Asomugha up over Gates? McFadden is out and the Raiders offence can’t score in lockstep with Rivers.
Spread: Chargers (-6)
Straight Up: Chargers
Titans @ Cowboys (-7)
Dallas, coming off a bye week, should be ready for the visiting Titans. The Schedule gets much more difficult after this and if they want any hope of playing at home in the Super Bowl, they need this win. The Titans haven’t given Chris Johnson a lot of help on offence and therefore he has 22 eyes on him at all times.
Eagles @ 49ers (-3.5)
Kevin Kolb returns as the starter for the Eagles. The ‘Niners either get blown out, or give games away. This one shouldn’t be any different. Time to give David Carr the ball in San Fran.
Spread: Eagles (+3.5)
Straight Up: Eagles
Vikings @ Jets (-4)
It’s funny that Revis is still chirping Randy Moss after getting lit up for not only one of the nicest TD’s of the year, but also pulling his Hamstring trying to keep up with him. Slouch? Randy will be out to prove to New England why they shouldn’t have let him go and this will make things easier on AP. Jets are playing well, but on Monday Night, I’ll go with Favre.
Spread: Vikings (+4)
Straight Up: Vikings
Season Straight Up: 37-25
Season vs Spread: 26-32-4
Friday, October 1, 2010
Week 4 Pick'em
Broncos @ Titans (-6.5)
The Broncos are averaging 350 yards per game (#1 in the NFL). The Titans have the #5 ranked pass defense, but have faced Dennis Dixon, Jason Campbell and Eli Manning. Chris Johnson will need to carry the ball early and often so that they can keep the Broncos offence on the sideline. Bet on the over and the Titans pull out a close one at home.
Spread: Broncos (+6.5)
Straight Up: Titans
Ravens @ Steelers (-1.5)
Two teams that epitomize toughness face off in what will be a hard-hitting affair. Even though it’s in Pittsburgh I think the Steelers are a little too satisfied at being 3-0 and the Ravens know they need to take advantage of Roethlisberger’s suspension. I give the slight edge to the Steelers on D but the Ravens get the big edge on O.
Spread: Ravens (+1.5)
Straight Up: Ravens
Bengals @ Browns (+3)
The Bengals passing offence has been out of sync so far this year, but they run the bell well and play tough defense. The Browns ran the bell well against the Ravens last week so there’s no reason to think they can’t repeat the performance against the Bengals. Bengals have too much talent and potential to lose to the Browns.
Spread: Bengals (-3)
Straight Up: Bengals
Lions @ Packers (-14.5)
Jahvid Best is not 100% and Shaun Hill is going to need to score a lot of points to stay in the game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers high-octane offence. The Packers beat themselves on Monday Night with all their penalties and they need this divisional win.
Spread: Packers (-14.5)
Straight Up: Packers
Panthers @ Saints (-13.5)
The Saints should’ve won last week in overtime if not for Garrett Hartley’s shank. That being said they haven’t looked like the ’09 Saints. They’re at home for the third time in four weeks. With Clausen at QB, the Panthers will run to try and control the clock which won’t leave enough time for the Saints to cover the spread.
Spread: Panthers (+13.5)
Straight Up: Saints
Niners @ Falcons (-7)
The Preseason darlings have coming crashing down to earth. A loss to the Chiefs resulted in the firing of offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. The emergence of Jason Snelling will help keep Michael Turner healthy. The Niners couldn’t handle the pressure but the Falcons look like they can.
Spread: Falcons (-7)
Straight Up: Falcons
Seahawks @ Rams (+1)
Congratulations to Sam Bradford on getting his first win as an NFL quarterback. The Seahawks beat a good Chargers team last week even though Phil Rivers threw for the most yards in his career. Bradford should do well but without Stephen Jackson, the Rams will be hard pressed to stay with Seattle.
Spread: Seahawks (-1)
Straight Up: Seahawks
Jets @ Bills (+5.5)
This line is nowhere near where it should be. The Jets defense is much better than the Patriots who allowed 30 points last week. The Jets offence isn’t up to the Patriots level yet but it’s close. This game won’t be.
Spread: Jets (-5.5)
Straight Up: Jets
Colts @ Jaguars (+7)
Even in a week 1 loss, Peyton Manning was outstanding. He has a quarterback rating of 116.9 and has thrown 9 touchdowns with no interceptions this year. Oh, did I mention the Jags haven’t stopped anyone through the air and have the 28th ranked pass defense. In his last three games against the Jags, Manning has had completion percentages of 76.7, 73.7 and 85.3. Did somebody say blowout?
Spread: Colts (-7)
Straight Up: Colts
Texans @ Raiders (+3)
The Raiders have played the pass well so far this year and the Texans may be without Andre Johnson. In my opinion the Texans are still the classic underachievers and this is the type of game that they should win, but I have a feeling they won’t.
Spread: Raiders (+3)
Straight Up: Raiders
Cardinals @ Chargers (-8)
The Cardinals lost so many players this offseason you can’t really blame Coach Ken Whisenhunt for getting off to a rough start. The Chargers are 1-2 and I’m still picking them to win the AFC West. That means they need to win this one. I’ll take Phil Rivers over Derek Anderson every time.
Spread: Chargers (-8)
Straight Up: Chargers
Redskins @ Eagles (-5.5)
Will it be boos or cheers for Donovan McNabb when he returns to Philly for the first time as a visitor? Mike Vick has made everyone forget about him and whether it’s boos or cheers at first, when the game starts the Philly crowd will bring the noise. I want to pick the Redskins because I think McNabb will play extremely well and he wants a win more than anything, however the Eagles have too many weapons on offence.
Spread: Redskins (+5.5)
Straight Up: Eagles
Bears @ Giants (-4)
The last unbeaten in the NFC is….the Bears? Jay Cutler benefitted a great deal from penalties called on the Packers as he had more than one interception called back. The Giants are a team in turmoil and the Bears are playing with confidence. Brian Urlacher is playing at a high level, as is the entire Chicago defense.
Spread: Bears (+4)
Straight Up: Bears
Patriots @ Dolphins (+1)
I want to take a second and thank the NFL for scheduling great primetime games so far this season. This game should be another classic. Chad Henne started slow but played well last week and should get chances to make plays against the Patriots secondary. That being said I have too much confidence in Tom Brady in primetime games.
Spread: Patriots (-1)
Straight Up: Patriots
Season Straight Up: 30-18
Season vs Spread: 19-25-4
-Jansen-
Season vs Spread: 19-25-4
-Jansen-
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