NFL "GM" Mock Draft 2012

It's my favourite day of the NFL calendar - Draft day.  I get tired of reading Mock Drafts that are simply predictions of what teams WILL do.  Not only is it impossible to know what every GM is thinking, but who cares if you got it right?  The real way to mock is to play GM for each of the 32 teams.  Once you make a pick, transition to the next team and analyze who is on the board.  Here is my 2nd annual GM MOCK DRAFT illustrating what I would do as the GM for each pick in the 1st round.  

#1 Indianapolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

The worst kept secret in history will officially be made public on Thursday night.  The Colts did not get rid of Peyton Manning to draft anyone else.  You’ve heard it a million times – Luck is the best QB prospect to come along in decades.   Barring some outlier event, he will give Indianapolis fans the best 20 years of quarterback play in the history of the NFL.  A first overall pick with the last name Luck playing with a horseshoe on his helmet – how does the NFL come up with this stuff?

#2 Washington Redskins – QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor)

Bottom line: no one was going to unseat Luck as the #1 pick in the draft.  That being said, RGIII gave a valiant effort.  Through five games last season Griffin had more Touchdowns than incompletions.  Unlike Luck whose passing overshadows his athleticism, it’s Griffin’s athleticism that overshadows his abilities in the pocket.  RGIII ran a sub 4.4 forty and is taller than many expected (6’2).  He is accurate and poised in the pocket which makes him a dual-threat QB that is likely to have success.  The Redskins mortgaged their future to move up from #6 to #2 to grab Griffin, he will be the pick.

#3 Minnesota Vikings – OT Matt Kalil (USC)

The consensus choice seems to be Kalil and for good reason.  He is the premier LT in the 2012 draft class and could wind up as a perennial Pro Bowler.  Something that factors into the decision is his NFL bloodlines (older brother Ryan plays for Carolina and has been to the Pro Bowl the last 3 years).  Protecting Christian Ponder is important, but helping AP out is of equal importance.

#4 Cleveland Browns – RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

This pick fits very well.  The Browns have a solid offensive line (albeit a few holes), but absolutely zero playmakers.  Last year’s second round pick WR Greg Little is a good player and will be a nice #2 receiver in due time.  The Browns lost Peyton Hillis to Kansas City in free agency and they do not have anyone on their current roster that deserves more than 5 carries a game.  Adding Richardson would take an enormous amount of pressure off Colt McCoy and would allow the Browns to play a more ball control style offense – something that would benefit their defense which is emerging as a very good unit.  Richardson can do it all, and his receiving skills are perfect for the West Coast offense.

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

Tampa Bay has done a fantastic job retooling their team via the draft and free agency.  The receiver position is set with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams.  They improved their offensive line tremendously by adding All World guard Carl Nicks in free agency.  The biggest area of need is the secondary and it just so happens that the best player available is the top corner in the draft.  Ronde Barber might not last the season and Aqib Talib’s legal issues cloud his situation.  Considering how much the Bucs improved, they should expect to be playing with a lead more this year.  That means they better be able to cover.  

#6 St. Louis Rams – WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

The Rams have set themselves up for success by trading down and adding a king’s ransom of draft picks from the Redskins.  It’s time to give Sam Bradford some weapons and Blackmon is just that.  Blackmon doesn’t have the ceiling of a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green, but he has the work ethic and talent to be a legitimate #1 receiver in the NFL.  The Rams have a number of guys who can be effective in the slot and TE positions, and adding Blackmon should generate more favourable matchups for guys like Danny Amendola and Lance Kendricks.

#7 Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)

The Jags should trade down here as there is no value for them.  Their pick should be coveted by someone looking to move ahead of Miami at #8 to draft QB Ryan Tannehill.  The Jags have traditionally focused on linemen in the first round.  How’s that worked out for them so far?  The Jags offense has one skill player in RB Maurice Jones-Drew.  Blaine Gabbert struggled as a rookie, but the front office gave him a ringing endorsement by not trading for Tim Tebow.  The only way he is going to succeed is if he gets an influx of talent.  Floyd is a big play receiver who can stretch the field (similar to Vincent Jackson). I understand the importance of linemen in the NFL, but the Jags need to start drafting some skilled guys – they have neglected that area for far too long.  

#8 Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

Is Tannehill a franchise QB?  If he is, he will require a full year to develop.  If it was any other team, I wouldn’t pick Tannehill, but the Dolphins are in a unique position as they just signed Mike Sherman to be their offensive coordinator.  Sherman was Tannehill’s head coach at Texas A&M.  If Tannehill is going to have success, it will be in Miami as he will be with a coach that he is familiar with and who has gotten top level production from him in college.  If I’m the GM in Miami, I ask Sherman if we should take him.  It’s that easy.  

#9 Carolina Panthers - DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State)

The Panthers need to improve their defensive line and Cox is the guy to do it.  He is a hulking presence on the interior and has played against solid competition in the SEC.  His stock has risen lately because scouts are beginning to realize that the reason he didn’t stand out as much on film is because he was constantly double-teamed by opposing offensive linemen.  

#10 Buffalo Bills – SS Mark Barron (Alabama)

The signing of Mario Williams changed the outlook for the Buffalo Bills.  They now possess one of, if not the most dominant defensive line in the NFL.  Opposing quarterbacks will be under pressure and the best way to compliment a ferocious pass rush is with a secondary that can cover.  Adding the top safety in the draft might be a bit high at #10, but the fit is too perfect.  The bills face Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez twice a year.  Barron would help limit their production.  Offensive line is a need but I believe they can grab a guy like Cordy Glenn or Mike Adams in the 2^ndround.  

#11 Kansas City Chiefs – LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)

Kuechly is a higher rated prospect than a number of guys that have gone before him.  He plays a position that doesn’t carry a lot of value, but he shouldn’t make it out of the top 15.  Inside linebacker is a need along with NT and CB.  Kuechly is the best player available and also fills a need.  Coach Romeo Crennel will get the most out of Kuechly.  

#12 Seattle Seahawks – DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)

The Seahawks need a pass rusher and Ingram can be that 4-3 end.  Quinton Coples is physically better, but Ingram works harder and has more consistent film.  Both of these guys would solve the issue on Seattle’s defensive line, but Ingram seems like the safer pick and they have similar talent.

#13 Arizona Cardinals – OG David DeCastro (Stanford)

Bottom line, the Cardinals are going to get a good value player at #13.  The Cardinals have to upgrade their offensive line and if they take Riley Reiff here to fill the bigger need at tackle they aren’t wrong.  DeCastro is one of the better guard prospects to enter the draft in quite some time.  I prefer the game changing DeCastro over the steady Reiff.  Offensive line coach and Hall of Famer guard Russ Grimm will get the maximum production out of DeCastro.

#14 Dallas Cowboys – CB Stephon Gilmore (Alabama)

If the Cardinals draft DeCastro, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Jerry Jones offers this pick and an additional mid-round pick for DeCastro.  The Cardinals could then use this selection on Reiff.  The Cowboys focused on retooling their secondary by adding Brandon Carr in free agency.  Although safety is more of a need than corner, Gilmore could compete with Mike Jenkins for the starting spot opposite Brandon Carr.  In today’s NFL, there is no such thing as having too many good corners.

#15 Philadelphia Eagles – DT Dontari Poe (Memphis)

The Eagles don’t really have a ton of needs to fill, which really highlights how much they underachieved last season.  Areas they would look to improve are safety and linebacker, but the guys left on the board don’t fit from a value/scheme standpoint.  The Eagles are positioned perfectly to take a chance on a high risk/reward prospect like Poe.  At 6’4 348 pounds, Poe ran the 40 in 4.98 and benched 225lbs 44 times.  His physical tools are Pro Bowl caliber, but his production at Memphis did not match his talent.  Poe will be surrounded by high motor guys in Philadelphia and the payoff from a risk standpoint is solid at #15.

#16 New York Jets – DE/OLB Chandler Jones (Syracuse)

While he might not be a household name playing at Syracuse, his brother certainly is.  Chandler is the younger brother of Jon “Bones” Jones, the UFC Heavyweight Champion.  If you are familiar with his body of work, you shouldn’t have any questions about Chandler’s athleticism.  Jones won’t be a guy that makes an immediate impact, but he could develop into a very special pass rusher if coached well.

#17 Cincinnati Bengals – CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

The Bengals are a team on the rise.  With the first of their two picks in the 1^st round, they fill the void that was created when Jonathan Joseph left last summer.  Leon Hall is coming off injury and even if he returns to form, they need a guy across from him that isn’t Pacman Jones.  Kirkpatrick is a tall, well-built corner who can tackle well in run support.  

#18 San Diego Chargers – DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)

The Chargers have seen their team deteriorate over the last few years.  They need help in a number of areas.  I would start by adding a versatile pass rusher like Upshaw.  They could target Riley Reiff if they believe Tackle is a greater need.  Upshaw is a polished prospect who not only can, but has played both defensive end and linebacker at a high level.

#19 Chicago Bears – DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina)

One of the toughest decisions was deciding between Coples and Reiff for the Bears.  On the one hand Reiff could pair with last year’s first round pick Gabe Carimi to shore up the Bears offensive line.  On the other hand, Coples could be a perfect fit in Chicago.  He is the prototypical 4-3 end and on talent alone, should be a top 5 pick.  His effort was inconsistent in college but Julius Peppers, also a former Tar Heel, could be a great mentor.  The Chicago defense is not lacking leadership and I believe it is the right environment for Coples.

#20 Tennessee Titans – DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

Brockers is young but has a lot of upside.  The Titans need to retool their defensive line and Brockers is a great building block on the interior.  The Titans could trade down as well as they don’t have a ton of glaring holes, and should focus more on acquiring talent, regardless of position.

#21 Cincinnati Bengals – WR Kendall Wright (Baylor)

The Bengals hit a home run with AJ Green last year.  He has already established himself as one of the NFL’s best receivers and has a great rapport with fellow rookie QB Andy Dalton.  The Bengals #2 receiver right now is Jordan Shipley.  Drafting Wright would allow Shipley to move to the slot where he is more effective.  If Wright is as billed, the Bengals won’t have to worry about adding receiver help for quite some time.  

#22 Cleveland Browns – OT Riley Reiff (Iowa)

The Browns are lucky that a player of Reiff’s caliber falls to #22.  He is a polished technician who will be solid on the right side (think Bryan Bulaga – fellow Hawkeye first rounder from 2 years ago).  If the Browns draft Trent Richardson as I believe they should, it’s worth drafting Reiff here to make sure Trent has as much help as he can get.  This pick also ensures that if and when the Browns find their franchise quarterback, he will be well protected.

#23 Detroit Lions – OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

At long last, the Lions finally draft an offensive tackle – and a good one in Martin.  Not much point discussing other options here.  The Lions greatest need is offensive line and Martin is good value at #23.  The only other guy I considered is Janoris Jenkins, but Martin is the safer, and better pick.

#24 Pittsburgh Steelers – ILB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)

The Steelers could go a number of different ways with this pick.  The offensive line needs improvement, but adding Hightower to a linebacking corps that includes James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons is a dynamite move.  Kevin Zeitler or Cordy Glenn would be the offensive line options here if they go that way.

#25 Denver Broncos – DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)

Worthy is a load in the middle of the defense and can eat up double teams for the Broncos.  He isn’t an explosive pass rusher, but he can do everything else and has great film against top offensive linemen in this draft class from the Big Ten.  Peyton can handle the offense; they need to allow their defense to take the next step after finishing strong last season.

#26 Houston Texans – WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)

Andre Johnson will continue to get double teamed until Houston has a player opposite him that command respect.  Hill is raw, but has the height and speed to make an impact early as he develops into a more complete player.  The Texans offense is good, but if they want to make a run, they need another receiving threat on the outside.

#27 New England Patriots – OLB Shea Mclellin (Boise State)

Mclellin is a perfect fit for the Patriots multiply scheme front.  He fits best as a 3-4 OLB but will rest assured Bill Belichick will get the most out of this high energy player.  The Patriots have few, if any needs on the offensive side of the ball, and manufacturing pressure will be vital, especially after losing Andre Carter and Mark Anderson.

#28 Green Bay Packers – DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)

The Packers would love to get Mclellin as he fits perfectly with what they do on defense.  He’s not available so they take the next best edge player in the draft.  Mercilus can play either OLB or DE in the 3-4 and will be moved around based on down and distance.  The Packers need to find people to create pressure on opposing QB’s.

#29 Baltimore Ravens – C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

Even if current Centre Matt Birk plays next year, it will be his last.  Peter Konz isn’t as good as the Pouncey brothers, but he is a very smart player and has a lot of ability.  It isn’t a flashy pick, but the Ravens need a new leader on the offensive line, Konz can play guard this year and then take over at centre next season.

#30 San Francisco 49ers – CB Janoris Jenkins (Northern Alabama)

Jenkins is the most talented corner in this year’s draft.  He has all the tools to be an elite shutdown corner in the NFL.  His problems are off the field as he was kicked off the team at Florida.  Jenkins career will largely be dictated by his personal growth and the people he surrounds himself with.  Something tells me Jim Harbaugh is the right guy to lead him.

#31 New England Patriots – DE Nick Perry (USC)

The Patriots offense is Super Bowl ready.  They need to focus on adding defensive talent and combining Perry with Mclellin will give Belichick a pair of talented pass rushers.  In reality the Patriots will likely trade this pick to a team moving up for a QB like Brandon Weeden.  

#32 New York Giants – OT/G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)

Everyone has the TE Fleener going to the Giants and he’s a valid option.  I just don’t think he’s a first round talent and the Giants can add a capable TE in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.  Glenn is versatile and exactly what the Giants need to ensure that they have depth upfront. 

Manning to the Broncos: Immediate Reaction

John Elway got his man. Peyton Manning will become the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos after the final details of a deal can be ironed out. After a few weeks of soul searching, recruiting visits and workouts, it appears that Manning chose familiarity over offensive talent. His relationship with Elway and head coach John Fox propelled him to the mile high city.

It's a surprising choice, given the other teams that were in the hunt.  The 49ers are better than the Broncos at every position.  They gave Manning the best chance to win Super Bowls immediately.  The Titans are in his old division and have more talent than the Broncos as well.  In the end, none of that mattered to Peyton.

It's not all bad.  Manning joins a team with a top 15 defense, a solid offensive line and a young receiver who is emerging as a potential star. The Broncos surely aren’t done as they will look to add additional weapons for Manning. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark could both in the mix as the Broncos do not have an abundance of talent at the WR and TE positions. Jeff Saturday could also be added to help the offensive line learn Manning’s nuances and verbiage at the line of scrimmage.

The bottom line is if Manning is healthy the Broncos are the favourite to win the AFC West. It won’t come easy with the Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs all fielding competitive squads, but the Broncos won the division last year, and the addition of Manning is good for a few more wins in 2012.

The question now becomes what happens to Tim Tebow? In all likelihood he will be traded, but it remains to be seen what teams will have interest. It’s an extremely unfortunate situation for Tebow, but you can’t blame John Elway or the Broncos for making this move. They acquired one of the best quarterbacks of all time and anytime you have the chance to do that, you have to pull the trigger.  You can bet that Manning will be fielding a lot of "Tebow" questions when he finally addresses the media.  Expect him to be prepared well for this - as usual.

It will undoubtedly be a weird locker room dynamic after the team rallied around Tebow’s magic to go from 1-4 to a home playoff victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Manning understands what he is getting into and it might take all of about 30 minutes for the team to get on board with Peyton as the new captain of the ship.

It’s ok to feel bad for Tebow but we’ve seen this script before. It’s not the first time he’s been written off after proving himself. They doubted him in high school, said he couldn’t be effective in the SEC, and claimed he would have to change positions in the NFL. After he proved the doubters wrong, he was finally given an endorsement from Elway who stated Tebow would be the starter going into the 2012 season. Guess that could still happen but with another team.

Tebow’s dog is named Bronco - perhaps he changes its name to Manning and puts one of those satellite dish neck braces on him permanently. All jokes aside, maybe this will work out for the best. Assuming a team trades for him, it will indicate that they believe in him and want him to be their guy. The Broncos never did, but were forced into playing him because he won games. If we’ve learned anything from Tim over the years it’s that adversity fuels him. He’ll be back, and this time with an organization that believes in him just as much as his teammates do.

Super Bowl Pre-Kickoff Analysis

Why you shouldn't bet on the Patriots

- They only won 2 games this year over teams with a winning record (Broncos & Ravens last week)

- They have the 31st ranked defence 

- Star TE Rob Gronkowski is playing on a severely injured ankle

- They've lost to a very similar Giants team 4 years ago

Why you should bet on the Patriots

- You may have heard of their QB, Tom Brady

- Their Coach isn't too bad either (also one of the all time greats)

- They rarely lose when given a shot at 'redemption'

- They're better prepared for the Giants pass rush than in 2007

Why you shouldn't bet on the Giants

- Their secondary is suspect and haven't covered very well throughout the playoffs

- They are the Vegas underdogs (never wrong to take the favourite)

- Despite Manning, their offence isn't as good as the Patriots

Why you should bet on the Giants

- Eli Manning has been the best in the 4th quarter this season

- The Giants have a better defence than the Patriots

- They match-up well against the Patriots on offence

My Picks?

The Patriots aren't as good as they were in 2007.  The Giants are actually slightly better than they were in 2007.  So why am I picking the Patriots?  Because in 2007, The Pats offence was predicated on Randy Moss going deep.  That took too much time and the Giants pass rush was able to get to Brady 5 times.  Now, the Patriots offence is built around quick passes and features the two great young Tight Ends.  Match-ups are key and Brady will utilize the quick passing game to neutralize the Giants pass rush.  Expect a lot of balance on both sides right from the get go.

Patriots 33  Giants 30

Prop picks:
MVP: Tom Brady
Non-QB MVP: Victor Cruz
Team to score first: Giants
Player to score first: Brandon Jacobs

Enjoy!

Top 10 Greatest QB's of All Time

Without a doubt, Super Bowl XLVI is going to be the most hyped sporting events in recent memory. The game features a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl and includes two of the largest markets in the world of Sports. I’ve already seen numerous headlines such as “Brady’s Revenge”, “The Rematch” and my personal favourite, “Brady and Eliath Round 2”.


Although both will deny it vehemently using robotic phrases such as “We’re only concerned with winning this game”, “I don't pay attention to what people are saying” and “It’s an honour even to be mentioned with those guys”, their quarterback legacies are on the line.

For Eli Manning, it’s a stepping stone. With at least five years left in his prime, Eli has the opportunity to get his 2nd Super Bowl ring. For context, consider that 19 different Quarterbacks have won a single Super Bowl. Only 10 have won it multiple times. He has proven this year that he is an elite quarterback and with a win, would solidify himself as one of the top 25 passers in the history of the game. People will claim he should be considered better than Peyton (which is pure insanity if you ask me), others will say even with his ring(s) he isn’t in the top 25. The critical thing with Eli is that he has a few prime years left in him. With the Giants talent, it’s not unreasonable to think that he could wind up with 3 rings (only four QBs have that many), in which case we would need to rethink the argument.

On the other side of the field, Tom Brady has the chance to establish himself as the greatest of all time. A win would put him in a three-way tie for most rings ever with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. Bradshaw has the rings but rarely cracks the top 5 list of greats as he won with the aid of an outstanding supporting cast and defense. That leaves us with Montana and Brady. Tom will have the more gaudy numbers having played in the pass heavy era. Montana will be remembered as mister clutch, having never lost the big game (something Brady has already done). A loss for Brady would essentially eliminate him from the discussion and leave Montana alone at the top. It would prove that Brady is vulnerable (2 Super Bowl losses to the same team), and draw attention to his lack of playoff success in the latter half of his career.

Regardless of where you land on the above arguments, one thing is certain: this Super Bowl has everyone talking about who the greatest QBs of all time are and how we go about quantifying and substantiating that group. In my opinion, rings matter, but only so much. They matter enough to push Tom Brady ahead of Peyton Manning, but no one is going to sit there and say that Trent Dilfer was better than Dan Marino for getting a ring. The best way to come up with this list is put yourself in the following hypothetical scenario:

- You are the GM of an NFL Franchise
- Every player in the league is a free agent (no one is on your roster)
- You have the first pick of free agents and it must be a quarterback
- Every player of all time is 25 years old and in perfect health
- Contracts don’t matter
- Whoever you decide to pick will play in their respective era. (If you pick Brady it will be the 2000’s. If you pick Bart Starr it will be the 1960’s. The offensive systems of that time will be prominent.

With that in mind, here's the order the guys come off the board:

1. Joe Montana
Until Brady wins his 4th, Joe’s still the king of the mountain. His record four Super Bowl Championships all came as a direct result of his superior play. Critics will say that he had Jerry Rice and Bill Walsh at the helm, but it was still on Joe to execute and make the necessary plays to win games. Something he did on such a consistent basis that it looked easy.

2. Tom Brady
I’ll say it right off the bat – If Brady wins the Super Bowl, he jumps to #1 on my list. Brady has had talented targets but no one like Rice (voted #1 NFL Player of all time). In today’s NFL, he is the prototypical quarterback. A guy who can make all the calls at the line, make every throw and is at his best with the game on the line. Love him or hate him, appreciate the fact that we are watching one of, if not the greatest of all time.

3. Peyton Manning
I’m sure people will disagree with this one, but based on the criteria above, it’s an easy decision. Manning hasn’t won the rings, but his legacy only grew this season with how awful the Colts did without him. Remember that the Patriots won 11 games without Tom Brady a few years ago. I’ll take Peyton third overall and build a better team around him. His inability to consistently win the big games drops him below Brady, but Manning changed the quarterback position forever.


4. Johnny Unitas
Johnny U was the most dominant passer of his era. He only won one Super Bowl, but he also grabbed two NFL Championships prior to the Super Bowl era. Johnny’s record of 47 straight games with a touchdown pass is still intact, which is remarkable when you consider the differences in offensive trends between then and now, but his most important quality was his leadership. When it comes to leadership, Johnny is tops on this list. In college he played both ways (usually leading his team in tackles), and it was this ‘win-at-all-cost’ mentality that fans and teammates loved.

5. John Elway
One thing that a lot of people don’t remember about John is that he was a tremendous athlete. Elway could make plays with his feet when necessary, but usually preferred to use his rocket arm as the primary weapon. John didn’t win a Super Bowl until late in his career, but cemented his legacy by winning 2 straight. Clutch? You bet. Elway orchestrated what is simply known as “the drive”, to beat the Browns in a classic AFC Championship game. In a two-minute drill, he is at his best. He took a much maligned franchise in Denver and turned them into a perennial contender.

6. Brett Favre
#4 is my boy. He’s been my favourite player since I was young and is mainly responsible for turning me into a football fan. He leads the league in all statistical passing categories (including interceptions), has won a Super Bowl and 3 MVP awards. Favre is the consummate gunslinger. Having a knack for the theatrical, Favre would make miraculous plays out of nothing and never shied away from the long ball. People look to his 2 critical interceptions in NFC Championship games and somehow believe that he ‘always blew it’. Favre had his share of mistakes, but the good outweighed the bad by a mile. He played at a high level for nearly two decades registering his best statistical season at the age of 40.  Brett's toughness is unmatched and he will go down as one of the most entertaining players in the history of sports.

7. Bart Starr
The MVP of the inaugural Super Bowl couldn’t have been awarded to a more deserving player. At the time of his retirement, Starr had led the Packers to five NFL championships (2 Super Bowls), was the MVP of both Super Bowls he played in and was a career 9-1 in postseason games. Starr also had the highest completion % in NFL history and is currently ranked 2nd all time for playoff passer rating. Starr was unquestionably the greatest QB of his era and was at his best when it mattered most.


8. Dan Marino
Rings don’t mean everything. Despite not winning the big game, Marino led the Dolphins to 10 playoff appearances in 17 years. Unless you were a Dolphin fan back in those days, you’d be hard pressed to name a star receiving option on the Fins at any point in his career. People that knock Marino for not winning typically haven’t seen him throw the ball. Watching him throw is a thing of beauty. The quickest release combined with pinpoint accuracy and an incredibly strong arm provided Marino with what I believe to be the best arm in the history of the NFL. His resume is flawed because he never won a championship but football is the ultimate team sport and you can’t win on your own. Marino is too good to be any lower – rings or no rings.

9. Troy Aikman
Aikman won three world championships in Dallas and will forever have a special place with Cowboys fans. Yes he did have Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, but Aikman made it all work. Smith’s success was fueled by the fact that opposing defenses had to respect the pass when playing Dallas. Aikman, Irvin and Smith were nicknamed the ‘triplets’ – a fitting nickname as they all were equally valuable to each other’s success. Troy is one of the worst colour commentators ever, but he is one of the best quarterbacks ever.

10. Terry Bradshaw
Ok, so Bradshaw is a lot different than most of the guys on this list. He didn’t have the greatest arm, and to be honest, the Steelers of the 1970s were so good that didn’t have to do too much. However, when it comes down to it, there’s only one stat used to gauge quarterbacks – wins. I would pick everyone ahead of Bradshaw on this list because I believe they would get me more wins than he would, but I honestly believe that the guys after him wouldn’t produce as many. He was a tremendous leader and a powerful football player. He called all of his own plays (something often overlooked) and was good enough at it to lead the Steelers to 4 Super Bowl championships. As the late, great Al Davis used to say, “Just win baby”.

Just missed the cut: Steve Young, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach

Conference Championship Picks

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
The top two seeds square off at Gillette Stadium for a trip to the Super Bowl.  The weather is supposed to be great considering it's January in the North East.  All signs point to a classic.

When the Patriots have the ball
Tom Brady looks like a man on a mission.  He is in the latter part of his Hall of Fame career and in reality, this could be his last trip to the big game.  Brady's play last week would imply two things: 1) despite his age he still looks to be every bit in his prime, and 2) he knows he is on the wrong side of 35 and wants to take advantage of his remaining opportunities.  The big question is how will the Ravens cover the Patriots receivers.  Rob Gronkowski has made it very clear that he cannot be covered by one man.  If the Ravens plan on stopping him, they will need to jam him with a linebacker and provide safety help.  This could open up space for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (both very dangerous threats in their own right).  The Steelers showed that if you can jam the Patriots receivers and get pressure, you can slow the offensive juggernaut.  I expect the Ravens to try a similar strategy.  Ed Reed will play centre field, the Ravens will rush four and hope that Suggs and company can get to Brady before Gronk, Wes, Hernandez or Branch can get open.  If that's Baltimore's plan, expect to see lots of RB Dany Woodhead as Ray Lewis will be forced to play man coverage on the backs.  For the Ravens to be succesful, they will need to attack the ballcarrier and be aggresive.  If they sit back, Brady will pick them apart.

When the Ravens have the ball
Ray Rice will get a lot of touches early as he was a big reason the Ravens beat the Patriots last time they met in the playoffs.  The difference this time around is Brady has an abundance of weapons on offense.  If the Ravens are going to win this one, it will come down to Joe Flacco's ability to make plays in the passing game.  He has an arsenal of weapons, a fabulous offensive line and is facing one of the lowest ranked defenses in the NFL.  Forget the matchups.  This is the game where the world finds out if Joe Flacco is for real.

Pick: Patriots and lay the points (-7)

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
It's supposed to be cold and rainy with a side of mud.  Sounds like some home cooking for the 49ers.

When the Giants have the ball
Good luck trying to run against the 49ers.  The Giants can't completely abandon the run, but Eli will have to make the plays to put up points.  There's no doubt he can do that, but the 49ers are a different beast.  They are the most physical team I've seen in awhile and will cause all sorts of problems for the Giants.  The Smiths (Aldon and Justin) will need to create pressure on Manning (something they can do very well).  I get the impression that the Giants believe they are already destined for a Super Bowl rematch, that doesn't bode well for this week.

When the 49ers have the ball
Alex Smith was exceptional last week in the final minutes, but don't expect him to do too much this weekend.  Mainly because that isn't what got the 49ers this far.  They will run the ball and utilize play action.  If the situation calls for it, Alex Smith can get more aggresive, but I think the Niners will have success running the ball.  The Giants Dline is built to rush the passer.  They beat the Falcons (who abandoned the run too early), and then the Packers (who barely run at all).  The Niners Oline will want to send a message early that they are not a 'finnesse' group.

Pick: 49ers (-2.5)

Rest In Peace

What a surprise! This team crept into the playoffs on the final week of the season, won a playoff game, upset the #1 seed in the divisional round and will now go on the road to play in the NFC Championship game. No, I’m not talking about the 2011 New York Giants, I’m talking about the 2010 Green Bay Packers.


Every season we are reminded of how important momentum is to the game of football. As I’ve mentioned before, I believe it to be the single most important aspect of a game. We’ve seen some great examples of its effect this year. Tim Tebow’s heroics captivating the Denver Broncos, the New York Giants riding a wave of confidence into the playoffs and now into the conference championship and even the Indianapolis Colts (feeling how the other side of things feels) losing games because of a defeatist attitude that crept into their locker room. Last year, the Packers found out first hand how much of an ally momentum can be. Which is why it’s somewhat surprising that they chose to discard it just in time for the playoffs this season.

After losing the first game all season to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers came out the following week and got right back on track against the Bears. Looming large was the paramount decision that faces every team that is lucky enough to secure the top seed before week 17. Do they rest their starters? The Packers decided to sit Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings for the season finale against the Lions. Matt Flynn got the start and passed for 480 yards and 6TD’s (both Packer records) as the Packers offensive juggernaut seemed fine under his leadership. Matthews, Jennings and Woodson all had nagging injuries but Rodgers was in perfect health. The obvious benefit was to have those key contributors at 100% health for the first round of the playoffs. The downside is that Rodgers would be without game action for 22 days – by far the longest stretch since August.

For Packers fans, yesterday’s game couldn’t have been more frustrating to watch. After watching Rodgers play pitch and catch all season, it was painful to see the amount of miscues, dropped passes and inaccurate throws. Early in the game Jennings was wide open for a touchdown – he broke to the post, Rodgers threw to the corner – opportunity missed. On a critical third down Jermichael Finley was open for a first down – Rodgers led him about a foot too far – opportunity missed. These two plays were simply a microcosm for how the game went for the Packers.

It wasn’t just the offence either. The Giants last drive before halftime was a defensive nightmare. The Packers let Ahmad Bradshaw run from one side of the field to the other without tackling him in bounds. That allowed Manning one chance at a Hail Mary pass. As soon as the ball left his hands you could see that he had Nicks open in the endzone. Two Packer defenders had undercut the routes and were standing, covering no one, at the 10 yard line. There was no excuse for such mental miscues at a critical juncture of the game. Rusty? Perhaps.

The New England Patriots (the Packers of the AFC), had to play their starters the last week of the regular season because home field hadn’t been secured. They’re dismantling of the Broncos Saturday would indicate that they didn’t need that extra week of rest (even though Brady actually had an injury to his non-throwing shoulder).

As I mentioned at the start of the article, it’s surprising that the Packers didn’t have better perspective on the importance of momentum. Last year they were able to ride the hot-hand of Rodgers all the way to a Super Bowl title. This year, it might be the Giants who capitalize on that formula.

The debate to rest players in the final week of the regular season will continue on forever and there are examples that resting guys can have a positive outcome. This year though, the argument for playing your starters got much stronger. There’s no denying Rodgers was off. He didn’t look like the guy who led the Packers to a 15-1 record while posting one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history.

Hindsight is 20/20 and I’m sure if Rodgers had played and gotten hurt, Mike McCarthy would’ve been ostracized from Green Bay. It’s never an easy decision, but as the Packers found out – sometimes it’s much easier to be the scrappy underdog than king of the hill.

-Jansen-

Divisional Weekend Pick'em

After starting last week 4-0, finishing 5-3 was a bit of a disappointment.  What wasn't disappointing?  The OT thriller between the Broncos and the Steelers.  Enjoy this weekend - it's the best weekend of the NFL Calendar.

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

It seems like the biggest question facing the New Orleans Saints is whether they can take the show on the road.  Playing in the friendly confines of the Super Dome, they have been well , Super.  Waiting for them in San Francisco is one of the NFL’s best defenses, and a well-rested one at that.  Even if the Saints do require good weather to operate their offensive juggernaut, an outdoor game in San Francisco should certainly ease the indoor-outdoor transition. 

The 49ers success this season has been based upon playing tough defense and running the football.  If the Saints can score early and get a lead, Niners QB Alex Smith will be pressured into making plays in the passing game.  In a shootout between Brees and Smith, Brees wins every time.  However, if the 49ers can keep the Saints out of the end zone, then they can let Smith make high percentage throws off play action and wear down the Saints defense that is built more for speed than power.  

In reality, the Saints are much better on the road than people give them credit for (16-8 in the last 3 seasons).  Alex Smith was good enough to get the 49ers into the playoffs but against New Orleans, he is going to have to make a lot of plays, and I just don’t think he can do enough.

Pick: Saints and to cover the -3.5

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

Tebowmania continues this week as the Broncos go on the road to face the top seeded New England Patriots.  No one gave Denver a chance against the Steelers last week and they proved that they can beat quality teams playing their style.  How sustainable this offence is in the future doesn’t matter.  What does matter is that it has proven to be effective in the present and when the chips are down, Tebow has proved that he can make plays.  

Don’t believe the hype about how the last time these two teams played the Patriots blew the Broncos out.  In the first quarter, the Broncos rushed for 160 yards against the NFL’s #31 ranked defense.  Last week, Tebow threw for 316 yards against the Steelers – a much better defense.  What plagued the Broncos last time was turnovers.  They turned the ball over 3 times in the 2^nd quarter which is akin to signing your own death certificate when playing Tom Brady.  The keys for Denver are to control the time of possession and have zero turnovers.  If they can win the turnover battle, they have a chance to make it close at the end.

When the Patriots are on offence, they have proved almost impossible to slow down, let alone stop.  The only time they really showed signs of struggling was early this season against the Steelers.  Pittsburgh played press man-to-man coverage and blitzed Brady, which actually was very successful.  It’s also what the Jets did last year in the playoffs to Brady and the Pats.  Earlier this season when they played, Denver only rushed 3 linemen and dropped everyone into coverage.  Bad idea.  Brady just sat back and picked their defense apart.  Expect Fox to turn loose Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller while playing press man coverage in the secondary.  The only way to beat Brady is to get hits on him and not give his receivers time or space to get open.  

Pick: Patriots but definitely take the Broncos to cover +13.5

Houston @ Baltimore

This is the most ‘old school’ football game of the week, where the keys will be running the ball and playing suffocating defense.  The Ravens are much better when playing at home, especially Joe Flacco, who will be relied upon to win this game.  

Houston runs the ball better than anyone in the league.  Their zone running game featuring Arian Foster is exceptional and the threat of Andre Johnson in the passing game will force the Ravens to keep safeties deep.  Despite the numbers, I believe the Ravens run defense has regressed as of late.  Since coming back from injury, Ray Lewis has missed more tackles than I’ve seen him miss his entire career.  He will need to be at his very best to stop the Texans run game.  

It all comes down to Flacco.  He will need to score points early so that pressure is put on the Texans offence – more specifically rookie QB TJ Yates.  If he struggles, the Texans can continue to pound the rock on offence and ‘hide’ Yates with play action.  If Ray Rice doesn’t get 30+ touches I’ll be shocked.  In the end, I think the Texans are physical enough and play good enough defensively to keep it close.  Even though I don’t have a ton of faith in Flacco, I have to believe he will make the plays that Yates can’t.

Pick: Ravens but Texans +7.5

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Up until this season it was common for the defending Super Bowl champions to miss the playoffs as part of the ‘Super Bowl Hangover’.  Apparently no one told the Packers.  They cruised through the regular season with one of the most prolific offenses in recent memory.  Their defense gets a bad rap, but part of the reason they give up so many yards is because opposing teams are constantly throwing on them to try and catch up.  However, the Giants are as hot as any team in the league right now and should be considered a serious threat to Green Bay.

Eli Manning has been exceptional this season.  It was his play that kept the Giants alive when they were inundated with injuries.  He’s been the best QB in the fourth quarter which proves that the Giants are dangerous with the game on the line.  Their run game has been very strong lately as well and that balance has made the Giants offense very effective.  The Packers secondary is strong, but they can’t cover forever.  The key when the Giants have the ball will be how much pressure Dom Capers can get on Manning.  If they can’t rush the passer, expect a shootout.

The only way you can dream of slowing down Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him without blitzing.  The Giants are the perfect team to do that.  Their defensive line is the best in the league at rushing the passer which has helped mask a relatively weak secondary.  Rodgers will need to use draws and quick step passes early to slow down the rush.  The spread is way too high on this game, but the Packers will remind everyone that no flash in the pan, streaky team is going to come into their house and hand them only their 2^nd all year.  

Pick: Packers but Giants to cover +9.5

Wild Card Weekend Picks

This year's picks finished 169-87, good enough to finish ahead of the 8 ESPN analysts making weekly selections.  It was a good year, and I hope that I was able to help some of you win pools or bets at some point throughout the season. 

As they say, it's a new season.  The playoffs are here and should provide plenty of entertainment.  Let's get to the games.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Both teams lost going into the playoffs but they did so with different mentalities.  The Texans rested a number of guys on defence and limited Andre Johnson considerably on offense.  They had nothing to play for and instead took the opportunity to get guys healthy.  The Bengals on the otherhand believed they needed a win over the Ravens to secure a wild card spot.  They were unable to win and received a fair amount of 'help' to get in. 

The Texans defence has been exceptional this year even with the loss of Mario Williams.  Jonathan Joseph is playing at a very high level and should be able to handle AJ Green, as long as he gets some safety help.  He will no doubt want to shine against his old team that didn't think he was worth the money last offseason.  When the Bengals have the ball, the key for them will be to run the ball effectively, if they can do that, it will open up man coverage opportunities that Dalton can take advantage of.  The key for the Texans D will be to get pressure and hits on Dalton.  Dalton has proven that if he gets time to throw, he can be efficient moving the ball. 

Marvin Lewis has the young Bengals defence playing well.  The key for them will be stopping the Texans #1 ranked rushing attack.  Therein lies the key.  The Texans will plan to give Arian Foster 20 carries and Ben Tate an additional 12-15.  If they collectively can average over 4 yards a carry, the Texans win.  The Bengals defence is in a difficult position.  They will likely commit more men to the box to try and stop the Texans run game, but leaving Andre Johnson in man coverage off play action is a recipe for disaster.

Home team gets it done.

Pick: Texans and lay the points (-3)

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
In the last month, 2 things became very obvious when it comes to the Lions.  They can score points with the best of them & Steve Young could come out of the booth and throw for 500 yards on their secondary.  Lucky for them I don't think New Orleans has a very good quarterback....

The key for the Saints is to attack on both sides of the ball.  They need to score early and often to put a lot of pressure on the Lions offence to respond.  That in turn will allow the Saints defence to be aggresive and focus on creating turnovers against a one dimensional Lions offence. 

The only way I see the Lions winning this game is if Suh and the rest of the defensive line can get pressure on Drew Brees without adding blitz pressure, and if Calvin Johnson imposes his will on the Saints secondary.  At this point the Saints D is better than the Lions D and the Saints O is one of the best in NFL history.  They're also at home where they are essentially unstoppable.

Pick: Saints but Lions to Cover +11

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
These teams are both extremely dangerous and whoever wins this should be considered a legitamite threat to the 49ers or Packers.  The Giants got in the same way they did when they won the Super Bowl - a late season surge led by a ferocious defensive line.  Eli Manning has been awesome in the 4th quarter all year and Matt Ryan is on a tear.  In the last 7 weeks, Ryan has thrown 15 Touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. 

The Giants defensive line is exceptional at rushing the passer.  Therefore the Falcons will need to establish their running game with Michael Turner.  A 55/45 pass-run split would be ideal for the Falcons.  If Matt Ryan is forced to throw the ball 40+ times, he might not make it to the end of the game.  Julio Jones and Roddy White should have a field day against the Giants secondary, but only if the Falcons utilize play action to protect Ryan.  The Giants have no Linebackers who can cover so Tony Gonzalez figures to be a huge safety net for Ryan if New York's pass rush heats up. 

The Giants will have a very similar game plan.  Run the ball with Bradshaw/Jacobs, make quick throws out of shotgun and go deep to Nicks and Cruz off play action.  The only pass rush threat is John Abraham, and if he gets doubled, Manning could have all day to throw.  Bottom line: this should be the best game of the weekend and whoever has the ball last wins.

Pick: Falcons and take the points +3

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Is an over/under line of 20 too high for this game?  Probably. 

The Steelers offence is reeling.  Starting RB Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season, Ben Roethlisberger is seriously hobbled by a high ankle sprain and all-star centre Maurkice Pouncey is banged up.  Isaac Redman is not going to contribute enough in the run game to win the game, so Big Ben will have to make plays.  The Broncos have a good secondary and Von Miller/Elvis Dumervill specialize in getting after the QB.  No one can question Roethlisberger's toughness, but this is the playoffs and if any of the Broncos get free, they will take their best shot at the Steeler's pivot.  It's not going to be easy for them to score points.

Speaking of difficulty scoring points, let's look at the Broncos offence.  Tebow had a miraculous run of 4th quarter comeback wins and then finished the year with 3 straight losses.  He looked tentative last week which prompted VP John Elway to say that he needs to 'pull the trigger'.  The Steelers defence is going to make things very difficult on Tebow.  Instead of optioning the defensive end, it will be the outside linebackers (James Harrison/LaMarr Woodley).  If either of those guys get a shot on Tebow, he'll feel it.  Troy Polamalu might be put in a spy role on Tebow which would likely limit his production in the run game.  It's going to come down to how he throws and how much magic he has left in the 4th quarter. 

Pick: Steelers but Broncos to cover the +8.5

Good Luck!

Week 17 Pick'em

Season Record: 159-81

Detroit @ Green Bay
Neither team has anything to play for really, but given that these two teams could meet in the playoffs, it means a lot for team morale.  Detroit will want to prove they can win in Wisconsin.  UPDATE: Rodgers, Woodson and Matthews out.  Pick Change

Pick: Lions

San Francisco @ St. Louis
The Rams will have a very interesting decision to make should they land the #1 pick in the draft.

Pick: 49ers

New York Jets @ Miami
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Dolphins will win this.  The Jets are pretty much eliminated, and the Fins have been playing well.  However, the scenario that must occur for the Jets to get into the playoffs is not overly farfetched, and I imagine they will be fighting tooth and nail for their coach.

Pick: Jets

Chicago @ Minnesotta
What a disappointing year for these two teams.  A severe knee injury to Adrian Peterson changes how teams will play the Vikings.  Toby Gerhart is a solid back, but doesn't force defences to change the way they play.  Josh McCown played well last week in the loss.

Pick: Bears

Buffalo @ New England
Patriots still need to lock up home field advantage.  They play lights out at home.

Pick: Patriots

Carolina @ New Orleans
The Saints are still playing for home field advantage and although the Panthers have been playing much better football lately, no one has been able to slow the Saints offence.

Pick: Saints

Washington @ Philadelphia
Everyone in Philly must wonder what could've been if only their team had gotten its act together one week sooner.

Pick: Eagles

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
'You play to win the game' - Herm Edwards.  After all he's done for them, the team pulls out a win to save Peyton from an ugly offseason.

Pick: Colts

Tennessee @ Houston
Since clinching a playoff berth, the Texans haven't won a game.  They need to get back on track if they want to have any chance in the post season.

Pick: Texans

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Falcons are playing good football and are always better in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.  The Bucs have been the most disappointing team of 2011.

Pick: Falcons

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
If you think the Ravens are simply going to roll over, think again.  They need home field advantage and a loss combined with a Steelers win, forces them to play an extra game and go on the road.  Ray Lewis is showing some real signs of aging and his emotional leadership can only mask his physical deterioration for so long.

Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
It seems as though Big Ben will play this Sunday as the Steelers try and get home field advantage.  Of all playoff bound teams, the Steelers could use the bye week the most with the amount of injuries to key players.

Pick: Steelers

Kansas City @ Denver
Kyle Orton returns to put an end to the Broncos miracle run.  Sure it's true that Orton will be a man possessed trying to win this game.  Only problem is Tebow always plays like a man possessed and has won a lot more games than Orton.

Pick: Broncos

San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are the 2nd most disappointing team in 2011.  Still they can end a divisional rivals season and have the talent to do so.

Pick: Chargers

Seattle @ Arizona
Both teams have rallied since dismal starts to the season.  Special teams will decide this one.

Pick: Cardinals

Dallas @ New York
Couldn't finish out the season with a better game.  The Cowboys controlled the game right up until the final 5 minutes when these two faced off a few weeks ago.  I expect they'll find a way to hold on.

Pick: Cowboys

Christmas Rant: Rob Ryan Needs to Shut It

When Rex Ryan took over as the head coach of the New York Jets, it didn’t take long for the casual fan to find out what he was about.  Former players of his described him as a brash, outspoken and confident guy.  He didn’t disappoint.  Rex relished the spotlight and seemed to provide a new and controversial sound-bite every week.  Unfortunately the twin syndrome has kicked in and I’m ready to call out his loudmouth twin brother.

In his first year as defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has been the most outspoken ‘coordinator’ in NFL history.  He has constantly made claims about how well they’re going to play and pretty much been as loud and obnoxious as his brother.  The only problem is he isn’t the head coach.  Jason Garrett is, although you wouldn’t know it based on the number of sound-bites they each produce.  Today, NFL.com reported that Rob Ryan claimed his head coaching offer is ‘going to happen’ and it was ‘only a matter of time’.  Rob.  You’ve ranted enough.  It’s my turn.

Prior to joining the Jets in 2009, Rex ran the Ravens defense which consistently ranked in the top 3 in points against and yards allowed.  In his first season as head coach, the Jets defense ranked #1 and allowed a stingy 14.8 points per game.  Last year his defense ranked 3^rd overall and currently sits 7^th this year with two games to play.  Rob has the mouth and the look.  He doesn’t have the substance.  Over the last four years, Rob has been the defensive coordinator for the Raiders, Browns (2 seasons) and Cowboys.  His defenses have ranked 27^th, 31^st, 22^nd and currently sit 13^th this season.  He hasn’t even cracked the top 10. 

Whether Rex rubs you the wrong way or not, two things about him are respectable.  When he was a coordinator, he kept his brashness contained to the locker room as to not undermine the head coach.  When he finally was the leader in New York, he talked a lot – but backed it up.  Rob’s path has taken a bit longer, and although I don’t have a twin, I can imagine there is a fair amount of jealousy.  It’s really the only explanation for Rob acting like he’s the lead dog in Dallas and shooting his mouth all the time. 

In the words of Shooter Mcgavin – here’s a free lesson for you Rob: Shut your mouth and coach a defense that for once ranks in the top 5.  So far, it’s been a lot of talking and not a lot of walking.

Week 16 Pick'em

Season Record: 150 - 74 (#1 vs 8 ESPN Analysts)

Houston @ Indianapolis

Momentum is huge in the NFL.  The Colts finally winning a game will allow them to loosen up and play better.  They beat a quality football team in the Titans so it’s not out of the question they come up with an upset tonight.  Still, the Texans lead the league in rushing and defense.  A great combination.

Pick: Texans

Denver @ Buffalo

Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t play in the cold weather (it was painfully clear last week).  Poor conditions favours Tebow as defenders will not have sure footing. 

Pick: Broncos

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Both teams are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, but Cinci has a much more realistic chance of getting into the postseason.  The Cardinals are 6-1 while the Bengals are 3-4 over the last 7 weeks.  Patrick Peterson covering AJ Green should be interesting.  Expect this to be a close one.

Pick: Cardinals

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Chris Johnson isn’t healthy and may not play.  We’re not sure who will get the start at QB for the Titans.  Regardless, the Jags are not good and although they’ve shown that they can show up randomly, it’s not something I’m willing to bet on.

Pick: Titans

Oakland @ Kansas City

Two more teams that are battling mathematical elimination.  Romeo was able to dial up the perfect game plan for the Packers, the Raiders can’t be that difficult can they?

Pick: Chiefs

Miami @ New England

The Patriots offense is picking up steam and is playing well enough to win despite an awful defense.  Reggie Bush has been impressive this season and has backed up his claim that he is an every down back.  Brandon Marshall should have a big day.

Pick: Patriots

New York @ New York

As if it couldn’t get any better.  One New York team will have the privilege of essentially eliminating their hometown rival from playoff contention.  Believe me, whichever of these two teams gets into the playoffs will be dangerous.  In a game that is tough to predict, I have to go with the better QB.

Pick: Giants

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

Even without Big Ben the Steelers are miles ahead of the lowly Rams, who are a few losses away from a potential mind-blowing decision on Andrew Luck.

Pick: Steelers

Minnesota @ Washington

The “we got fooled by McNabb” Bowl.  Grossman should pass all over the Vikings who can’t cover anyone.  AP could have a big day running the ball as he will no doubt be on a mission to get 1000 yards on the season.

Pick: Redskins

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Two teams whose arrows are pointing in opposite directions.  For Christmas, Cam Newton wants to run the table like the Lions did last year.  Raheem Morris wants a job. 

Pick: Panthers

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Every time the Ravens lay an egg, they blast a team the following week.  They are undefeated at home this season and the Browns have already called it a year.  Ray Lewis is starting to show real signs of aging.

Pick: Ravens

San Diego @ Detroit

The key in this game will be whether or not the Chargers offensive line can protect Phil Rivers.  They were able to last week and as a result, handed the Ravens an ass-kicking.  The Lions can clinch a playoff berth so the home crowd will be rocking.

Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia @ Dallas

The Psyches in this one are the main story.  Dallas must be feeling the pressure and they know that a dangerous Eagles team is coming to town.  The Eagles have been written off and therefore can play loose (as they have the last few weeks). 

Pick: Eagles

San Francisco @ Seattle

Marshawn Lynch is the bell cow for Seattle but the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in months.  I can’t see Tarvaris Jackson making enough plays to win this one.

Pick: 49ers

Chicago @ Green Bay

This would’ve been a real Christmas treat if Josh “which” McCown wasn’t starting for the Bears.

Pick: Packers

Atlanta @ New Orleans

A great divisional game to close out the holiday weekend.  Brees has been unstoppable lately and is always at his best in the Super Dome.  The Saints don’t typically blow out divisional opponents because they are more prepared for the high flying Saints offence.  Matty Ice wants this one. Badly.

Pick: Falcons

Why Raheem Morris Must Go

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the most disappointing team this season.  After barely missing the playoffs last year with the youngest team in the league, there was reason for optimism heading into the 2011 campaign.  They proceeded to fall flat on their face. 

The first thing to consider is whether or not the team has the talent to contend.  In fact, I believe the Bucs are one of the most talented teams in the NFC.  Josh Freeman is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league and has all the tools to be a franchise player.  The offensive line is above average with Donald Penn and Davin Joseph as the best of the bunch.  Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow are quality receiving targets and LeGarette Blount is a power runner who bulldozes opponents. 

The defense is actually better.  The defensive line is loaded at every position and is among the most talented in the league.  The secondary is solid, despite Ronde Barber getting older and middle linebacker Mason Foster is a budding star.  Sure they could use some help at OLB but nobody’s perfect. 

The problem is head coach Raheem Morris and it’s shocking how similar his time in Tampa has mirrored that of Josh McDaniels tenure in Denver.  At the time they were hired, both were the youngest head coach in NFL history.  They both got off to hot starts and looked to have their teams in great shape.  Then, everything collapsed and McDaniels was fired before the end of his second season.  Morris will be lucky to finish his as well.

Don’t get me wrong, Morris is a smart defensive mind and it appears that his players like him.  However, as a young head coach, you need some help.  When Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, he had the legendary Dick Lebeau running the defense.  When Jon Gruden took over in Tampa, he had Monte Kiffin.  Even Packers head coach Mike McCarthy brought in Dom Capers to give him some help on the defensive side.  McDaniels didn’t.  After Mike Nolan left, he promoted his linebacker coach to defensive coordinator.  Things went downhill from there.

Raheem Morris also hired internally by promoting Greg Olson to the position of offensive coordinator.  He had a good first season, but now the wheels have fallen off.  Both are likely to lose their jobs and the Bucs are miles from where they thought they’d be at this juncture.

In business, if you want to have success, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with high quality people.  Having a strong support network is extremely valuable when faced with unique problems.  Whether McDaniels and Morris thought they could do it on their own is irrelevant.  They couldn’t.  As a young coach, Morris should’ve brought in an established veteran to run the offence (defense in McDaniels case).  It would’ve ensured that he could focus completely on the defense and have confidence that the offence would be in good hands.  Instead, the recipe of having two inexperienced coaches has proven ineffective and is about to cost another promising young coach his job.

McDaniels will get another shot (rumours suggest it might be as soon as 2012) because he is an offensive genius.  His next team will believe he has matured and is now fit to take over again as the ‘lead dog’.  Morris will likely become a coordinator again and have to earn another head coaching gig.  Both of them will be fine, but the next young hot shot who thinks he can go it alone, won’t be.  

Week 15 Pick'em

Season Record: 143 - 65 (#1 vs ESPN Analyst picks)

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Cowboys are playing good football, but just can't seem to hold on to a lead.  They've buckled hard in the final minutes over the last 2 weeks.  The Bucs are atrocious and rumours of Raheem Morris being fired will make things very tense in Tampa.

Pick: Cowboys

Miami @ Buffalo
The Bills will give their home fans a treat after really spiralling out of contention the last two months.

Pick: Bills

Seattle @ Chicago
The Bears got Tebowed last week but their defence has been very good since Cutler went out.  This is a must win for their playoff hopes, their at home, it's time.

Pick: Bears

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Jake Locker will likely get the call for the Titans at quarterback.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts might pull this out, but the Titans D is very good and Chris Johnson should run all over Indy.

Pick: Titans

Green Bay @ Kansas City
Jennings is out for the regular season.  Good thing the Packers 'next man up' is someone as talented as James Jones.

Pick: Packers

Cincinnati @ St. Louis
The Bengals will look to stay alive in the wild card race in St. Louis.  The Rams have been a real disappointment this season.

Pick: Bengals

New Orleans @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson returns for the Vikings but their secondary has looked atrocious lately.  Drew Brees should close in on Marino's record.

Pick: Saints

Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants have been up and down, but Eli Manning has really impressed me this season.  He has put himself in elite company this year and is playing as well as anyone not named Rodgers.

Pick: Giants

Carolina @ Houston
The Panthers are playing good football, but they are learning how to win still.  The Texans have their sites set on a playoff bye.

Pick: Texans

Detroit @ Oakland
Suh returns for the Lions in a must-win game for both teams.  Should be a battle in Cali.

Pick: Lions

New England @ Denver
Expect Tom Brady to have his foot on the gas pedal from the start as it appears the only way to beat Tim Tebow is to put the game out of reach by the time the 4th quarter rolls around.

Pick: Patriots

New York Jets @ Philadelphia
The Jets are in the fight of their lives for a playoff berth.  Their run game has come on strong lately.  Philly has enough talent to beat anyone at any time.

Pick: Jets

Cleveland @ Arizona
McCoy may be out.  Zona has played much better the last few weeks knocking off some great teams in the 49ers and Cowboys.

Pick: Cardinals

Baltimore @ San Diego
The Ravens get Ray lewis back this week and Suggs has been playing at an MVP level the last month.  The Chargers always play better late in the season, but their offensive line is in for a tough day.

Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
Ben Roethlisberger is a true warrior and I can't imagine he misses this game.  If he's out I might revise the pick but if he's in, I'll take the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers

The Evolution of the Tight End

 In January of 2004, Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts squared off against Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in one of the most memorable AFC Championship games in recent history.  In that game, the Patriots secondary bullied the Colts wide receivers off the line of scrimmage prompting the NFL to review the rules on contacting receivers.  The following season, referees cracked down on the ‘chuck’ rule, which limits defenders to contacting receivers only within the first five yards.  What effect did it have?  Well, in that same year, Peyton Manning broke a number of passing records including touchdowns in a season and the NFL began a full scale transition into the pass-happy league it is today.  The game has since turned into basketball on turf and no one has benefited more than tight ends.

Teams used to cover tight-ends with linebackers.  They would use their size and strength to stymie the tight-ends at the line of scrimmage.  Once the ‘chuck’ rule was enforced, linebackers couldn’t get away with such tactics anymore.  They were exposed in coverage as they lacked the athleticism to stay with the more gifted tight-ends.  The most prolific offences in the NFL right now feature tight-ends.  The Packers are the only team with 5 of them on the active roster and Jermichael Finley is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the league.  The Patriots drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez early in the 2010 draft who have become the focal point of Belichick’s offensive system.  The Saints Jimmy Graham is leading all tight-ends in catches and he played more basketball than football in university.

The question defenses must ask is - how do we stop them?  When Rob Gronkowski comes on to the football field, who do you put out there to cover him?  The vast majority of linebackers are not athletic enough to stay with him and even if they are, his wingspan and height make it almost impossible to cover him on jump balls.  Safeties have the speed but definitely not the size.  Gronk, Finley and Graham are the new generation whose path was carved out by guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, former basketball players who, given a clean release from the line of scrimmage, could use rebounding technique and body position to ‘box-out’ smaller defenders.  Even now NFL rules continue to change to protect receivers.  Flags for hits on ‘defenseless receivers’ are only making it easier for offensive passing systems as receivers no longer fear catching balls in traffic.

The rule changes in the passing game have made these guys almost impossible to stop.  Fear not, I have a solution.

Offensive scouts now spend a great deal of time and effort evaluating college basketball stars in hopes they find the next Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates.  Since apparently no one can guard these guys on the field, maybe defensive coaches should head to the basketball gym as well.  Who better to cover Jimmy Graham than say, Jimmy Graham?  The obvious issue is that tall guys have difficulty tackling, though tackling itself has become a lost art.  Even if he isn’t a great tackler, having a ‘coverage specialist’ to play on 3^rd downs and certain situations could be the key to winning games. 

It would be an experiment for sure, but as the Packers, Patriots and Saints have proved, in the constantly changing NFL it’s better to be ahead of the curve than left behind.  

Week 14 Pick'em

Season Record 129-63 (#1 out of 8 ESPN Analysts)

Houston @ Cincinnati

I’ve always believed Wade Phillips was a better coordinator than head coach. His Texans are allowing the lowest average yardage per game in the NFL. People will doubt TJ Yates, but in a game that will come down to who runs the ball better, I like the Texans run game more.

Pick: Texans

Minnesota @ Detroit
The Lions are in the thick of the wildcard race and should blow past the depleted Vikings. Christian Ponder may be out and AP will not be 100% if he suits up. If Tebow can light up the Vikes secondary, I imagine Stafford and Megatron can as well.

Pick: Lions

New Orleans @ Tennessee
New Orleans has looked unstoppable lately; however they face a team that matches up very well against them. The field in Tennessee is grass and the Titans can create pressure with their front four. The Saints have a let down game.

Pick: Titans

Philadelphia @ Miami
I have no idea what to say about this game. On paper, the Eagles are the best team in the league and have been awful. The Dolphins went from being the worst team in the league to winners of 4 straight. The Eagles know it’s over but Mike Vick has something to prove in his first game back.

Pick: Eagles

Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Kyle Orton era lasted less than a quarter and the Chiefs turn back to Tyler Palko. The Jets are still in the hunt and typically start to play better as we get into December.

Pick: Jets

New England @ Washington
Due to a weak schedule, the Patriots have a realistic chance at seizing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This might be their toughest test.

Pick: Patriots

Atlanta @ Carolina
In my opinion, the Panthers have already transitioned into a playoff team. What I mean is, although they are too far behind, they are competing like a playoff team. This will be a great one as the Falcons need the win badly and the Panthers are one of the most dangerous teams in the league to face.

Pick: Falcons

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
I’m not even sure if people in Florida care about this one.

Pick: Bucs

Indianapolis @ Baltimore
The Colts have already turned their attention away from this season and towards the Luck/Manning mess that is sure to come.

Pick: Ravens

Chicago @ Denver
The Bears defense must be livid after playing very well against the Chiefs and losing 10-3 (all because of a hail mary touchdown). This week they know that the Tebow Train is rolling in and the crowd will be going bonkers. Who will be able to generate offence on the Bears?

Pick: Broncos

San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers do not take games off. The Cardinals are the epitome of sporadic.

Pick: 49ers

Oakland @ Green Bay
Clearly the Giants were insane to leave 55 seconds on the clock last week. Although the Packers looked like they could’ve done it in 15 seconds if necessary.

Pick: Packers

Buffalo @ San Diego
The Chargers always start to play better when they are flirting with mathematical elimination. Read my article on the Bills if you want the good, because this week’s west coast road trip is bad.

Pick: Chargers

New York Giants @ Dallas
No love lost in this one. The Giants roll into big D for a pivotal game against the Cowboys. The Giants come away with a shocker.

Pick: Giants

St. Louis @ Seattle
A rematch of last year’s win-and-your-in game will not have the same entertainment value. Both teams have been atrocious but Seattle is a tough place to play and they’ll be revved up on Monday night. Marshawn has solidified himself as a feature ball carrier.

Pick: Seahawks