Week 11 Pick'em

A week off in Omaha, Nebraska made this a shortened version of the picks.  Here are the 1 o'clock kickoffs, check back for the rest at halftime of the first slate of games.

Raiders @ Steelers (-7)
The Raiders need to run the ball to be effective.  The Steelers play great run defence and need to break out of this slump.

Straight Up: Steelers
Spread: Raiders (+7)

Texans @ Jets (-6.5)
The Texans are their usual up and down selves.  The Jets find ways to win and are in a tight battle with the Pats in the AFC East.  They can't afford a letdown.

Straight Up: Jets
Spread: Texans (+6.5)

Ravens @ Panthers (+13.5)
The Panthers are in trouble with the Ravens coming off an extra few days of rest.  Ravens are another team that can't afford to drop this one.

Straight Up: Ravens
Spread: Ravens (-13.5)


Redskins @ Titans (-7)
The Redskins secondary is struggling and they will be in man to man a lot to load the box against CJ.

Straight Up: Titans
Spread: Titans (-7)

Lions @ Cowboys (-5.5)
Last week the Cowboys looked like they could've been in the Super Bowl this year.  Too bad it's too late.

Straight Up: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)

Packers @ Vikings (+3)
I don't really know why except to say that, as a lifetime Favre fan, this might be my last chance to pick him to win.

Straight Up: Vikings
Spread: Vikings (+3)

Bills @ Bengals (-4.5)
Bengals are out, so are the Bills.  Buffalo won't be as hungry now that they removed the goose egg.  Too much talent on the Bengals.

Straight Up: Bengals
Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

Browns @ Jags (-2.5)
The Browns are playing better football than the Jags, who just haven't impressed me despite a 5-4 record.

Straight Up: Browns
Spread: Browns (+2.5)

Cardinals @ Chiefs (-7)
The Chiefs need to rebound after last weeks loss.  Derek Anderson doesn't scare anyone.

Straight Up: Chiefs
Spread: Cardinals (+7)

Seahawks @ Saints (-11)
Saints are at home and need to keep pace with the Falcons.  Seahawks cover.

Straight Up: Saints
Spread: Seahawks (+11)

Falcons @ Rams (+3.5)
Falcons right now are the best team in football.  The Rams are a young team with promise but they aren't in the same league as Atlanta yet.

Straight Up: Falcons
Spread: Falcons

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5)
This should be a great one.  The Bucs are getting little respect (evidence by the 3.5 road dogs) but the Niners are a different team with Troy Smith at QB.  I think the Niners can creep back into the playoff race in the terrible NFC West.

Straight Up: Niners
Spread: Niners (-3.5)

Colts @ Patriots (-4.5)
Best game of the year so far.  I'll split the decision

Straight Up: Patriots
Spread: Colts (+4.5)

Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
Mike Vick was amazing last week.  I expect an encore.  If he doesn't get hurt, I see him as the MVP and the Eagles in the NFC Championship against the Falcons.

Straight Up: Eagles
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

Broncos @ Chargers (-9)
The Chargers are now favoured to win the AFC West in Vegas.  If this game was in Denver I think it might be different.  The Chargers play very well at home and this divisional game can't be overlooked.  Monday night games are typically closer (minus last weeks Vick experience).  The key will be whether or not the Chargers pass rush can get to Orton, if not, they have a very good chance.

Straight Up: Chargers
Spread: Broncos (+9)

Week 10 Pick'em

Bengals @ Colts (-7)
Colts are in the playoff race at home.  Bengals season is over.

vs Spread: Colts (-7)
Straight Up: Colts

Texans @ Jaguars (pick)
This is the type of game the Texans win to inspire their fans again, then they lose next week.  The Jags have a good D-line but the rest of their team is still in rebuilding mode.

vs Spread: Texans
Straight Up: Texans

Titans @ Dolphins (pick)
Chris Johnson will benefit from the addition of Randy Moss.  Chad Pennington will play smart football but he won't be able to hang with the Titans in explosion plays.

vs Spread: Titans
Straight Up: Titans

Vikings @ Bears (+1)
The Bears are slipping and they nearly blew it last week against the Bills in Toronto.  The Vikings locker room is a circus, but Adrian Peterson is as consistent as gravity.

vs Spread: Vikings (-1)
Straight Up: Vikings

Lions @ Bills (-1)
How the Bills are favoured, I have no idea.  The Lions are 7-1 this year against the spread and if they cover this week? They win.

vs Spread: Lions (+1)
Straight Up: Lions

Jets @ Browns (+3)
This is a tough matchup for the Browns.  The Jets should limit Peyton Hillis and Colt McCoy will struggle with every one of his receivers matched up against a better defensive back.  The Jets need a road win to restore confidence.

vs Spread: Jets (-3)
Straight Up: Jets

Panthers @ Bucs (-7)
I'm not sold on the Bucs but Josh Freeman looks good and they are at home.  Panthers start Mike Goodson at RB and Jimmy Clausen at QB.

vs Spread: Bucs (-7)
Straight Up: Bucs

Chiefs @ Broncos (+1)
Bye week or not, the Broncos can't stop the run.  And the Chiefs are great at running the ball.

vs Spread: Chiefs (-1)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Rams @ Niners (-5)
The Rams have overachieved early.  The Niners have underachieved early.  Time for the balance to be restored.

vs Spread: Niners (-5)
Straight Up: Niners

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-4)
Two teams that are all over the board with how they play on Sunday.  Clipboard Jesus looked more like Judas last week.

vs Spread: Cardinals (-4)
Straight Up: Cardinals

Cowboys @ Giants (-12.5)
Jason Garret has an uphill battle with this team, but a road game and a new coach may be just what the doctor ordered.  Ok, maybe not, but I think it'll be closer.

vs Spread: Cowboys (+12.5)
Straight Up: Cowboys

Patriots @ Steelers (-5)
This should be a dandy.  Steelers ability to run the ball and stop the run is the difference.

vs Spread: Patriots (+5)
Straight Up: Steelers

Eagles @ Redskins (+3)
Mike Vick is one of, if not the most dangerous quarterback in the league.  Donovan McNabb apparently needs to hit the treadmill.

vs Spread: Eagles (-3)
Straight Up: Eagles

Season Straight Up: 72-58
Season vs Spread: 58-65-5

Thursday Night Pick'em

Ravens @ Falcons (-1)

Great way for NFL Network to kick-off this seasons coverage with a battle of division leaders.  The Falcons are missing Sean Weatherspoon and Roddy White is going to be playing injured.  Even though the Ravens play good defence, I have a feeling we are in for a shootout.  I'd be really going against the odds by betting against Matt Ryan at home (17-1).

vs Spread: Falcons (-1)
Straight Up: Falcons

Week 9 Pick'em

Bears @ Bills (+3)

The Bills have lost the last two games in overtime, proof that this team is still competing despite its 0-7 record.  Buffalo is ranked last in rush defense allowing 188 yards per game.  Good thing Chicago’s rush offence is no better (27^th averaging 88 yards per game).  Buffalo has allowed 15 passing touchdowns and only have one interception this year (early Christmas for Cutler).  

Vs Spread: Bears (-3)

Straight Up: Bears

Chargers @ Texans (+3)

The key here will be the health of Antonio Gates.  If he plays the Chargers should come away with the win.  If not, I just don’t know if there are enough weapons for Phil Rivers to make plays.  I’ll go with the Chargers but check back before kickoff.

Vs Spread: Chargers (-3)

Straight Up: Chargers

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

The Saints dressed up as their former selves last Sunday for Halloween.  Was it a special occasion or are they getting back into rhythm on offence?  Either way the Panthers give me no reason to expect an upset.

Vs Spread: Saints (-6.5)

Straight Up: Saints

Cardinals @ Vikings (-8)

The Cardinals should have never gotten rid of Matt Leinart.  They have the worst quarterbacks in the league now and even if Favre shows up in a wheelchair, the Vikings will beat the Cardinals.  As always, expect Adrian Peterson to run angry this weekend.

Vs Spread: Vikings (-8)

Straight Up: Vikings

Bucs @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Buc stops here.  Matt Ryan doesn’t lose in the Georgia Dome and the Falcons just have more talent all over the field than the Bucs.  They’ll play the Falcons close, but this game will mark the beginning of Tampa’s second half slide.

Vs Spread: Bucs (+8.5)

Straight Up: Falcons

Jets @ Lions (+4.5)

There are a lot of intriguing matchups in this game.  First and foremost Megatron makes his first visit to Revis Island.  No doubt Revis is a great player, but I expect Calvin to take this opportunity to show everyone just how good he is.  The Lions are 6-1 against the spread this year.  Jets receivers considerably outmatch the Lions Secondary.

Vs Spread: Lions (+4.5)

Straight Up: Jets

Dolphins @ Ravens (-5)

The Dolphins are undefeated on the road so far this season but they are travelling to Baltimore, a notoriously tough place to play.  The addition of Ed Reed is huge to the Ravens and I’ll be on him over Chad Henne.

Vs Spread: Dolphins (+5)

Straight Up: Ravens

Patriots @ Browns (+4.5)

Some analysts have mentioned that Eric Mangini’s knowledge of the Patriots will help him in this game.  I’d argue Bill Belichick’s knowledge of Eric Mangini is a bigger advantage.  The Patriots rarely underestimate teams and they know they need to stay ahead of the Jets and Dolphins.

Vs Spread: Patriots (-4.5)

Giants @ Seahawks (+7)

The Seahawks play much better football at home and their secondary is playing extremely well.  Earl Thomas may be the x-factor in this game.  I expect the Giants to win, but the Seahawks should cover a touchdown.

Vs Spread: Seahawks (+7)

Straight Up: Giants

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1)

Both teams run the football extremely well (1 and 2 in the NFL).  The Chiefs stop the run, the Raiders don’t.  I also think the Chiefs coaching staff is stronger than the Raiders (not physically, settle down Cable).  

Vs Spread: Chiefs (+1)

Straight Up: Chiefs

Colts @ Eagles (-3)

Mike Vick returns, but he faces a stiff challenge.  Say what you want about the Colts defense, but they are FAST.  Don’t expect Vick to have many big runs.  Peyton Manning came in at #8 in NFL Network’s countdown of the top 100 players of all time.  Ya, I’ll go with him.

Vs Spread: Colts (+3)

Straight Up: Colts

Cowboys @ Packers (-7)

It’s too bad because before the season this looked like a great Sunday nighter.  The Cowboys were pathetic last week against the Jaguars and that was at home.  Maybe the fact that they are on the road and are out of the playoff hunt will let them play loose.  That should’ve been the case last week against a much weaker Jags team.

Vs Spread: Packers (-7)

Straight Up: Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+5)

This is a must-win game for the Bengals if they want to salvage the season.  For the first time this season, the Steelers looked average last Sunday night in New Orleans.  I think they’ll rebound in this hard-hitting affair.

Vs Spread: Bengals (+5)

Straight Up: Steelers

Season Straight Up: 62-55

Season vs Spread: 51-59-5

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
The Steelers are the most complete football team in the NFL.  They are top 3 on defence, run the ball extremely well and Big Ben makes big plays in the passing game.  As the weather gets colder, their formula of running and playing defence becomes more and more effective.

2.  New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots seem to have the tunnel vision that led them to all those titles during the dynasty years.  Trading their most productive receiver didn't even cause a hiccup and Deion Branch is proving to be one of the best acquisitions of the year.  The Pats get one of the best guards in football (Logan Mankins) back this week and their schedule down the stretch isn't exactly difficult.

3.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Despite suffering a rash of injuries to some very key players, Manning has the Colts sitting alone atop the AFC South.  Losing Dallas Clark for the year was critical, but if they can even get a few guys back healthy by the end of the year, this team will be threatening in the playoffs.  In all likelihood Peyton Manning will be the NFL MVP...again.

4.  Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise this year and a playoff berth would certainly solidify that.  The Raiders could contend in the division, but the Chiefs have an easier schedule down the home stretch.  they are running the ball extremely well and Jamaal Charles will be healthy and fresh due to his limited carries thus far.

5.  New York Jets (11-5)
The Jets offence stalled last week against the Green Bay Packers which is a bit of a concern considering the amount of weapons they have.  This team runs the ball and plays defence well enough to get them into the playoffs but if they want to go any further, it will come down to Mark Sanchez.

6.  Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
The Ravens got Ed Reed back at the perfect time.  He should shore up a weak secondary and let the front seven focus more on stopping the run.  Flacco has been inconsistent this season but he should play well enough to get them into the elimination round.

NFC

1.  Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
The Falcons have one of the easiest schedules for the remainder of the season and they understand how important home-field advantage will be for their Super Bowl aspirations.  Matt Ryan is 16-1 as a starter at home.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Michael Vick has been outstanding when healthy this season and he is 100% coming off the bye week.  DeSean Jackson is set to return soon and the defence is playing well enough to allow this team to snatch up the division title.

3.  Green Bay Packers (10-6)
The Packers have had an up and down start to the season but they may be hitting stride at the right time.  Clay Matthews is healthy and has been a force to be reckoned with.  Rodgers is one of the better quarterbacks in the league and their offensive line has played exceptional.  Two burning questions: can they run the ball when they need to with Brandon Jackson and are the injuries along the D-line too much to overcome?

4.  Seattle (8-8)
Someone has to win this division, why not the Seahawks.  The Rams could easily be in this spot as well but I think the difference is the Seahawks play tougher at home and the weather in the North West plays to their strengths.

5.  New York Giants (10-6)
The Giants will be in the divisional fight until the final weekend, but ultimately I see them grabbing the #1 wildcard spot.  Hakeem Nicks has been spectacular this season and Eli Manning has an arsenal of weapons on offence.  The defence is improving week to week and Osie Umenyiora is a candidate for defensive player of the year.

6.  Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
Ok, hear me out.  The teams they have lost to this season are a combined 25-12 and four of their five losses have come on the road.  The combined records of opponents for the rest of the season is 31-34 and they play 5 of their next 7 at home.  They need to run the ball with Adrian Peterson and their defensive line needs to finally show up, but Arizona may be the perfect medicine for this struggling team.  If the Saints go 9-7, they could suffer from the head-to-head loss.

Halftime Awards

As we reach the midway point of the NFL season, it is time to handout the Redzone awards for the first half of the season.

MVP - Peyton Manning

The incumbent winner is back at the top spot again and should tie Brett Favre for consecutive MVP’s with 3.  You can argue that he has won this award too much and we should give someone else a chance, but you can’t argue that he is the unquestioned MVP of his team and the NFL.  In just seven games, Manning has thrown 15 TD’s to only 2 interceptions.  He has given up the least amount of sacks, which is a testament to his ability to feel pressure and get rid of the football.  The Colts are 5-2 despite a rash of injuries.  Proof enough is that if Austin Collie, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullit all were healthy but Manning was not, this team is likely 2-5 at best.  

In the Hunt – Tom Brady and Matt Ryan

Again, no surprise that Tom is in the hunt.  His ratio of 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions is solid and as usual he has the Patriots sitting atop the AFC at 6-1.  If he can lead the Pats to the best record in the AFC, it will once again become the argument between stats and wins.  

Matt Ryan is 16-1 at home in his career.  If this team can secure home field advantage in the playoffs, look out.  His stats are not as impressive as some of the other QB’s in the league, but a 12:5 ratio of TD’s to picks is solid.  The Falcons are 5-2.  If he continues his strong play and gets the Falcons anywhere North of 11-5, he’s in the discussion.

Dark horse: Mike Vick, Vince Young

Before his injury, Vick was the MVP of the league.  In 3.5 games he has passed for 800 yards, thrown 6 touchdowns with no interceptions, and has rushed for 187 yards and a TD.  The injury has set him back, but if he returns to the same form for the rest of the year, he could make a push.  Vince Young is another guy who has had injuries slow him down this season.  He does have the highest QB rating in the NFL right now though.  The big question is can he stay healthy?

Need wins: Phil Rivers

If somehow Phil Rivers can get the Chargers into the playoffs, he should definitely be a candidate for MVP.  For all the talk of Favre, Cutler and Rodgers throwing downfield, Rivers dwarfs them by averaging a whopping 8.66 yards per attempt.  That is well higher than anyone else in the league.  He also leads the league in passing yards per game with 331.  He may not get there this year, but Rivers is one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the NFL, year in and year out.  

Defensive Player of the Year - Osie Umenyiora


Umenyiora is second in the NFL in sacks with 8, trailing Clay Matthews (9.5).  Here's the difference: Umenyiora has forced seven fumbles.  He has mastered the sack fumble which means that instead of dropping quarterbacks for a big loss, he generates turnovers.  Winning in today's NFL is done by creating turnovers and holding onto the ball.  Osie accomplishes the turnover part.


In the hunt - Lawrence Timmons, DeAngelo Hall, Clay Matthews


If Polamalu is Butch Cassidy, then Timmons is the Sundance Kid.  He may not be the leader of the Steelers' D, but he is the reason they rank near the top in all defensive categories this season.  He is 4th in the NFL in tackles with 74, has 3 sacks and an interception.  DeAngelo Hall has great stats, although they were inflated by Jay Cutler in one game.  That being said, he is tied for 13th in the league in tackles (a very impressive feat for a corner), to go along with his league leading 6 interceptions (4 vs Cutler).  Had Matthews not missed time due to the hamstring injury he would likely be the leading candidate at this point.  Nonetheless, if he can stay healthy, he will be getting votes come January.  

Rookie of the Year Offense – Sam Bradford

There are a lot of great candidates for this award in 2010.  Unfortunately for them, it has already been awarded to Sam Bradford.  He has thrown more touchdowns (11) than interceptions (8) and more importantly has the Rams in the playoff race.  Wait what?  Is that the same Rams that were 1-15 last season?  Pretty much, and the fact that he has them playing .500 football is outstanding.

Runner-ups - Mike Williams and Dez Bryant

Mike Williams slid in the draft due to character concerns but the Bucs and Josh Freeman must be thrilled they took a chance on him in the fourth round.  Greg Jennings has one more yard and one more touchdown than Williams at this point in the season.  Williams’ play is a big reason the Bucs are 5-2.  

Despite the horror show going on in Dallas, Jerry Jones must be thrilled that he didn’t pass on Bryant like he did Randy Moss.  In an offence with many options, Bryant is on pace for 60 catches, 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.  He also has 2 punt return touchdowns on only 12 returns.  

Rookie of the Year Defense – Ndamukong Suh

I did some searching through the NFL chronicles and I’m fairly certain this would be the first time ever the #1 and #2 overall picks in the draft where the offensive and defensive rookies of the year.  Suh is a beast.  No stats are needed to describe how dominant he has been this season.  His initial surge is unmatched and if you haven’t seen him play this year, tune in on Sunday and focus in on #90.  Ok fine, the fact that he is on pace for 13 sacks, 2 interceptions and 2 touchdowns can’t hurt.

In the Hunt – Earl Thomas 

Earl Thomas leads his team in solo tackles and is tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions.  He is a ball-hawk in every sense of the word and his man to man cover skills are as good as at least half the corners in the NFL.

Comeback Player of the Year – Michael Vick

Even if you can’t forgive him, you have to admire the way he took ownership for a terrible crime and has come back and done all the right things.  He has been gracious for getting a second chance, hasn’t complained at all about playing time and has tried his best to turn his life around.  All while playing arguably the best football of his career.

Week 8 Pick'em

Broncos vs 49ers (-2) @ London
The Niners are not translating talent into wins.  The Broncos are winning games with a much less talented roster.  Josh McDaniels is a better coach than Mike Singletary.  I'll take the Broncos and apologize to the fans overseas that we can't send them more of a marquee matchup.

Spread: Broncos (+2)
Straight Up: Broncos

Jaguars @ Cowboys (-6.5)
Kitna will get the start at home for the injured Tony Romo.  Romo isn't solely responsible for the 'Boys dismal season, but perhaps Kitna will provide a change.  The Jags secondary is very weak.  If nothing else, the Cowboys need to win, to give Jerry Jones something.  Dez Bryant is an emerging star.

Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
Straight Up: Cowboys

Redskins @ Lions (-2.5)
The Lions coming off a bye week pose a big threat to the Redskins.  Matt Stafford looks to return, but am I supposed to believe that he'll last more than a half with Brian Orakpo coming off the edge against Jeff Backus?

Spread: Redskins (+2.5)
Straight Up: Redskins

Packers @ Jets (-6)
The Jets are one of the few preseason favourites that is living up to the hype.  They will be healthy, coming off a bye week, and Green Bay is banged up.  The Packers have a good receiver core and threaten teams by spreading out the formation.  Unfortunately for them, the Jets have the best secondary in the NFL.

Spread: Packers (+6)
Straight Up: Jets

Panthers @ Rams (-3)
Don't look now, but if the season ended today, the Rams would be in the playoffs.  The Panthers have been an up and down team, despite their record and without DeAngelo Williams, they will lack the freshness in the backfield that they are used to.

Spread: Rams (-3)
Straight Up: Rams

Dolphins @ Bengals (-1)
Carson Palmer looked great last week.  If the Bengals want to have a chance, he needs to continue to play well.  If Brandon Marshall can have his way with the Bengals secondary the way Roddy White did last week, this could be a shootout.

Spread: Bengals (-1)
Straight Up: Bengals

Bills @ Chiefs (-7.5)
The Chiefs are one of the best at running the football and the Bills are the worst at stopping the run.  Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good running Chan Gailey's offence, and it wouldn't surprise me if this was close.

Spread: Bills (+7.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Titans @ Chargers (-3.5)
It sounds like Vince Young will start at quarterback this week.  I wonder if he will have the same chemistry with Kenny Britt that Kerry Collins showed last week.  The Chargers play better at home and need the win more than the Titans.

Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
Straight Up: Chargers

Bucs @ Cardinals (-3)
The Bucs are another surprise team, that has themselves in the thick of the playoff race.  The Cardinals have zero consistency this year but the last time they were at home, they beat the defending world champions.

Spread: Cardinals (-3)
Straight Up: Cardinals

Seahawks @ Raiders (-2.5)
The Raiders ran over the Broncos last week.  I feel like a broken record, but the Seahawks have lacked consistency all year.  I'll go with the team that is playing better at this point in the season and is at home.

Spread: Raiders (-2.5)
Straight Up: Raiders

Vikings @ Patriots (-6)
Will the streak come to an end?  I doubt it, but if it's a hobbled Favre or Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings will be running the football a lot.  The Patriots aren't great at stopping the run, and the Vikings play good defence.

Spread: Vikings (+6)
Straight Up: Patriots

Steelers @ Saints (-1)
The Steelers are the better football team this year.  They run the ball better than the Saints, they play better defence than the Saints and lately Drew Brees hasn't given me any reason to think their aerial attack is superior to Big Ben.

Spread: Steelers (+1)
Straight Up: Steelers

Texans @ Colts (-5.5)
It worked last time.  Peyton Manning in primetime?

Spread: Colts (-5.5)
Straight Up: Colts

Season Straight Up:  54-48
Season vs Spread: 45-52-5