Throughout the history of football, coaches have developed new schemes, formations and philosophies to try and give their team a competitive edge. As every football fan has heard, the NFL is a ‘copycat’ league and when teams have success doing things a certain way, it is not long before other teams begin to implement aspects of their playbook. For evidence, look at how popular Bill Walsh’s 49ers made the west coast offence or how many teams adapted the Dolphins wildcat formation last season. As opposing offences change, defensive coordinators alter their own schemes to ensure that they matchup better. It’s an ongoing game of cat and mouse.
In the 1990’s the most common defense was the 4-3 and only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills ran the 3-4. When Bill Belichick took over in New England he implemented the 3-4, which he ran as the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants when they won Super Bowls in 1986 and ’90. The Patriots and Steelers won five of the last 10 Super Bowls with dominant defense and other teams took notice. Over the last five years there has been a mass exodus away from the 4-3 and toward the 3-4. Analysts and sports writers were quick to describe the 3-4 as the ‘optimal’ defense to matchup against today’s pass heavy offenses. As football fans watched Peyton Manning consistently struggle against the Patriots defense, many began to believe that having an extra linebacker made it harder for quarterbacks to read the coverage and identify blitzes. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at some factors that often go overlooked.
First off it is important to understand that the personnel required for either defense are very different. Below is a chart that lists the average weight of NFL starters at their respective position.
Weight in Pounds of Average NFL Starter
What this table makes very clear is that a different type of personnel is required for each of these defenses. In a 4-3, outside linebackers are required to cover a larger area of the field in run support and drop into pass coverage more often than those in the 3-4. Therefore, these players are on average 17 pounds lighter. 3-4 outside linebackers spend more time rushing the passer and therefore are heavier to aid them in their matchups with offensive linemen around the line of scrimmage.
Defensive linemen in the 3-4 are given the job of eating up space. Their goal is to occupy offensive linemen so that their linebackers can roam free and make plays. In a 4-3 defensive linemen have different responsibilities. The defensive ends are the primary pass rushers (OLB are in a 3-4) and therefore they must be quicker than 3-4 ends. The two defensive tackles in a 4-3 have different responsibilities. The 1-technique (lines up closest to the centre) is typically more of a run stopper and is heavier than the 3-technique, whose job is to penetrate the offensive line and cause disruption in the backfield. It is no surprise, based on their very different job requirements, that 3-4 defensive linemen outweigh 4-3 d-linemen by roughly 23 pounds on average.
Let's look at a few players to prove the aforementioned job descriptions. Over the last decade, Richard Seymour and Julius Peppers have to be considered two of the best defensive ends in the NFL. Seymour played DE in the 3-4 and Peppers in the 4-3. In 8 seasons, Peppers has amassed 81 sacks, whereas Seymour has only 43 sacks in 9 seasons. Even though he has roughly half the sacks, Seymour plays his role better than most (taking on blockers and turning himself into an imovable force at the line of scrimmage). Still not convinced? How about the interior linemen?
Ask anyone who knows something about the NFL and they will tell youthat Kevin Williams and Vince Wilfork are two of the games best interior defenders. Williams plays DT (3-technique) in the Vikings 4-3 defence, whereas Wilfork plays NT in the Patriots 3-4 scheme. In 6 seasons Wilfork has only 7.5 sacks. In 7 seasons, Williams has 48.5 sacks. Again, Wilfork is simply doing his job as a space eater and shouldn't be evaluated on sack production the way Williams is.
Now that we are clear on the differences regarding personnel, let’s look at how teams acquire players and what impact this has on the success of each scheme.
The primary infusion of talent into the NFL comes ever year via the Draft. The vast majority of players drafted come from the NCAA which represents the talent pool for future NFL talent. The college ranks are full of players of all different sizes who have various skill sets. Regardless of what schemes NFL teams are running, the talent pool in the NCAA is relatively constant. At the start of the decade, when only a few teams were running the 3-4, the demand for a certain breeds of player was fairly low. For example, nose tackles that weighed over 330 pounds with limited mobility were passed over by most teams running the 4-3 because they didn’t ‘fit the scheme’. In essence it’s a numbers game. With 30 teams fighting over one type of personnel, and only 2 teams fighting over the other, it is no surprise that the 2 teams in the minority are going to stockpile talent.
A perfect example of a guy who may have slipped through the cracks is Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil is 5’11 and weighs 250lbs. Scouts for 4-3 teams would say he’s undersized to play defensive end and his height would indicate that his arms are too short. At the combine he ran a 4.78 which isn’t slow, but makes him too slow to play linebacker in a 4-3. For a 3-4 team like Denver, he is the perfect mold for an OLB and has proved this over the last few seasons. There are many more cases like Dumervil: Would Dwight Freeney be effective in a 3-4? Would Demarcus Ware be the menace he is if he played a traditional end position?
As I mentioned earlier, sports writers were quick to anoint the 3-4 as the optimal defence in today’s NFL after seeing how much opposing quarterbacks struggled against the Patriots and Steelers. As an ex-quarterback, I can tell you it is not more difficult based on the way they line up. It is more difficult because you spend less time preparing to play against that alignment. When the Colts would play the Patriots and Steelers once a year, they only spent 2 out of 16 weeks watching film and studying up on the 3-4. This also meant the offensive line wasn't used to picking up the various rushers that come from 3-4 linebackers. It was foreign to them and that is why it was so successful.
As more and more teams switch to the 3-4, the balance will be restored. Quarterbacks are already becoming as comfortable playing against the 3-4 as the 4-3 and the drafting/personnel benefits regarding the static talent pool will be negated in equilibrium (when an equal number of teams run the 3-4 and 4-3). However, if the pendulum swings the other way, and the majority of NFL teams run 3-4 defences, don’t be surprised if 4-3 defences begin to reign supreme. As unconventional as it may seem, perhaps coming up with a brand new scheme that requires its own specific personnel group would be worth considering…if someone out there is brave enough to test it…
Pete Carroll wasted no time putting his stamp on the Seahawks and receives my highest offseason grade of the 32 NFL teams. He found the ideal replacement for retired LT Walter Jones in Russell Okung, the best tackle prospect in the draft. He should anchor the Seahawks left side for the next ten years. With their second pick in the first round, the Seahawks grabbed safety Earl Thomas who is one of the best prospects in the entire draft. He lacks Eric Berry’s size but makes more plays on the ball. Getting WR Golden Tate where they did was great value. Tate isn’t the best route runner but is outstanding with the ball in his hands and should immediately start in the slot where he can get favourable matchups. The Seahawks gave up very little to acquire QB Charlie Whitehurst from the Chargers. Whitehurst is a promising young quarterback and, at the very least, his presence will make sure Hasselbeck doesn’t get complacent. They also acquired Leon Washington for next to nothing and he will pair with Justin Forsett to give the Seahawks a lot of speed in the backfield. To sum up, the Seahawks were able to find their left tackle of the future, a supreme talent at free safety, an explosive receiver with big play ability, a relatively young quarterback with upside and a speed back who is dangerous in the return game. Christmas came early in the Northwest.
San Francisco 49ers (Grade: A)
If the Seahawks had the best offseason, the 49ers were a close second. I will point out that both teams had an advantage in that they had two high first round picks as assets, but hey, they made good use of them. The Niners are really molding into a Mike Singletary team and nothing made that more clear than the two first round picks of tackle Anthony Davis and guard Mike Iupati. Davis will need some work, but could eventually supplant Joe Staley on the left side (moving Staley over to the right). Iupati is a mauler in the run game and Frank Gore should be ecstatic about these guys joining the team. My prediction is that San Fran has the best O-line in football in 2 years. Singletary also picked a player that fits his mold in safety Taylor Mays out of USC. His pass defense has been called into question, but his potential is through the roof due to his rare blend of size and speed. My guess is Singletary will find a place for him that plays to his strengths. The addition of Ted Ginn Jr will immediately upgrade their return game. Utilizing him in the slot for his straight line speed could help stretch opposing defenses. Bottom Line: I see the Niners winning the NFC West this season, barely edging out the Cardinals.
St. Louis Rams (Grade: B-)
The Rams held the #1 overall pick in the draft and with it, they selected quarterback Sam Bradford who becomes the new face of the franchise. There are always question marks regarding the first overall pick in the draft, especially when it is a quarterback. Bradford is no different. Some say he will struggle converting to an NFL offence after running the spread attack at Oklahoma. Others question his durability after having serious shoulder injuries during his 2009 season. Regardless of how his career turns out, the Rams made the right decision picking him. Ignore the PR talk that they needed someone to inspire the fan base and provide hope for the future. Football clubs should not make picks to appease their fans. They made the right pick because they needed a quarterback, desperately. The Rams would be wise to sit Bradford till at least midway through the season. They are far from playoff contenders and bringing Bradford along slowly gives him a higher probability of success. I like their second round pick Roger Saffold, the OT from Indiana. Pairing him with last year’s 2nd overall pick Jason Smith should, at least on paper, give the Rams their book-end tackles for the next 10 years. These guys will be given the responsibility of protecting Bradford and the millions of dollars he is set to make. Jerome Murphy, a corner from South Florida, adds some talent to a weak secondary and receiver Mardy Gillyard will provide a spark on offence, but this offseason will be judged on Bradford. Quick, name someone that the Colts or Chargers drafted in ‘98 that aren’t named Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf!......Didn’t think so.
Arizona Cardinals (Grade: B-)
The Cardinals, not necessarily by choice, had a very active off-season. Let’s start with the departures. LB Karlos Dansby left for Miami, S Antrel Rolle moved to the big apple and Anquan Boldin was dealt to the Ravens. All three are top 10 in the NFL at their respective positions and when you throw in the retirement of future hall of famer Kurt Warner, the Cardinals seem to be in some trouble for 2010. That being said, the Cards did a good job trying to restock the cupboard (or stop the bleeding). They drafted the best player available in NT Dan Williams who, alongside Darnell Docket, gives the Cards a powerful, young defensive line. Veteran Joey Porter was brought in to provide leadership and replace some of Dansby’s production and S Kerry Rhodes is an upgrade over Antrel Rolle, in my opinion. I also like their second round pick Daryl Washington out of TCU. He is extremely athletic for his size and, under the guidance of Joey Porter, could develop into a feared edge rusher. Arizona picked up QB Derek Andersen from the Browns to add some depth following Warner’s retirement. I’m a big believer in Matt Leinart and look for 2010 to be his breakout year.
I have come to admire the way Josh McDaniels handles his business. He is not prepared to put up with players that don’t fit his culture. This is strikingly similar to how Bill Belichick used to conduct business until he felt the culture he had created was strong enough to bring in ‘troubled’ personalities. The Broncos got a ‘decent’ return for Brandon Marshall and hope that first round pick Demaryius Thomas will develop into his replacement. Thomas has great size and speed but needs to improve his route running. The big move though was drafting Tim Tebow. Tebow is lucky to go to Denver and get coached by Josh McDaniels, one of the best QB coaches in the league. He also doesn’t have any pressure to play right away with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn on the roster. I also liked the addition of Brady Quinn, a talented young quarterback who was run out of Cleveland. Ultimately this offseason will be judged on how Tim Tebow does in the coming years and whether or not the Broncos will struggle to find a replacement for Brandon Marshall. I have faith in McDaniels and believe this team will finish around the .500 mark this year, but will look good for 2011.
Oakland Raiders (Grade:A+++….for the Raiders)
Raider nation should be ecstatic that Al Davis did not pull another workout warrior out of his hat in the first round. Rolando McClain is the highest drafted inside linebacker of the decade but could perform up to that standard. He is athletic, hits hard and has good instincts. McClain, along with Thomas Howard and recently acquired Kamerion Wimbley, give the Raiders a formidable core at the linebacker position. Lamarr Houston is explosive for a nose tackle and will immediately compete for playing time on the defensive line. Al Davis still got his workout warriors but this year he did so at great value. Bruce Campbell’s raw talent is the highest in the draft and getting him in the fourth round was a steal. Tom Cable had him at guard in the OTA’s which is a great place for him to learn while making an immediate impact. As far as the QB situation is concerned, I had Russell pegged as a bust since before the draft. His Sugar Bowl performance elevated his status but what people forget is Notre Dame had the 97th ranked pass defense in Division 1A whereas LSU had the 3rd. It’s not surprising that Russell outshone Quinn in that game. I’m glad that Al Davis was able to let go of JaMarcus and move on. Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski will provide stability at that position which will pay dividends this season.
San Diego Chargers (Grade: C+)
The Chargers must’ve had reason to believe that a team was getting ready to move up and take Ryan Matthews. That’s the only justification for moving up that far to pick him. Matthews is a talented running back but I think they reached to get him. I really like Donald Butler at ILB in the 3rd round. He could end up being a better NFL player than Rolando McClain. Not picking a NT in the draft makes the release of Jamaal Williams harder to swallow, but the Chargers are high on the youth they have at the position and could still sign a veteran free-agent. Releasing LT was a necessary move, as sad as it is to see him end his time in San Diego without a Super Bowl. Even though the Chargers lost more than they added, this team will once again win the division and challenge for the AFC Championship.
Kansas City Chiefs (Grade: B)
Scott Pioli went away from his traditional draft philosophy and took two playmakers with his first two picks. I really like the Eric Berry pick at #5. Some say it was too high to select a safety, but Berry is a hard-hitting ballhawk with great range. All the characteristics you want out of a safety. His ability to make plays on the ball will result in at least one, if not two more wins for the Chiefs this season. In my opinion they reached a bit to grab Dexter McCluster, the RB/WR from Ole Miss. He is made in the image of Darren Sproles and will provide a spark for the Chiefs out of the backfield, at receiver and in the return game. I was surprised they didn’t select Jimmy Clausen after he slid to the second round. I do believe Matt Cassel will rebound from last season, but it never hurts to have some competition at the position, especially considering Clausen played under new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis for 3 years at Notre Dame. Javier Arenas will likely be a rotational DB for his career which is why I’m surprised the Chiefs took him in the second round. I like them picking Jon Asamoah, a powerful guard out of Illinois in the 3rd round. Tony Moeaki is a developmental project at TE with lots of upside.
New York Jets (Grade: A-)
The Jets had one of the busiest offseason in recent memory, which was even more surprising given the restrictions placed on the final eight teams with regards to free-agency. The team got rid of Thomas Jones, Alan Faneca and Leon Washington, and brought in Antonio Cromartie, LaDanian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes. Tomlinson is a better fit than Jones in the backfield due to the emergence of Shonn Greene. Greene will pound the ball between the tackles whereas LT will get 8-10 carries a game and be used more on third down where he excels at catching the ball out of the backfield. Leon Washington’s injuries have stunted his career and USC’s Joe McKnight can fill his role as the change of pace back/kick-returner. On defense, Cromartie’s aggressive style of play fits perfectly with Rex Ryan’s scheme. Since he will always matchup against the opponents second receiver and get a lot of balls thrown his way (no one wants to throw on Darrel Revis) I believe he will have a Pro Bowl caliber season. The only move I didn’t like was releasing Alan Faneca. His veteran leadership is valuable as is his contribution to the run game. With no salary cap this season, I’m left scratching my head at this move. The Jets entire game plan is predicated on running the football. If rookie Vladimir Ducasse struggles to step in or the Jets suffer some injuries, the release of Faneca will be highly scrutinized. The Jets first round pick, CB Kyle Wilson is a physical man-to-man player who will step in as the nickel and will allow Rex Ryan the freedom to dial up his exotic blitzes.
Miami Dolphins (Grade: A-)
The big storyline here is obviously the trade for Brandon Marshall. The Dolphins had a serious void at receiver and filled it with arguably the best young receiver in the game. He single-handedly adds a dimension to this offence that they didn’t have before and Chad Henne should post career numbers this season. Sigining ILB Karlos Dansby improves the front seven considerably. His speed and range will allow the edge defenders focus more on rushing the passer. Bill Parcells traded down in the first round to accumulate more picks (since he lost a handful in the Marshall deal), and selected DE Jared Odrick from Penn State. Odrick was thought of highly by most teams that run the 3-4 defense and the ‘Fins needed help along their D-line. I also like Koa Misi and he will likely be used in a rotation at the start as he adapts to the OLB position. John Jerry is a powerful guard prospect who fits nicely in Miami’s straight ahead run offence.
New England Patriots (Grade: B+)
There are a lot of people out there who thought the Patriots should’ve selected Dez Bryant but consider this. Next year will be the year of the receiver in the NFL Draft with Julio Jones, AJ Green and Malcolm Floyd all projected to go in the top 10. None of those players have the character concerns that Bryant had and remember that the Patriots hold two first round picks next year (Oakland’s from the Seymour deal). Randy Moss is aging but the Patriots will not require a replacement for him until at least next season. As usual, Bill Belichick traded down and amassed a number of picks that he used to upgrade his team all over. The Patriots picked Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes in the first two rounds to help fix the problems they had last year on defense. Cunningham has potential to be an effective pass rusher off the edge but will require some time to adjust to the hybrid position. His college teammate Spikes is a player I really like and fits nicely in the middle as a compliment to Jerod Mayo. Belichick picked two excellent TE’s early in the draft. Rob Gronkowski could be the next Jason Witten if he can stay out of the training room whereas Aaron Hernandez is more of a receiving threat but will create matchup problems for opposing linebackers. Zoltan Mesko went early for a punter but is very talented. Belichick knows the value of good special teams. In a division full of tough defenses, a quality punter that can win field position battles is essential.
Buffalo Bills (Grade: D)
I haven’t liked anything about the Bills offseason to this point. I thought they reached on Torell Troup and Alex Carrington, although they needed personnel to help switch to the 3-4. CJ Spiller to me was a luxury pick and the Bills don’t have enough talent on the roster to make luxury picks. Anthony Davis, Jimmy Clausen or even Dez Bryant should’ve been considered here. Now they have a stable of running backs but no line to block for them or their quarterback (whoever ends up lining up behind centre). They added no one worth noting in free agency and lost T.O. In my opinion the Bills will bottom out this year and finish dead last in the NFL (I can’t see them winning a game in their division). The Bills should take a good hard look at what the Rams did with their first two picks because next year they should do the same thing and select Washington Huskies quarterback Jake Locker and the best available OT at the top of round 2.
With the draft completed and the majority of free-agents signed, it's time to debut the 2010 offseason grades for all 32 NFL teams. These grades are based on the draft and what teams did with regards to trades and free-agent signings. Without further adieu....
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (Grade: B+)
The Dallas Cowboys offseason is somewhat of a mystery to me. They made a number of good moves and some that left me scratching my head. The big head scratcher is the release of Flozell Adams. I do not understand why, in an uncapped year, you would simply release an above average offensive tackle. Even if Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips want to give Doug Free a chance to start, there is no cost to them in keeping Adams. On the other hand, moving up to draft Dez Bryant was one of my favourite moves of the draft. It is nothing short of lunacy that he fell into the mid 20s and I guarantee he will make the teams that passed over him pay for it. I also really like the Sean Lee pick in the second round. Look for this guy to be an integral part of the Cowboys defense for years to come. He could emerge as the best ILB in this draft class. All in all it was a good offseason for the Boys except I think Jerry will be kicking himself if Doug Free goes down to injury as they enter the playoffs.
Washington Redskins (Grade: B+)
The Redskins offseason really comes down to two players: Donovan McNabb and Trent Williams. McNabb still has at least 3-4 good years left in him and fills a void the Redskins have been trying to fill for what seems like forever. Don’t be surprised if either Malcolm Kelly or David Thomas play better than many expect (see Sidney Rice with Favre..but not to the same extent). They didn’t get any younger in the backfield but certainly added some veteran talent in Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Adding Trent Williams in the draft was necessary, although I still think they should’ve gone with the safer pick in Okung. Nonetheless the Skins were able to fill their two biggest holes, QB and LT, this offseason with a perennial pro-bowler and a top 5 pick. Not bad.
Eagles (Grade: B)
I love Brandon Graham as a player (more as an OLB in the 3-4) but not more than I liked Earl Thomas at that point in the draft. Sure the Eagles took Nate Allen, a quality safety prospect, but let’s get to the point. The Kevin Kolb era is underway and I have to say I’m not a believer. It’s not that I doubt Kolb’s ability. I actually think he has the talent to succeed at the NFL level. The problem is, with the offseason moves Philly made, he has been put in one of the most pressurized situations I’ve ever seen for a first year starter (similar to Aaron Rodgers taking over for Favre). For most first year starting quarterbacks, a record of .500 or better is considered a good outcome. If Kolb were to go 8-8 in his first season as a starter, it should be seen as a great stepping stone. Not in Philly. Not when McNabb could lead a division rival to a better record. Not with Mike Vick waiting in the wings. Just wait and see what happens when Philly gets off to a slow start, McNabb plays well (as always) and reports of Vick looking good in practice/wildcat reps get to Philly fans….Sorry Kevin…It’s not you its Philly.
New York Giants (Grade: B-)
The Giants seem to be content with the pieces they have on offence. They didn’t add any big names in free-agency and the first four picks in the draft they went defense. Their moves this offseason reflect the organizations belief in the formula that won them a world championship: a stout defensive line. Inexperienced Jason Pierre-Paul has been tagged as the ultimate boom or bust pick in this year’s draft. He is the most athletic defensive end prospect to come out of college since maybe Jevon Kearse. He will require some time to adjust to the NFL level before he can be a difference maker. Linval Joseph, the powerful DT, will likely work in a rotation and his contribution will be more in stopping the run than getting after the opposing quarterback. In my opinion the Giants overpaid for Antrel Rolle, but adding depth with veteran Deon Grant and drafting LSU’s Chad Jones will allow Aaron Ross to move back to his natural corner position where he is much better suited. The biggest questions I have are who will play MLB and can the offence be Super Bowl caliber without a true #1 wideout. The Giants will be in the thick of the playoff race but I’m not sure they did enough to be much more than a wildcard team.
Well Football fans we are only hours away from the draft and it is shaping up to be a very action packed evening. I would expect no less than five trades within the first round (probably closer to seven). With all the expected activity, most mock drafts will look silly but hey, here's my best effort assuming the teams hold their picks. I also added a 'should pick' comment to the top 10 to outline my personal opinion as to who they should select. Enjoy! Follow me on Twitter at JansenWS for instant analysis on every pick.
#1. St Louis Rams – Sam Bradford QB
The pick here has to be Bradford. I don’t blame the Rams for taking Chris Long or Jason Smith because both seemed to be quality picks but the reality is the Rams passed on Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. They can’t afford to not pick a quarterback here because who knows when they will be in position to select one again. I’ll go on record saying that I believe Jimmy Clausen will be a better NFL player than Bradford but the Rams seem to prefer Bradford and must pick a QB.
Should pick: Sam Bradford
#2. Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh DT
If the Lions don’t trade their second round pick for either Albert Haynesworth or Jared Gaither, then they should pick Okung and take the best defensive player available at #34. I believe the Lions will lean towards Gaither/Suh over Haynesworth/Okung because of the financial cost of acquiring Haynesworth. The bottom line is the Lions MUST deal the #34 pick if they want to be taken seriously as a franchise. (See Lions Must Pounce at Rare Opportunity).
Should Pick: Ndamukong Suh (But MUST trade 2nd rounder for Jared Gaither. If not, Detroit deserves to continue losing)
#3. Tampa Bay Bucaneers – Gerald McCoy DT
With Suh off the board, the decision is made for the Bucs as they acquire this disruptive force who, for all intents and purposes looks like Warren Sapp 2.0.
Should Pick: Geraldy McCoy
#4. Washington Redskins – Russell Okung OT
The trade for Donovan McNabb filled the void at Quarterback and shifts the entire focus to replacing Chris Samuels at LT. This is the only pick the Redskins have in the top 100 which means they can’t afford to miss here. Some analysts believe Trent Williams is a better fit in Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme but Okung was a four year starter at tackle and was the consensus #1 tackle prospect going into the 2009 NCAA season. He maintained this grade and will do a great job protecting McNabb’s blindside.
Should Pick: Russell Okung
#5. Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga OT
Selecting a tackle here will have a trickledown effect that will result in a much improved offensive line. I believe the pick will be Bulaga given the history between Kirk Ferentz, Iowa’s Head Coach, and Scott Pioli. For those of you who don’t know, they worked on the Browns staff together where Ferentz was an offensive line coach. If Ferentz believes in Bulaga, I suspect Pioli will as well. Bulaga is a polished technician who can be inserted into the left tackle position from day one. This will allow current LT Branden Albert to move back to his natural guard position.
Don’t rule out Eric Berry as the Chiefs are also in need of a safety. However, we saw last year that Pioli prefers positional value over the best player available strategy when he picked Jackson over Curry. Upgrading the line is essential if the Chiefs want to know exactly what they have in Matt Cassel.
Should pick: Eric Berry
#6. Seattle Seahawks – Trent Williams OT
Seattle has a lot of needs, the most pressing being OT. Trent Williams’ stock has been rising since the combine and his athleticism and upside is intriguing. He is a perfect replacement for the aging Walter Jones.
Should Pick: Trent Williams
#7. Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry S
The Browns need to add more playmakers on both sides of the ball, period. Eric Berry fits the bill and is considered one of the top prospects in this class. The fact that he is a safety might keep him out of the top five but I’d be shocked if he slips past Cleveland here. Berry will immediately upgrade the secondary, an area of weakness, and give the defence a young leader.
Should Pick: Jimmy Clausen
#8. Oakland Raiders – Jason Pierre-Paul DE/OLB
Ok I caved. I really thought the Raiders would treat this draft with a little more caution that in the past but considering how blindly confident Al Davis seems to be in his ‘workout warrior’ strategy, I can only assume he will take an athlete here. Pierre-Paul is a better pick than Bruce Campbell as he has a higher grade and is widely considered one of the top three DE/OLB’s in the draft. If he can play to his potential he will be a nice addition to the Raiders front seven. NOTE: Don’t be surprised if this pick is traded for Ben Roethlisberger within the next 24 hours.
Should Pick: Anthony Davis
#9. Buffalo Bills – Anthony Davis OT
I think this is a reach for Anthony Davis but last season the Bills chose not to ‘reach’ for Michael Oher and look how that turned out. In no way am I comparing Davis to Oher but this is a situation where need has to outweigh best player available. Gailey has recently made some comments regarding the need to upgrade the offensive line and his commitment to running the ball. Taking the fourth tackle on the board at #9 overall is a tough pill to swallow but I think it’s the pick. With the way the AFC East is shaping up, I would be shocked if the Bills won a divisional game this year and I suspect they can address their quarterback next year with a top 3 pick.
Should Pick: Dez Bryant
#10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Earl Thomas S
Having been a Jags fan since 1997, I have watched the ups and downs of this franchise very closely. The biggest reason this team could not build on its success from a few years ago is their inability to hit on picks in the first round (See Leftwich, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Derrick Harvey, Marcedes Lewis).
Rashean Mathis’s play has declined in the last two seasons and when you’re looking to unseat the Colts, you better be able to rush the passer and cover receivers. I had Joe Haden here in my previous mock but I think Earl Thomas gets the slight edge here because he seems to be the safer pick while also providing the upgrade to the secondary that Haden would. Had Thomas decided to return for his senior season, Mack Brown was planning on moving him to corner, a testament to his athleticism and cover skills.
Should Pick: Earl Thomas
#11. Denver Broncos – Dez Bryant WR
A Josh McDaniels pass happy offense does not look very threatening with Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as the starting receivers. Dez Bryant is a top ten talent and adding him would allow Royal to play the slot, where he is more effective.
The Broncos do have needs on defence, primarily at NT, ILB and S, but with two second round picks they will have enough ammunition to move up and take a Terrence Cody, or one of the solid backers pegged in the second round such as Sean Lee or Brandon Spikes.
#12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams NT
At age 35, Jason Ferguson’s play has already started to taper off. A good nose tackle is vital to the success of any 3-4 defence and Bill Parcells knows this. Upgrading the OLB position is important but I think they can address this need in the second or third round.
#13. San Francisco 49ers – Joe Haden CB
Joe Haden is the top corner in the draft and a great value pick here for the 49ers. His stock fell after running slow at the combine (back problems) but alleviated concerns at his pro day when he clocked in the 4.4 range. Getting the best corner in the draft at #13 is a steal and fills a pressing need for San Fran.
#14. Seattle Seahawks – CJ Spiller RB
By satisfying the need at LT with the #6 overall pick, the Seahawks turn their attention to playmakers. Julius Jones is at best an NFL backup and Justin Forsett has explosive ability but is more of a change of pace back. Spiller is a top ten talent who will immediately bolster the Seahawks offense both running the ball and in the passing game. Combining him with Forsett gives the Seahawks a dangerous tandem in the backfield.
#15. New York Giants – Rolando McClain LB
I’ve had a change of heart with this pick and believe the Giants will take McClain over Derrick Morgan. He is the top inside linebacker in the draft and sets a physical tone, something Tom Coughlin will like. Questions about his speed make him a better fit for a 3-4 defence but he is great value at #15 and his smarts will make-up for his lack of elite speed.
#16. Tennessee Titans – Derrick Morgan DE
If either Pierre-Paul or Morgan are on the board when the Titans pick, they will be sprinting to hand in their draft card. Morgan is a great against the run and can rush the passer. He projects as a solid NFL starter. The Titans may elect to take the risk on Pierre-Paul. He has a rare blend of size and speed and there is no limit to his upside.
#17. San Francisco 49ers – Jimmy Clausen QB
I’m having a hard time placing Clausen and if he gets past the 49ers here, the next logical team that could pick him is the Vikings at #30. I would bet that Clausen is picked as a result of a trade up, but since we are going with the pick order, Clausen goes here. Upgrading the offensive line is also a need but taking the hometown kid is a great long term move for the franchise.
#18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Iupati OT
If Iupati and Kyle Wilson are on the board at this point, it could be a coin toss for the Steelers. Wilson fills the biggest need on the team while Iupati would help satisfy Art Rooney Jr.’s desire to return to the old smash mouth Steeler way. Back to the basics for the steelers.
#19. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Graham DE/OLB
The Falcons need to get to Drew Brees if they want to contend for the division title. Graham is a solid player who works hard, can rush the passer and is stout against the run.
#20. Houston Texans – Kyle Wilson CB
Unfortunately for Texans fans this pick is not an upgrade but rather a necessary replacement for Dunta Robinson. Kyle Wilson has great cover skills and didn’t get as much national attention playing for Boise State. When you play in the Colts division you better be able to cover.
#21. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermaine Gresham TE
I think Gresham was a better prospect last year than Brandon Pettigrew and he went 21st overall last year. If the Bengals are serious about winning a championship they need to give Carson Palmer the tools to succeed. He is a top quarterback in the NFL and has rebounded nicely from his serious knee injury. The NFL is a passing league and adding Gresham will give Palmer the best supporting cast since he had TJ and Chad. There has been talk of Taylor Mays going here because he fits nicely into Mike Zimmer’s scheme, but it’s time the Bengals spent a first round pick on helping Palmer.
#22. New England Patriots – Sergio Kindle DE/OLB
Here is where the Patriots long term strategy is going to pay off. They have three picks in the second round which gives them a lot of assets that they can use to move around in the draft. Kindle will provide Belichick’s defence with some much needed pass rush ability. I still think the Patriots are closely targeting Jared Odrick.
#23. Green Bay Packers – Maurkice Pouncey C/G
Charles Brown is a bit of a stretch here and does not fit Ted Thompson’s best player available strategy. Upgrading the offensive line is a must and adding the versatile Pouncey accomplishes that goal and satisfies the BPA strategy. Kindle or Graham are also options if they are on the board.
#24. Philadelphia Eagles – Kareem Jackson CB
Kareem Jackson has been rising as we get closer to the draft and the Eagles do have a need in the secondary. I would be very surprised if the Eagles don’t trade out of this spot given the amount of picks they have and the rumours that they want to move up and take a safety.
#25. Baltimore Ravens – Jared Odrick DT/DE
The Ravens look to add depth along the defensive front and Odrick has been rising on draft boards lately. He fits well in the 5-techniqe spot and improves the Ravens front seven immediately. I will add that I think it will be beneficial for the Ravens to take a top notch inside linebacker in either this draft or 2011. Letting a guy like Brandon Spikes learn from Ray Lewis for a few years is a great long term plan.
#26. Arizona Cardinals – Sean Weatherspoon LB
Losing Karlos Dansby to the Dolphins leaves a big gap in the Cardinals defence. Signing Joey Porter will provide them with solid production on the outside for at least two seasons, but they still need help on the interior. In my opinion Weatherspoon is a steal here and his versatility will be beneficial in Billy Davis’s scheme, especially when they play their ‘amoeba’ defence.
#27. Dallas Cowboys – Demaryius Thomas WR
The Cowboys rush to the podium to make this selection as they acquire the perfect vertical threat to pair with Miles Austin. I’m not sure Thomas will be much more than a guy who can stretch the field as I’m not convinced his route running/run after the catch skills are up to par. If Ray Sherman, the Cowboys wide receiver coach, can harness Thomas’s raw talent, the sky is the limit. People seem to think OT is the need after the Cowboys released Flozell Adams but I expect him to sign back with the Cowboys after the draft.
#28. San Diego Chargers – Terrence Cody NT
Terrence Cody has a unique skill set that 3-4 teams value. His weight at the Senior Bowl was a little concerning but since then he has dropped weight and seems to be taking his conditioning seriously. He is the ultimate space eater and San Diego needs to replace the void they created when they released Jamaal Williams. Ryan Matthews will get strong consideration here but the Chargers can find a quality back in the second round.
#29. New York Jets – Everson Griffen DE
The Jets have been the clear winners of this offseason so far. Adding Tomlinson, Holmes and Cromartie addressed a number of team needs. Upgrading the front seven and adding a replacement for Alan Faneca seem to be the two biggest needs at this point. Rex Ryan picks an athletic freak in Griffen giving him one more toy to use in his pressure based defensive scheme.
#30. Minnesota Vikings – Taylor Mays S
Even with all the questions regarding his cover skills, I think the Vikings are thrilled he is still on the board at this point. Mays has a freakish blend of size and speed and if things don’t work out for him at Safety, I still see him contributing potentially at linebacker the way Thomas Davis made the switch for the Panthers. The Vikings will also look at Patrick Robinson here and if they feel he is the better player to upgrade their secondary, he will be the pick. Jahvid Best has some value here after the Vikings lost out on the Tomlinson sweepstakes.
#31. Indianapolis Colts – Brian Price DT
The Colts need help on the offensive line but Peyton Manning is so good at sensing pressure that he rarely gets sacked anyways. The Colts offensive style allows for smaller offensive linemen to excel and therefore they can target someone in the 2nd round that may not fit other teams style. Brian Price occupies space, will immediately improve the run defence which will result in more passing downs allowing Freeney and Mathis to wreak havoc.
#32. New Orleans Saints – Carlos Dunlap DE
Like the Colts, the Saints could trade down from this position. If they hold onto the pick, I think they go with Dunlap. He is very athletic and New Orleans can afford to take a risk on a player here.
As usual, trade rumours are beginning to heat up as we approach the start of the NFL entry draft. Teams often create false rumours to generate smoke screens and effectively hide their true draft intentions from the other 31 teams. Of all the rumours, two players that appear to be on the trade block are, or should be of particular interest to the Detroit Lions. These players are Albert Haynesworth of the Washington Redskins and Jared Gaither of the Baltimore Ravens.
Haynesworth has fallen out of favour in Washington due to his lack of commitment and his reluctance to play nose tackle in the Redskins new 3-4 defence. Mike Shanahan voiced his concerns with Haynesworth and I truly believe he will lobby Bruce Allen to move him to control his locker room from the start. Because of Haynesworth insane contract, any deal will likely involve a second round pick and some sort of financial arrangement that allows the Redskins to recoup some of their lost investment (considering they recently paid him a $21 Million roster bonus).
Gaither and the Ravens have been locked in contract disputes to the point where it seems the Ravens are willing to part ways with their starting left tackle for an early second round pick. Gaither just turned 24 years old and is a franchise calibre left tackle. Need Proof? Here’s an excerpt from an article by ESPN’s KC Joyner:
Gaither has allowed only seven total sacks in 27 games and only one of these was a one-on-one sack (defined as when a defender beats a blocker in a one-on-one environment and tackles the quarterback in the pocket within three seconds of the snap). That illustrates Gaither's dominant pass blocking skills, but his run blocking numbers are also quite notable. Gaither was at the Point of Attack (POA) on 300 running plays the past two years and he won his block 255 times, or 85 percent of the time. That is a solid number on its own, but his 2009 POA win rate of 89.0 percent is even more noteworthy. To put that total into perspective, consider that in a typical NFL season, a little less than one out of ten offensive linemen will crack the 90 percent POA win mark.
Now back to the Lions. Detroit’s front office has done a great job working trades and free agency to try and fill the roster with more talent. Looking at the draft there has been lots of debate from football analysts as to whether the Lions should take Ndamukong Suh or Russell Okung with the second overall pick in the draft. Both DT and LT are positions of need for the Lions which has spurred much of this debate. The question seems to be what is more beneficial: upgrading the entire defence by selecting a force on the interior of the defensive line or protecting franchise quarterback Matt Stafford’s blindside. The trick is, by the time the #34 pick rolls around, the top offensive tackles and defensive tackles will be gone, essentially forcing the lions to choose between one need or the other. I think you see where this is going.
Jim Schwartz needs to decide which of these two player pairings he likes best: Haynesworth/Okung or Suh/Gaither. Haynesworth played his best football under Jim Schwartz, the head coach of the Lions, when he was the defensive coordinator for the Titans and Schwartz runs the 4-3 defence that Haynesworth prefers. The trick with Haynesworth will be the financial implications of this deal and how much the Lions are willing to compensate the Redskins. Acquiring Haynesworth for the #34 pick would allow the Lions to pick Okung at #2 and give them a stud LT to grow alongside Stafford. As I mentioned earlier, Gaither is a franchise calibre left tackle who would immediately upgrade the Lions offensive line by allowing current LT Jeff Backus to move to right tackle. Acquiring Gaither would allow the Lions to pick Suh who is widely regarded as the best prospect in the draft.
Trading for either Gaither or Haynesworth allows the Lions to address both the DT and LT position with high quality players. By keeping the #34 pick, this will not be the case. The decision between Gaither or Haynesworth, Suh or Okung, will likely come down to how Schwartz feels about Haynesworth and the financial implications of both moves. I would lean toward Gaither because he is a proven LT and I think it is prudent to pick a for sure talent to protect Stafford as opposed to risking Okung being a bust (although I don’t believe that will be the case). Either way, the Lions need to recognize that there exists an opportunity here to significantly upgrade their football team and must pull the trigger on one of these deals....soon.
