What's Next for Tebow?

Now that Tim Tebow (aka the Robot) has been demoted to third string in Denver, we are all left wondering what’s next for the former Heisman trophy winner. The new rule that allows 3rd string quarterbacks to be active makes a difference. To clarify, historically if the 3rd string QB entered the game, the 1st or 2nd stringer could not re-enter the game. This has now been changed so that the 3rd stringer is treated as any other bench player, free to enter the game at any time. This means that Denver can keep Tebow as the #3, have him enter the game in special packages (likely in the redzone) and give him anywhere from 3-5 snaps a game. Not really what you’d classify as value for a first round pick, but John Fox didn’t pick him so it’s not that important. That is likely what will happen if things remain status quo.


Another option is that the Broncos ask the Robot to convert to H-back. I would be interested to see the Robot react to such a request given he has played pretty well in game scenarios. Would the guy who seemingly has never done anything wrong demand a trade? If the Broncos intended to go this route, I imagine the conversation would be held in private and if Tebow wasn’t open to the idea, they would release him or pursue a trade. How effective Tebow would be as an H-back is a mystery. Quarterbacks typically transition well because they have a better fundamental understanding of concepts and play design, but you never really know how his hands are or the extent of his blocking ability. The Broncos could use Tebow in wildcat formations still so this seems to be where they would get the most value if they don’t see him developing into a starting QB (which is clearly their stance right now), but I don’t know if Tebow would be open to it. We’ll see…

The other option is to trade Tebow. The Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, Niners and Seahawks all seem like possible destinations since their quarterback situations are unsettled to say the least. The Niners would likely be the best fit because he could be paired with Jim Harbaugh. An ‘out-of-the-box’ team could be the Colts. Letting him sit behind Manning could be very beneficial and he could be groomed as the heir apparent, but I think that’s unlikely. Tebow is intriguing because he could likely be had for a mid-round pick, not a lot of risk with the potential for a big reward. I think this is the most likely scenario and could happen within the next few weeks.

Another option is that the Broncos release him and he decides to follow in the footsteps of another Heisman trophy winner and head to Canada. Doug Flutie absolutely tore up the CFL for years and finally the Bills gave him a shot at returning to the NFL. Flutie was undersized and therefore no one wanted him but he was as fierce a competitor as they come. Sound familiar? It is unlikely that Tebow would slip passed every NFL team like Flutie did so I think this scenario is less than likely in the short term, but it’s intriguing nonetheless.

Tebow is a gamer, there is no doubt about it. There were multiple reports that he looked lost in training camp, but that never showed when he was in game action. Some players are simply not good practice players. If you’ve played before you know that inevitably there are guys that take it to another level in games and leave much to be desired in practice. Tebow strikes me as one of those guys. He has an unmatched hunger to win and sometimes that can be strong enough to overcome any physical limitations a player may have. However it turns out for the Robot I really hope he gets an opportunity to play quarterback so that we can all see what he’s got. He deserves the chance and, if he ever gets it, I have a feeling he won't give it up so easily.

The Indianapolis (Crickets)

There’s a famous song that goes “don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you got till it’s gone.” If you asked the Miami Dolphins whether or not they would go back and spend more money surrounding Dan Marino with an abundance of talent, what do you think they would say? Well I can tell you they probably wouldn’t answer because they are too busy working on a drug to reverse the aging process so they can get Marino back.


If you look back over the history of the NFL, the difference between teams that fall short of a championship and the ones that win multiple times boils down to a few critical moves by the GM and owner. Marino was a phenomenal quarterback but never really had the team around him to win a championship. A team that is excellent at recognizing these types of opportunities is the Green Bay Packers. When Brett Favre was entering his prime, the Packers went out and signed Reggie White to push the defense over the top. More recently, they realized that a young team needed a bit of a boost, so they went out and signed Charles Woodson, which took a little longer to payoff but nevertheless did last year.  The Cowboys adding Deion Sanders is another example of a move that secured a dynasty.  Sometimes no matter how hard a team tries, the stars just don’t align (Bills of the early 90’s) but there should be a special place in football hell for the GM’s that squander once in a generation talents to return a higher profit.

Enter the Indianapolis Colts. The news out of Indy today was that they signed Kerry Collins just incase Peyton Manning isn’t ready to go for week 1. I have the Colts making the playoffs on the assumption that Manning plays, but how many games do you see the Colts winning with Collins at the helm? 5? 6? All of a sudden Colts fans everywhere are realizing just how average their entire team is. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton could probably join the Carolina Panthers and take them to the playoffs, so the drop off should be expected. However, there’s a big difference between getting to the playoffs and winning Super Bowls. Just ask Dan Marino.

Trivia Question, what major asset have the Colts acquired through free agency since winning the Super Bowl? (Crickets). The answer is no one. Imagine for a second that instead of the Eagles, it was the Colts who made all of the big acquisitions this year. At the very least you’d think a good free agent receiver could be lured to Indy given the fact they’d be playing with Manning.  (Crickets).

Sure, a counterpoint could be made by saying that the Steelers rarely sign free agents and build through the draft, like the Colts do. However, they have a different formula for success and also don’t have anyone on their roster like Manning. Instead, the Steelers build a complete team that doesn’t rely on one guy whereas the Colts could legitimately change their name to the Indianapolis Mannings.

Peyton has about 3 years left to be in contention for a Super Bowl. The reason I say that is because he will need to be carry the team to the big game and even though I expect him to be a top 5 QB in 3 years, he won’t have that ability anymore.

Unfortunately, I don’t think the Colts are going to get the message. Peyton had the most clout this offseason because he was a free agent and the best the Colts could do were Tommie Harris and Ernie Sims. It could be worse Colts fans. At least you got to experience the joy of winning a Super Bowl with Peyton. Unfortunately those memories will have to last a lifetime.

2011 NFL Mock GM Draft

The 2011 NFL Draft is here and it should be one of the most exciting in recent memory.  Unless free-agency opens in the next 48 hours from the lockout being lifted, no team has been able to trade for or sign players yet.  Teams can't risk getting certain players in free agency or via trade will be a certainty so I suspect there will be a record number of trades in the first round as teams jockey for position.  For this mock draft I played GM for each team and chose who I would take in their position (without projecting any trades).  Don't expect Thursday night to play out like this, but for football fans it will definitely be exciting.  ( I will be tweeting throughout the draft @NFLRedzoneblog )

#1 Carolina Panthers – Marcell Dareus DT (Alabama)

Whether the rumours about Cam Newton being the pick here are true is irrelevant.  They have one pick in the first two rounds and cannot afford to miss here.  Ron Rivera has waited a long time for his first head coaching gig and would essentially be risking his job on Newton.  Dareus is a safe pick who will make an immediate impact.

#2 Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson CB (LSU)

I would upgrade the defense with this pick and pairing Peterson with Champ Bailey would create a very dangerous secondary.  He is the consensus best player in the draft and will improve John Fox’s defense from day one.  

#3 Buffalo Bills – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)

Usually the hybrid player is difficult to evaluate because they didn’t play the position in college.  Miller actually did play the OLB position in the 3-4 and produced consistently in his last 2 seasons at A&M.  The Bills need a pass rusher desperately and can find a developmental QB in the second round.  I was a Miller skeptic but he has really impressed at the combine and in the lead up to the draft.

#4 Cincinnati Bengals – Ryan Mallett QB (Arkansas)

Mallett has the best arm in the draft, the height to see over the offensive line and  more experience playing from under centre.  Having never met the guy I don’t know what to take from his ‘character concerns’, but from everything I’ve read they seem to be wildly overblown.  Don’t be surprised if he is the best QB to come out of this draft class.

#5 Arizona Cardinals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)

The Cardinals will take a long, hard look at both Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert but ultimately should take Green.  Pairing him with Fitzgerald would allow Steve Breaston to move back into the slot.  The Cards would go back to having the best receiving corps in the country and can find their QB in the second round or via trade.

#6 Cleveland Browns – Robert Quinn DE (North Carolina)

The Browns are moving to a 4-3 defense and will need players to fill out their front 7.  The only other players I would consider here are Julio Jones and Nick Fairley.  I like Jones but I think it’s easier to grab a receiver in the second round than an impact DE.  Fairley would also be a nice fit here but I see Quinn as the more impactful of the two.  

#7 San Francisco 49ers – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)

To me this is a no-brainer.  The 49ers have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  All they are missing is a top tier quarterback.  I feel for Alex Smith because I honestly believe had he been able to sit for a few years instead of being thrown into the fire he would’ve been a better quarterback, but the reality is it’s time to move on.  Harbaugh is good with quarterbacks and Gabbert has the physical and mental skillset to flourish under his tutelage.  

#8 Tennessee Titans – Cam Newton QB (Auburn)

This makes sense on a few different levels.  The Titans have a major void at quarterback and the offensive unit is used to playing with a mobile quarterback in Vince Young.  Newton and Chris Johnson would be a very dangerous threat out of the backfield and unless the Titans are prepared to trade back up into the first round to grab a quarterback later, they need to make this pick.  At #8, the finances are a lot easier to handle than in the top 5.  

#9 Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith OT (USC)

I would not be surprised if the Cowboys ended up trading this pick, but this mock has no trades.  The ‘Boys need help on the offensive line if they want to keep Tony Romo healthy this year.  Smith is very athletic and powerful.  He is the top tackle in this year’s class and getting him at #9 is good value.  Prince Amukamara almost was the pick but OT is a bigger need. 

#10 Washington Redskins – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)

With no quarterback worthy of this pick, the ‘Skins fill their void at WR.  Jones tore up the combine and has really impressed leading up to the draft.  He has had some issues with dropped balls but he is definitely worthy of a top ten pick.  Shanahan will be looking to add a QB in the draft and getting Jones will help that player’s development, whoever it may be.

#11 Houston Texans – Aldon Smith DE/OLB (Missouri)

I had a really tough time deciding between Smith and Amukamara here.  I honestly think they will both turn out to be great players but the Texans have young talented players in the secondary that need time to develop.  Getting Smith will increase the pressure put on opposing QB’s which will help the pass defense immensely.  A front seven that includes Mario Williams, Brian Cushing, Demeco Ryans, Antonio Smith and Aldon Smith will be a force for years to come.

#12 Minnesota Vikings – Prince Amukamara CB (Nebraska)
The Lions will be fuming when the Vikings snatch Prince right before their eyes.  The Vikings need a lot of help in the secondary and Prince could be the #1 corner they covet.  Nick Fairley would be nice here, but they Vikes already have a 3 tech in Kevin Williams.

#13 Detroit Lions – Nick Fairley DT (Auburn)

Last year I said the Lions needed to pick a tackle and if they take Castonzo here it's a great move.  It's just that the prospect of having Nick Fairley paired with Ndamukong Suh is too good to pass up.  You can bet Fairley is upset about his draft stock falling and with last years defensive rookie of the year lining up right next to him he will have a great role model to learn from.  Suh is already one of the top 3 DT's in the league and if Fairley pans out, the Lions could have something special.

#14 St. Louis Rams – Da'Quan Bowers DE (Clemson)

Steve Spagnuolo won a Super Bowl with a pair of great defensive ends.  With the foundation in place on offence I would take a chance on a guy who was talked about as a potential #1 overall no less than 6 weeks ago.  Chris Long showed great improvement last season and would benefit from having Bowers on the other side.  

#15 Miami Dolphins – Cameron Jordan DE (California)

The Dolphins are in a tough spot at #15.  They need a quarterback and running back badly.  No quarterback left is worth the selection and it’s a little high for Mark Ingram.  I know the Dolphins took Jared Odrick last year and he should develop into a solid starter, but pairing him with Jordan is too good to pass up.  Improving their D-line will aid the development of Koa Misi and allow Cameron Wake to continue wreaking havoc.

#16 Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan DE (Purdue)

The Jags have been plagued by first round busts in the last handful of years.  They have a need at QB, WR, DE, CB and S.  The best player to match those needs at #16 is Kerrigan.  He is a great pass rusher and would complete the re-tool of the defensive line.

#17 New England Patriots – JJ Watt DE (Wisconsin)

The Patriots could go with Watt or Kerrigan here, but they are weaker at DE.  Jermaine Cunningham is still a project at OLB and they can address the need with a pick later in the draft.  The Patriots have missed Richard Seymour since they traded him to the Raiders, so it’s fitting that they will use the pick they got in that trade to address the need.  Watt doesn’t have the pass rushing ability of Seymour but he is stout against the run and will be an anchor on the Pats D-line for years to come.

#18 San Diego Chargers – Marvin Austin DT (North Carolina)

The Chargers have a lot of needs on the defensive front and at WR.  No receiver is worth the 18th overall pick but Austin can play every position on the Chargers defensive line.  He fits much better in a 4-3 defence but he can start at DE and then move inside on 3rd down.  Austin is one of the most impressive physical specimens in this class.  The Chargers will have to keep him motivated and make sure they have a plan in place to keep him out of trouble off the field.

#19 New York Giants – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)

Solder is a bit of project so going to a team that can develop him will be helpful.  The Giants are the perfect fit in that sense and need to inject some youth into their offensive line.  Solder could turn out to be the best tackle in this draft and is good value at #19.

#20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)

Going into this offseason the Bucs had every reason to feel great about where they were heading.  Now, thanks in large part to Aqib Talib’s arrest, there is cause for concern.  During the season I wrote about Talib and how he had developed into one of the NFL’s top corners.  It has been reported that the Bucs will release him once the lockout is over.  The Bucs would’ve liked to add a pass rusher but corner is more important and Jimmy Smith is a talented player with good value at #20.

#21 Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor NT (Baylor)

The Chiefs could go a few different ways with this pick.  Akeem Ayers and Mike Pouncey would both fill areas of weakness for Kansas City, but in a 3-4 defense there isn’t a more important position than NT.  Phil Taylor is the best in the draft and after him there is a big drop off in talent.  There are quality guards and OLB hybrids to be found in the 2^nd round.

#22 Indianapolis Colts – Mike Pouncey G/C (Florida)

Pouncey’s stock rises based on how successful his brother was in his first season with the Steelers.  Mike is not as good as his brother but he is close.  The Colts need help everywhere on the offensive line and although they would prefer a tackle, Pouncey will help the run game which will help Peyton restore some balance to the offensive attack.

#23 Philadelphia Eagles – Ras-I Dowling CB (Virginia)

Dowling was a consensus top 15 pick before he got injured in the 2010 NCAA season.  The Eagles found out the hard way what it’s like to play the Packers without depth at defensive back.  They need a guy to play across from Asante Samuel and Dowling can be that player.

#24 New Orleans Saints – Corey Liuget DT (Illinois)

Liuget is widely regarded as a top 20 selection and when he slides to the Saints, they will grab him.  He tested extremely well at the combine and has good tape to back it up.  The Saints don’t have a ton of holes so they take the BPA.

#25 Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker QB (Washington)

The Seahawks biggest need is at QB and Locker is worth taking a chance on this late in the first round.  His accuracy has been called into question but he is a fierce competitor and if the Seahawks give him the chance to develop, he could become the franchise QB Seattle desperately needs.  He is also used to playing in the NorthWest weather which is something to consider.

#26 Baltimore Ravens – Bruce Carter LB (North Carolina)

Last year I thought the Ravens should take a linebacker to learn from Ray Lewis.  I think Bruce Carter can be that guy.  His knee injury dropped his stock but players bounce back a lot better from ACL tears than they used to.  Carter is versatile and could be an immediate impact player.

#27 Atlanta Falcons – Cameron Heyward DE (Ohio State)

The Falcons need someone to play opposite John Abraham.  Heyward is probably better suited as a 3-4 end but he can play end on first down and then they can move him inside on passing downs.  He doesn’t have elite pass rushing skills from the end position but he is a powerful player with a great motor.  

#28 New England Patriots – Anthony Castonzo OT (Boston College)

The Patriots are thrilled that Castonzo has slid to them at #28.  He played his college ball nearby and is probably worth a top 20 pick.  Once you get passed #20 though only Indy and Philly have significant need at OT and both of them can get better players.  Even if Matt Light is back, he is aging.  Castonzo can be brought along to replace him in a year or two.  

#29 Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)

The Bears need all kinds of help on the offensive line and Carimi can step in and play right tackle from day 1.  Carimi grades out as a late first or early second round pick so there is good value here for the Bears, especially considering it is their biggest weakness.

#30 New York Jets – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)

Ayers lackluster performance at the NFL combine almost dropped him out of first round consideration.  He came back and ran better times at his pro day but there are still questions about his ability to take on blocks at the point of attack.  The Jets need a player to get after the quarterback and Ayers is worth taking a chance on here.

#31 Pittsburgh Steelers – Danny Watkins OG (Baylor)

A true road grader, Watkins is the prototypical linemen for the Steelers.  He is 26 years old but he is ready to contribute.  Pairing him with last year’s first round pick Maurkice Pouncey could create a lethal tandem that will pave the way for Rashard Mendenhall.

#32 Green Bay Packers – Derrick Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)

The worst thing that can happen to a Super Bowl Championship team is that they fall in love with themselves.  Can Chad Clifton really have a repeat of last season?  The Packers still have some issues along the offensive line and keeping Rodgers healthy is priority #1.

2nd Round

#33 New England Patriots - Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)

#34 Buffalo Bills - Andy Dalton QB (TCU)

#35 Cincinnati Bengals - Rahim Moore S (UCLA)

#36 Denver Broncos - Ryan Williams RB (Virginia Tech)

#37 Cleveland Browns - Aaron Williams CB (Texas)

#38 Arizona Cardinals - Christian Ponder QB (FSU)

#39 Tennessee Titans - Adrian Clayborn DE (Iowa)

#40 Dallas Cowboys - Muhammad Wilkerson DE/DT (Temple)

#41 Washington Redskins - Mikel LeShoure RB (Illinois)

#42 Houston Texans - Stephen Paea DT (Oregon St.)

#43 Minnesota Vikings - Stefen Wisniewski OG (PSU)

#44 Detroit Lions - Ben Ijalana OT (Villanova)

#45 San Francisco - Justin Houston OLB (Georgia)

#46 Denver Broncos - Martez Wilson ILB (Illinois)

#47 St. Louis Rams - Leonard Hankerson WR (Miami)

#48 Oakland Raiders - Rodney Hudson G/C (FSU)

#49 Jacksonville Jaguars - Brandon Harris CB (Miami)

#50 San Diego Chargers - Torrey Smith WR (Maryland)

#51 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Allen Bailey DE (Miami)

#52 New York Giants - Greg Jones LB (Michigan St.)

#53 Indianapolis Colts - Marcus Cannon OG (TCU)

#54 Philadelphia Eagles - Will Rackley OT (Lehigh)

#55 Kansas City Chiefs - Jon Baldwin WR (Pittsburgh)

#56 New Orleans Saints - Randall Cobb WR (Kentucky)

#57 Seattle Seahawks - Greg Little WR (North Carolina)

#58 Baltimore Ravens - Chris Carter OLB (Fresno St.)

#59 Atlanta Falcons - Jerrel Jernigan WR (Troy)

#60 New England Patriots - Brooks Reed OLB (Arizona)

#61 Chicago Bears - Christian Ballard DE (Iowa)

#62 San Diego Chargers - Titus Young WR (Boise St.)

#63 Pittsburgh Steelers - Curtis Brown CB (Texas)

#64 Green Bay Packers - Sam Acho OLB (Texas)

Palmer vs Brown: The Bungles Fiasco

Mike Brown, president of the Cincinnati Bengals, has created his own version of the Cuban Missile Crisis with his hardline stance regarding Carson Palmer’s future with his team.  Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few months you know that Palmer requested a trade from the Bengals indicating that a change of scenery would be best for both him and the Bengals.  Mike Brown responded by saying he would not trade the former first overall pick.  Carson cemented his stance by issuing a statement saying he would retire if the Bengals didn’t trade him.  Mike Brown then stated he wished Palmer ‘all the best’ in his retirement.  Both parties are involved in a standoff and neither seems to be willing to blink.  

Up until 2005, Palmer’s career was on a great trajectory.  He had led the Bengals to the playoffs and was emerging as one of the top five signal callers in the league.  The only explanation I have for what happened next is that he must have really pissed off the football gods.  

Starting with the 2005 playoffs, Palmer has had the good fortune of:

     - Getting his knee completely blown out and undergoing extensive surgery 

     - Suffering an injury to his throwing elbow that made him miss the majority of the 08 season

     - Being forced to play Commissioner Gordon to Batman (T.O.) and Robin (OchoCinco)

     - Having to deal with the constant boos and jeers from the Bengals ‘faithful’ without anyone in the    organization coming to his defense

Unlike most players who request a trade, Palmer has given everything he’s had to the Bengals organization for the last 7 years.  He never complained and always approached his job with a workman-like attitude.

The reality is the Bengals could receive at least a 2^nd round pick for Palmer.  Cincinnati can use all the help it can get as their roster is falling apart.  If you look at this from a pure business perspective, Mike Brown has an asset in Palmer.  The return on investment can be draft picks, or nothing if he maintains his stance of not trading him.  Brown believes it will benefit him in the long run by sending a signal to other future players that he will not yield to trade requests.  That’s great and all, but it’s also going to ensure that free agents have less incentive to sign in Cinci (if that’s even possible).

I also think Brown is drastically underestimating the power Carson has.    The reality is the Bengals need to take Carson’s retirement threat seriously and as such, will have to pick a quarterback early in this year’s draft.  If they choose one at #4 overall, the contract will be fairly steep.  If that’s the case, Palmer could show up to camp, get paid his $12 million for the year, and really put the Bengals in a salary cap bind.  There’s no rule that says Palmer has to be a model citizen to collect his money.  He could act disinterested and only work the bare minimum.  If nothing else, that would create a pretty tough environment for a rookie quarterback to learn and develop.  

The reality is, Palmer is too much of a class act to go through with the aforementioned threats. He will stick to his word and retire well before his time.  It’s a shame the Mike Brown and the Bengals don’t have the same amount of class.

The Patrick Peterson Debate

Just over a year ago the most dominant player in the NFL playoffs wasn’t Drew Brees or Peyton Manning.  It was Darrell Revis.  He completely shut down the likes of Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson and anyone else he lined up against.  He continued offering Revis Island vacations to opposing receivers this year and almost helped the Jets reach the Super Bowl.  

Who is the hottest free agent this season?  That’s easy, he’s the only guy that all 32 teams would love to have and his last name sounds like awesome.  Nnamdi Asomugha will be paid a pretty penny this summer by a team in need of a true shutdown corner.  It would seem that the corner position is pretty valuable in the scheme of things.

Why then is Patrick Peterson, the consensus ‘best player in the draft’, sliding down mock drafts?  Analysts constantly point out that “no corner has ever been taken in the top 3” or argue that “you can’t pay top 3 money to a corner”.  Really?  But you can pay top 3 money to JaMarcus Russell?  Don’t get me wrong I understand the finances of the pick and that the cornerback position on average does not receive the same money as say a quarterback or defensive linemen, but we’re not talking about an average player here.  I would feel a lot more comfortable paying a large sum of money to Peterson than I would Cam Newton, or Blaine Gabbert.  

In Jon Gruden’s book “Do You Love Football”, he says that when building a team you first need to get a franchise quarterback, then a shutdown corner, and then either a defensive end or offensive tackle.  If you’re Carolina, you need to decide whether or not Jimmy Clausen can still be the guy (I believe he can be).  If they don’t think Clausen has it in him, I can see them going with Gabbert or Newton.  The Broncos at #2 overall have a fair amount of money tied up in Champ Bailey and need help along the defensive line.  Although I would pick Peterson, I can’t fault them for taking Marcel Dareus to fill the void at defensive tackle.  Here’s where it gets interesting.  The Bills, Bengals and Cardinals all need franchise quarterbacks but there aren’t enough to go around.  Sure you’re going to hear the arguments about how guys like Da’Quan Bowers, Von Miller and Robert Quinn can all get after the quarterback and that is more important.  But now it’s time to go back to the Jets and Revis.  Tom Brady enjoyed one of the most prolific stretches a quarterback has ever had until he met the Jets in the playoffs. He never looked comfortable in the pocket, was hit a lot and ultimately lost the game.  The Jets didn’t have one guy in their front seven that I would classify as a “dangerous” pass rusher (proof of this is that getting a pass rusher is need #1 for the Jets this offseason).  So how come Brady struggled?  It’s because the coverage downfield was exceptional.  He had a lot of time in the pocket, but simply had nowhere to throw the ball.  

Where Peterson goes on draft day is still a mystery (although someone needs to get fired if he gets by San Fran at #7).  Somehow the best player in the draft, at a key position, is not worth a top 5 pick.  Go figure.

2011 NFL Draft Quarterback Value Rankings

When analyzing the quarterback class of 2011 two things stand out.  The athleticism and depth of this group is outstanding.  There are six quarterbacks that are 1^st or 2^nd round prospects.  Four of them ran between 4.6 and 4.65 in the 40 yard dash and average 6’3 230 pounds.  The trick is none of them are sure fire picks to succeed at the next level.  The second tier quarterbacks such as Mallett (character), Locker (Accuracy) and Ponder (Injury) all have individual issues but still have the talent to be first round picks.  The reason they are not slated to go in the top 20 is because the two guys ahead of them are the most physically gifted quarterbacks to come out of college in years.  Newton and Gabbert are raw but if they get with a coach who can develop them there is no ceiling to their ability.  Despite the tremendous athleticism, I don’t see the overall importance.  Of the top quarterbacks in the league (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger and Vick) only Vick and Rodgers run faster than a 4.9 and Brady and Manning are probably the least athletic quarterbacks in the league.  The big key is that defensive players are way more athletic in the NFL and, unless you are Mike Vick, your threat in the run game is mitigated to a great extent. Below is a ranking of the top quarterbacks based on their value relative to where they will go in the draft. 

1. Ryan Mallett 

Ryan Mallet has easily the best arm in the draft.  He has better accuracy and arm strength than both Newton and Gabbert.  As a bonus, Mallett doesn’t have their footwork issues and is a classic dropback passer.  The questions with Mallett are issues about his character.  I think Mallett is driven enough to succeed and I am buying-in.  Whatever team decides to grab him late in the first round will be glad they did too.

2. Christian Ponder

Ponder is another guy who’s stock has been rising lately and with good reason.  He could slide to the middle of the 2^nd round despite having the ability of a late first round pick.  Ponder has a good arm and won the 2010 James Tatum Award that goes to the nation’s top scholar-athlete.  His intelligence shows on the field with his ability to read defenses.  Look for teams like the Titans, Dolphins or Jaguars to grab him with their 2^nd round pick at great value.

3. Andy Dalton

Dalton has an underrated arm and won TCU their first ever Rose Bowl this season.  There will likely be 5 quarterbacks that go ahead of Dalton which will drop him to the 3^rd maybe even the 4^th round.  I think Dalton has a realistic chance to be a Kevin Kolb type quarterback, and if not, there is still value in having a talent like him as a backup in the middle of the draft.  

4. Jake Locker 

Locker is a tricky prospect to evaluate.  He is a tremendous athlete, a natural leader and has a strong arm.  Sounds great until you realize that he never completed more than 60% of his passes in college.  Last season he would’ve been a top 10 pick and there was a trend that his accuracy was improving, however this season he regressed in that department (58.4% to 55% completion percentage) and that has teams worried.  It could be a mechanics issue but, if nothing else, accuracy wins at the next level.  I probably like Locker the most of all the QB’s in this draft, but I’m not sure accuracy can be taught.  

5. Cam Newton

Newton has the most upside of any passer in this draft.  He played one year of division 1 football and won the Heisman trophy and a national championship.  He has a chance to be a superstar in the NFL if he gets paired with the right coaching staff who takes the time to develop his natural ability.  On draft day, Newton will likely go in the top 5.  QBs that went in the top five in the last five drafts are: Sam Bradford (#1), Matt Stafford (#1), Mark Sanchez (#5), Matt Ryan (#3), Jamarcus Russell (#1) and Vince Young (#3).  Aside from Russell, all the other players have had success in the league; however I think if you asked Tennessee now, they would say VY wasn’t worth the 3^rd overall pick.  The questions surrounding Newton are numerous and therefore I think where he goes in the draft will be too high risk to warrant good value.  If he slides out of the top 10 (unlikely) the pick makes more sense.

6. Blaine Gabbert

Reference the list above of quarterbacks who went in the top five and ask yourself if Gabbert grades out as highly as those guys.  The answer is no.  Like Newton he is also a tremendous athlete whose game needs refining to succeed at the NFL level.  Gabbert will go in the top 5 and again I worry that the value isn’t there to take him so high.  Gabbert is a hard worker but top 5 is too high for him, especially considering the depth of the 2011 QB class.

If you follow the NFL you have no doubt heard the statement that you need a franchise quarterback to win a Super Bowl and analysts use that logic to explain why guys like Newton and Gabbert could/should be taken in the top five.  Only half of that argument is correct.  Yes, you do need a franchise quarterback to threaten for a world championship, but you don’t need to get that guy in the top 5 all the time.  The following quarterbacks are solidified as quality starters going into the 2011 season and roughly half of them were drafted outside of the top 15.

Peyton Manning	(1)	Josh Freeman	(17)
Sam Bradford	(1)	Joe Flacco	(18)
Matt Stafford	(1)	Aaron Rodgers	(24)
Eli Manning	(1)	Drew Brees	(32)
Mike Vick	(1)	Matt Schaub	(90)
Matt Ryan	(3)	Tom Brady	(199)
Phil Rivers	(4)	Matt Cassel	(230)
Mark Sanchez	(5)	Tony Romo	(N/A)
Jay Cutler	(11)
Ben Roethlisberger	(11)

Considering the questions with Newton and Gabbert, as well as the depth of this class, teams in the top 10 would be wise to pick one of the many talented positional players and then target a franchise quarterback by trading up into the late 1^st or early 2^nd round.  That’s where the value is.

2011 NFL Mock Draft (What I Would Do)

The NFL Scouting Combine is all in the rearview mirror and the draft board is starting to take shape.  In the coming weeks, I will release two different types of mock drafts.  This one represents what I would do if I was the GM in charge of each team.  The point here is not to predict what teams will do, but what I think they should do.  This will be the one to re-visit a year from now to see how teams' fortunes may have been different had they followed my madness.  Let's get at it...

1. Carolina Panthers – Marcell Dareus DT (Alabama)

The success of Ron Rivera’s tenure in Carolina could hinge on who he takes with the #1 overall pick in April.  They do not have a pick in the 2^nd round and for a team that needs to overhaul the defensive personnel to fit the new 3-4 scheme, they need to hit on this pick.  Dareus overtook Nick Fairley as the best defensive tackle in the draft after he blew up the combine.  He is incredibly athletic and explosive and at 319 pounds, he will play be a lot to handle at the end position and can even kick inside to play nosetackle on passing downs.  Fairley doesn’t convert as well to the 3-4 and is suited to play the 3-technique in a 4-3.  If the Panthers think Cam Newton can become a franchise quarterback they should take him, but if I’m Ron Rivera, I’m not willing to risk my first head coaching job on Cam Newton.

2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson CB (LSU)

Patrick Peterson is probably the safest pick in the top 10.  He is a physical freak at 6 feet and 219 pounds and ran a 4.34 in the 40. He was also the SEC special teams player of the year as a returner.  With Champ Bailey likely moving to safety (if not this year, next), they will have a need at corner and having Bailey as a mentor will only aid the development of Peterson.  It was close between Peterson, Fairley and Robert Quinn but ultimately the draft is deep enough at defensive line that John Fox can upgrade it in the 2^nd round. 

3. Buffalo Bills – Cam Newton QB Auburn

The Buffalo Bills should targeting a run at the playoffs 3 to 4 years from now.  There is not enough talent on the team to consider them a contender in a division that includes the Jets and the Patriots in the short term.  Start Ryan Fitzpatrick for at least 13 games and let Newton learn under a Harvard guy.  He fits well into Chan Gailey’s offense and if he can learn to read a defense will be a star.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – Robert Quinn DE (North Carolina)

Quinn didn’t burn up the 40 like I expected but he is explosive at 265 pounds and is only 20 years old.  He could develop into a Dwight Freeney type pass rusher who plays angry.  The Bengals are going to need a Quarterback as Carson will be traded, but that trade will likely yield them an additional second round pick, that they could use to target a QB that slides out of the 1^st round.    I debated AJ Green (WR is also a position of great need) but Quinn is too good to pass up. 

5. Arizona Cardinals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)

The Cardinals seem to have convinced Larry Fitzgerald to stay, but only if they make an effort to put top talent around him.  That doesn’t mean only at the quarterback position.  Yes, the Cardinals QB’s were awful this season and that was a big reason for Fitz’s fall in production, but it is also due to the departure of Anquan Boldin.  Bring in Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb with the 2^nd round pick (and maybe a bit more), add Green and this offence could jump right back to prominence. 

6. Cleveland Browns – Da’Quan Bowers DE (Clemson)

If AJ Green goes to the Cardinals, expect the Browns to be making calls asking what it would take to get him.  If the asking price is too much, Bowers is a nice consolation prize.  I still want to see what type of numbers he puts up at his pro day but with he was dominant this season leading the nation with 15.5 sacks.  The Browns are making the switch to the 4-3 and adding an elite edge rusher like Bowers will help the transition.   

7. San Francisco 49ers – Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

The 49ers need help in the secondary and Nate Clements is getting old.  Prince did nothing to hurt himself at the NFL combine and has all the talent of a top 10 pick.  The 49ers need a quarterback but I don’t know if Harbaugh sees a guy he likes this early in the draft.  Blaine Gabbert’s pro-day could change my mind.

8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley DT (Auburn)

Fairley is another guy with top 10 talent who will upgrade the Titans defense immediately.   He was a force this season with a mean streak.  Next to Austin’s, Fairley’s 10-yard split of 1.76 seems slow.  It is still a good time (Ndamukong Suh ran 1.73).  He is the best player available and fills, maybe not the top need (QB), but a need nonetheless. 

9. Dallas Cowboys – Marvin Austin DT (North Carolina)

I would be tempted to take the top offensive tackle here, but Marvin Austin is a special talent that will help the Cowboys immensely in the front seven.  At 308 pounds, he ran the 10-yard in 1.63 seconds (which was the average for runningbacks last year at the combine).  He also finished second among defensive tackles with 38 reps on the bench.  He is versatile in a 3-4 and would improve the Cowboys defense overall. 

10. Washington Redskins – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)

No one would describe Jay Cutler as the most accurate quarterback, but he has a cannon arm and good athleticism.  I question Gabbert’s accuracy but Mike Shanahan didn’t’ have a problem with that in Cutler.  The Redskins need a QB for the future and Gabbert has decent value at #10. 

11. Houston Texans – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)

The Texans are switching to a 3-4 defense and will jump at the opportunity to add a Miller, who has the potential to grow into a Demarcus Ware-type threat of the edge.  Houston had the worst pass defense last season but they are young in the secondary and adding an elite pass-rusher will improve the pass defense just as much, if not more than adding a guy like Jimmy Smith.  Mario Williams, Brian Cushing, Demeco Ryans, Von Miller and Antonio Smith?  Sounds pretty good to me. 

12. Minnesota Vikings – Tyron Smith OT (USC)

Bryant McKinnie is regressing and would benefit from a move to the right side.  A big reason why Favre did not match his 2009 numbers last year was the lack of protection he received.  The Vikings have other needs at quarterback and in the secondary, but no prospect at either position group matches Smith’s value here.

13. Detroit Lions – Anthony Castonzo OT (Boston College)

Castonzo is used to playing the left side and showed great lateral movement at the combine.  If you recall I said last year that it was critical for the Lions to upgrade the offensive tackle position via free-agency or in the first 2 rounds of the draft.  They didn’t and although Ndamukong Suh and Jahvid Best look like good picks, Matthew Stafford has now suffered multiple injuries to his throwing arm and is likely one injury away from never being the same prospect again.  I’m tempted to go with Nate Solder, who has a higher ceiling than Castonzo, but I’ll take the safer pick out of necessity.

14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)

Jones lit up the combine and did so on a fractured foot.  He has the height and speed of a top 10 pick and is as physical a receiver I have seen in the last five years.  Despite his great combine, he didn’t jump Green because his route running and hands are not on the same level.  The Rams will waste no time making this pick and Sam Bradford gets his go-to receiver.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)

The teammates from the Crimson Tide go back-to-back and the Dolphins find a perfect replacement for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.  I also really considered quarterback (Locker/Mallet) here because I don’t think Henne is the answer, but ultimately getting the top RB in the class is better value for the Fins here.  

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)

The Jaguars secondary is in drastic need of an overhaul.  They don’t have a single playmaker in the group and that is a recipe for failure when you play Peyton Manning twice a year.  The Jags can’t pick another defensive lineman in the first round and I’m happy enough with David Garrard to wait on grabbing a quarterback till round 2.

17. New England Patriots – Ryan Kerrigan DE/OLB (Purdue)

The Patriots need to manufacture pressure on opposing quarterbacks and upgrading the DE and OLB positions is a must.  Kerrigan is a really impressive athlete (4.70 in the 40 at 6’4 and 270 pounds) who looked really smooth dropping into coverage during drills at the combine.  He is not only a need for the Patriots but is also the best player available.  

18. San Diego Chargers – Cameron Jordan DE (California)

Jordan is the prototypical end in the Chargers 3-4 scheme.  He is just as good against the run as he is against the pass and is athletic for a guy his size.  Just like the Kerrigan pick, he fills the top need and is the best player available.

19. New York Giants – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)

Unlike the Lions, the Giants can afford to gamble a bit on Solder.  He has a much higher ceiling than Castonzo and will join a veteran offensive line in New York.  Outside linebacker is still a position the Giants need to address but there is enough depth to grab a starter in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.  Solder is good value at #19.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aldon Smith DE (Missouri)

A raw athlete, Smith will be added to a defensive line that includes Gerald McCoy (3^rd overall in 2010) and Brian Price (35^th overall in 2010).  The Bucs have no pressing needs on the offensive side of the ball and Smith will improve the pass rush immensely.  The Bucs are a team on the rise and adding a guy who can get to the quarterback will make the back end of the defense better.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor NT (Baylor)

Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have grown into good NFL starters and all that’s missing is a space-eater at nosetackle.  The Chiefs could also use a receiver but with Green and Jones long gone, none make sense at #21.  The Chiefs made a quantum leap in terms of development last season and Taylor, while not a flashy pick, fills an important role.  

22. Indianapolis Colts – Mike Pouncey OG/C (Florida)

Carimi or Pouncey?  To me it’s Pouncey for a number of reasons.  Jeff Saturday is getting old and the Colts need upgrades at every position along the offensive line.  Pouncey can start at guard and take over for Saturday once he hangs them up.  I’d rather add a tackle here but Carimi is a better run blocker than a pass protector.  

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)

The Eagles could use an upgrade at the Right Tackle position and Carimi is perfect for that.  The Eagles are set at all the skill positions on offence and now that Vick has learned to hang in the pocket, it would prudent to give him as much time as possible.  

24. New Orleans Saints – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)

The Saints are another team with very few holes and should take the best player available.  To me that’s Ayers.  He didn’t test very well at the combine but is still a very good football player that plays faster than his 40 time would indicate.  I considered Corey Liuget but deemed Ayers the better prospect.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker QB (Washington)

And the home crowd goes wild!  Locker, the hometown hero, stays in Washington and can be the face of the franchise.  Clipboad Jesus did not impress me last year and thankfully only has a year left on the extension he signed.  Hasselbeck is a good guy for Locker to learn from and if he can fix his accuracy issues, Locker has all the intangibles to be successful at the NFL level.  

26. Baltimore Ravens – Ras-I Dowling CB (Virginia)

The Ravens need help in the secondary and, if not for injuries, Dowling is a top 15 talent.  He ran very well at the combine and in my opinion is the 4^th, if not 3^rd, best corner in the draft.  The Ravens could use a receiver to pair with Anquan Boldin but they can find a speed guy in the middle rounds.  Baltimore has been focusing too much on offence lately and need to start adding talent to a rapidly aging defense.  J.J Watt is the better prospect, but cornerback need wins out.  

27. Atlanta Falcons – Adrian Clayborn DE (Iowa)

The Falcons need to find someone to play on the other side of John Abraham.  Clayborn is a well-rounded prospect who is stout against the run and can get after the quarterback.  He projects as a solid starter, which is exactly what the Falcons need.  The play of Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson this year negates a need in the secondary.  

28. New England Patriots – J.J. Watt DE (Wisconsin)

Once again the Patriots luck out by having J.J. Watt slide to them here.  Watt, like Cameron Jordan, is a prototypical 5-tecnique end, which is precisely the position the Pats need to upgrade.  I thought about runningback (LeShoure/Rodgers) but with a number of them remaining, the Pats can grab one in the  2^nd round.  Adding Watt and Kerrigan could really improve this defense immediately. 

29. Chicago Bears – Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)

The Bears couldn’t protect Cutler well enough in the playoffs and need to have an influx of talent on the offensive line.  Mike Tice can teach Sherrod how to be an effective NFL lineman and aside from defensive tackle, Sherrod fills the biggest need.  This is a no brainer.

30. New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson DT/DE (Temple)

The Jets said goodbye to Shaun Ellis and should improve their end position.  New York has a finite amount of time to make a run as numerous contracts will be coming due in the near future.  Wilkerson is versatile and can step in and contribute right away (precisely what the Jets need).

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Brandon Harris CB (Miami)

The Steelers could not cover the Packers when they went to a spread formation in the Super Bowl and that is due in large part to their lack of corners.  Harris is undersized but is very fluid in coverage (Deion Sanders thought Harris ran the drills the best of anyone at the combine).  They could look to a guy like Rodney Hudson or Danny Watkins along the interior of the offensive line, but it’s a bit early for either of those players.

32. Green Bay Packers – Allen Bailey DE (Miami)

Bailey’s athleticism was on display at the combine and made me think he could even make the move to OLB in the 3-4 (similar to a LaMarr Woodely).  At 285 pounds, Bailey is also big enough to rotate in at the 5-technique on the defensive line.  He is exactly the type of luxury pick the Packers can afford and provides versatility.