Week 17 Pick'em

Season Record: 159-81

Detroit @ Green Bay
Neither team has anything to play for really, but given that these two teams could meet in the playoffs, it means a lot for team morale.  Detroit will want to prove they can win in Wisconsin.  UPDATE: Rodgers, Woodson and Matthews out.  Pick Change

Pick: Lions

San Francisco @ St. Louis
The Rams will have a very interesting decision to make should they land the #1 pick in the draft.

Pick: 49ers

New York Jets @ Miami
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Dolphins will win this.  The Jets are pretty much eliminated, and the Fins have been playing well.  However, the scenario that must occur for the Jets to get into the playoffs is not overly farfetched, and I imagine they will be fighting tooth and nail for their coach.

Pick: Jets

Chicago @ Minnesotta
What a disappointing year for these two teams.  A severe knee injury to Adrian Peterson changes how teams will play the Vikings.  Toby Gerhart is a solid back, but doesn't force defences to change the way they play.  Josh McCown played well last week in the loss.

Pick: Bears

Buffalo @ New England
Patriots still need to lock up home field advantage.  They play lights out at home.

Pick: Patriots

Carolina @ New Orleans
The Saints are still playing for home field advantage and although the Panthers have been playing much better football lately, no one has been able to slow the Saints offence.

Pick: Saints

Washington @ Philadelphia
Everyone in Philly must wonder what could've been if only their team had gotten its act together one week sooner.

Pick: Eagles

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
'You play to win the game' - Herm Edwards.  After all he's done for them, the team pulls out a win to save Peyton from an ugly offseason.

Pick: Colts

Tennessee @ Houston
Since clinching a playoff berth, the Texans haven't won a game.  They need to get back on track if they want to have any chance in the post season.

Pick: Texans

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Falcons are playing good football and are always better in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.  The Bucs have been the most disappointing team of 2011.

Pick: Falcons

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
If you think the Ravens are simply going to roll over, think again.  They need home field advantage and a loss combined with a Steelers win, forces them to play an extra game and go on the road.  Ray Lewis is showing some real signs of aging and his emotional leadership can only mask his physical deterioration for so long.

Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
It seems as though Big Ben will play this Sunday as the Steelers try and get home field advantage.  Of all playoff bound teams, the Steelers could use the bye week the most with the amount of injuries to key players.

Pick: Steelers

Kansas City @ Denver
Kyle Orton returns to put an end to the Broncos miracle run.  Sure it's true that Orton will be a man possessed trying to win this game.  Only problem is Tebow always plays like a man possessed and has won a lot more games than Orton.

Pick: Broncos

San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are the 2nd most disappointing team in 2011.  Still they can end a divisional rivals season and have the talent to do so.

Pick: Chargers

Seattle @ Arizona
Both teams have rallied since dismal starts to the season.  Special teams will decide this one.

Pick: Cardinals

Dallas @ New York
Couldn't finish out the season with a better game.  The Cowboys controlled the game right up until the final 5 minutes when these two faced off a few weeks ago.  I expect they'll find a way to hold on.

Pick: Cowboys

Christmas Rant: Rob Ryan Needs to Shut It

When Rex Ryan took over as the head coach of the New York Jets, it didn’t take long for the casual fan to find out what he was about.  Former players of his described him as a brash, outspoken and confident guy.  He didn’t disappoint.  Rex relished the spotlight and seemed to provide a new and controversial sound-bite every week.  Unfortunately the twin syndrome has kicked in and I’m ready to call out his loudmouth twin brother.

In his first year as defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has been the most outspoken ‘coordinator’ in NFL history.  He has constantly made claims about how well they’re going to play and pretty much been as loud and obnoxious as his brother.  The only problem is he isn’t the head coach.  Jason Garrett is, although you wouldn’t know it based on the number of sound-bites they each produce.  Today, NFL.com reported that Rob Ryan claimed his head coaching offer is ‘going to happen’ and it was ‘only a matter of time’.  Rob.  You’ve ranted enough.  It’s my turn.

Prior to joining the Jets in 2009, Rex ran the Ravens defense which consistently ranked in the top 3 in points against and yards allowed.  In his first season as head coach, the Jets defense ranked #1 and allowed a stingy 14.8 points per game.  Last year his defense ranked 3^rd overall and currently sits 7^th this year with two games to play.  Rob has the mouth and the look.  He doesn’t have the substance.  Over the last four years, Rob has been the defensive coordinator for the Raiders, Browns (2 seasons) and Cowboys.  His defenses have ranked 27^th, 31^st, 22^nd and currently sit 13^th this season.  He hasn’t even cracked the top 10. 

Whether Rex rubs you the wrong way or not, two things about him are respectable.  When he was a coordinator, he kept his brashness contained to the locker room as to not undermine the head coach.  When he finally was the leader in New York, he talked a lot – but backed it up.  Rob’s path has taken a bit longer, and although I don’t have a twin, I can imagine there is a fair amount of jealousy.  It’s really the only explanation for Rob acting like he’s the lead dog in Dallas and shooting his mouth all the time. 

In the words of Shooter Mcgavin – here’s a free lesson for you Rob: Shut your mouth and coach a defense that for once ranks in the top 5.  So far, it’s been a lot of talking and not a lot of walking.

Week 16 Pick'em

Season Record: 150 - 74 (#1 vs 8 ESPN Analysts)

Houston @ Indianapolis

Momentum is huge in the NFL.  The Colts finally winning a game will allow them to loosen up and play better.  They beat a quality football team in the Titans so it’s not out of the question they come up with an upset tonight.  Still, the Texans lead the league in rushing and defense.  A great combination.

Pick: Texans

Denver @ Buffalo

Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t play in the cold weather (it was painfully clear last week).  Poor conditions favours Tebow as defenders will not have sure footing. 

Pick: Broncos

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Both teams are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, but Cinci has a much more realistic chance of getting into the postseason.  The Cardinals are 6-1 while the Bengals are 3-4 over the last 7 weeks.  Patrick Peterson covering AJ Green should be interesting.  Expect this to be a close one.

Pick: Cardinals

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Chris Johnson isn’t healthy and may not play.  We’re not sure who will get the start at QB for the Titans.  Regardless, the Jags are not good and although they’ve shown that they can show up randomly, it’s not something I’m willing to bet on.

Pick: Titans

Oakland @ Kansas City

Two more teams that are battling mathematical elimination.  Romeo was able to dial up the perfect game plan for the Packers, the Raiders can’t be that difficult can they?

Pick: Chiefs

Miami @ New England

The Patriots offense is picking up steam and is playing well enough to win despite an awful defense.  Reggie Bush has been impressive this season and has backed up his claim that he is an every down back.  Brandon Marshall should have a big day.

Pick: Patriots

New York @ New York

As if it couldn’t get any better.  One New York team will have the privilege of essentially eliminating their hometown rival from playoff contention.  Believe me, whichever of these two teams gets into the playoffs will be dangerous.  In a game that is tough to predict, I have to go with the better QB.

Pick: Giants

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

Even without Big Ben the Steelers are miles ahead of the lowly Rams, who are a few losses away from a potential mind-blowing decision on Andrew Luck.

Pick: Steelers

Minnesota @ Washington

The “we got fooled by McNabb” Bowl.  Grossman should pass all over the Vikings who can’t cover anyone.  AP could have a big day running the ball as he will no doubt be on a mission to get 1000 yards on the season.

Pick: Redskins

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Two teams whose arrows are pointing in opposite directions.  For Christmas, Cam Newton wants to run the table like the Lions did last year.  Raheem Morris wants a job. 

Pick: Panthers

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Every time the Ravens lay an egg, they blast a team the following week.  They are undefeated at home this season and the Browns have already called it a year.  Ray Lewis is starting to show real signs of aging.

Pick: Ravens

San Diego @ Detroit

The key in this game will be whether or not the Chargers offensive line can protect Phil Rivers.  They were able to last week and as a result, handed the Ravens an ass-kicking.  The Lions can clinch a playoff berth so the home crowd will be rocking.

Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia @ Dallas

The Psyches in this one are the main story.  Dallas must be feeling the pressure and they know that a dangerous Eagles team is coming to town.  The Eagles have been written off and therefore can play loose (as they have the last few weeks). 

Pick: Eagles

San Francisco @ Seattle

Marshawn Lynch is the bell cow for Seattle but the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in months.  I can’t see Tarvaris Jackson making enough plays to win this one.

Pick: 49ers

Chicago @ Green Bay

This would’ve been a real Christmas treat if Josh “which” McCown wasn’t starting for the Bears.

Pick: Packers

Atlanta @ New Orleans

A great divisional game to close out the holiday weekend.  Brees has been unstoppable lately and is always at his best in the Super Dome.  The Saints don’t typically blow out divisional opponents because they are more prepared for the high flying Saints offence.  Matty Ice wants this one. Badly.

Pick: Falcons

Why Raheem Morris Must Go

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the most disappointing team this season.  After barely missing the playoffs last year with the youngest team in the league, there was reason for optimism heading into the 2011 campaign.  They proceeded to fall flat on their face. 

The first thing to consider is whether or not the team has the talent to contend.  In fact, I believe the Bucs are one of the most talented teams in the NFC.  Josh Freeman is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league and has all the tools to be a franchise player.  The offensive line is above average with Donald Penn and Davin Joseph as the best of the bunch.  Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow are quality receiving targets and LeGarette Blount is a power runner who bulldozes opponents. 

The defense is actually better.  The defensive line is loaded at every position and is among the most talented in the league.  The secondary is solid, despite Ronde Barber getting older and middle linebacker Mason Foster is a budding star.  Sure they could use some help at OLB but nobody’s perfect. 

The problem is head coach Raheem Morris and it’s shocking how similar his time in Tampa has mirrored that of Josh McDaniels tenure in Denver.  At the time they were hired, both were the youngest head coach in NFL history.  They both got off to hot starts and looked to have their teams in great shape.  Then, everything collapsed and McDaniels was fired before the end of his second season.  Morris will be lucky to finish his as well.

Don’t get me wrong, Morris is a smart defensive mind and it appears that his players like him.  However, as a young head coach, you need some help.  When Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, he had the legendary Dick Lebeau running the defense.  When Jon Gruden took over in Tampa, he had Monte Kiffin.  Even Packers head coach Mike McCarthy brought in Dom Capers to give him some help on the defensive side.  McDaniels didn’t.  After Mike Nolan left, he promoted his linebacker coach to defensive coordinator.  Things went downhill from there.

Raheem Morris also hired internally by promoting Greg Olson to the position of offensive coordinator.  He had a good first season, but now the wheels have fallen off.  Both are likely to lose their jobs and the Bucs are miles from where they thought they’d be at this juncture.

In business, if you want to have success, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with high quality people.  Having a strong support network is extremely valuable when faced with unique problems.  Whether McDaniels and Morris thought they could do it on their own is irrelevant.  They couldn’t.  As a young coach, Morris should’ve brought in an established veteran to run the offence (defense in McDaniels case).  It would’ve ensured that he could focus completely on the defense and have confidence that the offence would be in good hands.  Instead, the recipe of having two inexperienced coaches has proven ineffective and is about to cost another promising young coach his job.

McDaniels will get another shot (rumours suggest it might be as soon as 2012) because he is an offensive genius.  His next team will believe he has matured and is now fit to take over again as the ‘lead dog’.  Morris will likely become a coordinator again and have to earn another head coaching gig.  Both of them will be fine, but the next young hot shot who thinks he can go it alone, won’t be.  

Week 15 Pick'em

Season Record: 143 - 65 (#1 vs ESPN Analyst picks)

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Cowboys are playing good football, but just can't seem to hold on to a lead.  They've buckled hard in the final minutes over the last 2 weeks.  The Bucs are atrocious and rumours of Raheem Morris being fired will make things very tense in Tampa.

Pick: Cowboys

Miami @ Buffalo
The Bills will give their home fans a treat after really spiralling out of contention the last two months.

Pick: Bills

Seattle @ Chicago
The Bears got Tebowed last week but their defence has been very good since Cutler went out.  This is a must win for their playoff hopes, their at home, it's time.

Pick: Bears

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Jake Locker will likely get the call for the Titans at quarterback.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts might pull this out, but the Titans D is very good and Chris Johnson should run all over Indy.

Pick: Titans

Green Bay @ Kansas City
Jennings is out for the regular season.  Good thing the Packers 'next man up' is someone as talented as James Jones.

Pick: Packers

Cincinnati @ St. Louis
The Bengals will look to stay alive in the wild card race in St. Louis.  The Rams have been a real disappointment this season.

Pick: Bengals

New Orleans @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson returns for the Vikings but their secondary has looked atrocious lately.  Drew Brees should close in on Marino's record.

Pick: Saints

Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants have been up and down, but Eli Manning has really impressed me this season.  He has put himself in elite company this year and is playing as well as anyone not named Rodgers.

Pick: Giants

Carolina @ Houston
The Panthers are playing good football, but they are learning how to win still.  The Texans have their sites set on a playoff bye.

Pick: Texans

Detroit @ Oakland
Suh returns for the Lions in a must-win game for both teams.  Should be a battle in Cali.

Pick: Lions

New England @ Denver
Expect Tom Brady to have his foot on the gas pedal from the start as it appears the only way to beat Tim Tebow is to put the game out of reach by the time the 4th quarter rolls around.

Pick: Patriots

New York Jets @ Philadelphia
The Jets are in the fight of their lives for a playoff berth.  Their run game has come on strong lately.  Philly has enough talent to beat anyone at any time.

Pick: Jets

Cleveland @ Arizona
McCoy may be out.  Zona has played much better the last few weeks knocking off some great teams in the 49ers and Cowboys.

Pick: Cardinals

Baltimore @ San Diego
The Ravens get Ray lewis back this week and Suggs has been playing at an MVP level the last month.  The Chargers always play better late in the season, but their offensive line is in for a tough day.

Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
Ben Roethlisberger is a true warrior and I can't imagine he misses this game.  If he's out I might revise the pick but if he's in, I'll take the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers

The Evolution of the Tight End

 In January of 2004, Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts squared off against Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in one of the most memorable AFC Championship games in recent history.  In that game, the Patriots secondary bullied the Colts wide receivers off the line of scrimmage prompting the NFL to review the rules on contacting receivers.  The following season, referees cracked down on the ‘chuck’ rule, which limits defenders to contacting receivers only within the first five yards.  What effect did it have?  Well, in that same year, Peyton Manning broke a number of passing records including touchdowns in a season and the NFL began a full scale transition into the pass-happy league it is today.  The game has since turned into basketball on turf and no one has benefited more than tight ends.

Teams used to cover tight-ends with linebackers.  They would use their size and strength to stymie the tight-ends at the line of scrimmage.  Once the ‘chuck’ rule was enforced, linebackers couldn’t get away with such tactics anymore.  They were exposed in coverage as they lacked the athleticism to stay with the more gifted tight-ends.  The most prolific offences in the NFL right now feature tight-ends.  The Packers are the only team with 5 of them on the active roster and Jermichael Finley is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the league.  The Patriots drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez early in the 2010 draft who have become the focal point of Belichick’s offensive system.  The Saints Jimmy Graham is leading all tight-ends in catches and he played more basketball than football in university.

The question defenses must ask is - how do we stop them?  When Rob Gronkowski comes on to the football field, who do you put out there to cover him?  The vast majority of linebackers are not athletic enough to stay with him and even if they are, his wingspan and height make it almost impossible to cover him on jump balls.  Safeties have the speed but definitely not the size.  Gronk, Finley and Graham are the new generation whose path was carved out by guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, former basketball players who, given a clean release from the line of scrimmage, could use rebounding technique and body position to ‘box-out’ smaller defenders.  Even now NFL rules continue to change to protect receivers.  Flags for hits on ‘defenseless receivers’ are only making it easier for offensive passing systems as receivers no longer fear catching balls in traffic.

The rule changes in the passing game have made these guys almost impossible to stop.  Fear not, I have a solution.

Offensive scouts now spend a great deal of time and effort evaluating college basketball stars in hopes they find the next Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates.  Since apparently no one can guard these guys on the field, maybe defensive coaches should head to the basketball gym as well.  Who better to cover Jimmy Graham than say, Jimmy Graham?  The obvious issue is that tall guys have difficulty tackling, though tackling itself has become a lost art.  Even if he isn’t a great tackler, having a ‘coverage specialist’ to play on 3^rd downs and certain situations could be the key to winning games. 

It would be an experiment for sure, but as the Packers, Patriots and Saints have proved, in the constantly changing NFL it’s better to be ahead of the curve than left behind.  

Week 14 Pick'em

Season Record 129-63 (#1 out of 8 ESPN Analysts)

Houston @ Cincinnati

I’ve always believed Wade Phillips was a better coordinator than head coach. His Texans are allowing the lowest average yardage per game in the NFL. People will doubt TJ Yates, but in a game that will come down to who runs the ball better, I like the Texans run game more.

Pick: Texans

Minnesota @ Detroit
The Lions are in the thick of the wildcard race and should blow past the depleted Vikings. Christian Ponder may be out and AP will not be 100% if he suits up. If Tebow can light up the Vikes secondary, I imagine Stafford and Megatron can as well.

Pick: Lions

New Orleans @ Tennessee
New Orleans has looked unstoppable lately; however they face a team that matches up very well against them. The field in Tennessee is grass and the Titans can create pressure with their front four. The Saints have a let down game.

Pick: Titans

Philadelphia @ Miami
I have no idea what to say about this game. On paper, the Eagles are the best team in the league and have been awful. The Dolphins went from being the worst team in the league to winners of 4 straight. The Eagles know it’s over but Mike Vick has something to prove in his first game back.

Pick: Eagles

Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Kyle Orton era lasted less than a quarter and the Chiefs turn back to Tyler Palko. The Jets are still in the hunt and typically start to play better as we get into December.

Pick: Jets

New England @ Washington
Due to a weak schedule, the Patriots have a realistic chance at seizing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This might be their toughest test.

Pick: Patriots

Atlanta @ Carolina
In my opinion, the Panthers have already transitioned into a playoff team. What I mean is, although they are too far behind, they are competing like a playoff team. This will be a great one as the Falcons need the win badly and the Panthers are one of the most dangerous teams in the league to face.

Pick: Falcons

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
I’m not even sure if people in Florida care about this one.

Pick: Bucs

Indianapolis @ Baltimore
The Colts have already turned their attention away from this season and towards the Luck/Manning mess that is sure to come.

Pick: Ravens

Chicago @ Denver
The Bears defense must be livid after playing very well against the Chiefs and losing 10-3 (all because of a hail mary touchdown). This week they know that the Tebow Train is rolling in and the crowd will be going bonkers. Who will be able to generate offence on the Bears?

Pick: Broncos

San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers do not take games off. The Cardinals are the epitome of sporadic.

Pick: 49ers

Oakland @ Green Bay
Clearly the Giants were insane to leave 55 seconds on the clock last week. Although the Packers looked like they could’ve done it in 15 seconds if necessary.

Pick: Packers

Buffalo @ San Diego
The Chargers always start to play better when they are flirting with mathematical elimination. Read my article on the Bills if you want the good, because this week’s west coast road trip is bad.

Pick: Chargers

New York Giants @ Dallas
No love lost in this one. The Giants roll into big D for a pivotal game against the Cowboys. The Giants come away with a shocker.

Pick: Giants

St. Louis @ Seattle
A rematch of last year’s win-and-your-in game will not have the same entertainment value. Both teams have been atrocious but Seattle is a tough place to play and they’ll be revved up on Monday night. Marshawn has solidified himself as a feature ball carrier.

Pick: Seahawks