With the draft less than a month away, here's a look at what teams will be looking to accomplish in the first round.
#1. St Louis Rams – Sam Bradford QB
The pick here has to be Bradford. I don’t blame the Rams for taking Long or Smith because both seemed to be quality picks but the reality is the Rams passed on Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. They can’t afford to not pick a quarterback here because who knows when they will be in position to select one again. I’ll go on record saying that I believe Jimmy Clausen will be a better NFL player than Bradford but the Rams seem to prefer Bradford and the pick must be a QB.
#2. Detroit Lions – Russell Okung OT
Going into the offseason the Lions had two major needs: Left Tackle to protect Stafford and upgrading the defense. With Suh and McCoy as the top two prospects in this draft I initially believed one of them would be the pick. However, the Lions acquired Corey Williams in a trade with the Browns. Williams is a quality starter in the NFL and I believe this move indicates that the Lions will go offensive tackle with the #2 pick. Taking Okung would not only upgrade the LT position but also allow Jeff Backus to move to the interior or over the right side which effectively upgrades the line at two spots. If Okung turns out to be the player everyone thinks he is, the Lions offense will take a big leap forward this season.
#3. Tampa Bay Bucaneers – Ndamukong Suh DT
I’ve heard a lot of talk that Gerald McCoy is the better fit for Raheem Morris’s scheme especially given they are moving back to the Tampa 2 which requires the D-line to get penetration. In my opinion Suh is the better prospect. When it comes down to crunch time, the Bucs will find it too hard to pass on Suh.
#4. Washington Redskins – Jimmy Clausen QB
Although the bigger need here is at offensive tackle, new regimes mean new quarterbacks, especially when the head coach is Mike Shanahan. As I stated earlier, Jimmy Clausen will be a better NFL quarterback than Bradford. He has spent three years in an NFL offense and showed considerable improvement each year. Clausen showed his toughness by playing through a toe injury on his plant foot for most of the 2009 season. Any injury that affects a quarterback’s ability to stick his foot in the ground and drive off his back leg will decrease velocity and accuracy. Even with this injury, Clausen protected the ball extremely well throwing only four interceptions all season.
The questions about his leadership are inaccurate. He works hard, is a fierce competitor and confidence bordering on cockiness is not necessarily a bad thing (see Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Tom Brady) if he can back it up, which he can. After his workout April 9th, don’t be surprised if he moves onto the Rams radar and battles Bradford for the #1 spot.
#5. Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga OT
Selecting a tackle here will have a trickledown effect that will result in a much improved offensive line. I believe the pick will be Bulaga given the history between Kirk Ferentz and Scott Pioli. For those of you who don’t know they worked on the Browns staff together and Ferentz is an offensive line coach by trade. If Ferentz believes in Bulaga, I suspect Pioli will as well. Bulaga is a polished technician who can be inserted into the left tackle position from day one. This will allow current LT Branden Albert to move back to his natural guard position. The thought process here is very similar to what I see the Lions doing with Okung-Backus except Albert could become a pro bowler at his former position.
Don’t rule out Eric Berry as the Chiefs are also in need of a safety. However, we saw last year that Pioli prefers positional value over the best player available strategy when he picked Jackson over Curry. Upgrading the line is essential if the Chiefs want to know exactly what they have in Matt Cassel.
#6. Seattle Seahawks – Gerald McCoy DT
Seattle has a lot of needs, the most pressing being OT. That being said, the fact that McCoy is still on the board at this pick will be too tempting. McCoy is arguably the best talent in the draft and the Seahawks aren’t exactly ‘set’ at the DT position. I think one of the top tackles will still be available at #14 and the Seahawks can address their need with that pick.
#7. Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry S
The Browns need to add more playmakers on both sides of the ball, period. Eric Berry fits the bill and is considered one of the top prospects in this class. The fact that he is a safety might keep him out of the top five but I’d be shocked if he slips past Cleveland here. Berry will immediately upgrade the secondary, an area of weakness, and give the defence a young leader.
#8. Oakland Raiders – Trent Williams OT
Picking Williams defied the traditional ‘athletic freak’ draft style of Al Davis but there are a few reasons why I believe he will stray from his strategy in 2010. The biggest need for the Raiders is offensive tackle and with a deep group of tackles in this class, I can’t see them going another way. It appears that Al Davis is growing more and more comfortable with Tom Cable, who is an offensive line coach by trade. I believe Davis will lean on Cable’s expertise in this area and recognizes that Williams is the best prospect on the board. Unless he is completely senile, Davis must realize that his strategy has produced a lot of flops in recent years (Heyward-bey, Russell). For these reasons I believe Williams will be the pick, although I would be interested to see what Cable could do with Campbell. Could be a match made in heaven.
#9. Buffalo Bills – Anthony Davis OT
I think this is a reach for Anthony Davis but last season the Bills chose not to ‘reach’ for Michael Oher and look how that turned out. In no way am I comparing Davis to Oher but this is a situation where need has to outweigh best player available. Gailey has recently made some comments regarding the need to upgrade the offensive line and his commitment to running the ball. Taking the fourth tackle on the board at #9 overall is a tough pill to swallow but I think it’s the pick. If they wait to select a Charles Johnson or Ducasse in the second round, I see Dez Bryant/CJ Spiller going here.
#10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Joe Haden CB
Having been a Jags fan since 1997, I have watched the ups and downs of this franchise very closely. The biggest reason this team could not build on its success from a few years ago is their inability to hit on picks in the first round (See Leftwich, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Derrick Harvey, Marcedes Lewis).
Rashean Mathis’s play has declined in the last two seasons and when you’re looking to unseat the Colts, you better be able to rush the passer and cover receivers. Derrick Morgan is a consideration here but I think Haden is a bigger need. The Jags will likely see how the addition of Aaron Kampman will effect the development of Quentin Groves and Harvey. Haden is a local product and the Jacksonville fans are really Gators fans. The Jags need to draw fans and adding a Gator is always a good way to do so.
#11. Denver Broncos – Dez Bryant WR
It seems as though Brandon Marshall’s days in Denver are all but over. I’d be surprised if a team was willing to part with a first round pick to acquire his services, even though his performance is definitely worth it. A Josh McDaniels pass happy offense does not look very threatening with Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as the starting receivers. Dez Bryant is a top ten talent and adding him would allow Royal to play the slot, where he is more effective.
The Broncos do have needs on defence, primarily at NT, ILB and S, but with two second round picks and two fourth round picks (assuming they are compensated a 2nd and 4th for Marshall), they will have enough ammunition to move up and take a Terrence Cody, or one of the solid backers pegged in the second round such as Sean Lee or Brandon Spikes.
#12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams NT
At age 35, Jason Ferguson’s play has already started to taper off. A good nose tackle is vital to the success of any 3-4 defence and Bill Parcells knows this. Upgrading the OLB position is important but I think they can address this need in the second or third round.
#13. San Francisco 49ers – Earl Thomas S
The 49ers hoped Joe Haden would fall to them here but Thomas is a great consolation prize. They will give consideration to CJ Spiller but I think Thomas pays bigger dividends when looking at the 49ers roster. Thomas is a playmaker and Mike Singletary will love his versatility. Had Thomas decided to return for his senior season, Mack Brown was planning on moving him to corner, a testament to his athleticism and cover skills.
#14. Seattle Seahawks – CJ Spiller RB
The Seahawks would’ve liked to select one of the top offensive tackles here but Charles Johnson or Bruce Campbell is a major reach at #14. Julius Jones is at best an NFL backup and Justin Forsett has explosive ability but is more of a change of pace back. Spiller is a top ten talent who will immediately bolster the Seahawks offense both running the ball and in the passing game. Combining him with Forsett gives the Seahawks a dangerous tandem in the backfield.
#15. New York Giants – Derrick Morgan DE
If Derrick Morgan falls this far the Giants will be the winners of the first round. I don’t believe he will be on the board at this point but I can’t see him fitting in anywhere else. Perhaps a team will trade up anywhere between #9 and #13 to select Morgan but for the meantime he goes to the Giants. He is strong against the run and can rush the passer as well as any. Morgan, a top ten talent, slides because of the number of 3-4 defences that pick ahead of the Giants.
#16. Tennessee Titans – Jason Pierre-Paul DE
If either Pierre-Paul or Morgan are on the board when the Titans pick, they will be sprinting to hand in their draft card. Pierre-Paul has a rare blend of size and speed and there is no limit to his upside. He was only a one year wonder at South Florida but Jeff Fisher’s coaching style should bring out the best in him. Titans fans meet your new Jevon Kearse.
#17. San Francisco 49ers – Mike Iupati OG
The 49ers would like to add an offensive tackle but adding this mauler will improve the offensive line and pay immediate dividends in the run game. Iupati is one of the best guard prospects to enter the draft in the last decade and some scouts suggest he can move to Right Tackle. I would leave him at guard and be happy that you have a pro bowl talent at that position for the next ten years.
#18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Rolando McClain ILB
If Maurkice Pouncey, Kyle Wilson and McClain are on the board at this point, it could be a dice roll for the Steelers. Wilson fills the biggest need on the team, Pouncey would help satisfy Art Rooney Jr.’s desire to return to the old smash mouth Steeler way, and McClain is the best player available. Larry Foote and James Farrior are stop gaps and pairing McClain with Lawrence Timmons is too enticing to pass up.
#19. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Graham DE/OLB
The Falcons need to get to Drew Brees if they want to contend for the division title. Although Graham lacks the ideal height for the position, he has great pass rush skills, is stout against the run and has a great motor. What more could you ask for?
#20. Houston Texans – Kyle Wilson CB
Unfortunately for Texans fans this pick is not an upgrade but rather a necessary replacement for Dunta Robinson. Kyle Wilson has great cover skills and didn’t get as much national attention playing for Boise State. When you play in the Colts division you better be able to cover.
#21. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermaine Gresham TE
I think Gresham was a better prospect last year than Brandon Pettigrew and he went 21st overall last year. If the Bengals are serious about winning a championship they need to give Carson Palmer the tools to succeed. He is a top quarterback in the NFL and has rebounded nicely from his serious knee injury. The NFL is a passing league and adding Gresham will give Palmer the best supporting cast since he had TJ and Chad. There has been talk of Taylor Mays going here because he fits nicely into Mike Zimmer’s scheme, but it’s time the Bengals spent a first round pick on helping Palmer.
#22. New England Patriots – Sergio Kindle OLB
Here is where the Patriots long term strategy is going to pay off. They have three picks in the second round which gives them a lot of assets that they can use to move around in the draft. Kindle has similar measurable to Brian Orakpo who had a monster rookie season in Washington. He also played the hybrid position while he was at Texas and therefore is a safer bet to have success at the NFL level. Look for the Pats to use their second round picks to move up and ensure they get Penn State’s Jared Odrick. With two first round picks in 2011 (Oakland’s will likely be a top 12) the Patriots should get to at least one more Superbowl before Brady’s time is up.
#23. Green Bay Packers – Charles Johnson OT
If Charles Johnson, Maurkice Pouncey and Taylor Mays are on the board at this point, the Packers will have a tough decision to make. Ted Thompson usually takes the best player available which at this point is Pouncey. Mays would fit very nicely into this defence since Nick Collins could make up for his shortcomings in coverage. That being said, the Packers have a glaring need at offensive tackle. Although he is the 5th rated tackle, he is still a first round talent and could help protect Aaron Rodgers which is the biggest concern for the Packers. Without Rodgers the Packers are a 5-11 football team. Do the math.
#24. Philadelphia Eagles – Maurkice Pouncey C/OG
Losing Jamaal Jackson last season to a season ending injury was a big part of the reason the Eagles were destroyed by the Cowboys in the playoffs. Jay Ratliff caused headaches all day for the Eagles offense. When Albert Haynesworth and Jay Ratliff play in your division, you must have a good interior offensive line. Pouncey is almost as good a prospect as Nick Mangold was and everyone knows how that pick turned out for the Jets.
#25. Baltimore Ravens – Devin McCourty CB
The Ravens need an upgrade at corner badly and McCourty is the best on the board. The Ravens could also select Jared Odrick here if they feel they need to address the depth at the DE position. I don’t think this is as pressing as the need at corner. I will add that I think it will be beneficial for the Ravens to take a top notch inside linebacker in either this draft or 2011. Letting a guy like Brandon Spikes learn from Ray Lewis for a few years is a great long term plan.
#26. Arizona Cardinals – Sean Weatherspoon LB
Losing Karlos Dansby to the Dolphins leaves a big gap in the Cardinals defence. Signing Joey Porter will provide them with solid production on the outside for at least two seasons, but they still need help on the interior. In my opinion Weatherspoon is a steal here and his versatility will be beneficial in Billy Davis’s scheme, especially when they play their ‘amoeba’ defence.
#27. Dallas Cowboys – Demaryius Thomas WR
The Cowboys rush to the podium to make this selection as they acquire the perfect vertical threat to pair with Miles Austin. I’m not sure Thomas will be much more than a guy who can stretch the field as I’m not convinced his route running/run after the catch skills are up to par. If Ray Sherman, the Cowboys wide receiver coach, can harness Thomas’s raw talent, the sky is the limit.
#28. San Diego Chargers – Terrence Cody NT
Terrence Cody has a unique skill set that 3-4 teams value. His weight at the Senior Bowl was a little concerning but since then he has dropped weight and seems to be taking his conditioning seriously. He is the ultimate space eater and San Diego needs to replace the void they created when they released Jamaal Williams.
#29. New York Jets – Golden Tate WR
Don’t be surprised if the Jets move up in the first round to try and get either Sergio Kindle or Mike Iupati. The Jets are in need of a quality edge rusher to shore up the only real weakness on a stout defence. Also with Alan Faneca nearing retirement it is vital that the Jets find a replacement for him since their team philosophy is to dominate in the run game.
That being said the Jets need to add a top notch receiver for Mark Sanchez. I like Benn more than Tate but with Edwards and Cotchery on the outside, Tate is a better fit in the slot. He is versatile and tough, both traits that Rex Ryan loves.
#30. Minnesota Vikings – Taylor Mays S
Even with all the questions regarding his cover skills, I think the Vikings are thrilled he is still on the board at this point. Mays has a freakish blend of size and speed and if things don’t work out for him at Safety, I still see him contributing potentially at linebacker the way Thomas Davis made the switch for the Panthers. The Vikings will also look at Patrick Robinson here and if they feel he is the better player to upgrade their secondary, he will be the pick. Jahvid Best has some value here after the Vikings lost out on the Tomlinson sweepstakes.
#31. Indianapolis Colts – Bruce Campbell OT
The Colts need help on the offensive line and Campbell is a tremendous athlete who could develop into a stud left tackle in the NFL. If the Colts aren’t sold on Campbell this pick likely has high trade value and they could look to move down into the top end of round 2.
#32. New Orleans Saints – Brian Price DT
Like the Colts, the Saints could trade down from this position. If they hold onto the pick, I think they go with Price. He is a powerful defensive tackle and is a top 20 talent that addresses a position of need for the Saints.
*I think a great move for the Saints would be moving back a spot and trading this pick to the Rams. The Rams need help at defensive tackle and would jump at the chance to add Price. The Saints would likely get a late get a fifth round pick for moving back and would then hold the #33 overall pick. This pick has great trade value with the new format of the draft. Following the first round Friday night, GM’s will have time to analyze who is still on the board and a number of teams will be looking to acquire this pick.
-Jansen-
