Season Record: 159-81
Detroit @ Green Bay
Neither team has anything to play for really, but given that these two teams could meet in the playoffs, it means a lot for team morale. Detroit will want to prove they can win in Wisconsin. UPDATE: Rodgers, Woodson and Matthews out. Pick Change
Pick: Lions
San Francisco @ St. Louis
The Rams will have a very interesting decision to make should they land the #1 pick in the draft.
Pick: 49ers
New York Jets @ Miami
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Dolphins will win this. The Jets are pretty much eliminated, and the Fins have been playing well. However, the scenario that must occur for the Jets to get into the playoffs is not overly farfetched, and I imagine they will be fighting tooth and nail for their coach.
Pick: Jets
Chicago @ Minnesotta
What a disappointing year for these two teams. A severe knee injury to Adrian Peterson changes how teams will play the Vikings. Toby Gerhart is a solid back, but doesn't force defences to change the way they play. Josh McCown played well last week in the loss.
Pick: Bears
Buffalo @ New England
Patriots still need to lock up home field advantage. They play lights out at home.
Pick: Patriots
Carolina @ New Orleans
The Saints are still playing for home field advantage and although the Panthers have been playing much better football lately, no one has been able to slow the Saints offence.
Pick: Saints
Washington @ Philadelphia
Everyone in Philly must wonder what could've been if only their team had gotten its act together one week sooner.
Pick: Eagles
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
'You play to win the game' - Herm Edwards. After all he's done for them, the team pulls out a win to save Peyton from an ugly offseason.
Pick: Colts
Tennessee @ Houston
Since clinching a playoff berth, the Texans haven't won a game. They need to get back on track if they want to have any chance in the post season.
Pick: Texans
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Falcons are playing good football and are always better in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. The Bucs have been the most disappointing team of 2011.
Pick: Falcons
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
If you think the Ravens are simply going to roll over, think again. They need home field advantage and a loss combined with a Steelers win, forces them to play an extra game and go on the road. Ray Lewis is showing some real signs of aging and his emotional leadership can only mask his physical deterioration for so long.
Pick: Ravens
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
It seems as though Big Ben will play this Sunday as the Steelers try and get home field advantage. Of all playoff bound teams, the Steelers could use the bye week the most with the amount of injuries to key players.
Pick: Steelers
Kansas City @ Denver
Kyle Orton returns to put an end to the Broncos miracle run. Sure it's true that Orton will be a man possessed trying to win this game. Only problem is Tebow always plays like a man possessed and has won a lot more games than Orton.
Pick: Broncos
San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are the 2nd most disappointing team in 2011. Still they can end a divisional rivals season and have the talent to do so.
Pick: Chargers
Seattle @ Arizona
Both teams have rallied since dismal starts to the season. Special teams will decide this one.
Pick: Cardinals
Dallas @ New York
Couldn't finish out the season with a better game. The Cowboys controlled the game right up until the final 5 minutes when these two faced off a few weeks ago. I expect they'll find a way to hold on.
Pick: Cowboys
Friday, December 30, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Christmas Rant: Rob Ryan Needs to Shut It
When Rex Ryan took over as the head coach of the New York Jets, it didn’t take long for the casual fan to find out what he was about. Former players of his described him as a brash, outspoken and confident guy. He didn’t disappoint. Rex relished the spotlight and seemed to provide a new and controversial sound-bite every week. Unfortunately the twin syndrome has kicked in and I’m ready to call out his loudmouth twin brother.
In his first year as defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has been the most outspoken ‘coordinator’ in NFL history. He has constantly made claims about how well they’re going to play and pretty much been as loud and obnoxious as his brother. The only problem is he isn’t the head coach. Jason Garrett is, although you wouldn’t know it based on the number of sound-bites they each produce. Today, NFL.com reported that Rob Ryan claimed his head coaching offer is ‘going to happen’ and it was ‘only a matter of time’. Rob. You’ve ranted enough. It’s my turn.
Prior to joining the Jets in 2009, Rex ran the Ravens defense which consistently ranked in the top 3 in points against and yards allowed. In his first season as head coach, the Jets defense ranked #1 and allowed a stingy 14.8 points per game. Last year his defense ranked 3rd overall and currently sits 7th this year with two games to play. Rob has the mouth and the look. He doesn’t have the substance. Over the last four years, Rob has been the defensive coordinator for the Raiders, Browns (2 seasons) and Cowboys. His defenses have ranked 27th, 31st, 22nd and currently sit 13th this season. He hasn’t even cracked the top 10.
Whether Rex rubs you the wrong way or not, two things about him are respectable. When he was a coordinator, he kept his brashness contained to the locker room as to not undermine the head coach. When he finally was the leader in New York Dallas
In the words of Shooter Mcgavin – here’s a free lesson for you Rob: Shut your mouth and coach a defense that for once ranks in the top 5. So far, it’s been a lot of talking and not a lot of walking.
Week 16 Pick'em
Momentum is huge in the NFL. The Colts finally winning a game will allow them to loosen up and play better. They beat a quality football team in the Titans so it’s not out of the question they come up with an upset tonight. Still, the Texans lead the league in rushing and defense. A great combination.
Pick: Texans
Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t play in the cold weather (it was painfully clear last week). Poor conditions favours Tebow as defenders will not have sure footing.
Pick: Broncos
Both teams are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, but Cinci has a much more realistic chance of getting into the postseason. The Cardinals are 6-1 while the Bengals are 3-4 over the last 7 weeks. Patrick Peterson covering AJ Green should be interesting. Expect this to be a close one.
Pick: Cardinals
Chris Johnson isn’t healthy and may not play. We’re not sure who will get the start at QB for the Titans. Regardless, the Jags are not good and although they’ve shown that they can show up randomly, it’s not something I’m willing to bet on.
Pick: Titans
Two more teams that are battling mathematical elimination. Romeo was able to dial up the perfect game plan for the Packers, the Raiders can’t be that difficult can they?
Pick: Chiefs
The Patriots offense is picking up steam and is playing well enough to win despite an awful defense. Reggie Bush has been impressive this season and has backed up his claim that he is an every down back. Brandon Marshall should have a big day.
Pick: Patriots
As if it couldn’t get any better. One New York
Pick: Giants
Even without Big Ben the Steelers are miles ahead of the lowly Rams, who are a few losses away from a potential mind-blowing decision on Andrew Luck.
Pick: Steelers
The “we got fooled by McNabb” Bowl. Grossman should pass all over the Vikings who can’t cover anyone. AP could have a big day running the ball as he will no doubt be on a mission to get 1000 yards on the season.
Pick: Redskins
Two teams whose arrows are pointing in opposite directions. For Christmas, Cam Newton wants to run the table like the Lions did last year. Raheem Morris wants a job.
Pick: Panthers
Every time the Ravens lay an egg, they blast a team the following week. They are undefeated at home this season and the Browns have already called it a year. Ray Lewis is starting to show real signs of aging.
Pick: Ravens
The key in this game will be whether or not the Chargers offensive line can protect Phil Rivers. They were able to last week and as a result, handed the Ravens an ass-kicking. The Lions can clinch a playoff berth so the home crowd will be rocking.
Pick: Chargers
The Psyches in this one are the main story. Dallas
Pick: Eagles
Marshawn Lynch is the bell cow for Seattle
Pick: 49ers
This would’ve been a real Christmas treat if Josh “which” McCown wasn’t starting for the Bears.
Pick: Packers
A great divisional game to close out the holiday weekend. Brees has been unstoppable lately and is always at his best in the Super Dome. The Saints don’t typically blow out divisional opponents because they are more prepared for the high flying Saints offence. Matty Ice wants this one. Badly.
Pick: Falcons
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Why Raheem Morris Must Go
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the most disappointing team this season. After barely missing the playoffs last year with the youngest team in the league, there was reason for optimism heading into the 2011 campaign. They proceeded to fall flat on their face.
The first thing to consider is whether or not the team has the talent to contend. In fact, I believe the Bucs are one of the most talented teams in the NFC. Josh Freeman is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league and has all the tools to be a franchise player. The offensive line is above average with Donald Penn and Davin Joseph as the best of the bunch. Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow are quality receiving targets and LeGarette Blount is a power runner who bulldozes opponents.
The defense is actually better. The defensive line is loaded at every position and is among the most talented in the league. The secondary is solid, despite Ronde Barber getting older and middle linebacker Mason Foster is a budding star. Sure they could use some help at OLB but nobody’s perfect.
The problem is head coach Raheem Morris and it’s shocking how similar his time in Tampa has mirrored that of Josh McDaniels tenure in Denver
Don’t get me wrong, Morris is a smart defensive mind and it appears that his players like him. However, as a young head coach, you need some help. When Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh Tampa
Raheem Morris also hired internally by promoting Greg Olson to the position of offensive coordinator. He had a good first season, but now the wheels have fallen off. Both are likely to lose their jobs and the Bucs are miles from where they thought they’d be at this juncture.
In business, if you want to have success, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with high quality people. Having a strong support network is extremely valuable when faced with unique problems. Whether McDaniels and Morris thought they could do it on their own is irrelevant. They couldn’t. As a young coach, Morris should’ve brought in an established veteran to run the offence (defense in McDaniels case). It would’ve ensured that he could focus completely on the defense and have confidence that the offence would be in good hands. Instead, the recipe of having two inexperienced coaches has proven ineffective and is about to cost another promising young coach his job.
McDaniels will get another shot (rumours suggest it might be as soon as 2012) because he is an offensive genius. His next team will believe he has matured and is now fit to take over again as the ‘lead dog’. Morris will likely become a coordinator again and have to earn another head coaching gig. Both of them will be fine, but the next young hot shot who thinks he can go it alone, won’t be.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Week 15 Pick'em
Season Record: 143 - 65 (#1 vs ESPN Analyst picks)
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Cowboys are playing good football, but just can't seem to hold on to a lead. They've buckled hard in the final minutes over the last 2 weeks. The Bucs are atrocious and rumours of Raheem Morris being fired will make things very tense in Tampa.
Pick: Cowboys
Miami @ Buffalo
The Bills will give their home fans a treat after really spiralling out of contention the last two months.
Pick: Bills
Seattle @ Chicago
The Bears got Tebowed last week but their defence has been very good since Cutler went out. This is a must win for their playoff hopes, their at home, it's time.
Pick: Bears
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Jake Locker will likely get the call for the Titans at quarterback. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts might pull this out, but the Titans D is very good and Chris Johnson should run all over Indy.
Pick: Titans
Green Bay @ Kansas City
Jennings is out for the regular season. Good thing the Packers 'next man up' is someone as talented as James Jones.
Pick: Packers
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
The Bengals will look to stay alive in the wild card race in St. Louis. The Rams have been a real disappointment this season.
Pick: Bengals
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson returns for the Vikings but their secondary has looked atrocious lately. Drew Brees should close in on Marino's record.
Pick: Saints
Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants have been up and down, but Eli Manning has really impressed me this season. He has put himself in elite company this year and is playing as well as anyone not named Rodgers.
Pick: Giants
Carolina @ Houston
The Panthers are playing good football, but they are learning how to win still. The Texans have their sites set on a playoff bye.
Pick: Texans
Detroit @ Oakland
Suh returns for the Lions in a must-win game for both teams. Should be a battle in Cali.
Pick: Lions
New England @ Denver
Expect Tom Brady to have his foot on the gas pedal from the start as it appears the only way to beat Tim Tebow is to put the game out of reach by the time the 4th quarter rolls around.
Pick: Patriots
New York Jets @ Philadelphia
The Jets are in the fight of their lives for a playoff berth. Their run game has come on strong lately. Philly has enough talent to beat anyone at any time.
Pick: Jets
Cleveland @ Arizona
McCoy may be out. Zona has played much better the last few weeks knocking off some great teams in the 49ers and Cowboys.
Pick: Cardinals
Baltimore @ San Diego
The Ravens get Ray lewis back this week and Suggs has been playing at an MVP level the last month. The Chargers always play better late in the season, but their offensive line is in for a tough day.
Pick: Ravens
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
Ben Roethlisberger is a true warrior and I can't imagine he misses this game. If he's out I might revise the pick but if he's in, I'll take the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Cowboys are playing good football, but just can't seem to hold on to a lead. They've buckled hard in the final minutes over the last 2 weeks. The Bucs are atrocious and rumours of Raheem Morris being fired will make things very tense in Tampa.
Pick: Cowboys
Miami @ Buffalo
The Bills will give their home fans a treat after really spiralling out of contention the last two months.
Pick: Bills
Seattle @ Chicago
The Bears got Tebowed last week but their defence has been very good since Cutler went out. This is a must win for their playoff hopes, their at home, it's time.
Pick: Bears
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Jake Locker will likely get the call for the Titans at quarterback. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts might pull this out, but the Titans D is very good and Chris Johnson should run all over Indy.
Pick: Titans
Green Bay @ Kansas City
Jennings is out for the regular season. Good thing the Packers 'next man up' is someone as talented as James Jones.
Pick: Packers
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
The Bengals will look to stay alive in the wild card race in St. Louis. The Rams have been a real disappointment this season.
Pick: Bengals
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson returns for the Vikings but their secondary has looked atrocious lately. Drew Brees should close in on Marino's record.
Pick: Saints
Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants have been up and down, but Eli Manning has really impressed me this season. He has put himself in elite company this year and is playing as well as anyone not named Rodgers.
Pick: Giants
Carolina @ Houston
The Panthers are playing good football, but they are learning how to win still. The Texans have their sites set on a playoff bye.
Pick: Texans
Detroit @ Oakland
Suh returns for the Lions in a must-win game for both teams. Should be a battle in Cali.
Pick: Lions
New England @ Denver
Expect Tom Brady to have his foot on the gas pedal from the start as it appears the only way to beat Tim Tebow is to put the game out of reach by the time the 4th quarter rolls around.
Pick: Patriots
New York Jets @ Philadelphia
The Jets are in the fight of their lives for a playoff berth. Their run game has come on strong lately. Philly has enough talent to beat anyone at any time.
Pick: Jets
Cleveland @ Arizona
McCoy may be out. Zona has played much better the last few weeks knocking off some great teams in the 49ers and Cowboys.
Pick: Cardinals
Baltimore @ San Diego
The Ravens get Ray lewis back this week and Suggs has been playing at an MVP level the last month. The Chargers always play better late in the season, but their offensive line is in for a tough day.
Pick: Ravens
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
Ben Roethlisberger is a true warrior and I can't imagine he misses this game. If he's out I might revise the pick but if he's in, I'll take the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers
Thursday, December 15, 2011
The Evolution of the Tight End
Teams used to cover tight-ends with linebackers. They would use their size and strength to stymie the tight-ends at the line of scrimmage. Once the ‘chuck’ rule was enforced, linebackers couldn’t get away with such tactics anymore. They were exposed in coverage as they lacked the athleticism to stay with the more gifted tight-ends. The most prolific offences in the NFL right now feature tight-ends. The Packers are the only team with 5 of them on the active roster and Jermichael Finley is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the league. The Patriots drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez early in the 2010 draft who have become the focal point of Belichick’s offensive system. The Saints Jimmy Graham is leading all tight-ends in catches and he played more basketball than football in university.
The question defenses must ask is - how do we stop them? When Rob Gronkowski comes on to the football field, who do you put out there to cover him? The vast majority of linebackers are not athletic enough to stay with him and even if they are, his wingspan and height make it almost impossible to cover him on jump balls. Safeties have the speed but definitely not the size. Gronk, Finley and Graham are the new generation whose path was carved out by guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, former basketball players who, given a clean release from the line of scrimmage, could use rebounding technique and body position to ‘box-out’ smaller defenders. Even now NFL rules continue to change to protect receivers. Flags for hits on ‘defenseless receivers’ are only making it easier for offensive passing systems as receivers no longer fear catching balls in traffic.
The rule changes in the passing game have made these guys almost impossible to stop. Fear not, I have a solution.
Offensive scouts now spend a great deal of time and effort evaluating college basketball stars in hopes they find the next Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates. Since apparently no one can guard these guys on the field, maybe defensive coaches should head to the basketball gym as well. Who better to cover Jimmy Graham than say, Jimmy Graham? The obvious issue is that tall guys have difficulty tackling, though tackling itself has become a lost art. Even if he isn’t a great tackler, having a ‘coverage specialist’ to play on 3rd downs and certain situations could be the key to winning games.
It would be an experiment for sure, but as the Packers, Patriots and Saints have proved, in the constantly changing NFL it’s better to be ahead of the curve than left behind.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Week 14 Pick'em
Season Record 129-63 (#1 out of 8 ESPN Analysts)
Houston @ Cincinnati
I’ve always believed Wade Phillips was a better coordinator than head coach. His Texans are allowing the lowest average yardage per game in the NFL. People will doubt TJ Yates, but in a game that will come down to who runs the ball better, I like the Texans run game more.
Pick: Texans
Minnesota @ Detroit
The Lions are in the thick of the wildcard race and should blow past the depleted Vikings. Christian Ponder may be out and AP will not be 100% if he suits up. If Tebow can light up the Vikes secondary, I imagine Stafford and Megatron can as well.
Pick: Lions
New Orleans @ Tennessee
New Orleans has looked unstoppable lately; however they face a team that matches up very well against them. The field in Tennessee is grass and the Titans can create pressure with their front four. The Saints have a let down game.
Pick: Titans
Philadelphia @ Miami
I have no idea what to say about this game. On paper, the Eagles are the best team in the league and have been awful. The Dolphins went from being the worst team in the league to winners of 4 straight. The Eagles know it’s over but Mike Vick has something to prove in his first game back.
Pick: Eagles
Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Kyle Orton era lasted less than a quarter and the Chiefs turn back to Tyler Palko. The Jets are still in the hunt and typically start to play better as we get into December.
Pick: Jets
New England @ Washington
Due to a weak schedule, the Patriots have a realistic chance at seizing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This might be their toughest test.
Pick: Patriots
Atlanta @ Carolina
In my opinion, the Panthers have already transitioned into a playoff team. What I mean is, although they are too far behind, they are competing like a playoff team. This will be a great one as the Falcons need the win badly and the Panthers are one of the most dangerous teams in the league to face.
Pick: Falcons
Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
I’m not even sure if people in Florida care about this one.
Pick: Bucs
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
The Colts have already turned their attention away from this season and towards the Luck/Manning mess that is sure to come.
Pick: Ravens
Chicago @ Denver
The Bears defense must be livid after playing very well against the Chiefs and losing 10-3 (all because of a hail mary touchdown). This week they know that the Tebow Train is rolling in and the crowd will be going bonkers. Who will be able to generate offence on the Bears?
Pick: Broncos
San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers do not take games off. The Cardinals are the epitome of sporadic.
Pick: 49ers
Oakland @ Green Bay
Clearly the Giants were insane to leave 55 seconds on the clock last week. Although the Packers looked like they could’ve done it in 15 seconds if necessary.
Pick: Packers
Buffalo @ San Diego
The Chargers always start to play better when they are flirting with mathematical elimination. Read my article on the Bills if you want the good, because this week’s west coast road trip is bad.
Pick: Chargers
New York Giants @ Dallas
No love lost in this one. The Giants roll into big D for a pivotal game against the Cowboys. The Giants come away with a shocker.
Pick: Giants
St. Louis @ Seattle
A rematch of last year’s win-and-your-in game will not have the same entertainment value. Both teams have been atrocious but Seattle is a tough place to play and they’ll be revved up on Monday night. Marshawn has solidified himself as a feature ball carrier.
Pick: Seahawks
Houston @ Cincinnati
I’ve always believed Wade Phillips was a better coordinator than head coach. His Texans are allowing the lowest average yardage per game in the NFL. People will doubt TJ Yates, but in a game that will come down to who runs the ball better, I like the Texans run game more.
Pick: Texans
Minnesota @ Detroit
The Lions are in the thick of the wildcard race and should blow past the depleted Vikings. Christian Ponder may be out and AP will not be 100% if he suits up. If Tebow can light up the Vikes secondary, I imagine Stafford and Megatron can as well.
Pick: Lions
New Orleans @ Tennessee
New Orleans has looked unstoppable lately; however they face a team that matches up very well against them. The field in Tennessee is grass and the Titans can create pressure with their front four. The Saints have a let down game.
Pick: Titans
Philadelphia @ Miami
I have no idea what to say about this game. On paper, the Eagles are the best team in the league and have been awful. The Dolphins went from being the worst team in the league to winners of 4 straight. The Eagles know it’s over but Mike Vick has something to prove in his first game back.
Pick: Eagles
Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Kyle Orton era lasted less than a quarter and the Chiefs turn back to Tyler Palko. The Jets are still in the hunt and typically start to play better as we get into December.
Pick: Jets
New England @ Washington
Due to a weak schedule, the Patriots have a realistic chance at seizing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This might be their toughest test.
Pick: Patriots
Atlanta @ Carolina
In my opinion, the Panthers have already transitioned into a playoff team. What I mean is, although they are too far behind, they are competing like a playoff team. This will be a great one as the Falcons need the win badly and the Panthers are one of the most dangerous teams in the league to face.
Pick: Falcons
Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
I’m not even sure if people in Florida care about this one.
Pick: Bucs
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
The Colts have already turned their attention away from this season and towards the Luck/Manning mess that is sure to come.
Pick: Ravens
Chicago @ Denver
The Bears defense must be livid after playing very well against the Chiefs and losing 10-3 (all because of a hail mary touchdown). This week they know that the Tebow Train is rolling in and the crowd will be going bonkers. Who will be able to generate offence on the Bears?
Pick: Broncos
San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers do not take games off. The Cardinals are the epitome of sporadic.
Pick: 49ers
Oakland @ Green Bay
Clearly the Giants were insane to leave 55 seconds on the clock last week. Although the Packers looked like they could’ve done it in 15 seconds if necessary.
Pick: Packers
Buffalo @ San Diego
The Chargers always start to play better when they are flirting with mathematical elimination. Read my article on the Bills if you want the good, because this week’s west coast road trip is bad.
Pick: Chargers
New York Giants @ Dallas
No love lost in this one. The Giants roll into big D for a pivotal game against the Cowboys. The Giants come away with a shocker.
Pick: Giants
St. Louis @ Seattle
A rematch of last year’s win-and-your-in game will not have the same entertainment value. Both teams have been atrocious but Seattle is a tough place to play and they’ll be revved up on Monday night. Marshawn has solidified himself as a feature ball carrier.
Pick: Seahawks
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Reasons for Optimism in Buffalo...No, Really...
For all the good that Ralph Wilson has done for the game of football, he must have some skeletons in the closet. How else can you explain the constant pain the football gods inflict on the Bills and their fans. Take this year for example. No one, not even Bills fans thought they had a chance at making the playoffs. Then out of nowhere they start the season 4-1 and beat the Patriots for the first time since smart phones were invented. Just as Bills fans allowed optimism to creep back into their psyche, the team collapsed and is now on pace for another losing season. Losing 4 straight Super Bowls is starting to seem like the good ole days.
Believe it or not Bills fans, amidst all this heartache is some good news. For the first time in years the team is actually not in terrible shape and has a core of talented players to build on.
The Corner Stones
WR Stevie Johnson – One of the most impressive things I’ve seen all season was Stevie Johnson fly right over Revis Island. Revis has established himself as a true shutdown corner and has blanketed all of the top receivers in the NFL. Johnson was the first guy to consistently beat Revis in man-to-man coverage. His ability to stem his routes at the line of scrimmage made the Jets superstar look pedestrian. He has the talent of a true number one receiver, but needs to mature to fully reach his potential.
DT Marcell Dareus – I was watching the Bills - Jets game a couple weeks ago and was shocked to hear the announcer say that Dareus really hasn’t lived up to expectations this year. I guess that’s proof that some guys only look at stats to get their ‘knowledge’. Dareus has been everything the Bills expected when they drafted him 3rd overall. He is stout against the run and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage. He could become a Pro Bowler player as soon as next season.
DT Kyle Williams – Another guy who flies under the radar, Williams is one of the best defensive linemen in the league. His 2011 campaign was cut short due to injury but his return in 2012 will benefit Dareus as few players work harder than Williams.
The Supporting Cast
C Eric Wood / G Andy Levitre – The interior offensive line is young and talented. Wood’s season got cut short, but these two should anchor the Bills O-line for years to come. Demetrius Bell has been impressive at LT as well this year and adding one quality player to the mix could make this a top AFC unit.
FS Jairus Byrd – Byrd is a big safety who always seems to be around the ball. After a breakout rookie season, he had a down year in 2010. Byrd has shown flashes this season of the player he could become. As the Bills front seven improves, Byrd will have more opportunities to make plays.
While the aforementioned players should all be considered ‘integral’ to the Bills future, there are three guys that are hard to place.
Wild Cards
RB CJ Spiller - Drafted in the top ten, Spiller has struggled to seize the #1 RB job. A big reason for that is Fred Jackson’s emergence as one of the most complete backs in the league. In 2012, Jackson will be coming off a season ending injury and is already on the wrong side of 30. The verdict on Spiller will be complete after 2012 and either he fizzles out or becomes the dynamic playmaker he was billed as.
CB Aaron Williams – The 2011 2nd round pick has been plagued with injuries in his rookie campaign. His development will be integral to the Bills pass defense and could give Buffalo two solid defensive backs in the starting lineup.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - He is one of the brightest quarterbacks both on and off the field. Fitz’s pre-snap adjustments and ability to read coverage has made him successful despite limited arm strength and stature. He’s a guy I’ll always cheer for, and is good enough to win a Super Bowl for a talented team. Unfortunately, I just don’t think he can be great enough to put a team on his back. If the Bills believe they can build a great team around him, then maybe he’s the guy to get them to the big game. If not, they’ll need to draft a quarterback very soon and let him learn from Fitzpatrick whom by all accounts would seem to be a great mentor.
The Bills need to act now. For the first time since the 1900s, they have a core group of talented young players. They’ll have a relatively high draft pick this year and should pick the best player available. If they can get two legitimate starters from this year’s class, they should begin to morph into a contender. Be patient Bills fans. The reign of Brady will soon come to an end and with smart personnel moves the Bills will be in a position to seize the throne.
Believe it or not Bills fans, amidst all this heartache is some good news. For the first time in years the team is actually not in terrible shape and has a core of talented players to build on.
The Corner Stones
WR Stevie Johnson – One of the most impressive things I’ve seen all season was Stevie Johnson fly right over Revis Island. Revis has established himself as a true shutdown corner and has blanketed all of the top receivers in the NFL. Johnson was the first guy to consistently beat Revis in man-to-man coverage. His ability to stem his routes at the line of scrimmage made the Jets superstar look pedestrian. He has the talent of a true number one receiver, but needs to mature to fully reach his potential.
DT Marcell Dareus – I was watching the Bills - Jets game a couple weeks ago and was shocked to hear the announcer say that Dareus really hasn’t lived up to expectations this year. I guess that’s proof that some guys only look at stats to get their ‘knowledge’. Dareus has been everything the Bills expected when they drafted him 3rd overall. He is stout against the run and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage. He could become a Pro Bowler player as soon as next season.
DT Kyle Williams – Another guy who flies under the radar, Williams is one of the best defensive linemen in the league. His 2011 campaign was cut short due to injury but his return in 2012 will benefit Dareus as few players work harder than Williams.
The Supporting Cast
C Eric Wood / G Andy Levitre – The interior offensive line is young and talented. Wood’s season got cut short, but these two should anchor the Bills O-line for years to come. Demetrius Bell has been impressive at LT as well this year and adding one quality player to the mix could make this a top AFC unit.
FS Jairus Byrd – Byrd is a big safety who always seems to be around the ball. After a breakout rookie season, he had a down year in 2010. Byrd has shown flashes this season of the player he could become. As the Bills front seven improves, Byrd will have more opportunities to make plays.
While the aforementioned players should all be considered ‘integral’ to the Bills future, there are three guys that are hard to place.
Wild Cards
RB CJ Spiller - Drafted in the top ten, Spiller has struggled to seize the #1 RB job. A big reason for that is Fred Jackson’s emergence as one of the most complete backs in the league. In 2012, Jackson will be coming off a season ending injury and is already on the wrong side of 30. The verdict on Spiller will be complete after 2012 and either he fizzles out or becomes the dynamic playmaker he was billed as.
CB Aaron Williams – The 2011 2nd round pick has been plagued with injuries in his rookie campaign. His development will be integral to the Bills pass defense and could give Buffalo two solid defensive backs in the starting lineup.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - He is one of the brightest quarterbacks both on and off the field. Fitz’s pre-snap adjustments and ability to read coverage has made him successful despite limited arm strength and stature. He’s a guy I’ll always cheer for, and is good enough to win a Super Bowl for a talented team. Unfortunately, I just don’t think he can be great enough to put a team on his back. If the Bills believe they can build a great team around him, then maybe he’s the guy to get them to the big game. If not, they’ll need to draft a quarterback very soon and let him learn from Fitzpatrick whom by all accounts would seem to be a great mentor.
The Bills need to act now. For the first time since the 1900s, they have a core group of talented young players. They’ll have a relatively high draft pick this year and should pick the best player available. If they can get two legitimate starters from this year’s class, they should begin to morph into a contender. Be patient Bills fans. The reign of Brady will soon come to an end and with smart personnel moves the Bills will be in a position to seize the throne.
Friday, December 2, 2011
The Prototypical Player: A Response to Howard Bryant
If you don’t want to take the time to read Howard Bryant’s article (http://espn.go.com/espn/commentary/story/_/id/7303988/ncf-tim-tebow-hype-drowns-buzz-more-talented-rookies) I’ll summarize it for you.
• The NFL season revolves around Tebow
• The media and his supporters are fueling/creating his legend, but he isn’t a very good quarterback
• They are winning more because of their defense and running game than Tebow and if they had a better QB they wouldn’t need these late game heroics
• After this season, when coaches get more film on him he will taper off into oblivion
• There’s a small chance he enjoys continued success, but it’s minute at best
Some Quotes:
"Tim Tebow is an overblown phenomenon drowning out the buzz for more talented QB's"
"Fans flock to Tebow and his good-guy image, but it has little to do with merit"
You’ve probably heard these arguments from a number of analysts whose livelihood depends on them providing an entertaining read and being correct in their opinions. You can’t blame them for taking the obvious angle. Sports analysts often take the popular opinion. When they reach a fork in the road, they take the beaten path as opposed to the one marked ‘caution’. Their job depends on it.
It doesn’t take a football expert to watch Tebow play and realize that he has a long release; he’s inaccurate and doesn’t fit the mold of what is now perceived as a prototypical NFL quarterback. No one can really argue that. What we should start questioning is how important ‘looking the part’ really is.
There is no doubt that the Denver Broncos as a whole are playing much better football. Their defense has been one of the league’s best in recent weeks and John Fox deserves a lot of credit for that. So does Von Miller, Champ Bailey and the rest of the Denver defenders. Believe it or not, Tebow also deserves credit for this.
If you were to rank NFL players on passing accuracy, Tebow wouldn’t be in the top 30. If you were to rank them on Football IQ or Vision, he would rank near the bottom. However, if you ranked all NFL players on leadership and passion, he would be #1 by a considerable margin.
John Fox says that Tebow is exactly what you look for in a football player, maybe not a quarterback, but as a player, he’s the prototype. In the ultimate team game, is it so shocking that he would have success?
The problem is we’ve created this image of an NFL passer that transcends what football is all about. In order for a quarterback to be successful he has to be at least 6’4, throw the ball 100mph and it helps if he’s athletic. Evidently it doesn’t matter if a guy is an awful leader (Ryan Leaf) or has no passion for the game (JaMarcus Russell).
If you’ve never played football before you cannot fully understand the importance of momentum. All it takes is one play, one penalty, or one hit to turn the tide. I’ve coached teams that are much more talented than their opponents and believe me; the worst feeling is witnessing your opponent gain momentum as they take control of the game. You feel helpless. It seems like no matter what play you call, it doesn’t work.
The Denver Broncos have arguably more positive momentum right now than even the Green Bay Packers. Guys on that team are playing above their skill level. Tim Tebow doesn’t play defense, but if you think his leadership and passion hasn’t impacted their level of play, you clearly didn’t see Bronco rookie safety Rahim Moore run to the middle of the field after they beat the Chargers and do the ‘Tebow’. Maybe it’s because Tebow plays the game like a defensive player. Sure it’s nice to have a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but as a defender it might be kind of inspiring to see the leader of your team out there grinding out yards instead of complaining about late hits and dating super models.
Every now and then a player comes along that has an attribute that has never been seen before. Barry Sanders had unique agility. Peyton Manning’s football intelligence revolutionized the way Quarterbacks play in the NFL. Devin Hester’s speed and vision has made him a once in a generation returner. When it comes to leadership and passion, Tebow is unmatched. Not in this generation, and maybe not ever.
Football is a game for the dramatic. We’re to believe that on any given Sunday, anyone can win. It’s about blood, sweat and tears. It’s about brotherhood and overcoming the odds. The ultimate team sport. Tim Tebow might not personify a prototypical quarterback, but he personifies football. For the Broncos, that seems to be enough.
Don’t question why it’s working, or how long it will last. No one really knows the answer to those questions. Just sit back and enjoy watching a once in a lifetime player do what he does best. Win.
-Jansen-
• The NFL season revolves around Tebow
• The media and his supporters are fueling/creating his legend, but he isn’t a very good quarterback
• They are winning more because of their defense and running game than Tebow and if they had a better QB they wouldn’t need these late game heroics
• After this season, when coaches get more film on him he will taper off into oblivion
• There’s a small chance he enjoys continued success, but it’s minute at best
Some Quotes:
"Tim Tebow is an overblown phenomenon drowning out the buzz for more talented QB's"
"Fans flock to Tebow and his good-guy image, but it has little to do with merit"
You’ve probably heard these arguments from a number of analysts whose livelihood depends on them providing an entertaining read and being correct in their opinions. You can’t blame them for taking the obvious angle. Sports analysts often take the popular opinion. When they reach a fork in the road, they take the beaten path as opposed to the one marked ‘caution’. Their job depends on it.
It doesn’t take a football expert to watch Tebow play and realize that he has a long release; he’s inaccurate and doesn’t fit the mold of what is now perceived as a prototypical NFL quarterback. No one can really argue that. What we should start questioning is how important ‘looking the part’ really is.
There is no doubt that the Denver Broncos as a whole are playing much better football. Their defense has been one of the league’s best in recent weeks and John Fox deserves a lot of credit for that. So does Von Miller, Champ Bailey and the rest of the Denver defenders. Believe it or not, Tebow also deserves credit for this.
If you were to rank NFL players on passing accuracy, Tebow wouldn’t be in the top 30. If you were to rank them on Football IQ or Vision, he would rank near the bottom. However, if you ranked all NFL players on leadership and passion, he would be #1 by a considerable margin.
John Fox says that Tebow is exactly what you look for in a football player, maybe not a quarterback, but as a player, he’s the prototype. In the ultimate team game, is it so shocking that he would have success?
The problem is we’ve created this image of an NFL passer that transcends what football is all about. In order for a quarterback to be successful he has to be at least 6’4, throw the ball 100mph and it helps if he’s athletic. Evidently it doesn’t matter if a guy is an awful leader (Ryan Leaf) or has no passion for the game (JaMarcus Russell).
If you’ve never played football before you cannot fully understand the importance of momentum. All it takes is one play, one penalty, or one hit to turn the tide. I’ve coached teams that are much more talented than their opponents and believe me; the worst feeling is witnessing your opponent gain momentum as they take control of the game. You feel helpless. It seems like no matter what play you call, it doesn’t work.
The Denver Broncos have arguably more positive momentum right now than even the Green Bay Packers. Guys on that team are playing above their skill level. Tim Tebow doesn’t play defense, but if you think his leadership and passion hasn’t impacted their level of play, you clearly didn’t see Bronco rookie safety Rahim Moore run to the middle of the field after they beat the Chargers and do the ‘Tebow’. Maybe it’s because Tebow plays the game like a defensive player. Sure it’s nice to have a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but as a defender it might be kind of inspiring to see the leader of your team out there grinding out yards instead of complaining about late hits and dating super models.
Every now and then a player comes along that has an attribute that has never been seen before. Barry Sanders had unique agility. Peyton Manning’s football intelligence revolutionized the way Quarterbacks play in the NFL. Devin Hester’s speed and vision has made him a once in a generation returner. When it comes to leadership and passion, Tebow is unmatched. Not in this generation, and maybe not ever.
Football is a game for the dramatic. We’re to believe that on any given Sunday, anyone can win. It’s about blood, sweat and tears. It’s about brotherhood and overcoming the odds. The ultimate team sport. Tim Tebow might not personify a prototypical quarterback, but he personifies football. For the Broncos, that seems to be enough.
Don’t question why it’s working, or how long it will last. No one really knows the answer to those questions. Just sit back and enjoy watching a once in a lifetime player do what he does best. Win.
-Jansen-
Week 13 Pick'em
Season Record: 119-57 (#1 out of the 8 ESPN Analysts)
I didn’t get my pick in for the Thursday night game, but for the sake of honesty, I would’ve picked the Eagles and will therefore take a loss instead of a did not pick. Onto this week:
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Last week Stevie Johnson was one of the only receivers to not get stranded on Revis Island. Chris Johnson looked like his old self and the Titans are playing like a team that thinks they can catch the Texans.
Pick: Tennessee
Kansas City @ Chicago
The Chiefs defense played inspired football on Monday night against the Steelers. If the Chiefs couldn’t score more than 9 points at home against the Steelers, I have to think they won’t score more than 10 on the road in Chicago. Chicago’s defense knows it has to carry this team to the playoffs and I expect them to play like it.
Pick: Bears
Oakland @ Miami
Matt Moore has been exceptional since taking over. He doesn’t turn the ball over gets the ball into the hands of the Dolphins’ playmakers. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Palmer will manage this game better than Moore.
Pick: Raiders
Denver @ Minnesota
Tebowmania rolls into Minnesota this week. The Vikings are without Adrian Peterson and do not have a legitimate threat in the passing game outside of Percy Harvin. I can’t continue the trend this week of picking against Tebow.
Pick: Broncos
Indianapolis @ New England
What could’ve been….
Pick: Patriots
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
People don’t realize how much of Dalton’s success is a direct result of AJ Green. I’m a big supporter of both, but Green is one of the most complete receivers in the game already. The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road, should be ok at home.
Pick: Steelers
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
When the Bucs give the ball to Blount, he produces. When they put the ball in the hands of Josh Freeman, he’s buckled this year. Who would’ve thought that going into this one, Carolina has the QB advantage?
Pick: Buccaneers
New York Jets @ Washington
The Jets barely kept their season alive against the Bills last week. Mark Sanchez’s development has been stunted severely by the revolving door of receivers in Jet land. Good thing they face the ‘Skins who have a disastrous QB situation.
Pick: Jets
Atlanta @ Houston
TJ Yates gets the call for the Texans who will definitely be relying on their run game and #1 ranked defense to get them into the playoffs. Matt Ryan is going to do enough to force Yates into making plays and I just don’t see that happening.
Pick: Atlanta
Baltimore @ Cleveland
Although they are inconsistent after big wins, the Ravens have proved that when they want to, they can play with the best in the league. The Browns defense is the strength of this team, but the offence will need 15+ to have a chance against the Ravens – good luck.
Pick: Ravens
Green Bay @ New York Giants
The Giants got it handed to them by the Saints. The Packers offence is playing at a similar level.
Pick: Packers
Dallas @ Arizona
The Cowboys need to pick up a win in order to remain in the thick of the NFC East divisional race. Kolb is set to return, but Rob Ryan should have an answer for him.
Pick: Cowboys
St. Louis @ San Francisco
If there’s one thing you should know about the 49ers this season it’s that they are always ready to play at the start of the game. They have exceeded all expectations on cross country road-trips and give Harbaugh a lot of credit for that. The Rams are dismal and with the number of early round picks they’ve made on offensive linemen, this team can’t protect Bradford.
Pick: 49ers
Detroit @ New Orleans
The Lions will likely be without Ndamukong Suh this week. This is one of those games they really need him. In order to beat New Orleans you need to be able to create pressure with your front four. Without Suh, I can see Brees picking up right where he left off against the Giants.
Pick: Saints
San Diego @ Jacksonville
Underperforming Team & Coach on the hot seat vs. Interim Coach & Rookie QB. I have to take the Chargers because no matter how bad Rivers has played this season he’s better than Gabbert is right now.
Pick: Chargers
I didn’t get my pick in for the Thursday night game, but for the sake of honesty, I would’ve picked the Eagles and will therefore take a loss instead of a did not pick. Onto this week:
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Last week Stevie Johnson was one of the only receivers to not get stranded on Revis Island. Chris Johnson looked like his old self and the Titans are playing like a team that thinks they can catch the Texans.
Pick: Tennessee
Kansas City @ Chicago
The Chiefs defense played inspired football on Monday night against the Steelers. If the Chiefs couldn’t score more than 9 points at home against the Steelers, I have to think they won’t score more than 10 on the road in Chicago. Chicago’s defense knows it has to carry this team to the playoffs and I expect them to play like it.
Pick: Bears
Oakland @ Miami
Matt Moore has been exceptional since taking over. He doesn’t turn the ball over gets the ball into the hands of the Dolphins’ playmakers. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Palmer will manage this game better than Moore.
Pick: Raiders
Denver @ Minnesota
Tebowmania rolls into Minnesota this week. The Vikings are without Adrian Peterson and do not have a legitimate threat in the passing game outside of Percy Harvin. I can’t continue the trend this week of picking against Tebow.
Pick: Broncos
Indianapolis @ New England
What could’ve been….
Pick: Patriots
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
People don’t realize how much of Dalton’s success is a direct result of AJ Green. I’m a big supporter of both, but Green is one of the most complete receivers in the game already. The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road, should be ok at home.
Pick: Steelers
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
When the Bucs give the ball to Blount, he produces. When they put the ball in the hands of Josh Freeman, he’s buckled this year. Who would’ve thought that going into this one, Carolina has the QB advantage?
Pick: Buccaneers
New York Jets @ Washington
The Jets barely kept their season alive against the Bills last week. Mark Sanchez’s development has been stunted severely by the revolving door of receivers in Jet land. Good thing they face the ‘Skins who have a disastrous QB situation.
Pick: Jets
Atlanta @ Houston
TJ Yates gets the call for the Texans who will definitely be relying on their run game and #1 ranked defense to get them into the playoffs. Matt Ryan is going to do enough to force Yates into making plays and I just don’t see that happening.
Pick: Atlanta
Baltimore @ Cleveland
Although they are inconsistent after big wins, the Ravens have proved that when they want to, they can play with the best in the league. The Browns defense is the strength of this team, but the offence will need 15+ to have a chance against the Ravens – good luck.
Pick: Ravens
Green Bay @ New York Giants
The Giants got it handed to them by the Saints. The Packers offence is playing at a similar level.
Pick: Packers
Dallas @ Arizona
The Cowboys need to pick up a win in order to remain in the thick of the NFC East divisional race. Kolb is set to return, but Rob Ryan should have an answer for him.
Pick: Cowboys
St. Louis @ San Francisco
If there’s one thing you should know about the 49ers this season it’s that they are always ready to play at the start of the game. They have exceeded all expectations on cross country road-trips and give Harbaugh a lot of credit for that. The Rams are dismal and with the number of early round picks they’ve made on offensive linemen, this team can’t protect Bradford.
Pick: 49ers
Detroit @ New Orleans
The Lions will likely be without Ndamukong Suh this week. This is one of those games they really need him. In order to beat New Orleans you need to be able to create pressure with your front four. Without Suh, I can see Brees picking up right where he left off against the Giants.
Pick: Saints
San Diego @ Jacksonville
Underperforming Team & Coach on the hot seat vs. Interim Coach & Rookie QB. I have to take the Chargers because no matter how bad Rivers has played this season he’s better than Gabbert is right now.
Pick: Chargers
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