Without a doubt, Super Bowl XLVI is going to be the most hyped sporting events in recent memory. The game features a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl and includes two of the largest markets in the world of Sports. I’ve already seen numerous headlines such as “Brady’s Revenge”, “The Rematch” and my personal favourite, “Brady and Eliath Round 2”.
Although both will deny it vehemently using robotic phrases such as “We’re only concerned with winning this game”, “I don't pay attention to what people are saying” and “It’s an honour even to be mentioned with those guys”, their quarterback legacies are on the line.
For Eli Manning, it’s a stepping stone. With at least five years left in his prime, Eli has the opportunity to get his 2nd Super Bowl ring. For context, consider that 19 different Quarterbacks have won a single Super Bowl. Only 10 have won it multiple times. He has proven this year that he is an elite quarterback and with a win, would solidify himself as one of the top 25 passers in the history of the game. People will claim he should be considered better than Peyton (which is pure insanity if you ask me), others will say even with his ring(s) he isn’t in the top 25. The critical thing with Eli is that he has a few prime years left in him. With the Giants talent, it’s not unreasonable to think that he could wind up with 3 rings (only four QBs have that many), in which case we would need to rethink the argument.
On the other side of the field, Tom Brady has the chance to establish himself as the greatest of all time. A win would put him in a three-way tie for most rings ever with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. Bradshaw has the rings but rarely cracks the top 5 list of greats as he won with the aid of an outstanding supporting cast and defense. That leaves us with Montana and Brady. Tom will have the more gaudy numbers having played in the pass heavy era. Montana will be remembered as mister clutch, having never lost the big game (something Brady has already done). A loss for Brady would essentially eliminate him from the discussion and leave Montana alone at the top. It would prove that Brady is vulnerable (2 Super Bowl losses to the same team), and draw attention to his lack of playoff success in the latter half of his career.
Regardless of where you land on the above arguments, one thing is certain: this Super Bowl has everyone talking about who the greatest QBs of all time are and how we go about quantifying and substantiating that group. In my opinion, rings matter, but only so much. They matter enough to push Tom Brady ahead of Peyton Manning, but no one is going to sit there and say that Trent Dilfer was better than Dan Marino for getting a ring. The best way to come up with this list is put yourself in the following hypothetical scenario:
- You are the GM of an NFL Franchise
- Every player in the league is a free agent (no one is on your roster)
- You have the first pick of free agents and it must be a quarterback
- Every player of all time is 25 years old and in perfect health
- Contracts don’t matter
- Whoever you decide to pick will play in their respective era. (If you pick Brady it will be the 2000’s. If you pick Bart Starr it will be the 1960’s. The offensive systems of that time will be prominent.
With that in mind, here's the order the guys come off the board:
1. Joe Montana
Until Brady wins his 4th, Joe’s still the king of the mountain. His record four Super Bowl Championships all came as a direct result of his superior play. Critics will say that he had Jerry Rice and Bill Walsh at the helm, but it was still on Joe to execute and make the necessary plays to win games. Something he did on such a consistent basis that it looked easy.
2. Tom Brady
I’ll say it right off the bat – If Brady wins the Super Bowl, he jumps to #1 on my list. Brady has had talented targets but no one like Rice (voted #1 NFL Player of all time). In today’s NFL, he is the prototypical quarterback. A guy who can make all the calls at the line, make every throw and is at his best with the game on the line. Love him or hate him, appreciate the fact that we are watching one of, if not the greatest of all time.
3. Peyton Manning
I’m sure people will disagree with this one, but based on the criteria above, it’s an easy decision. Manning hasn’t won the rings, but his legacy only grew this season with how awful the Colts did without him. Remember that the Patriots won 11 games without Tom Brady a few years ago. I’ll take Peyton third overall and build a better team around him. His inability to consistently win the big games drops him below Brady, but Manning changed the quarterback position forever.
4. Johnny Unitas
Johnny U was the most dominant passer of his era. He only won one Super Bowl, but he also grabbed two NFL Championships prior to the Super Bowl era. Johnny’s record of 47 straight games with a touchdown pass is still intact, which is remarkable when you consider the differences in offensive trends between then and now, but his most important quality was his leadership. When it comes to leadership, Johnny is tops on this list. In college he played both ways (usually leading his team in tackles), and it was this ‘win-at-all-cost’ mentality that fans and teammates loved.
5. John Elway
One thing that a lot of people don’t remember about John is that he was a tremendous athlete. Elway could make plays with his feet when necessary, but usually preferred to use his rocket arm as the primary weapon. John didn’t win a Super Bowl until late in his career, but cemented his legacy by winning 2 straight. Clutch? You bet. Elway orchestrated what is simply known as “the drive”, to beat the Browns in a classic AFC Championship game. In a two-minute drill, he is at his best. He took a much maligned franchise in Denver and turned them into a perennial contender.
6. Brett Favre
#4 is my boy. He’s been my favourite player since I was young and is mainly responsible for turning me into a football fan. He leads the league in all statistical passing categories (including interceptions), has won a Super Bowl and 3 MVP awards. Favre is the consummate gunslinger. Having a knack for the theatrical, Favre would make miraculous plays out of nothing and never shied away from the long ball. People look to his 2 critical interceptions in NFC Championship games and somehow believe that he ‘always blew it’. Favre had his share of mistakes, but the good outweighed the bad by a mile. He played at a high level for nearly two decades registering his best statistical season at the age of 40. Brett's toughness is unmatched and he will go down as one of the most entertaining players in the history of sports.
7. Bart Starr
The MVP of the inaugural Super Bowl couldn’t have been awarded to a more deserving player. At the time of his retirement, Starr had led the Packers to five NFL championships (2 Super Bowls), was the MVP of both Super Bowls he played in and was a career 9-1 in postseason games. Starr also had the highest completion % in NFL history and is currently ranked 2nd all time for playoff passer rating. Starr was unquestionably the greatest QB of his era and was at his best when it mattered most.
8. Dan Marino
Rings don’t mean everything. Despite not winning the big game, Marino led the Dolphins to 10 playoff appearances in 17 years. Unless you were a Dolphin fan back in those days, you’d be hard pressed to name a star receiving option on the Fins at any point in his career. People that knock Marino for not winning typically haven’t seen him throw the ball. Watching him throw is a thing of beauty. The quickest release combined with pinpoint accuracy and an incredibly strong arm provided Marino with what I believe to be the best arm in the history of the NFL. His resume is flawed because he never won a championship but football is the ultimate team sport and you can’t win on your own. Marino is too good to be any lower – rings or no rings.
9. Troy Aikman
Aikman won three world championships in Dallas and will forever have a special place with Cowboys fans. Yes he did have Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, but Aikman made it all work. Smith’s success was fueled by the fact that opposing defenses had to respect the pass when playing Dallas. Aikman, Irvin and Smith were nicknamed the ‘triplets’ – a fitting nickname as they all were equally valuable to each other’s success. Troy is one of the worst colour commentators ever, but he is one of the best quarterbacks ever.
10. Terry Bradshaw
Ok, so Bradshaw is a lot different than most of the guys on this list. He didn’t have the greatest arm, and to be honest, the Steelers of the 1970s were so good that didn’t have to do too much. However, when it comes down to it, there’s only one stat used to gauge quarterbacks – wins. I would pick everyone ahead of Bradshaw on this list because I believe they would get me more wins than he would, but I honestly believe that the guys after him wouldn’t produce as many. He was a tremendous leader and a powerful football player. He called all of his own plays (something often overlooked) and was good enough at it to lead the Steelers to 4 Super Bowl championships. As the late, great Al Davis used to say, “Just win baby”.
Just missed the cut: Steve Young, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach
Monday, January 30, 2012
Friday, January 20, 2012
Conference Championship Picks
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
The top two seeds square off at Gillette Stadium for a trip to the Super Bowl. The weather is supposed to be great considering it's January in the North East. All signs point to a classic.
When the Patriots have the ball
Tom Brady looks like a man on a mission. He is in the latter part of his Hall of Fame career and in reality, this could be his last trip to the big game. Brady's play last week would imply two things: 1) despite his age he still looks to be every bit in his prime, and 2) he knows he is on the wrong side of 35 and wants to take advantage of his remaining opportunities. The big question is how will the Ravens cover the Patriots receivers. Rob Gronkowski has made it very clear that he cannot be covered by one man. If the Ravens plan on stopping him, they will need to jam him with a linebacker and provide safety help. This could open up space for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (both very dangerous threats in their own right). The Steelers showed that if you can jam the Patriots receivers and get pressure, you can slow the offensive juggernaut. I expect the Ravens to try a similar strategy. Ed Reed will play centre field, the Ravens will rush four and hope that Suggs and company can get to Brady before Gronk, Wes, Hernandez or Branch can get open. If that's Baltimore's plan, expect to see lots of RB Dany Woodhead as Ray Lewis will be forced to play man coverage on the backs. For the Ravens to be succesful, they will need to attack the ballcarrier and be aggresive. If they sit back, Brady will pick them apart.
When the Ravens have the ball
Ray Rice will get a lot of touches early as he was a big reason the Ravens beat the Patriots last time they met in the playoffs. The difference this time around is Brady has an abundance of weapons on offense. If the Ravens are going to win this one, it will come down to Joe Flacco's ability to make plays in the passing game. He has an arsenal of weapons, a fabulous offensive line and is facing one of the lowest ranked defenses in the NFL. Forget the matchups. This is the game where the world finds out if Joe Flacco is for real.
Pick: Patriots and lay the points (-7)
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
It's supposed to be cold and rainy with a side of mud. Sounds like some home cooking for the 49ers.
When the Giants have the ball
Good luck trying to run against the 49ers. The Giants can't completely abandon the run, but Eli will have to make the plays to put up points. There's no doubt he can do that, but the 49ers are a different beast. They are the most physical team I've seen in awhile and will cause all sorts of problems for the Giants. The Smiths (Aldon and Justin) will need to create pressure on Manning (something they can do very well). I get the impression that the Giants believe they are already destined for a Super Bowl rematch, that doesn't bode well for this week.
When the 49ers have the ball
Alex Smith was exceptional last week in the final minutes, but don't expect him to do too much this weekend. Mainly because that isn't what got the 49ers this far. They will run the ball and utilize play action. If the situation calls for it, Alex Smith can get more aggresive, but I think the Niners will have success running the ball. The Giants Dline is built to rush the passer. They beat the Falcons (who abandoned the run too early), and then the Packers (who barely run at all). The Niners Oline will want to send a message early that they are not a 'finnesse' group.
Pick: 49ers (-2.5)
The top two seeds square off at Gillette Stadium for a trip to the Super Bowl. The weather is supposed to be great considering it's January in the North East. All signs point to a classic.
When the Patriots have the ball
Tom Brady looks like a man on a mission. He is in the latter part of his Hall of Fame career and in reality, this could be his last trip to the big game. Brady's play last week would imply two things: 1) despite his age he still looks to be every bit in his prime, and 2) he knows he is on the wrong side of 35 and wants to take advantage of his remaining opportunities. The big question is how will the Ravens cover the Patriots receivers. Rob Gronkowski has made it very clear that he cannot be covered by one man. If the Ravens plan on stopping him, they will need to jam him with a linebacker and provide safety help. This could open up space for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (both very dangerous threats in their own right). The Steelers showed that if you can jam the Patriots receivers and get pressure, you can slow the offensive juggernaut. I expect the Ravens to try a similar strategy. Ed Reed will play centre field, the Ravens will rush four and hope that Suggs and company can get to Brady before Gronk, Wes, Hernandez or Branch can get open. If that's Baltimore's plan, expect to see lots of RB Dany Woodhead as Ray Lewis will be forced to play man coverage on the backs. For the Ravens to be succesful, they will need to attack the ballcarrier and be aggresive. If they sit back, Brady will pick them apart.
When the Ravens have the ball
Ray Rice will get a lot of touches early as he was a big reason the Ravens beat the Patriots last time they met in the playoffs. The difference this time around is Brady has an abundance of weapons on offense. If the Ravens are going to win this one, it will come down to Joe Flacco's ability to make plays in the passing game. He has an arsenal of weapons, a fabulous offensive line and is facing one of the lowest ranked defenses in the NFL. Forget the matchups. This is the game where the world finds out if Joe Flacco is for real.
Pick: Patriots and lay the points (-7)
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
It's supposed to be cold and rainy with a side of mud. Sounds like some home cooking for the 49ers.
When the Giants have the ball
Good luck trying to run against the 49ers. The Giants can't completely abandon the run, but Eli will have to make the plays to put up points. There's no doubt he can do that, but the 49ers are a different beast. They are the most physical team I've seen in awhile and will cause all sorts of problems for the Giants. The Smiths (Aldon and Justin) will need to create pressure on Manning (something they can do very well). I get the impression that the Giants believe they are already destined for a Super Bowl rematch, that doesn't bode well for this week.
When the 49ers have the ball
Alex Smith was exceptional last week in the final minutes, but don't expect him to do too much this weekend. Mainly because that isn't what got the 49ers this far. They will run the ball and utilize play action. If the situation calls for it, Alex Smith can get more aggresive, but I think the Niners will have success running the ball. The Giants Dline is built to rush the passer. They beat the Falcons (who abandoned the run too early), and then the Packers (who barely run at all). The Niners Oline will want to send a message early that they are not a 'finnesse' group.
Pick: 49ers (-2.5)
Monday, January 16, 2012
Rest In Peace
What a surprise! This team crept into the playoffs on the final week of the season, won a playoff game, upset the #1 seed in the divisional round and will now go on the road to play in the NFC Championship game. No, I’m not talking about the 2011 New York Giants, I’m talking about the 2010 Green Bay Packers.
Every season we are reminded of how important momentum is to the game of football. As I’ve mentioned before, I believe it to be the single most important aspect of a game. We’ve seen some great examples of its effect this year. Tim Tebow’s heroics captivating the Denver Broncos, the New York Giants riding a wave of confidence into the playoffs and now into the conference championship and even the Indianapolis Colts (feeling how the other side of things feels) losing games because of a defeatist attitude that crept into their locker room. Last year, the Packers found out first hand how much of an ally momentum can be. Which is why it’s somewhat surprising that they chose to discard it just in time for the playoffs this season.
After losing the first game all season to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers came out the following week and got right back on track against the Bears. Looming large was the paramount decision that faces every team that is lucky enough to secure the top seed before week 17. Do they rest their starters? The Packers decided to sit Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings for the season finale against the Lions. Matt Flynn got the start and passed for 480 yards and 6TD’s (both Packer records) as the Packers offensive juggernaut seemed fine under his leadership. Matthews, Jennings and Woodson all had nagging injuries but Rodgers was in perfect health. The obvious benefit was to have those key contributors at 100% health for the first round of the playoffs. The downside is that Rodgers would be without game action for 22 days – by far the longest stretch since August.
For Packers fans, yesterday’s game couldn’t have been more frustrating to watch. After watching Rodgers play pitch and catch all season, it was painful to see the amount of miscues, dropped passes and inaccurate throws. Early in the game Jennings was wide open for a touchdown – he broke to the post, Rodgers threw to the corner – opportunity missed. On a critical third down Jermichael Finley was open for a first down – Rodgers led him about a foot too far – opportunity missed. These two plays were simply a microcosm for how the game went for the Packers.
It wasn’t just the offence either. The Giants last drive before halftime was a defensive nightmare. The Packers let Ahmad Bradshaw run from one side of the field to the other without tackling him in bounds. That allowed Manning one chance at a Hail Mary pass. As soon as the ball left his hands you could see that he had Nicks open in the endzone. Two Packer defenders had undercut the routes and were standing, covering no one, at the 10 yard line. There was no excuse for such mental miscues at a critical juncture of the game. Rusty? Perhaps.
The New England Patriots (the Packers of the AFC), had to play their starters the last week of the regular season because home field hadn’t been secured. They’re dismantling of the Broncos Saturday would indicate that they didn’t need that extra week of rest (even though Brady actually had an injury to his non-throwing shoulder).
As I mentioned at the start of the article, it’s surprising that the Packers didn’t have better perspective on the importance of momentum. Last year they were able to ride the hot-hand of Rodgers all the way to a Super Bowl title. This year, it might be the Giants who capitalize on that formula.
The debate to rest players in the final week of the regular season will continue on forever and there are examples that resting guys can have a positive outcome. This year though, the argument for playing your starters got much stronger. There’s no denying Rodgers was off. He didn’t look like the guy who led the Packers to a 15-1 record while posting one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history.
Hindsight is 20/20 and I’m sure if Rodgers had played and gotten hurt, Mike McCarthy would’ve been ostracized from Green Bay. It’s never an easy decision, but as the Packers found out – sometimes it’s much easier to be the scrappy underdog than king of the hill.
-Jansen-
Every season we are reminded of how important momentum is to the game of football. As I’ve mentioned before, I believe it to be the single most important aspect of a game. We’ve seen some great examples of its effect this year. Tim Tebow’s heroics captivating the Denver Broncos, the New York Giants riding a wave of confidence into the playoffs and now into the conference championship and even the Indianapolis Colts (feeling how the other side of things feels) losing games because of a defeatist attitude that crept into their locker room. Last year, the Packers found out first hand how much of an ally momentum can be. Which is why it’s somewhat surprising that they chose to discard it just in time for the playoffs this season.
After losing the first game all season to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers came out the following week and got right back on track against the Bears. Looming large was the paramount decision that faces every team that is lucky enough to secure the top seed before week 17. Do they rest their starters? The Packers decided to sit Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews and Greg Jennings for the season finale against the Lions. Matt Flynn got the start and passed for 480 yards and 6TD’s (both Packer records) as the Packers offensive juggernaut seemed fine under his leadership. Matthews, Jennings and Woodson all had nagging injuries but Rodgers was in perfect health. The obvious benefit was to have those key contributors at 100% health for the first round of the playoffs. The downside is that Rodgers would be without game action for 22 days – by far the longest stretch since August.
For Packers fans, yesterday’s game couldn’t have been more frustrating to watch. After watching Rodgers play pitch and catch all season, it was painful to see the amount of miscues, dropped passes and inaccurate throws. Early in the game Jennings was wide open for a touchdown – he broke to the post, Rodgers threw to the corner – opportunity missed. On a critical third down Jermichael Finley was open for a first down – Rodgers led him about a foot too far – opportunity missed. These two plays were simply a microcosm for how the game went for the Packers.
It wasn’t just the offence either. The Giants last drive before halftime was a defensive nightmare. The Packers let Ahmad Bradshaw run from one side of the field to the other without tackling him in bounds. That allowed Manning one chance at a Hail Mary pass. As soon as the ball left his hands you could see that he had Nicks open in the endzone. Two Packer defenders had undercut the routes and were standing, covering no one, at the 10 yard line. There was no excuse for such mental miscues at a critical juncture of the game. Rusty? Perhaps.
The New England Patriots (the Packers of the AFC), had to play their starters the last week of the regular season because home field hadn’t been secured. They’re dismantling of the Broncos Saturday would indicate that they didn’t need that extra week of rest (even though Brady actually had an injury to his non-throwing shoulder).
As I mentioned at the start of the article, it’s surprising that the Packers didn’t have better perspective on the importance of momentum. Last year they were able to ride the hot-hand of Rodgers all the way to a Super Bowl title. This year, it might be the Giants who capitalize on that formula.
The debate to rest players in the final week of the regular season will continue on forever and there are examples that resting guys can have a positive outcome. This year though, the argument for playing your starters got much stronger. There’s no denying Rodgers was off. He didn’t look like the guy who led the Packers to a 15-1 record while posting one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history.
Hindsight is 20/20 and I’m sure if Rodgers had played and gotten hurt, Mike McCarthy would’ve been ostracized from Green Bay. It’s never an easy decision, but as the Packers found out – sometimes it’s much easier to be the scrappy underdog than king of the hill.
-Jansen-
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Divisional Weekend Pick'em
After starting last week 4-0, finishing 5-3 was a bit of a disappointment. What wasn't disappointing? The OT thriller between the Broncos and the Steelers. Enjoy this weekend - it's the best weekend of the NFL Calendar.
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
It seems like the biggest question facing the New Orleans Saints is whether they can take the show on the road. Playing in the friendly confines of the Super Dome, they have been well , Super. Waiting for them in San Francisco is one of the NFL’s best defenses, and a well-rested one at that. Even if the Saints do require good weather to operate their offensive juggernaut, an outdoor game in San Francisco should certainly ease the indoor-outdoor transition.
The 49ers success this season has been based upon playing tough defense and running the football. If the Saints can score early and get a lead, Niners QB Alex Smith will be pressured into making plays in the passing game. In a shootout between Brees and Smith, Brees wins every time. However, if the 49ers can keep the Saints out of the end zone, then they can let Smith make high percentage throws off play action and wear down the Saints defense that is built more for speed than power.
In reality, the Saints are much better on the road than people give them credit for (16-8 in the last 3 seasons). Alex Smith was good enough to get the 49ers into the playoffs but against New Orleans, he is going to have to make a lot of plays, and I just don’t think he can do enough.
Pick: Saints and to cover the -3.5
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Tebowmania continues this week as the Broncos go on the road to face the top seeded New England Patriots. No one gave Denver a chance against the Steelers last week and they proved that they can beat quality teams playing their style. How sustainable this offence is in the future doesn’t matter. What does matter is that it has proven to be effective in the present and when the chips are down, Tebow has proved that he can make plays.
Don’t believe the hype about how the last time these two teams played the Patriots blew the Broncos out. In the first quarter, the Broncos rushed for 160 yards against the NFL’s #31 ranked defense. Last week, Tebow threw for 316 yards against the Steelers – a much better defense. What plagued the Broncos last time was turnovers. They turned the ball over 3 times in the 2nd quarter which is akin to signing your own death certificate when playing Tom Brady. The keys for Denver are to control the time of possession and have zero turnovers. If they can win the turnover battle, they have a chance to make it close at the end.
When the Patriots are on offence, they have proved almost impossible to slow down, let alone stop. The only time they really showed signs of struggling was early this season against the Steelers. Pittsburgh played press man-to-man coverage and blitzed Brady, which actually was very successful. It’s also what the Jets did last year in the playoffs to Brady and the Pats. Earlier this season when they played, Denver only rushed 3 linemen and dropped everyone into coverage. Bad idea. Brady just sat back and picked their defense apart. Expect Fox to turn loose Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller while playing press man coverage in the secondary. The only way to beat Brady is to get hits on him and not give his receivers time or space to get open.
Pick: Patriots but definitely take the Broncos to cover +13.5
Houston @ Baltimore
This is the most ‘old school’ football game of the week, where the keys will be running the ball and playing suffocating defense. The Ravens are much better when playing at home, especially Joe Flacco, who will be relied upon to win this game.
Houston runs the ball better than anyone in the league. Their zone running game featuring Arian Foster is exceptional and the threat of Andre Johnson in the passing game will force the Ravens to keep safeties deep. Despite the numbers, I believe the Ravens run defense has regressed as of late. Since coming back from injury, Ray Lewis has missed more tackles than I’ve seen him miss his entire career. He will need to be at his very best to stop the Texans run game.
It all comes down to Flacco. He will need to score points early so that pressure is put on the Texans offence – more specifically rookie QB TJ Yates. If he struggles, the Texans can continue to pound the rock on offence and ‘hide’ Yates with play action. If Ray Rice doesn’t get 30+ touches I’ll be shocked. In the end, I think the Texans are physical enough and play good enough defensively to keep it close. Even though I don’t have a ton of faith in Flacco, I have to believe he will make the plays that Yates can’t.
Pick: Ravens but Texans +7.5
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Up until this season it was common for the defending Super Bowl champions to miss the playoffs as part of the ‘Super Bowl Hangover’. Apparently no one told the Packers. They cruised through the regular season with one of the most prolific offenses in recent memory. Their defense gets a bad rap, but part of the reason they give up so many yards is because opposing teams are constantly throwing on them to try and catch up. However, the Giants are as hot as any team in the league right now and should be considered a serious threat to Green Bay.
Eli Manning has been exceptional this season. It was his play that kept the Giants alive when they were inundated with injuries. He’s been the best QB in the fourth quarter which proves that the Giants are dangerous with the game on the line. Their run game has been very strong lately as well and that balance has made the Giants offense very effective. The Packers secondary is strong, but they can’t cover forever. The key when the Giants have the ball will be how much pressure Dom Capers can get on Manning. If they can’t rush the passer, expect a shootout.
The only way you can dream of slowing down Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him without blitzing. The Giants are the perfect team to do that. Their defensive line is the best in the league at rushing the passer which has helped mask a relatively weak secondary. Rodgers will need to use draws and quick step passes early to slow down the rush. The spread is way too high on this game, but the Packers will remind everyone that no flash in the pan, streaky team is going to come into their house and hand them only their 2nd all year.
Pick: Packers but Giants to cover +9.5
Friday, January 6, 2012
Wild Card Weekend Picks
This year's picks finished 169-87, good enough to finish ahead of the 8 ESPN analysts making weekly selections. It was a good year, and I hope that I was able to help some of you win pools or bets at some point throughout the season.
As they say, it's a new season. The playoffs are here and should provide plenty of entertainment. Let's get to the games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Both teams lost going into the playoffs but they did so with different mentalities. The Texans rested a number of guys on defence and limited Andre Johnson considerably on offense. They had nothing to play for and instead took the opportunity to get guys healthy. The Bengals on the otherhand believed they needed a win over the Ravens to secure a wild card spot. They were unable to win and received a fair amount of 'help' to get in.
The Texans defence has been exceptional this year even with the loss of Mario Williams. Jonathan Joseph is playing at a very high level and should be able to handle AJ Green, as long as he gets some safety help. He will no doubt want to shine against his old team that didn't think he was worth the money last offseason. When the Bengals have the ball, the key for them will be to run the ball effectively, if they can do that, it will open up man coverage opportunities that Dalton can take advantage of. The key for the Texans D will be to get pressure and hits on Dalton. Dalton has proven that if he gets time to throw, he can be efficient moving the ball.
Marvin Lewis has the young Bengals defence playing well. The key for them will be stopping the Texans #1 ranked rushing attack. Therein lies the key. The Texans will plan to give Arian Foster 20 carries and Ben Tate an additional 12-15. If they collectively can average over 4 yards a carry, the Texans win. The Bengals defence is in a difficult position. They will likely commit more men to the box to try and stop the Texans run game, but leaving Andre Johnson in man coverage off play action is a recipe for disaster.
Home team gets it done.
Pick: Texans and lay the points (-3)
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
In the last month, 2 things became very obvious when it comes to the Lions. They can score points with the best of them & Steve Young could come out of the booth and throw for 500 yards on their secondary. Lucky for them I don't think New Orleans has a very good quarterback....
The key for the Saints is to attack on both sides of the ball. They need to score early and often to put a lot of pressure on the Lions offence to respond. That in turn will allow the Saints defence to be aggresive and focus on creating turnovers against a one dimensional Lions offence.
The only way I see the Lions winning this game is if Suh and the rest of the defensive line can get pressure on Drew Brees without adding blitz pressure, and if Calvin Johnson imposes his will on the Saints secondary. At this point the Saints D is better than the Lions D and the Saints O is one of the best in NFL history. They're also at home where they are essentially unstoppable.
Pick: Saints but Lions to Cover +11
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
These teams are both extremely dangerous and whoever wins this should be considered a legitamite threat to the 49ers or Packers. The Giants got in the same way they did when they won the Super Bowl - a late season surge led by a ferocious defensive line. Eli Manning has been awesome in the 4th quarter all year and Matt Ryan is on a tear. In the last 7 weeks, Ryan has thrown 15 Touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.
The Giants defensive line is exceptional at rushing the passer. Therefore the Falcons will need to establish their running game with Michael Turner. A 55/45 pass-run split would be ideal for the Falcons. If Matt Ryan is forced to throw the ball 40+ times, he might not make it to the end of the game. Julio Jones and Roddy White should have a field day against the Giants secondary, but only if the Falcons utilize play action to protect Ryan. The Giants have no Linebackers who can cover so Tony Gonzalez figures to be a huge safety net for Ryan if New York's pass rush heats up.
The Giants will have a very similar game plan. Run the ball with Bradshaw/Jacobs, make quick throws out of shotgun and go deep to Nicks and Cruz off play action. The only pass rush threat is John Abraham, and if he gets doubled, Manning could have all day to throw. Bottom line: this should be the best game of the weekend and whoever has the ball last wins.
Pick: Falcons and take the points +3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Is an over/under line of 20 too high for this game? Probably.
The Steelers offence is reeling. Starting RB Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season, Ben Roethlisberger is seriously hobbled by a high ankle sprain and all-star centre Maurkice Pouncey is banged up. Isaac Redman is not going to contribute enough in the run game to win the game, so Big Ben will have to make plays. The Broncos have a good secondary and Von Miller/Elvis Dumervill specialize in getting after the QB. No one can question Roethlisberger's toughness, but this is the playoffs and if any of the Broncos get free, they will take their best shot at the Steeler's pivot. It's not going to be easy for them to score points.
Speaking of difficulty scoring points, let's look at the Broncos offence. Tebow had a miraculous run of 4th quarter comeback wins and then finished the year with 3 straight losses. He looked tentative last week which prompted VP John Elway to say that he needs to 'pull the trigger'. The Steelers defence is going to make things very difficult on Tebow. Instead of optioning the defensive end, it will be the outside linebackers (James Harrison/LaMarr Woodley). If either of those guys get a shot on Tebow, he'll feel it. Troy Polamalu might be put in a spy role on Tebow which would likely limit his production in the run game. It's going to come down to how he throws and how much magic he has left in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Steelers but Broncos to cover the +8.5
Good Luck!
As they say, it's a new season. The playoffs are here and should provide plenty of entertainment. Let's get to the games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Both teams lost going into the playoffs but they did so with different mentalities. The Texans rested a number of guys on defence and limited Andre Johnson considerably on offense. They had nothing to play for and instead took the opportunity to get guys healthy. The Bengals on the otherhand believed they needed a win over the Ravens to secure a wild card spot. They were unable to win and received a fair amount of 'help' to get in.
The Texans defence has been exceptional this year even with the loss of Mario Williams. Jonathan Joseph is playing at a very high level and should be able to handle AJ Green, as long as he gets some safety help. He will no doubt want to shine against his old team that didn't think he was worth the money last offseason. When the Bengals have the ball, the key for them will be to run the ball effectively, if they can do that, it will open up man coverage opportunities that Dalton can take advantage of. The key for the Texans D will be to get pressure and hits on Dalton. Dalton has proven that if he gets time to throw, he can be efficient moving the ball.
Marvin Lewis has the young Bengals defence playing well. The key for them will be stopping the Texans #1 ranked rushing attack. Therein lies the key. The Texans will plan to give Arian Foster 20 carries and Ben Tate an additional 12-15. If they collectively can average over 4 yards a carry, the Texans win. The Bengals defence is in a difficult position. They will likely commit more men to the box to try and stop the Texans run game, but leaving Andre Johnson in man coverage off play action is a recipe for disaster.
Home team gets it done.
Pick: Texans and lay the points (-3)
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
In the last month, 2 things became very obvious when it comes to the Lions. They can score points with the best of them & Steve Young could come out of the booth and throw for 500 yards on their secondary. Lucky for them I don't think New Orleans has a very good quarterback....
The key for the Saints is to attack on both sides of the ball. They need to score early and often to put a lot of pressure on the Lions offence to respond. That in turn will allow the Saints defence to be aggresive and focus on creating turnovers against a one dimensional Lions offence.
The only way I see the Lions winning this game is if Suh and the rest of the defensive line can get pressure on Drew Brees without adding blitz pressure, and if Calvin Johnson imposes his will on the Saints secondary. At this point the Saints D is better than the Lions D and the Saints O is one of the best in NFL history. They're also at home where they are essentially unstoppable.
Pick: Saints but Lions to Cover +11
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
These teams are both extremely dangerous and whoever wins this should be considered a legitamite threat to the 49ers or Packers. The Giants got in the same way they did when they won the Super Bowl - a late season surge led by a ferocious defensive line. Eli Manning has been awesome in the 4th quarter all year and Matt Ryan is on a tear. In the last 7 weeks, Ryan has thrown 15 Touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.
The Giants defensive line is exceptional at rushing the passer. Therefore the Falcons will need to establish their running game with Michael Turner. A 55/45 pass-run split would be ideal for the Falcons. If Matt Ryan is forced to throw the ball 40+ times, he might not make it to the end of the game. Julio Jones and Roddy White should have a field day against the Giants secondary, but only if the Falcons utilize play action to protect Ryan. The Giants have no Linebackers who can cover so Tony Gonzalez figures to be a huge safety net for Ryan if New York's pass rush heats up.
The Giants will have a very similar game plan. Run the ball with Bradshaw/Jacobs, make quick throws out of shotgun and go deep to Nicks and Cruz off play action. The only pass rush threat is John Abraham, and if he gets doubled, Manning could have all day to throw. Bottom line: this should be the best game of the weekend and whoever has the ball last wins.
Pick: Falcons and take the points +3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Is an over/under line of 20 too high for this game? Probably.
The Steelers offence is reeling. Starting RB Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season, Ben Roethlisberger is seriously hobbled by a high ankle sprain and all-star centre Maurkice Pouncey is banged up. Isaac Redman is not going to contribute enough in the run game to win the game, so Big Ben will have to make plays. The Broncos have a good secondary and Von Miller/Elvis Dumervill specialize in getting after the QB. No one can question Roethlisberger's toughness, but this is the playoffs and if any of the Broncos get free, they will take their best shot at the Steeler's pivot. It's not going to be easy for them to score points.
Speaking of difficulty scoring points, let's look at the Broncos offence. Tebow had a miraculous run of 4th quarter comeback wins and then finished the year with 3 straight losses. He looked tentative last week which prompted VP John Elway to say that he needs to 'pull the trigger'. The Steelers defence is going to make things very difficult on Tebow. Instead of optioning the defensive end, it will be the outside linebackers (James Harrison/LaMarr Woodley). If either of those guys get a shot on Tebow, he'll feel it. Troy Polamalu might be put in a spy role on Tebow which would likely limit his production in the run game. It's going to come down to how he throws and how much magic he has left in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Steelers but Broncos to cover the +8.5
Good Luck!
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