The David versus Goliath show that took place at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday was one for the ages. The dreadnought that is the New England Patriots led by dark wizard Bill Belichick came into the game having won the last 15 against the misfit Bills. The bills, a team of castoffs and undrafted free agents, put together a 21-point comeback at home and gave one of the rowdiest crowds in recent memory a real gift. For the first time in more than a decade, optimism is running wild in Upstate New York. Enjoy it Bills fans, it isn’t going to last.
Let me first say that I hope what I am about to write is wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see a team like this excel and get into a playoff race. I just notice a trend that is hard to ignore.
Last season Fitzpatrick took over in week 4 and until Halloween, had a completion percentage of 63.5% with and 11-4 Touchdown to Interception ratio. For the remainder of 2010, he did not have another game where he broke 61%. His TD:INT ratio dropped to 12:11 the rest of the way. The first thing you’ll say is that his opponents probably weren’t as strong. Surprisingly enough, Fitz’s games before Halloween were @NE, NYJ, JAX,@BAL, no easy group to pass against.
Fitzpatrick has excelled because he is a smart passer who can read a defense and quickly know where to put the ball. As a coach, I’ll take a guy who can do that over one with all the physical tools who can’t understand concepts. He is accurate with the ball and has great timing with his receivers. The problem is he has questionable arm strength. It wouldn’t be a big deal, except for the fact that he plays in Buffalo where conditions are amongst the worst in the NFL. I went back and checked his post-halloween numbers in 2010. His best games were in Miami and Cincinnati. I checked the weather in Cincinnati that day and it was unusually warm and sunny with very little wind. There’s a trend forming and for Bills fan’s it isn’t a good one.
Look, I really like Ryan Fitzpatrick and I really hope I’m wrong. The Bills fans deserve a team that is competitive and it is really hard to cheer against a group of guys who had to work to get to where they are. Can you honestly sit there and see the Patriots missing the playoffs? What about the Jets? Both those teams get better as the weather gets worse (especially the Jets. If I were the Bills I would wait to sign Fitzpatrick to a lucrative extension until I see how the back nine goes this year.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Week 3 Pick'em
Season Record 23-9
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
Dalton’s excellent play has been overshadowed by Cam Newton. He is missing a number of his playmakers on offense this week. Am I actually picking the Niners on the road?
Pick: 49ers
New England @ Buffalo
If the Bills win this game I will lose all confidence in my ability to understand the NFL. They have been impressive, but this is Tom Brady were talking about. Not the Chiefs or Raiders. If you don’t love both of these quarterbacks I hate you.
Pick: Patriots
Houston @ New Orleans
This is another one of those games that will go a long way in establishing the Texans as a team to be taken seriously. Unfortunately for them, they enter the Super Dome. Brees and Co. will win a shootout.
Pick: New Orleans
New York G @ Philadelphia
The Giants have been decimated by injuries and Manning looks shaky as a result. The Eagles can’t go 1-2.
Pick: Eagles
Miami @ Cleveland
Hillis out? That limits the ability of the Browns to control the clock. I’m not sure they can keep up with the Dolphins.
Pick: Dolphins
Denver @ Tennessee
Receiver injuries last week resulted in Tebow lining up out wide. That’s not a good thing for the Broncos. Chris Johnson should get back on track this week, if not, when?
Pick: Titans
Detroit @ Minnesota
Last week Adrian Peterson played like a beast, and it still wasn’t enough to get the Vikings the win. I don’t know what else he can do against the Lions.
Pick: Lions
Jacksonville @ Carolina
An early matchup of the two highest drafted QB’s this year. Newton has been exceptional, and you know Gabbert has been itching to show off his skills. Panthers being at home makes the difference but it’ll be close.
Pick: Panthers
Kansas City @ San Diego
This is one of my survival picks this week. Chargers at home should blow the Chiefs away.
Pick: Chargers
New York J @ Oakland
Trap game? Maybe, but I still think the Jets defense is too good to let this one get out of hand. The Raiders showed they can’t close out games last week.
Pick: Jets
Baltimore @ St Louis
On again off again? That logic would suggest the Ravens win this one. I like the Rams young team but without Steven Jackson, I don’t know that Bradford has enough weapons to win it alone.
Pick: Ravens
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
This should be a war, big divisional game early between 1-1 teams. The Falcons had an emotional win last week. I just have a feeling the Bucs are going to be tuned up for this one.
Pick: Buccaneers
Arizona @ Seattle
The Seahawks get Sidney Rice back this week and are always a tough opponent at home. The Cardinals are much improved with Kolb at the helm and Jackson shouldn’t be a starter.
Pick: Cardinals
Green Bay @ Chicago
The Bears are dinged up, but at home will prove to be a tough out. The Bears offensive line is missing Gabe Carimi. If Cutler makes it through the game alive, it’ll be close. I’ll still take Mr. Rodgers.
Pick: Packers
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Well, here we go with the primetime games that suck now with Manning out. Hopefully the Steelers are up by 30 at half so I can get some sleep.
Pick: Steelers
Washington @ Dallas
Dallas is the better football team, but the Redskins hot start is not by accident. Shanahan showing that he is still a great coach.
Pick: Cowboys
Monday, September 19, 2011
The Chicken or the Egg?
The first time I ever beat my father in pickup basketball on my front driveway he uttered one of his (and now my) favourite sayings: Once is lucky, twice is good. As week 1 anomalies shift to week 2 trends, one thing is perfectly clear. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are in a class all by themselves. They all possess strong arms, a cerebral football mind and the accuracy of an Olympic archer (actually, Brees has proven he’s better http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVoqA-LKGb4 ).
They also share another thing in common: great coaching. I was watching the Patriots-Chargers yesterday with a friend of mine. At one point in the second half he turned to me and asked “why is Tom Brady so good?” At first the question seemed like an easy one to answer, but I was surprised at how the conversation unfolded. He has a strong arm, but not the strongest. He is not very athletic. He’s tall, but not big. He definitely has one of the most accurate arms, but I can’t sit here and tell you he’s more accurate the Brees, Rodgers, a healthy Manning, or Philip Rivers. He definitely has the ‘it’ factor and can read defenses better than most, but one thing that has stood out to me lately is the success of coaching schemes.
A perfect example can be found in Philadelphia. When Donovan McNabb was with Andy Reid in Philly, he was a consistent Pro Bowler and a top level quarterback. Since leaving he has looked like a completely different player, nowhere near the top 50% of starters in the league. Some say it’s aging, but he was only 33 last year. Since his departure, Andy Reid turned Kevin Kolb into one of the most sought after QB’s in the league, has gotten way more out of Michael Vick than Atlanta ever did, and if you watched the game last night, Mike Kafka looked like a 10 year veteran in his first NFL action going 7/9 for 72 yards including a blatant drop by Jeremy Maclin on a late 4th down that ended the game.
Drew Brees was a good player in San Diego but not good enough to pass on Philip Rivers as the future. Brees joined with Sean Payton and has since been dominant, putting up ridiculous passing numbers in a spread offence, all while collecting a Super Bowl along the way.
Since they are linked, let’s turn to Rivers. In Norv Turner’s offence, Rivers is masterful. He has torn up the AFC West and has the best passer rating over the last 3 years.
Despite his recent neck injury, Peyton is ‘the sheriff’ and is his own dominant offensive coordinator whereas Aaron Rodgers benefits from Mike McCarthy and the most talented offence in the league.
Need more proof that coaching matters? Take a look at how Kyle Orton has done since Josh McDaniels left. How about Rex Grossman’s renaissance with Mike Shanahan?
I started relating this to my own experience in football. Having played for two different University teams I can tell you that the difference in coaching can be monumental. I played for four years in a pro-style offence that had advanced route concepts and progression reads, and finished playing for a team that had fundamental errors in play design. Although coaches in the NFL all have different philosophies, there is clearly a difference and the quarterbacks we constantly see at the top, are the ones with the best coaches. You could try and make the argument that the QB makes the coach but the Grossman/Orton/Vick examples would trump that.
Which brings me back to Brady. I can’t and won’t take anything away from the player I’ve nicknamed ‘the surgeon’. He is the best quarterback of our era and has a realistic shot at retiring as the unquestioned greatest of all time. Just don’t think he did it all himself. He has had the honour and privilege of playing for the best coach in the history of football. Need proof? Look at Matt Cassel’s numbers with and without Belichick’s influence:
BB Influence: 61% for 6809 yards, 48TDs, 18Int
Without: 55% for 2924 yards, 16TDs, 16Int
The ‘Influence’ tag includes last year as a Chief because he had Charlie Weis (long time disciple of Belichick) as his offensive coordinator. We’ll see how he does this season as Weis has gone to the University of Florida. So far he hasn’t looked good.
It looks as though the move to a more pass happy league is still in full force, and we have already seen records fall this year. Just remember, behind every great quarterback is a great coordinator. Football is often referred to as ‘physical chess’ and while Brady may be the King, Belichick is the best at moving the pawns.
They also share another thing in common: great coaching. I was watching the Patriots-Chargers yesterday with a friend of mine. At one point in the second half he turned to me and asked “why is Tom Brady so good?” At first the question seemed like an easy one to answer, but I was surprised at how the conversation unfolded. He has a strong arm, but not the strongest. He is not very athletic. He’s tall, but not big. He definitely has one of the most accurate arms, but I can’t sit here and tell you he’s more accurate the Brees, Rodgers, a healthy Manning, or Philip Rivers. He definitely has the ‘it’ factor and can read defenses better than most, but one thing that has stood out to me lately is the success of coaching schemes.
A perfect example can be found in Philadelphia. When Donovan McNabb was with Andy Reid in Philly, he was a consistent Pro Bowler and a top level quarterback. Since leaving he has looked like a completely different player, nowhere near the top 50% of starters in the league. Some say it’s aging, but he was only 33 last year. Since his departure, Andy Reid turned Kevin Kolb into one of the most sought after QB’s in the league, has gotten way more out of Michael Vick than Atlanta ever did, and if you watched the game last night, Mike Kafka looked like a 10 year veteran in his first NFL action going 7/9 for 72 yards including a blatant drop by Jeremy Maclin on a late 4th down that ended the game.
Drew Brees was a good player in San Diego but not good enough to pass on Philip Rivers as the future. Brees joined with Sean Payton and has since been dominant, putting up ridiculous passing numbers in a spread offence, all while collecting a Super Bowl along the way.
Since they are linked, let’s turn to Rivers. In Norv Turner’s offence, Rivers is masterful. He has torn up the AFC West and has the best passer rating over the last 3 years.
Despite his recent neck injury, Peyton is ‘the sheriff’ and is his own dominant offensive coordinator whereas Aaron Rodgers benefits from Mike McCarthy and the most talented offence in the league.
Need more proof that coaching matters? Take a look at how Kyle Orton has done since Josh McDaniels left. How about Rex Grossman’s renaissance with Mike Shanahan?
I started relating this to my own experience in football. Having played for two different University teams I can tell you that the difference in coaching can be monumental. I played for four years in a pro-style offence that had advanced route concepts and progression reads, and finished playing for a team that had fundamental errors in play design. Although coaches in the NFL all have different philosophies, there is clearly a difference and the quarterbacks we constantly see at the top, are the ones with the best coaches. You could try and make the argument that the QB makes the coach but the Grossman/Orton/Vick examples would trump that.
Which brings me back to Brady. I can’t and won’t take anything away from the player I’ve nicknamed ‘the surgeon’. He is the best quarterback of our era and has a realistic shot at retiring as the unquestioned greatest of all time. Just don’t think he did it all himself. He has had the honour and privilege of playing for the best coach in the history of football. Need proof? Look at Matt Cassel’s numbers with and without Belichick’s influence:
BB Influence: 61% for 6809 yards, 48TDs, 18Int
Without: 55% for 2924 yards, 16TDs, 16Int
The ‘Influence’ tag includes last year as a Chief because he had Charlie Weis (long time disciple of Belichick) as his offensive coordinator. We’ll see how he does this season as Weis has gone to the University of Florida. So far he hasn’t looked good.
It looks as though the move to a more pass happy league is still in full force, and we have already seen records fall this year. Just remember, behind every great quarterback is a great coordinator. Football is often referred to as ‘physical chess’ and while Brady may be the King, Belichick is the best at moving the pawns.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Week 2 Pick'em
Chicago @ New Orleans
Both of these teams were very impressive in week 1. The Bears, and more specifically Jay Cutler, silenced a lot of critics in the upset blowout over the Falcons. The Saints head home in need of a win.
Pick: Saints
Kansas City @ Detroit
The Chiefs laid a serious egg at home against Buffalo. This team is better than they showed, but losing Eric Berry for the season is critical. The Lions lived up to the hype and the way they stopped the Bucs rushing attack (without Nick Fairley) was impressive.
Pick: Lions
Jacksonville @ New York J
The Jets got an early Christmas gift from Tony Romo last week, but that shouldn’t hide the fact they were outplayed for most of the game. Jack Del Rio is a heck of a football coach and only proved that by beating the Titans with Luke McCown at the helm.
Pick: Jets
Oakland @ Buffalo
The Bills shut me up hard, even though I’ve always been a big Ryan Fitzpatrick supporter. One of these teams will start 2-0, but I’ll take the Bills at home as the Raiders secondary looked shaky against the Broncos.
Pick: Bills
Arizona @ Washington
The Cardinals pulled out a win, but I can’t gauge how improved the Panthers are. The Redskins pulled off the upset and Rex Grossman looks like he is buying what Shanahan is selling.
Pick: Redskins
Baltimore @ Tennessee
The Ravens had the most impressive performance week 1. The Titans got upset and Chris Johnson is behind schedule.
Pick: Ravens
Seattle @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers got smashed by their fiercest rival in week 1. Thankfully the perfect recipe is a home game against the Seahawks.
Pick: Steelers
Packers @ Panthers
Last year’s best team visits last year’s worst team. The Panthers look much improved, but the Packers have shown me nothing to indicate they have given up the thrown.
Pick: Packers
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
Donovan McNabb is on pace to pass for 624 yards….this entire season. His decline has been rapid, and the Bucs have serious aspirations of getting into the playoffs. We get one week closer to the Ponder era.
Pick: Buccaneers
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Just when we thought the Browns had taken a step forward they prove once again that they are in fact……The Browns. The first game was going to be rough without Peyton but the Colts now have to face reality. I think they’ll have an inspired effort at home.
Pick: Colts
Dallas @ San Francisco
The Cowboys were very impressive on the road in a charged New York atmosphere. Ted Ginn Jr saved the Niners last week, it won’t be déjà vu.
Pick: Cowboys
Houston @ Miami
The Texans are riding high but will face a tough Miami team. The secondary got lit up so Schaub should have an opportunity to put up big numbers. Miami is a team the Texans must beat if they want to be taken seriously as a contender.
Pick: Texans
San Diego @ New England
Expect an air show when these two teams square off. Could be an AFC Championship preview and should come down to whoever has the ball last.
Pick: Brady…I mean the Patriots
Cincinnati @ Denver
No one will be watching this game outside of Colorado and Ohio. Even though I’m a huge Tebow supporter, Orton doesn’t deserve this treatment from fans. He is a solid starting quarterback.
Pick: Broncos
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
During the regular season, Matt Ryan is great at home. This should be a thriller and although the Eagles should win the NFC, the Falcons grab hand them a loss (one of very few this season).
Pick: Falcons
St. Louis @ New York G
The Giants secondary is in shambles and they are really banged up. The only team with more critical injuries than them is the Rams. In the Infirmary Bowl, I’ll take the Giants. Bradford needs more time to get used to McDaniels offence and his new receivers.
Pick: Giants
Season: 9-7
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Vets and Rooks of Week 1
#3 Rook - Nate Solder OT (New England Patriots)
I had Phil Taylor of the Browns penciled in at the #3 spot until Solder bumped him right off the list. Outside of the quarterbacks, he was handed the toughest task of the week: protect Tom Brady from a guy who had 14.5 sacks last season, on Monday Night Football. Solder showed early that he was up to the task registering two pancake blocks on Cameron Wake in the first half. I will say that despite the optics, this matchup did favour Solder as he is a tall athletic player. Wake typically uses his explosive first step and speed to overwhelm larger tackles, but Solder matched him in athleticism. We will see how Solder fares against a large bullrush type player such as Kyle Williams of the Bills, but his performance on Monday was spectacular.
#2 Rook - Randall Cobb WR (Green Bay Packers) - 5 touches 175yds 2 TDs
Cobb has the luxury of joining an extremely talented roster in Green Bay, but one thing you want out of any 2nd round pick is efficiency. Cobb personified that by making the most out of his five touches. He tied a franchise record with his 108 yard kick return for a touchdown and added a receiving touchdown. Cobb was drafted to provide insurance for the scenario that James Jones left in free agency, or Donald Driver's play declined. As proof that all is well in Cheese Head nation, Jones re-signed, Driver is fina dn Cobb has still found a way to make an impact.
#1 Rook - Cam Newton QB (Carolina Panthers) - 422yds 3 total TDs
I mean really, who didn't think Newton would lead the NFC in passing yards after week1? Scoff all you want at the NFC West but the Cardinals defense has some talented players. The biggest sign that the Panthers may have hit a homerun with Newton is that the game didn't seem too fast for him. This has to go down as one of the greatest rookie QB debuts of all time (probably would be THE greatest if they had won). Newton will definitely have his down games but for now, he's the toast of the league.
Offensive Veteran of the Week - Tom Brady QB (New England Patriots) - 517yds 4 TDs
Brady exploded on Monday night throwing for a career high 517 yards against a secondary that recently proclaimed had the best corner tandem in the league. Brady used multiple receivers and didn't even need the services of Ochocinco. After last year's regular season and subsequent playoff blunder, Brady won't earn any additional credit until he gets deep into the playoffs again. That being said he was the best player in the world this week.
Defensive Veteran of the Week - Ed Reed FS (Baltimore Ravens) - 2 Int, 4 PD, 1 TFL
I had a tough time deciding between Reed and teammate Terrell Suggs (3 Sacks), but ultimately I came to the conclusion that the reason Suggs got pressure was aided by the presence of Reed lurking over the middle. He also had 4 passes defended and a critical tackle for a loss. Reed is adding to his legacy as one of the best safeties of all time.
Special Teams Veteran of the Week - Ted Ginn Jr WR (San Francisco 49ers) - 2 return TDs
At a critical juncture, Ginn took over the game against Seattle. He returned a kickoff for a touchdown and then 59 seconds later returned the ensuing punt for a touchdown - effectively putting the game out of reach. Ginn has yet to live up to his hype as a first round receiver but he is one of the best returners in the league. For all the crap he's had to deal with for not living up to almost impossibly high expectations, he deserves this moment in the sun.
- Jansen -
I had Phil Taylor of the Browns penciled in at the #3 spot until Solder bumped him right off the list. Outside of the quarterbacks, he was handed the toughest task of the week: protect Tom Brady from a guy who had 14.5 sacks last season, on Monday Night Football. Solder showed early that he was up to the task registering two pancake blocks on Cameron Wake in the first half. I will say that despite the optics, this matchup did favour Solder as he is a tall athletic player. Wake typically uses his explosive first step and speed to overwhelm larger tackles, but Solder matched him in athleticism. We will see how Solder fares against a large bullrush type player such as Kyle Williams of the Bills, but his performance on Monday was spectacular.
#2 Rook - Randall Cobb WR (Green Bay Packers) - 5 touches 175yds 2 TDs
Cobb has the luxury of joining an extremely talented roster in Green Bay, but one thing you want out of any 2nd round pick is efficiency. Cobb personified that by making the most out of his five touches. He tied a franchise record with his 108 yard kick return for a touchdown and added a receiving touchdown. Cobb was drafted to provide insurance for the scenario that James Jones left in free agency, or Donald Driver's play declined. As proof that all is well in Cheese Head nation, Jones re-signed, Driver is fina dn Cobb has still found a way to make an impact.
#1 Rook - Cam Newton QB (Carolina Panthers) - 422yds 3 total TDs
I mean really, who didn't think Newton would lead the NFC in passing yards after week1? Scoff all you want at the NFC West but the Cardinals defense has some talented players. The biggest sign that the Panthers may have hit a homerun with Newton is that the game didn't seem too fast for him. This has to go down as one of the greatest rookie QB debuts of all time (probably would be THE greatest if they had won). Newton will definitely have his down games but for now, he's the toast of the league.
Offensive Veteran of the Week - Tom Brady QB (New England Patriots) - 517yds 4 TDs
Brady exploded on Monday night throwing for a career high 517 yards against a secondary that recently proclaimed had the best corner tandem in the league. Brady used multiple receivers and didn't even need the services of Ochocinco. After last year's regular season and subsequent playoff blunder, Brady won't earn any additional credit until he gets deep into the playoffs again. That being said he was the best player in the world this week.
Defensive Veteran of the Week - Ed Reed FS (Baltimore Ravens) - 2 Int, 4 PD, 1 TFL
I had a tough time deciding between Reed and teammate Terrell Suggs (3 Sacks), but ultimately I came to the conclusion that the reason Suggs got pressure was aided by the presence of Reed lurking over the middle. He also had 4 passes defended and a critical tackle for a loss. Reed is adding to his legacy as one of the best safeties of all time.
Special Teams Veteran of the Week - Ted Ginn Jr WR (San Francisco 49ers) - 2 return TDs
At a critical juncture, Ginn took over the game against Seattle. He returned a kickoff for a touchdown and then 59 seconds later returned the ensuing punt for a touchdown - effectively putting the game out of reach. Ginn has yet to live up to his hype as a first round receiver but he is one of the best returners in the league. For all the crap he's had to deal with for not living up to almost impossibly high expectations, he deserves this moment in the sun.
- Jansen -
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Week 1 Pick'em
Well, I'm undefeated after Thursday's game. I probably won't get a game wrong all year.
Pick: Packers
Atlanta @ Chicago
The Falcons have made it clear this is going to be their year. The Bears did very little this offseason except defend Jay Cutler's toughness.
Pick: Falcons
Indianapolis @ Houston
The Texans need to win this game if they want to be taken seriously. Will Manning get back in time to save the sinking ship?
Pick: Texans
Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Chiefs will be in the hunt for a division title. The Bills will be in the hunt for a top 5 pick.
Pick: Chiefs
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The battle of Ohio. The Browns arrow is pointing up. The Bengals arrow is point...well it's the Bengals.
Pick: Browns
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Steelers own the Ravens and two excellent but aging defences will be laying some serious hits in this one. I'll still take Big Ben over Flacco.
Pick: Steelers
Philadelphia @ St. Louis
The Rams are improving. The Eagles are the 'dream team'. The new greatest show on turf visits the home of the old one.
Pick: Eagles
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
The bandwagon is just about full for Lions fans. The Bucs are still better and at home.
Pick: Buccaneers
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Jags are making decisions to save money. The Titans run their ball club like a team.
Pick: Titans
Minnesota @ San Diego
San Diego is great at home and need to avoid the slow start. Peterson rushed for 297 last time he faced the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers
Carolina @ Arizona
The Cam Newton Era begins. So does the Kolb Era.
Pick: Cardinals
New York G @ Washington
In what surely will be an emotional atmosphere, the Redskins will pull off an improbable upset.
Pick: Redskins
Seattle @ San Francisco
Midaswell flip a coin. 2 duster quarterbacks.
Pick: 49ers
Dallas @ New York J
Rex Ryan's pregame speech will be epic. Wish I could here it.
Pick: Jets
New England @ Miami
Patriots reloading this offseason. Dolphins still have questions at QB.
Pick: Patriots
Oakland @ Denver
Wish it was Tebow time, but the Broncos rarely lose the opener at home.
Pick: Broncos
Pick: Packers
Atlanta @ Chicago
The Falcons have made it clear this is going to be their year. The Bears did very little this offseason except defend Jay Cutler's toughness.
Pick: Falcons
Indianapolis @ Houston
The Texans need to win this game if they want to be taken seriously. Will Manning get back in time to save the sinking ship?
Pick: Texans
Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Chiefs will be in the hunt for a division title. The Bills will be in the hunt for a top 5 pick.
Pick: Chiefs
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The battle of Ohio. The Browns arrow is pointing up. The Bengals arrow is point...well it's the Bengals.
Pick: Browns
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Steelers own the Ravens and two excellent but aging defences will be laying some serious hits in this one. I'll still take Big Ben over Flacco.
Pick: Steelers
Philadelphia @ St. Louis
The Rams are improving. The Eagles are the 'dream team'. The new greatest show on turf visits the home of the old one.
Pick: Eagles
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
The bandwagon is just about full for Lions fans. The Bucs are still better and at home.
Pick: Buccaneers
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Jags are making decisions to save money. The Titans run their ball club like a team.
Pick: Titans
Minnesota @ San Diego
San Diego is great at home and need to avoid the slow start. Peterson rushed for 297 last time he faced the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers
Carolina @ Arizona
The Cam Newton Era begins. So does the Kolb Era.
Pick: Cardinals
New York G @ Washington
In what surely will be an emotional atmosphere, the Redskins will pull off an improbable upset.
Pick: Redskins
Seattle @ San Francisco
Midaswell flip a coin. 2 duster quarterbacks.
Pick: 49ers
Dallas @ New York J
Rex Ryan's pregame speech will be epic. Wish I could here it.
Pick: Jets
New England @ Miami
Patriots reloading this offseason. Dolphins still have questions at QB.
Pick: Patriots
Oakland @ Denver
Wish it was Tebow time, but the Broncos rarely lose the opener at home.
Pick: Broncos
NFC Season Preview
With the 2011 NFL Season set to kickoff tonight, it's time for my NFC Season Preview...
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Green Bay Packers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. St. Louis Rams
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Dallas Cowboys
Eagles over Falcons
Packers over Saints
Eagles over Packers
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
For a team that lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions in the 2nd round of the playoffs last season, they certainly aren’t resting on their laurels. Aaron Rodgers frustrated Eagle fans by spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, proving that it takes a deep secondary to win in the NFL today. The Eagles brass apparently got the memo and signed arguably the best corner in football in Nnamdi Asomugha and traded Kevin Kolb for another Pro Bowl corner – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. With Asante Samuel still on the roster, the Eagles have the best secondary in football, on paper. The Eagles continued to upgrade their defense adding free agents Justin Babin DE and Cullen Jenkins DE/DT. These guys will improve the Eagles pass rush which can only make it easier for the best secondary in football.
Based on how Michael Vick played last year it seemed as though the Eagles were more focused on fixing the defensive problems than improving an already explosive offence. Well, that idea was thrown out the window when the Eagles signed WR Steve Smith from the division rival Giants and added RB Ronnie Brown to help spell LeSean McCoy.
The addition of guard Danny Watkins in the draft will help solidify the offensive line and should help the running game immensely. I have given up on Vince Young because at some point I don’t think you can help a player who doesn’t want to help himself. That being said, getting him at a discount to backup Vick (a very similar style of player) is good insurance as his athleticism might be enough to win a game if he is called into action.
As Vick goes, so will the Eagles. For how electrifying he is as a passer and runner, his style of play gives rise to a higher probability of injury. If he stays healthy I fully expect the Eagles to be playing the NFC championship game. If not, Andy Reid will have an uphill battle getting through the wild card round with Young at the helm.
2. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are another team that has an abundance of talent. Losing out on the Nnamdi sweepstakes was a personal disappointment for Jerry Jones. That being said, the Cowboys still return a lot of quality players on defense. Demarcus Ware has received criticism that he is not the leader the Cowboys want him to be. If he isn’t up to the task, someone else will need to step into that role as the ‘Boys need to establish an identity on defense. The secondary is aging, but they should be up to the challenge for 2011. Bruce Carter is a first round talent that Dallas grabbed in the second round due to a torn ACL. With the way players bounce back from ACL tears these days, don’t be surprised of Carter makes an immediate impact.
The offence played much better last year after Jason Garret took over head coaching duties. Adding OT Tyron Smith in the first round was done to keep Tony Romo healthy this year. With Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and the offensive mind of Jason Garrett, pass protection will be essential to the Cowboys success this season.
3. New York Giants
Recently Eli Manning made a comment that he is in the same class as Tom Brady. While I don’t agree with his statement, you wouldn’t want Eli to say anything else when asked to answer a loaded question. The offensive line will have a new look this season and it appears as though Ahmad Bradshaw will shoulder most of the load in the run game. I fully expect Eli to throw a lot less picks this season and another year of practice with Hakeem Nicks can’t hurt. The offense could be top 10 but I question Bradshaw’s ability to stay healthy and they still have to prove they can run behind a retooled offensive line.
Defensively the Giants added a lot of help in the draft. They practically stole CB Prince Amukamara with their first round pick and getting the freak DT Marvin Austin in the second round was also great value. The Giants still possess one of the top defensive lines in football and their secondary should perform better this season. Question at linebacker still persist and in a traditionally tough division, I expect the Giants to fall just short of a wildcard spot.
4. Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins seem to be moving in the right direction. That’s a big statement considering they have been the NFL’s worst run franchise for years. Mike Shanahan is ready to roll with Rex Grossman, but will likely use this season as an evaluation, and will look to draft a QB (Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley) next year. First round pick Ryan Kerrigan DE/OLB should develop into a solid contributor. He has looked great in preseason. DeAngelo Hall was the only corner last year who gave up over 1000 yards receiving. That doesn’t bode well for an aging secondary in a division that will surely pass more than run.
I have a feeling Grossman will exceed expectations but that alone will not be enough to finish ahead of the other quality teams within the division. Roy Helu is a good zone runner and could emerge as the starter by midseason.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
Let’s state the obvious upfront: It is extremely difficult to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Typically the reasons for this are:
- A shortened offseason that is full of marketing commitments and white house visits
- The team loses a number of ‘role players’ to lucrative contracts via free agency to teams willing to (over)pay for their services. This radically reduces the depth on the roster
- The team lacks the hunger it had to get back to the big game. Although these guys are professionals, a team that got so close but lost is a lot more focused than the team that won it all.
Having said all that, the Packers are in a unique position this year to have a shot at defending their title. First of all, every team had a shortened offseason due to the lockout. This will make it harder for teams that have a lot of rookies and new faces since developing chemistry and timing takes lots of reps in practice. What usually would be a detriment, has become an asset to the Packers as they return the majority of their starting lineup.
The Packers only big losses this offseason were Cullen Jenkins and Daryn Colledge. While significant, the Packers have done a nice job replenishing the talent pool that will serve to replace these guys. Drafting Derek Sherrod in the first round gives the Packers more flexibility on the offensive line. Oh, and the best acquisitions the Packers made were internal as they get Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant back from injury. Both players are among the best at their position.
Finally, the hunger. Listen, the reality is there are going to be some guys on the Packers that rest on the laurels and put it into ‘cruise control’ this season. However, think about guys like Grant and Finley. They know that the team is good enough to win and they want to be part of another championship. Charles Woodson is in the twilight of his career and would love nothing more than to finish on top. In the end though, it all comes down to Aaron Rodgers. Do you think Rodgers is blind to the fact that winning another Super Bowl in the green and gold would give him more rings than Brett Favre? Definitely not and I guarantee he doesn’t need any more motivation than that.
2. Detroit Lions
To me the Lions season comes down to one question: can Matthew Stafford stay healthy. Through no fault of his own, Stafford has missed a lot of time over the last few seasons with shoulder injuries (never a good thing for a QB). For some reason, the Lions brass didn’t think it was important enough to upgrade their offensive line. Good call guys.
Based on talent alone, Calvin Johnson (Megatron) is the best receiver in the NFL. With a healthy Stafford, his numbers could explode in 2011. Losing rookie RB Mikel LeShoure for the season is a big loss because he was supposed to be the power runner to compliment Jahvid Best. Best is at his ‘best’ when touching the ball 15 times a game. Any more and he runs the risk of getting dinged up.
Adding Nick Fairley was great value in the draft and the tandem of Fairley and Ndamukong Suh could develop into the NFL’s best. The big question to me is the secondary. They did very little to upgrade this unit and should have been more active in the Nnamdi Asomugha sweepstakes. They will be stout against the run but when teams spread them out, the onus will be on their defensive line to generate pressure and sacks. If they can’t, the secondary will be exposed. I envision a 9-7 season for the Lions which will put them in the race for 2nd in the NFC North.
3. Chicago Bears
If you believe everything NFL analysts are saying, then the Chicago Bears are poised for the biggest drop off in wins from 2010 to 2011. There is some merit to this as the defense is getting older and they are weak along the offensive line. Sound familiar? If so, it was the same logic used last year to explain why the Bears wouldn’t make the playoffs, let alone host the NFC Championship game. Despite aging, the defense should still rank in the top third in 2011. The offensive line is porous but it was last year and Cutler still got them to the NFC Championship. Do I think the Bears will make the playoffs? No. But that’s mainly because other teams have really improved. The Bears, Vikings and Lions will all finish between 6-10 and 9-7 with the order of finish being somewhat of a crapshoot.
4. Minnesota Vikings
2010’s most disappointing team has a new quarterback as the legendary Brett Favre finally seems to have ridden into the sunset. While Favre was awful last season, the defense was equally bad and the team lacked emotion all year. The X-factor on the season will be whether or not Leslie Frazier can get the defense back to 2009 form. If he can, they can grind out games with Adrian Peterson and utilize Donovan McNabb in play action situations. The loss of Sidney Rice cannot be overstated. He was incredible when he came back at the end of the season, and it didn’t matter who was at quarterback. Do we see Philadelphia Eagles McNabb or Washington Redskins McNabb. I expect something in between the two which is good enough to put them in the 6 to 9 win range. Either way, McNabb is not the future, 1st round pick Christian Ponder is. If the Vikings struggle out of the gate, we could see Ponder by midseason.
NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
I have a great appreciation for Rams management. They recognized they were in a rebuilding era and went about things the right way. They have a young team, an emerging star at quarterback and a plethora of pass rushers (perfect for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense). The Rams narrowly missed the playoffs last year in Sam Bradford’s rookie year. He goes into this season with more offensive weapons, a mastermind offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels and another offseason under his belt. I expect Bradford to finish in the top 10 in QB rating this season.
On defense, it seems as though Chris Long is finally coming into his own. First round pick Robert Quinn has the physical tools to be a Dwight Freeney type player off the edge and James Laurinaitis is a tackling machine. While the NFC West is a weak division overall, the Rams are best positioned to take the division title.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The addition of QB Kevin Kolb came at a hefty price, but the value of a quality starting quarterback is higher than ever in today’s NFL. The move clearly pleased Larry Fitzgerald as he signed a contract extension to stay in Arizona. If Kolb turns out to be the player people expect, the Cardinals will be well positioned going forward. Kolb will likely be a top 15 starter in the NFL, but I don’t know that he has the ceiling of a top 5 passer. Beanie Wells has been anemic in his short career, but the season ending injury to 2nd round pick Ryan Williams all but ensures Wells will get the majority of carries this year. It might be his last chance to secure a starting role.
Defensively the Cardinals have some very talented players. Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes are Pro Bowl caliber veterans at the safety positions and the front seven has really filled in nicely. Darnell Docket and Calais Campbell are extremely good defensive ends and hopefully Dan Williams can become the space eater the Cards envisioned when they drafted him in the first round a year ago. First round pick Patrick Peterson should step right into the lineup and compete at a high level. In the NFL right now you can’t have enough corners, but drafting him made it easier for the Cardinals to get rid of Rodgers-Cromartie.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The Alex Smith Trap: Smith has a great physical skill-set that coaches all dream about when drafting quarterbacks. He is an intelligent player who understands the x’s and o’s. Every time the 49ers bring in a new coach, they immediately think “well I’m going to draft/sign a QB I like but hey, I’ll sit down with Alex and see what he’s like”. Inevitably, he wows the new coach with his knowledge and understanding of the game. The coach then goes and looks at the tape and sees his arm strength and mobility and thinks, “hey, this kid just hasn’t been coached properly. I’m the guy who can get the best out of him”. So they buy in to Smith, don’t make quarterback a top priority in the offseason and come week 2 want to blow their skull off. Don’t worry Harbaugh, you aren’t the first to fall into the trap, but I have a feeling you’ll be the last. It has to be frustrating being a Niners fan considering the team is extremely gifted at almost every position except quarterback (and maybe corner). Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Braylon Edwards and one of the best young offensive lines in football isn’t enough to help Smith succeed.
Defensively, San Fran will be solid again with the best linebacker in the game, Patrick Willis, calling the shots. They will likely finish in the top half of the league in team defense, but none of that matters because of Smith. Drafting OLB Aldon Smith 7th overall this year was a bit high, but he is young and has a lot of raw ability as a pass rusher. Harbaugh now must realize that he has fallen into the trap and should look to sign Ryan Leaf. That way, the Niners won’t win a game and Jim can draft his prodigy Andrew Luck first overall in 2012. For you optimistic Niner fans, that is a far better outcome than being a .500 ballclub for the next five years.
4. Seattle Seahawks
Although I’m not as steadfast in this one, I am starting to develop a Pete Carroll theory. Raise your hand if you believe in Tarvaris Jackson. Well, along with everyone else, I believe Carroll kept his hands firmly at his side. Carroll knows the importance of a top quarterback but wasn’t prepared to pay a kings ransom for unproven Kevin Kolb. Signing Jackson ensures one thing: the Seahawks won’t make the playoffs. By missing the playoffs, Seattle is guaranteed a top 20 pick. In all likelihood it will be a top 10 pick and I think Carroll has his eye fixed on his old quarterback Matt Barkley. Adding Sidney Rice was a smart move as he will rejoin Darrel Bevel (the Vikings offensive coordinator last season) as he is now the OC in Seattle.
Don’t get me wrong, the Seahawks have some talented players. Their offensive line is becoming a strong point again with back to back first round tackles (Okung and Carpenter) stepping into the lineup. Centre Max Unger is emerging as a top player at the position and Guard Robert Gallery was signed as a free agent and should solidify the unit. Marshawn Lynch still has his ‘beast mode’ as we saw in the playoffs, and Justin Forsett is a serviceable 3rd down back. Earl Thomas was outstanding as a rookie last year and wears the ball hawk tag well. Still, it’s got to be frustrating for Carroll who rarely took the field on Saturday’s at USC without the best QB. And with the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…Matt Barkley QB USC.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints
This offseason the Saints realized that although they have a talented team, they needed an injection of youth if they want to compete in the always improving NFC South. Brees was forced to throw more last year as the Saints backfield suffered a rash of injuries that significantly hindered Sean Peyton’s playcalling. Enter Heisman Trophy winner and first round pick Mark Ingram. Ingram will eventually be the lead horse in the Saints backfield but with Pierre Thomas and the recently signed Darren Sproles, the Saints should be able to use a myriad of personnel combinations as well as formations to confuse opponents. Another big difference between the Saints Super Bowl team and last year’s squad was their defense failed to create turnovers. First round pick Cameron Jordan should help apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks which will allow the secondary to be more aggressive (a style they love to play). New Orleans is another team that will benefit from a shortened offseason as they already have solid chemistry and were one of the first teams to hold option workouts led by their general: Drew Brees.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Falcons management sent a message when they traded way up in the first round to grab Julio Jones. They believe they are ready to win now and it’s hard to disagree with that sentiment. Matt Ryan has emerged as one of the better young passers in the league. His performance in the clutch has earned him the nickname Matty Ice. The only reason I dropped the Falcons below the Saints is because of the mileage on Michael Turner. He is north of 30 now and his bruising style of running takes a toll. If Turner goes down they will turn to Jason Snelling and rookie Jacquizz Rodgers. I like both players but they are not complete backs. Ryan can throw with the best of them but this team is at its best when it can run a balanced offence. That being said I do believe the Falcons are ahead of the Saints on defense. They have a very underrated secondary and a lot of speed at the linebacker position. John Abraham will need to continue harassing opposing quarterbacks if they have Super Bowl aspirations.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year’s biggest surprise will be this year’s biggest disappointment. I really like the Bucs and in the coming years they will compete for a championship. 2011 is not that year. They had a powder puff schedule last season and really didn’t beat anyone that was very good. The X-factor for them is Josh Freeman. He has been very impressive and if he can take the next step this year, they may make the competitive jump a year ahead of schedule. The reality is they are not very deep in the backfield. LeGarette Blount was a surprise to everyone but me last year. How a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate of his size got passed over completely in the draft is beyond me. However it remains to be seen whether he can shoulder the load for an entire season. If not, who else is there? Mike Williams will see more double coverage, however I think he’ll do just fine. The kid has great ball skills and a knack for the big play.
Aqib Talib is an emerging star at CB (assuming he can handle himself off the field), and the Bucs added two more young defensive linemen in Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. Ronde Barber’s age will show this season and the Bucs will finish just shy of a playoff berth once again.
4. Carolina Panthers
Let me just say this team is a lot better than 2-14. The majority of players remain from the days when they had a devastating two-headed rushing attack. Last year injuries really derailed the run game and left rookie Jimmy Clausen to try and lead the team through the air (no easy task). With Cam Newton at the helm, the run game will improve as backside defenders will have to play the bootleg threat instead of pursuing the ball-carrier. Newton will show flashes of brilliance and have moments that leave you wondering how he could’ve been the 1st pick in the draft. Either way it will be a season of inconsistency for the Panthers but should net them 5 wins. Will Newton become a superstar? Maybe….We’ll all just have to wait and see.
- Jansen -
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Green Bay Packers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. St. Louis Rams
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Dallas Cowboys
Eagles over Falcons
Packers over Saints
Eagles over Packers
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
For a team that lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions in the 2nd round of the playoffs last season, they certainly aren’t resting on their laurels. Aaron Rodgers frustrated Eagle fans by spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, proving that it takes a deep secondary to win in the NFL today. The Eagles brass apparently got the memo and signed arguably the best corner in football in Nnamdi Asomugha and traded Kevin Kolb for another Pro Bowl corner – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. With Asante Samuel still on the roster, the Eagles have the best secondary in football, on paper. The Eagles continued to upgrade their defense adding free agents Justin Babin DE and Cullen Jenkins DE/DT. These guys will improve the Eagles pass rush which can only make it easier for the best secondary in football.
Based on how Michael Vick played last year it seemed as though the Eagles were more focused on fixing the defensive problems than improving an already explosive offence. Well, that idea was thrown out the window when the Eagles signed WR Steve Smith from the division rival Giants and added RB Ronnie Brown to help spell LeSean McCoy.
The addition of guard Danny Watkins in the draft will help solidify the offensive line and should help the running game immensely. I have given up on Vince Young because at some point I don’t think you can help a player who doesn’t want to help himself. That being said, getting him at a discount to backup Vick (a very similar style of player) is good insurance as his athleticism might be enough to win a game if he is called into action.
As Vick goes, so will the Eagles. For how electrifying he is as a passer and runner, his style of play gives rise to a higher probability of injury. If he stays healthy I fully expect the Eagles to be playing the NFC championship game. If not, Andy Reid will have an uphill battle getting through the wild card round with Young at the helm.
2. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are another team that has an abundance of talent. Losing out on the Nnamdi sweepstakes was a personal disappointment for Jerry Jones. That being said, the Cowboys still return a lot of quality players on defense. Demarcus Ware has received criticism that he is not the leader the Cowboys want him to be. If he isn’t up to the task, someone else will need to step into that role as the ‘Boys need to establish an identity on defense. The secondary is aging, but they should be up to the challenge for 2011. Bruce Carter is a first round talent that Dallas grabbed in the second round due to a torn ACL. With the way players bounce back from ACL tears these days, don’t be surprised of Carter makes an immediate impact.
The offence played much better last year after Jason Garret took over head coaching duties. Adding OT Tyron Smith in the first round was done to keep Tony Romo healthy this year. With Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and the offensive mind of Jason Garrett, pass protection will be essential to the Cowboys success this season.
3. New York Giants
Recently Eli Manning made a comment that he is in the same class as Tom Brady. While I don’t agree with his statement, you wouldn’t want Eli to say anything else when asked to answer a loaded question. The offensive line will have a new look this season and it appears as though Ahmad Bradshaw will shoulder most of the load in the run game. I fully expect Eli to throw a lot less picks this season and another year of practice with Hakeem Nicks can’t hurt. The offense could be top 10 but I question Bradshaw’s ability to stay healthy and they still have to prove they can run behind a retooled offensive line.
Defensively the Giants added a lot of help in the draft. They practically stole CB Prince Amukamara with their first round pick and getting the freak DT Marvin Austin in the second round was also great value. The Giants still possess one of the top defensive lines in football and their secondary should perform better this season. Question at linebacker still persist and in a traditionally tough division, I expect the Giants to fall just short of a wildcard spot.
4. Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins seem to be moving in the right direction. That’s a big statement considering they have been the NFL’s worst run franchise for years. Mike Shanahan is ready to roll with Rex Grossman, but will likely use this season as an evaluation, and will look to draft a QB (Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley) next year. First round pick Ryan Kerrigan DE/OLB should develop into a solid contributor. He has looked great in preseason. DeAngelo Hall was the only corner last year who gave up over 1000 yards receiving. That doesn’t bode well for an aging secondary in a division that will surely pass more than run.
I have a feeling Grossman will exceed expectations but that alone will not be enough to finish ahead of the other quality teams within the division. Roy Helu is a good zone runner and could emerge as the starter by midseason.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
Let’s state the obvious upfront: It is extremely difficult to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Typically the reasons for this are:
- A shortened offseason that is full of marketing commitments and white house visits
- The team loses a number of ‘role players’ to lucrative contracts via free agency to teams willing to (over)pay for their services. This radically reduces the depth on the roster
- The team lacks the hunger it had to get back to the big game. Although these guys are professionals, a team that got so close but lost is a lot more focused than the team that won it all.
Having said all that, the Packers are in a unique position this year to have a shot at defending their title. First of all, every team had a shortened offseason due to the lockout. This will make it harder for teams that have a lot of rookies and new faces since developing chemistry and timing takes lots of reps in practice. What usually would be a detriment, has become an asset to the Packers as they return the majority of their starting lineup.
The Packers only big losses this offseason were Cullen Jenkins and Daryn Colledge. While significant, the Packers have done a nice job replenishing the talent pool that will serve to replace these guys. Drafting Derek Sherrod in the first round gives the Packers more flexibility on the offensive line. Oh, and the best acquisitions the Packers made were internal as they get Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant back from injury. Both players are among the best at their position.
Finally, the hunger. Listen, the reality is there are going to be some guys on the Packers that rest on the laurels and put it into ‘cruise control’ this season. However, think about guys like Grant and Finley. They know that the team is good enough to win and they want to be part of another championship. Charles Woodson is in the twilight of his career and would love nothing more than to finish on top. In the end though, it all comes down to Aaron Rodgers. Do you think Rodgers is blind to the fact that winning another Super Bowl in the green and gold would give him more rings than Brett Favre? Definitely not and I guarantee he doesn’t need any more motivation than that.
2. Detroit Lions
To me the Lions season comes down to one question: can Matthew Stafford stay healthy. Through no fault of his own, Stafford has missed a lot of time over the last few seasons with shoulder injuries (never a good thing for a QB). For some reason, the Lions brass didn’t think it was important enough to upgrade their offensive line. Good call guys.
Based on talent alone, Calvin Johnson (Megatron) is the best receiver in the NFL. With a healthy Stafford, his numbers could explode in 2011. Losing rookie RB Mikel LeShoure for the season is a big loss because he was supposed to be the power runner to compliment Jahvid Best. Best is at his ‘best’ when touching the ball 15 times a game. Any more and he runs the risk of getting dinged up.
Adding Nick Fairley was great value in the draft and the tandem of Fairley and Ndamukong Suh could develop into the NFL’s best. The big question to me is the secondary. They did very little to upgrade this unit and should have been more active in the Nnamdi Asomugha sweepstakes. They will be stout against the run but when teams spread them out, the onus will be on their defensive line to generate pressure and sacks. If they can’t, the secondary will be exposed. I envision a 9-7 season for the Lions which will put them in the race for 2nd in the NFC North.
3. Chicago Bears
If you believe everything NFL analysts are saying, then the Chicago Bears are poised for the biggest drop off in wins from 2010 to 2011. There is some merit to this as the defense is getting older and they are weak along the offensive line. Sound familiar? If so, it was the same logic used last year to explain why the Bears wouldn’t make the playoffs, let alone host the NFC Championship game. Despite aging, the defense should still rank in the top third in 2011. The offensive line is porous but it was last year and Cutler still got them to the NFC Championship. Do I think the Bears will make the playoffs? No. But that’s mainly because other teams have really improved. The Bears, Vikings and Lions will all finish between 6-10 and 9-7 with the order of finish being somewhat of a crapshoot.
4. Minnesota Vikings
2010’s most disappointing team has a new quarterback as the legendary Brett Favre finally seems to have ridden into the sunset. While Favre was awful last season, the defense was equally bad and the team lacked emotion all year. The X-factor on the season will be whether or not Leslie Frazier can get the defense back to 2009 form. If he can, they can grind out games with Adrian Peterson and utilize Donovan McNabb in play action situations. The loss of Sidney Rice cannot be overstated. He was incredible when he came back at the end of the season, and it didn’t matter who was at quarterback. Do we see Philadelphia Eagles McNabb or Washington Redskins McNabb. I expect something in between the two which is good enough to put them in the 6 to 9 win range. Either way, McNabb is not the future, 1st round pick Christian Ponder is. If the Vikings struggle out of the gate, we could see Ponder by midseason.
NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
I have a great appreciation for Rams management. They recognized they were in a rebuilding era and went about things the right way. They have a young team, an emerging star at quarterback and a plethora of pass rushers (perfect for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense). The Rams narrowly missed the playoffs last year in Sam Bradford’s rookie year. He goes into this season with more offensive weapons, a mastermind offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels and another offseason under his belt. I expect Bradford to finish in the top 10 in QB rating this season.
On defense, it seems as though Chris Long is finally coming into his own. First round pick Robert Quinn has the physical tools to be a Dwight Freeney type player off the edge and James Laurinaitis is a tackling machine. While the NFC West is a weak division overall, the Rams are best positioned to take the division title.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The addition of QB Kevin Kolb came at a hefty price, but the value of a quality starting quarterback is higher than ever in today’s NFL. The move clearly pleased Larry Fitzgerald as he signed a contract extension to stay in Arizona. If Kolb turns out to be the player people expect, the Cardinals will be well positioned going forward. Kolb will likely be a top 15 starter in the NFL, but I don’t know that he has the ceiling of a top 5 passer. Beanie Wells has been anemic in his short career, but the season ending injury to 2nd round pick Ryan Williams all but ensures Wells will get the majority of carries this year. It might be his last chance to secure a starting role.
Defensively the Cardinals have some very talented players. Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes are Pro Bowl caliber veterans at the safety positions and the front seven has really filled in nicely. Darnell Docket and Calais Campbell are extremely good defensive ends and hopefully Dan Williams can become the space eater the Cards envisioned when they drafted him in the first round a year ago. First round pick Patrick Peterson should step right into the lineup and compete at a high level. In the NFL right now you can’t have enough corners, but drafting him made it easier for the Cardinals to get rid of Rodgers-Cromartie.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The Alex Smith Trap: Smith has a great physical skill-set that coaches all dream about when drafting quarterbacks. He is an intelligent player who understands the x’s and o’s. Every time the 49ers bring in a new coach, they immediately think “well I’m going to draft/sign a QB I like but hey, I’ll sit down with Alex and see what he’s like”. Inevitably, he wows the new coach with his knowledge and understanding of the game. The coach then goes and looks at the tape and sees his arm strength and mobility and thinks, “hey, this kid just hasn’t been coached properly. I’m the guy who can get the best out of him”. So they buy in to Smith, don’t make quarterback a top priority in the offseason and come week 2 want to blow their skull off. Don’t worry Harbaugh, you aren’t the first to fall into the trap, but I have a feeling you’ll be the last. It has to be frustrating being a Niners fan considering the team is extremely gifted at almost every position except quarterback (and maybe corner). Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Braylon Edwards and one of the best young offensive lines in football isn’t enough to help Smith succeed.
Defensively, San Fran will be solid again with the best linebacker in the game, Patrick Willis, calling the shots. They will likely finish in the top half of the league in team defense, but none of that matters because of Smith. Drafting OLB Aldon Smith 7th overall this year was a bit high, but he is young and has a lot of raw ability as a pass rusher. Harbaugh now must realize that he has fallen into the trap and should look to sign Ryan Leaf. That way, the Niners won’t win a game and Jim can draft his prodigy Andrew Luck first overall in 2012. For you optimistic Niner fans, that is a far better outcome than being a .500 ballclub for the next five years.
4. Seattle Seahawks
Although I’m not as steadfast in this one, I am starting to develop a Pete Carroll theory. Raise your hand if you believe in Tarvaris Jackson. Well, along with everyone else, I believe Carroll kept his hands firmly at his side. Carroll knows the importance of a top quarterback but wasn’t prepared to pay a kings ransom for unproven Kevin Kolb. Signing Jackson ensures one thing: the Seahawks won’t make the playoffs. By missing the playoffs, Seattle is guaranteed a top 20 pick. In all likelihood it will be a top 10 pick and I think Carroll has his eye fixed on his old quarterback Matt Barkley. Adding Sidney Rice was a smart move as he will rejoin Darrel Bevel (the Vikings offensive coordinator last season) as he is now the OC in Seattle.
Don’t get me wrong, the Seahawks have some talented players. Their offensive line is becoming a strong point again with back to back first round tackles (Okung and Carpenter) stepping into the lineup. Centre Max Unger is emerging as a top player at the position and Guard Robert Gallery was signed as a free agent and should solidify the unit. Marshawn Lynch still has his ‘beast mode’ as we saw in the playoffs, and Justin Forsett is a serviceable 3rd down back. Earl Thomas was outstanding as a rookie last year and wears the ball hawk tag well. Still, it’s got to be frustrating for Carroll who rarely took the field on Saturday’s at USC without the best QB. And with the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…Matt Barkley QB USC.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints
This offseason the Saints realized that although they have a talented team, they needed an injection of youth if they want to compete in the always improving NFC South. Brees was forced to throw more last year as the Saints backfield suffered a rash of injuries that significantly hindered Sean Peyton’s playcalling. Enter Heisman Trophy winner and first round pick Mark Ingram. Ingram will eventually be the lead horse in the Saints backfield but with Pierre Thomas and the recently signed Darren Sproles, the Saints should be able to use a myriad of personnel combinations as well as formations to confuse opponents. Another big difference between the Saints Super Bowl team and last year’s squad was their defense failed to create turnovers. First round pick Cameron Jordan should help apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks which will allow the secondary to be more aggressive (a style they love to play). New Orleans is another team that will benefit from a shortened offseason as they already have solid chemistry and were one of the first teams to hold option workouts led by their general: Drew Brees.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Falcons management sent a message when they traded way up in the first round to grab Julio Jones. They believe they are ready to win now and it’s hard to disagree with that sentiment. Matt Ryan has emerged as one of the better young passers in the league. His performance in the clutch has earned him the nickname Matty Ice. The only reason I dropped the Falcons below the Saints is because of the mileage on Michael Turner. He is north of 30 now and his bruising style of running takes a toll. If Turner goes down they will turn to Jason Snelling and rookie Jacquizz Rodgers. I like both players but they are not complete backs. Ryan can throw with the best of them but this team is at its best when it can run a balanced offence. That being said I do believe the Falcons are ahead of the Saints on defense. They have a very underrated secondary and a lot of speed at the linebacker position. John Abraham will need to continue harassing opposing quarterbacks if they have Super Bowl aspirations.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year’s biggest surprise will be this year’s biggest disappointment. I really like the Bucs and in the coming years they will compete for a championship. 2011 is not that year. They had a powder puff schedule last season and really didn’t beat anyone that was very good. The X-factor for them is Josh Freeman. He has been very impressive and if he can take the next step this year, they may make the competitive jump a year ahead of schedule. The reality is they are not very deep in the backfield. LeGarette Blount was a surprise to everyone but me last year. How a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate of his size got passed over completely in the draft is beyond me. However it remains to be seen whether he can shoulder the load for an entire season. If not, who else is there? Mike Williams will see more double coverage, however I think he’ll do just fine. The kid has great ball skills and a knack for the big play.
Aqib Talib is an emerging star at CB (assuming he can handle himself off the field), and the Bucs added two more young defensive linemen in Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. Ronde Barber’s age will show this season and the Bucs will finish just shy of a playoff berth once again.
4. Carolina Panthers
Let me just say this team is a lot better than 2-14. The majority of players remain from the days when they had a devastating two-headed rushing attack. Last year injuries really derailed the run game and left rookie Jimmy Clausen to try and lead the team through the air (no easy task). With Cam Newton at the helm, the run game will improve as backside defenders will have to play the bootleg threat instead of pursuing the ball-carrier. Newton will show flashes of brilliance and have moments that leave you wondering how he could’ve been the 1st pick in the draft. Either way it will be a season of inconsistency for the Panthers but should net them 5 wins. Will Newton become a superstar? Maybe….We’ll all just have to wait and see.
- Jansen -
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