Monday, November 29, 2010

The Troy Smith Experiment

Troy Smith's audition to be the franchise quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers continues tonight.  He has six games left to prove to his front office, his coaches and his teammates that he is the guy to lead their team into the future.  You'll probably hear some stories tonight during the broadcast about how he is a bit of journey man and lost the starting job in Baltimore to Joe Flacco, but don't believe everything you hear.

Smith was slated to be the starter in Baltimore until an illness railroaded his season.  Flacco was forced to start from the beginning and because he played so well, the Ravens never looked back.  This left Smith out of the mix, however the Ravens coaches had nothing but positive things to say about the former Heisman Trophy winner.  

He was patient, sitting behind Alex Smith and David Carr for most of the season, and now has been given his chance.  If you're a Niners fan who is looking forward to drafting either Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallet of Jake Locker, I'll ask you to give this guy a chance.  Although he is extremely mobile, he has always been more of a pocket passer than a scrambler.  He can make all the throws and has great leadership qualities.

The 49ers team is being built to run the football and play good defence.  Drafting two offensive linemen in the first round to compliment Frank Gore reinforces that point.  Therefore, this type of team needs a smart quarterback who is great off play action and can take off and run when no one is open.  So while dreams of Luck, Locker and Mallet drift through your head tonight, just remember to watch this guy with an open mind.  He just might surprise you.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Week 12 Pick'em

Vikings @ Redskins (+2)
Leslie Frazier takes over the sinking ship in Minny.  While they are out of the playoffs, I expect them to play loose and come away with a win like the Cowboys did with Jason Garret.

Straight Up: Vikings
Spread: Vikings (-2)

Steelers @ Bills (+7)
The Steelers are coming off a convincing win over the Raiders.  The Bills are playing teams tough lately and Ryan Fitzpatrick is proving that smarts can overcome physical talent at the quarterback position.  Still, I like the Steelers to cover because of solid defence.

Straight Up: Steelers
Spread: Steelers (-7)

Titans @ Texans (-6)
Bill Simmons wrote a great article on why the 2010 NFL MVP is WIPQATT (whoever is playing quarterback against the Texans).  This week, that's Rusty Smith?  I expect him to be a tad rusty.

Straight Up: Texans
Spread: Titans (+6)

Jaguars @ Giants (-7)
The Giants need to get back on track if they want to remain in the hunt.  The receiving core is banged up and Eli has been less accurate in recent weeks.  I want to take the Jags, but they typically don't play as well in the cold weather.

Straight Up: Giants
Spread: Jaguars (+7)

Panthers @ Browns (-9)
The Panthers have not shown any resolve this season and John Fox will be gone at the end of the season.  The Browns turn to Jake Delhomme this week, which should prove disastrous.  He should be due for a few picks and that should keep it close to cover the spread.

Straight Up: Browns
Spread:  Panthers (+9)

Packers @ Falcons (-1.5)
A great showdown for NFC supremacy.  Matt Ryan is 18-1 in the Georgia Dome but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing great offence and defence.  This should be a 4th quarter thriller, but I'll take Matty Ice at home.

Straight Up: Falcons
Spread: Falcons (-1.5)

Dolphins @ Raiders (-2.5)
Both these teams are hard to evaluate.  They play well one week and then lay an egg the next.  The difference is, the Dolphins haven't been able to run the ball with the same effectiveness as they have in the last few years.  Run DMC has finally come to the party in Oakland.

Straight Up: Raiders
Spread: Raiders (-2.5)

Chiefs @ Seahawks (+2)
The Seahawks play great at home.  Matt Cassel doesn't have the arm strength to take over a game in the North West.  Enjoy two future superstars at safety in this one: Eric Berry and Earl Thomas.

Straight Up: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks (+2)

Bucs @ Ravens (-7)
The Bucs just keep winning.  This is a tough road test for a young team but they have been up to the challenge in most and are coming off a shutout.  Ravens should win, but I really like the Bucs to cover.

Straight Up: Ravens
Spread: Bucs (+7)

Eagles @ Bears (+3.5)
I'm torn.  The Bears defence has been exceptional against the run and they have enough speed in their front seven to contain Vick.  The issue is, I don't think their secondary is strong enough and you can count on Vick to create time for his receivers on more than one occasion in this one.

Straight Up: Eagles
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

Rams @ Broncos (-3.5)
The Broncos got their butts kicked on Monday, but they are at home against a mediocre opponent.  Mile High is one of the toughest places to play.

Straight Up: Broncos
Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)
Sunday night shootout.  The Colts are a different team in the dome and the big question will be whether or not Freeney and Mathis can get to Rivers before he can get guys open down the field.  I can't go against Manning in primetime at home.

Straight Up: Colts
Spread: Colts (-2.5)

Niners @ Cardinals (+1)
Both teams have been terrible.

Straight Up: Niners
Spread: Niners (-1)

Season Straight Up: 92-70
Season vs Spread: 71-86-5

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Thanksgiving Pick'em

Before the season started, these match-ups looked to be great.  Unfortunately due to the Cowboys and Bengals struggles, the games are less relevant for the playoff picture.  Nonetheless I expect the games to all be close and provide everyone with some Thanksgiving entertainment.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (+7.5)
The Lions are 4-0 against the spread this year at home and 7-2-1 against the spread all season.  As soon as the line got pushed above 7, it was an easy decision for me.  I expect Tom Brady and the Patriots to pull this one out, but the Lions at home will keep it close, as they have all year.

Straight Up: Patriots
Spread: Lions (+7.5)

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5)
The Cowboys have been playing inspired football under Jason Garret and get a home game on Thanksgiving to move to 3-0 under his watch.  I expect a lot of points in this one, but the Saints are in a divisional battle and could get Reggie Bush back.  

Straight Up: Saints 
Spread: Saints (-4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-9.5)
A rematch of last years wild card round is much less intriguing in 2010.  The Jets look like contenders to be in the AFC championship game, and the Bengals look like contenders for the #1 overall pick in 2011.  The Jets haven't exactly blown teams out lately and the Bengals have enough talent to keep this close in the primetime Thanksgiving game.

Straight Up: Jets
Spread: Bengals (+9.5)


Sunday, November 21, 2010

Week 11 Pick'em

A week off in Omaha, Nebraska made this a shortened version of the picks.  Here are the 1 o'clock kickoffs, check back for the rest at halftime of the first slate of games.

Raiders @ Steelers (-7)
The Raiders need to run the ball to be effective.  The Steelers play great run defence and need to break out of this slump.

Straight Up: Steelers
Spread: Raiders (+7)

Texans @ Jets (-6.5)
The Texans are their usual up and down selves.  The Jets find ways to win and are in a tight battle with the Pats in the AFC East.  They can't afford a letdown.

Straight Up: Jets
Spread: Texans (+6.5)

Ravens @ Panthers (+13.5)
The Panthers are in trouble with the Ravens coming off an extra few days of rest.  Ravens are another team that can't afford to drop this one.

Straight Up: Ravens
Spread: Ravens (-13.5)


Redskins @ Titans (-7)
The Redskins secondary is struggling and they will be in man to man a lot to load the box against CJ.

Straight Up: Titans
Spread: Titans (-7)

Lions @ Cowboys (-5.5)
Last week the Cowboys looked like they could've been in the Super Bowl this year.  Too bad it's too late.

Straight Up: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)

Packers @ Vikings (+3)
I don't really know why except to say that, as a lifetime Favre fan, this might be my last chance to pick him to win.

Straight Up: Vikings
Spread: Vikings (+3)

Bills @ Bengals (-4.5)
Bengals are out, so are the Bills.  Buffalo won't be as hungry now that they removed the goose egg.  Too much talent on the Bengals.

Straight Up: Bengals
Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

Browns @ Jags (-2.5)
The Browns are playing better football than the Jags, who just haven't impressed me despite a 5-4 record.

Straight Up: Browns
Spread: Browns (+2.5)

Cardinals @ Chiefs (-7)
The Chiefs need to rebound after last weeks loss.  Derek Anderson doesn't scare anyone.

Straight Up: Chiefs
Spread: Cardinals (+7)

Seahawks @ Saints (-11)
Saints are at home and need to keep pace with the Falcons.  Seahawks cover.

Straight Up: Saints
Spread: Seahawks (+11)

Falcons @ Rams (+3.5)
Falcons right now are the best team in football.  The Rams are a young team with promise but they aren't in the same league as Atlanta yet.

Straight Up: Falcons
Spread: Falcons

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5)
This should be a great one.  The Bucs are getting little respect (evidence by the 3.5 road dogs) but the Niners are a different team with Troy Smith at QB.  I think the Niners can creep back into the playoff race in the terrible NFC West.

Straight Up: Niners
Spread: Niners (-3.5)

Colts @ Patriots (-4.5)
Best game of the year so far.  I'll split the decision

Straight Up: Patriots
Spread: Colts (+4.5)

Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
Mike Vick was amazing last week.  I expect an encore.  If he doesn't get hurt, I see him as the MVP and the Eagles in the NFC Championship against the Falcons.

Straight Up: Eagles
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

Broncos @ Chargers (-9)
The Chargers are now favoured to win the AFC West in Vegas.  If this game was in Denver I think it might be different.  The Chargers play very well at home and this divisional game can't be overlooked.  Monday night games are typically closer (minus last weeks Vick experience).  The key will be whether or not the Chargers pass rush can get to Orton, if not, they have a very good chance.

Straight Up: Chargers
Spread: Broncos (+9)

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Week 10 Pick'em

Bengals @ Colts (-7)
Colts are in the playoff race at home.  Bengals season is over.

vs Spread: Colts (-7)
Straight Up: Colts

Texans @ Jaguars (pick)
This is the type of game the Texans win to inspire their fans again, then they lose next week.  The Jags have a good D-line but the rest of their team is still in rebuilding mode.

vs Spread: Texans
Straight Up: Texans

Titans @ Dolphins (pick)
Chris Johnson will benefit from the addition of Randy Moss.  Chad Pennington will play smart football but he won't be able to hang with the Titans in explosion plays.

vs Spread: Titans
Straight Up: Titans

Vikings @ Bears (+1)
The Bears are slipping and they nearly blew it last week against the Bills in Toronto.  The Vikings locker room is a circus, but Adrian Peterson is as consistent as gravity.

vs Spread: Vikings (-1)
Straight Up: Vikings

Lions @ Bills (-1)
How the Bills are favoured, I have no idea.  The Lions are 7-1 this year against the spread and if they cover this week? They win.

vs Spread: Lions (+1)
Straight Up: Lions

Jets @ Browns (+3)
This is a tough matchup for the Browns.  The Jets should limit Peyton Hillis and Colt McCoy will struggle with every one of his receivers matched up against a better defensive back.  The Jets need a road win to restore confidence.

vs Spread: Jets (-3)
Straight Up: Jets

Panthers @ Bucs (-7)
I'm not sold on the Bucs but Josh Freeman looks good and they are at home.  Panthers start Mike Goodson at RB and Jimmy Clausen at QB.

vs Spread: Bucs (-7)
Straight Up: Bucs

Chiefs @ Broncos (+1)
Bye week or not, the Broncos can't stop the run.  And the Chiefs are great at running the ball.

vs Spread: Chiefs (-1)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Rams @ Niners (-5)
The Rams have overachieved early.  The Niners have underachieved early.  Time for the balance to be restored.

vs Spread: Niners (-5)
Straight Up: Niners

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-4)
Two teams that are all over the board with how they play on Sunday.  Clipboard Jesus looked more like Judas last week.

vs Spread: Cardinals (-4)
Straight Up: Cardinals

Cowboys @ Giants (-12.5)
Jason Garret has an uphill battle with this team, but a road game and a new coach may be just what the doctor ordered.  Ok, maybe not, but I think it'll be closer.

vs Spread: Cowboys (+12.5)
Straight Up: Cowboys

Patriots @ Steelers (-5)
This should be a dandy.  Steelers ability to run the ball and stop the run is the difference.

vs Spread: Patriots (+5)
Straight Up: Steelers

Eagles @ Redskins (+3)
Mike Vick is one of, if not the most dangerous quarterback in the league.  Donovan McNabb apparently needs to hit the treadmill.

vs Spread: Eagles (-3)
Straight Up: Eagles

Season Straight Up: 72-58
Season vs Spread: 58-65-5

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Thursday Night Pick'em

Ravens @ Falcons (-1)

Great way for NFL Network to kick-off this seasons coverage with a battle of division leaders.  The Falcons are missing Sean Weatherspoon and Roddy White is going to be playing injured.  Even though the Ravens play good defence, I have a feeling we are in for a shootout.  I'd be really going against the odds by betting against Matt Ryan at home (17-1).

vs Spread: Falcons (-1)
Straight Up: Falcons

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Week 9 Pick'em

Bears @ Bills (+3)
The Bills have lost the last two games in overtime, proof that this team is still competing despite its 0-7 record.  Buffalo is ranked last in rush defense allowing 188 yards per game.  Good thing Chicago’s rush offence is no better (27th averaging 88 yards per game).  Buffalo has allowed 15 passing touchdowns and only have one interception this year (early Christmas for Cutler).  
Vs Spread: Bears (-3)
Straight Up: Bears

Chargers @ Texans (+3)
The key here will be the health of Antonio Gates.  If he plays the Chargers should come away with the win.  If not, I just don’t know if there are enough weapons for Phil Rivers to make plays.  I’ll go with the Chargers but check back before kickoff.
Vs Spread: Chargers (-3)
Straight Up: Chargers

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)
The Saints dressed up as their former selves last Sunday for Halloween.  Was it a special occasion or are they getting back into rhythm on offence?  Either way the Panthers give me no reason to expect an upset.
Vs Spread: Saints (-6.5)
Straight Up: Saints

Cardinals @ Vikings (-8)
The Cardinals should have never gotten rid of Matt Leinart.  They have the worst quarterbacks in the league now and even if Favre shows up in a wheelchair, the Vikings will beat the Cardinals.  As always, expect Adrian Peterson to run angry this weekend.
Vs Spread: Vikings (-8)
Straight Up: Vikings

Bucs @ Falcons (-8.5)
The Buc stops here.  Matt Ryan doesn’t lose in the Georgia Dome and the Falcons just have more talent all over the field than the Bucs.  They’ll play the Falcons close, but this game will mark the beginning of Tampa’s second half slide.
Vs Spread: Bucs (+8.5)
Straight Up: Falcons

Jets @ Lions (+4.5)
There are a lot of intriguing matchups in this game.  First and foremost Megatron makes his first visit to Revis Island.  No doubt Revis is a great player, but I expect Calvin to take this opportunity to show everyone just how good he is.  The Lions are 6-1 against the spread this year.  Jets receivers considerably outmatch the Lions Secondary.
Vs Spread: Lions (+4.5)
Straight Up: Jets

Dolphins @ Ravens (-5)
The Dolphins are undefeated on the road so far this season but they are travelling to Baltimore, a notoriously tough place to play.  The addition of Ed Reed is huge to the Ravens and I’ll be on him over Chad Henne.
Vs Spread: Dolphins (+5)
Straight Up: Ravens

Patriots @ Browns (+4.5)
Some analysts have mentioned that Eric Mangini’s knowledge of the Patriots will help him in this game.  I’d argue Bill Belichick’s knowledge of Eric Mangini is a bigger advantage.  The Patriots rarely underestimate teams and they know they need to stay ahead of the Jets and Dolphins.
Vs Spread: Patriots (-4.5)

Giants @ Seahawks (+7)
The Seahawks play much better football at home and their secondary is playing extremely well.  Earl Thomas may be the x-factor in this game.  I expect the Giants to win, but the Seahawks should cover a touchdown.
Vs Spread: Seahawks (+7)
Straight Up: Giants

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1)
Both teams run the football extremely well (1 and 2 in the NFL).  The Chiefs stop the run, the Raiders don’t.  I also think the Chiefs coaching staff is stronger than the Raiders (not physically, settle down Cable).  
Vs Spread: Chiefs (+1)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Colts @ Eagles (-3)
Mike Vick returns, but he faces a stiff challenge.  Say what you want about the Colts defense, but they are FAST.  Don’t expect Vick to have many big runs.  Peyton Manning came in at #8 in NFL Network’s countdown of the top 100 players of all time.  Ya, I’ll go with him.
Vs Spread: Colts (+3)
Straight Up: Colts

Cowboys @ Packers (-7)
It’s too bad because before the season this looked like a great Sunday nighter.  The Cowboys were pathetic last week against the Jaguars and that was at home.  Maybe the fact that they are on the road and are out of the playoff hunt will let them play loose.  That should’ve been the case last week against a much weaker Jags team.
Vs Spread: Packers (-7)
Straight Up: Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+5)
This is a must-win game for the Bengals if they want to salvage the season.  For the first time this season, the Steelers looked average last Sunday night in New Orleans.  I think they’ll rebound in this hard-hitting affair.
Vs Spread: Bengals (+5)
Straight Up: Steelers

Season Straight Up: 62-55
Season vs Spread: 51-59-5

Friday, November 5, 2010

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
The Steelers are the most complete football team in the NFL.  They are top 3 on defence, run the ball extremely well and Big Ben makes big plays in the passing game.  As the weather gets colder, their formula of running and playing defence becomes more and more effective.

2.  New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots seem to have the tunnel vision that led them to all those titles during the dynasty years.  Trading their most productive receiver didn't even cause a hiccup and Deion Branch is proving to be one of the best acquisitions of the year.  The Pats get one of the best guards in football (Logan Mankins) back this week and their schedule down the stretch isn't exactly difficult.

3.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Despite suffering a rash of injuries to some very key players, Manning has the Colts sitting alone atop the AFC South.  Losing Dallas Clark for the year was critical, but if they can even get a few guys back healthy by the end of the year, this team will be threatening in the playoffs.  In all likelihood Peyton Manning will be the NFL MVP...again.

4.  Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise this year and a playoff berth would certainly solidify that.  The Raiders could contend in the division, but the Chiefs have an easier schedule down the home stretch.  they are running the ball extremely well and Jamaal Charles will be healthy and fresh due to his limited carries thus far.

5.  New York Jets (11-5)
The Jets offence stalled last week against the Green Bay Packers which is a bit of a concern considering the amount of weapons they have.  This team runs the ball and plays defence well enough to get them into the playoffs but if they want to go any further, it will come down to Mark Sanchez.

6.  Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
The Ravens got Ed Reed back at the perfect time.  He should shore up a weak secondary and let the front seven focus more on stopping the run.  Flacco has been inconsistent this season but he should play well enough to get them into the elimination round.

NFC

1.  Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
The Falcons have one of the easiest schedules for the remainder of the season and they understand how important home-field advantage will be for their Super Bowl aspirations.  Matt Ryan is 16-1 as a starter at home.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Michael Vick has been outstanding when healthy this season and he is 100% coming off the bye week.  DeSean Jackson is set to return soon and the defence is playing well enough to allow this team to snatch up the division title.

3.  Green Bay Packers (10-6)
The Packers have had an up and down start to the season but they may be hitting stride at the right time.  Clay Matthews is healthy and has been a force to be reckoned with.  Rodgers is one of the better quarterbacks in the league and their offensive line has played exceptional.  Two burning questions: can they run the ball when they need to with Brandon Jackson and are the injuries along the D-line too much to overcome?

4.  Seattle (8-8)
Someone has to win this division, why not the Seahawks.  The Rams could easily be in this spot as well but I think the difference is the Seahawks play tougher at home and the weather in the North West plays to their strengths.

5.  New York Giants (10-6)
The Giants will be in the divisional fight until the final weekend, but ultimately I see them grabbing the #1 wildcard spot.  Hakeem Nicks has been spectacular this season and Eli Manning has an arsenal of weapons on offence.  The defence is improving week to week and Osie Umenyiora is a candidate for defensive player of the year.

6.  Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
Ok, hear me out.  The teams they have lost to this season are a combined 25-12 and four of their five losses have come on the road.  The combined records of opponents for the rest of the season is 31-34 and they play 5 of their next 7 at home.  They need to run the ball with Adrian Peterson and their defensive line needs to finally show up, but Arizona may be the perfect medicine for this struggling team.  If the Saints go 9-7, they could suffer from the head-to-head loss.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Halftime Awards

As we reach the midway point of the NFL season, it is time to handout the Redzone awards for the first half of the season.
MVP - Peyton Manning
The incumbent winner is back at the top spot again and should tie Brett Favre for consecutive MVP’s with 3.  You can argue that he has won this award too much and we should give someone else a chance, but you can’t argue that he is the unquestioned MVP of his team and the NFL.  In just seven games, Manning has thrown 15 TD’s to only 2 interceptions.  He has given up the least amount of sacks, which is a testament to his ability to feel pressure and get rid of the football.  The Colts are 5-2 despite a rash of injuries.  Proof enough is that if Austin Collie, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullit all were healthy but Manning was not, this team is likely 2-5 at best.  
In the Hunt – Tom Brady and Matt Ryan
Again, no surprise that Tom is in the hunt.  His ratio of 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions is solid and as usual he has the Patriots sitting atop the AFC at 6-1.  If he can lead the Pats to the best record in the AFC, it will once again become the argument between stats and wins.  
Matt Ryan is 16-1 at home in his career.  If this team can secure home field advantage in the playoffs, look out.  His stats are not as impressive as some of the other QB’s in the league, but a 12:5 ratio of TD’s to picks is solid.  The Falcons are 5-2.  If he continues his strong play and gets the Falcons anywhere North of 11-5, he’s in the discussion.
Dark horse: Mike Vick, Vince Young
Before his injury, Vick was the MVP of the league.  In 3.5 games he has passed for 800 yards, thrown 6 touchdowns with no interceptions, and has rushed for 187 yards and a TD.  The injury has set him back, but if he returns to the same form for the rest of the year, he could make a push.  Vince Young is another guy who has had injuries slow him down this season.  He does have the highest QB rating in the NFL right now though.  The big question is can he stay healthy?
Need wins: Phil Rivers
If somehow Phil Rivers can get the Chargers into the playoffs, he should definitely be a candidate for MVP.  For all the talk of Favre, Cutler and Rodgers throwing downfield, Rivers dwarfs them by averaging a whopping 8.66 yards per attempt.  That is well higher than anyone else in the league.  He also leads the league in passing yards per game with 331.  He may not get there this year, but Rivers is one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the NFL, year in and year out.  


Defensive Player of the Year - Osie Umenyiora


Umenyiora is second in the NFL in sacks with 8, trailing Clay Matthews (9.5).  Here's the difference: Umenyiora has forced seven fumbles.  He has mastered the sack fumble which means that instead of dropping quarterbacks for a big loss, he generates turnovers.  Winning in today's NFL is done by creating turnovers and holding onto the ball.  Osie accomplishes the turnover part.


In the hunt - Lawrence Timmons, DeAngelo Hall, Clay Matthews


If Polamalu is Butch Cassidy, then Timmons is the Sundance Kid.  He may not be the leader of the Steelers' D, but he is the reason they rank near the top in all defensive categories this season.  He is 4th in the NFL in tackles with 74, has 3 sacks and an interception.  DeAngelo Hall has great stats, although they were inflated by Jay Cutler in one game.  That being said, he is tied for 13th in the league in tackles (a very impressive feat for a corner), to go along with his league leading 6 interceptions (4 vs Cutler).  Had Matthews not missed time due to the hamstring injury he would likely be the leading candidate at this point.  Nonetheless, if he can stay healthy, he will be getting votes come January.  

Rookie of the Year Offense – Sam Bradford
There are a lot of great candidates for this award in 2010.  Unfortunately for them, it has already been awarded to Sam Bradford.  He has thrown more touchdowns (11) than interceptions (8) and more importantly has the Rams in the playoff race.  Wait what?  Is that the same Rams that were 1-15 last season?  Pretty much, and the fact that he has them playing .500 football is outstanding.
Runner-ups - Mike Williams and Dez Bryant
Mike Williams slid in the draft due to character concerns but the Bucs and Josh Freeman must be thrilled they took a chance on him in the fourth round.  Greg Jennings has one more yard and one more touchdown than Williams at this point in the season.  Williams’ play is a big reason the Bucs are 5-2.  
Despite the horror show going on in Dallas, Jerry Jones must be thrilled that he didn’t pass on Bryant like he did Randy Moss.  In an offence with many options, Bryant is on pace for 60 catches, 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.  He also has 2 punt return touchdowns on only 12 returns.  

Rookie of the Year Defense – Ndamukong Suh
I did some searching through the NFL chronicles and I’m fairly certain this would be the first time ever the #1 and #2 overall picks in the draft where the offensive and defensive rookies of the year.  Suh is a beast.  No stats are needed to describe how dominant he has been this season.  His initial surge is unmatched and if you haven’t seen him play this year, tune in on Sunday and focus in on #90.  Ok fine, the fact that he is on pace for 13 sacks, 2 interceptions and 2 touchdowns can’t hurt.
In the Hunt – Earl Thomas 
Earl Thomas leads his team in solo tackles and is tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions.  He is a ball-hawk in every sense of the word and his man to man cover skills are as good as at least half the corners in the NFL.

Comeback Player of the Year – Michael Vick
Even if you can’t forgive him, you have to admire the way he took ownership for a terrible crime and has come back and done all the right things.  He has been gracious for getting a second chance, hasn’t complained at all about playing time and has tried his best to turn his life around.  All while playing arguably the best football of his career.