Monday, August 16, 2010

The Key to 3-4 vs 4-3: Recognize the Equilibrium

Throughout the history of football, coaches have developed new schemes, formations and philosophies to try and give their team a competitive edge. As every football fan has heard, the NFL is a ‘copycat’ league and when teams have success doing things a certain way, it is not long before other teams begin to implement aspects of their playbook. For evidence, look at how popular Bill Walsh’s 49ers made the west coast offence or how many teams adapted the Dolphins wildcat formation last season. As opposing offences change, defensive coordinators alter their own schemes to ensure that they matchup better. It’s an ongoing game of cat and mouse.


In the 1990’s the most common defense was the 4-3 and only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills ran the 3-4.  When Bill Belichick took over in New England he implemented the 3-4, which he ran as the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants when they won Super Bowls in 1986 and ’90. The Patriots and Steelers won five of the last 10 Super Bowls with dominant defense and other teams took notice. Over the last five years there has been a mass exodus away from the 4-3 and toward the 3-4. Analysts and sports writers were quick to describe the 3-4 as the ‘optimal’ defense to matchup against today’s pass heavy offenses. As football fans watched Peyton Manning consistently struggle against the Patriots defense, many began to believe that having an extra linebacker made it harder for quarterbacks to read the coverage and identify blitzes. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at some factors that often go overlooked.


First off it is important to understand that the personnel required for either defense are very different. Below is a chart that lists the average weight of NFL starters at their respective position.
 
Weight in Pounds of Average NFL Starter




What this table makes very clear is that a different type of personnel is required for each of these defenses. In a 4-3, outside linebackers are required to cover a larger area of the field in run support and drop into pass coverage more often than those in the 3-4. Therefore, these players are on average 17 pounds lighter. 3-4 outside linebackers spend more time rushing the passer and therefore are heavier to aid them in their matchups with offensive linemen around the line of scrimmage.

Defensive linemen in the 3-4 are given the job of eating up space. Their goal is to occupy offensive linemen so that their linebackers can roam free and make plays. In a 4-3 defensive linemen have different responsibilities. The defensive ends are the primary pass rushers (OLB are in a 3-4) and therefore they must be quicker than 3-4 ends. The two defensive tackles in a 4-3 have different responsibilities. The 1-technique (lines up closest to the centre) is typically more of a run stopper and is heavier than the 3-technique, whose job is to penetrate the offensive line and cause disruption in the backfield. It is no surprise, based on their very different job requirements, that 3-4 defensive linemen outweigh 4-3 d-linemen by roughly 23 pounds on average.

Let's look at a few players to prove the aforementioned job descriptions.  Over the last decade, Richard Seymour and Julius Peppers have to be considered two of the best defensive ends in the NFL.  Seymour played DE in the 3-4 and Peppers in the 4-3.  In 8 seasons, Peppers has amassed 81 sacks, whereas Seymour has only 43 sacks in 9 seasons.  Even though he has roughly half the sacks, Seymour plays his role better than most (taking on blockers and turning himself into an imovable force at the line of scrimmage).  Still not convinced?  How about the interior linemen?

Ask anyone who knows something about the NFL and they will tell youthat Kevin Williams and Vince Wilfork are two of the games best interior defenders.  Williams plays DT (3-technique) in the Vikings 4-3 defence, whereas Wilfork plays NT in the Patriots 3-4 scheme.  In 6 seasons Wilfork has only 7.5 sacks.  In 7 seasons, Williams has 48.5 sacks.  Again, Wilfork is simply doing his job as a space eater and shouldn't be evaluated on sack production the way Williams is. 

Now that we are clear on the differences regarding personnel, let’s look at how teams acquire players and what impact this has on the success of each scheme.

The primary infusion of talent into the NFL comes ever year via the Draft. The vast majority of players drafted come from the NCAA which represents the talent pool for future NFL talent. The college ranks are full of players of all different sizes who have various skill sets. Regardless of what schemes NFL teams are running, the talent pool in the NCAA is relatively constant. At the start of the decade, when only a few teams were running the 3-4, the demand for a certain breeds of player was fairly low. For example, nose tackles that weighed over 330 pounds with limited mobility were passed over by most teams running the 4-3 because they didn’t ‘fit the scheme’. In essence it’s a numbers game. With 30 teams fighting over one type of personnel, and only 2 teams fighting over the other, it is no surprise that the 2 teams in the minority are going to stockpile talent.


A perfect example of a guy who may have slipped through the cracks is Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil is 5’11 and weighs 250lbs. Scouts for 4-3 teams would say he’s undersized to play defensive end and his height would indicate that his arms are too short. At the combine he ran a 4.78 which isn’t slow, but makes him too slow to play linebacker in a 4-3. For a 3-4 team like Denver, he is the perfect mold for an OLB and has proved this over the last few seasons. There are many more cases like Dumervil: Would Dwight Freeney be effective in a 3-4? Would Demarcus Ware be the menace he is if he played a traditional end position?

As I mentioned earlier, sports writers were quick to anoint the 3-4 as the optimal defence in today’s NFL after seeing how much opposing quarterbacks struggled against the Patriots and Steelers. As an ex-quarterback, I can tell you it is not more difficult based on the way they line up. It is more difficult because you spend less time preparing to play against that alignment. When the Colts would play the Patriots and Steelers once a year, they only spent 2 out of 16 weeks watching film and studying up on the 3-4.  This also meant the offensive line wasn't used to picking up the various rushers that come from 3-4 linebackers.  It was foreign to them and that is why it was so successful.

As more and more teams switch to the 3-4, the balance will be restored. Quarterbacks are already becoming as comfortable playing against the 3-4 as the 4-3 and the drafting/personnel benefits regarding the static talent pool will be negated in equilibrium (when an equal number of teams run the 3-4 and 4-3). However, if the pendulum swings the other way, and the majority of NFL teams run 3-4 defences, don’t be surprised if 4-3 defences begin to reign supreme. As unconventional as it may seem, perhaps coming up with a brand new scheme that requires its own specific personnel group would be worth considering…if someone out there is brave enough to test it…