Things You'll Learn and Things You Won't From the Combine

1. The Quarterback debate will not change materially 

Expect Cam Newton to be the talk of the combine based on how well he will test physically.  His height, weight, speed and arm strength will be talked about at great length, but unless you’ve been living under a rock since September, you know he possesses all of these tools.  The big hurdle for Newton will be how he handles the personal interviews, the wonderlic test and all of the scrutiny over the next two months.  Blaine Gabbert is not throwing at the combine which I think is a huge mistake.  If he is hurt then it makes sense, but barring injury he should be throwing.  Nonetheless his stock won’t move much.  The two guys I think can gain the most are Ryan Mallet and Jake Locker.  If Mallet can dominate the interview process, he could jump Gabbert and if Locker can show improved accuracy, he could also improve his stock.  

             2.     The real change of pace backs will emerge

With the number of backfield committees on the rise in the NFL, teams will target speed backs as early as the 2^nd round.  We saw this last year with Dexter McCluster.  Guys who light the turf on fire will find themselves moving up a lot of teams’ draft boards, while the ones who don’t may end up as undrafted free-agents.  A guy I like to make some noise is Noel Divine.  His numbers have gone down as the talent around him has deteriorated, but he still has elite speed and great hands out of the backfield.  

             3.     There will be a lot of jockeying amongst the corners

If I’m confident in one thing this week it’s that Patrick Peterson will cement himself as the #1 ranked corner in the draft and a surefire top 5 pick.  While I still believe Prince Amukamara is the next best corner in the draft, he could see the gap between him and the rest of the field tighten if he fails to post a good 40-time.  Jimmy Smith, Aaron Williams and Brandon Harris are all lumped together.  A strong performance by any of these three could move them into the middle of the first round.

             4.     Von Miller will move into the top 5 of some mock drafts, even though he won’t be picked there

The hype around Von Miller reminds me of Vernon Gholston.  Ask Jets fans how that turned out.  Don’t get me wrong, I think Miller will be a good-to-great player in the NFL and likely will go in the first twelve to fifteen picks.  He will not go in the top 5.  There simply isn’t enough value to take him that high, especially when there are prospects who grade out higher than him at more logical positions.  Nonetheless he will blow up the combine and the hype train will continue rolling, right up until draft day. 

Which Division is Really the NFL's Best?

Every year analysts and fans alike engage in the debate regarding which division is the NFL’s best.  A little while ago a friend of mine gave me the idea to create divisional all-star teams to resolve, or perhaps fuel this debate further.  If nothing else I figured it would provide readers with some entertainment as we enter the hibernation period of the NFL season..  For the sake of argument, I listed personnel for both the 4-3 and 3-4, added a slot receiver on offence, and assumed some position changes with linebackers and linemen as I saw beneficial.  I also simulated seasons with these 8 teams in Madden 2011 (results at the bottom).

Let’s start with the Super Bowl Champions division…

NFC North

QB	Aaron Rodgers	DE	Jared Allen
RB	Adrian Peterson	DT	Kevin Williams
RB	Matt Forte	DT	Ndamukong Suh
WR	Calvin Johnson	DE	Julius Peppers
WR	Greg Jennings	OLB	Clay Matthews
WR	Percy Harvin	MLB	Brian Urlacher
TE	Jermichael Finley	MLB	EJ Henderson
LT	Chad Clifton	OLB	Chad Greenway
LG	Steve Hutchinson	CB	Charles Woodson
C	John Sullivan	CB	Tramon Williams
RG	Daryn Colledge	FS	Nick Collins
RT	Bryant McKinnie	SS	Louis Delmas

The NFC North team is tied with the AFC South for the best skilled position players.  For as well as Aaron Rodgers played in the final months of the season, imagine what he could do with Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson added to his arsenal.  In my opinion, the North also has the best D-line in the NFL.  

NFC East

QB	Michael Vick	DE	Justin Tuck
RB	LeSean McCoy	DT	Jay Ratliff
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	DT	Albert Haynesworth
WR	DeSean Jackson	DE	Osie Umenyiora
WR	Hakeem Nicks	OLB	Demarcus Ware
WR	Miles Austin	MLB	London Fletcher
TE	Jason Witten	MLB	Keith Brooking
LT	Jason Peters	OLB	Ernie Sims
LG	Todd Herremans	CB	Asante Samuel
C	Andre Gurode	CB	DeAngelo Hall
RG	Chris Snee	FS	Antrel Rolle
RT	Trent Williams	SS	Laron Landry

The East is solid everywhere, but doesn’t dominate at any specific position group.  I struggled with the addition of Haynesworth because of how much of a distraction and disappointment he has been this year, but he still has elite talent and playing on a team like this might satisfy his childlike temper.  Vick would keep this team in games regardless.

NFC South

QB	Drew Brees	DE	John Abraham
RB	Michael Turner	DT	Gerald McCoy
RB	LeGarette Blount	DT	Sedrick Ellis
WR	Roddy White	DE	Will Smith
WR	Marques Colston	OLB	Jonathan Vilma
WR	Mike Williams	MLB	Barrett Ruud
TE	Tony Gonzalez	MLB	Curtis Lofton
LT	Donald Penn	OLB	Sean Weatherspoon
LG	Carl Nicks	CB	Brent Grimes
C	Ryan Kalil	CB	Aqib Talib
RG	Jahri Evans	FS	Malcolm Jenkins
RT	Jordan Gross	SS	Roman Harper

Surprisingly, compared to the other divisions, the South looks a bit weak.  No area of their defense looks menacing, which is saying something for an all-star team.  They have a stellar offensive line and with big backs in Turner and Blount, could run the ball effectively.

NFC West

QB	Sam Bradford	DE	Chris Long
RB	Stephen Jackson	DT	Justin Smith
RB	Frank Gore	DT	Isaac Supogoa
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	DE	Darnell Docket
WR	Michael Crabtree	OLB	Joey Porter
WR	Mike Williams	MLB	Patrick Willis
TE	Vernon Davis	MLB	James Laurinaitis
LT	Russell Okung	OLB	Aaron Curry
LG	Mike Iupati	CB	Nate Clements
C	Jason Brown	CB	Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie
RG	Alan Faneca	FS	Earl Thomas
RT	Joe Staley	SS	Adrian Wilson

The West was ridiculed all year for being the weakest division in the NFL.  It got to the point where analysts were debating whether or not the division winner should get a home playoff game.  Well this team represents the incredible young talent this division has to offer.  The middle of the defense is stellar with Patrick Willis and James Laurinaitis and Sam Bradford would certainly be a force with these weapons around him.

AFC North

QB	Ben Roethlisberger	DE	Haloti Ngata
RB	Rashard Mendenhall	DT	Casey Hampton
RB	Ray Rice	DT	Shaun Rodgers
WR	Mike Wallace	DE	Aaron Smith
WR	Anquan Boldin	OLB	LaMarr Woodley
WR	Jordan Shipley	MLB	Ray Lewis
TE	Heath Miller	MLB	Lawrence Timmons
LT	Joe Thomas	OLB	James Harrison
LG	Ben Grubbs	CB	Jonathan Joseph
C	Alex Mack	CB	Joe Haden
RG	Maurkice Pouncey	FS	Ed Reed
RT	Michael Oher	SS	Troy Polamalu

The AFC North puts together the best team in the NFL.  They boast undoubtedly the best offensive line and front seven, and it doesn’t hurt having Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu roaming the back-end.  The madden simulation confirmed the North as the NFL’s best.

AFC East

QB	Tom Brady	DE	Randy Starks
RB	LaDanian Tomlinson	DT	Vince Wilfork
RB	Fred Jackson	DT	Shaun Ellis
WR	Brandon Marshall	DE	Aaron Schobel
WR	Santonio Holmes	OLB	Cameron Wake
WR	Wes Welker	MLB	Jerod Mayo
TE	Rob Gronkowski	MLB	David Harris
LT	Jake Long	OLB	Chris Kelsay
LG	Logan Mankins	CB	Darrelle Revis
C	Nick Mangold	CB	Devon McCourty
RG	Eric Wood	FS	Jairus Byrd
RT	D’Brickashaw Ferguson	SS	Brandon Merriweather

For as good as this division is, they really lack an elite running back.  The offensive line is a close second to the AFC North and with Tom Brady at the helm, this team will disguise its running back woes.  The secondary is extremely solid, and young.  

AFC South

QB	Peyton Manning	DE	Dwight Freeney
RB	Chris Johnson	DT	Terrance Knighton
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	DT	Tyson Alualu
WR	Andre Johnson	DE	Mario Williams
WR	Reggie Wayne	OLB	Brian Cushing
WR	Austin Collie	MLB	Stephen Tulloch
TE	Dallas Clark	MLB	Demeco Ryans
LT	Michael Roos	OLB	Will Witherspoon
LG	Vince Manuwai	CB	Cortland Finnegan
C	Jeff Saturday	CB	Rashean Mathis
RG	Jake Scott	FS	Antoine Bethea
RT	Eugene Monroe	SS	Michael Griffin

The South is tied with the NFC North for best offensive skilled positions.  It’s the Colts offence with the addition of the Johnsons (Chris/Andre) and Mojo.  Aside from the D-line, the defense is average at best for a division all-star squad.

AFC West

QB	Phil Rivers	DE	Tyson Jackson
RB	Jamaal Charles	DT	Glenn Dorsey
RB	Darren McFadden	DT	Richard Seymour
WR	Brandon Lloyd	DE	Luis Castillo
WR	Dwayne Bowe	OLB	Tamba Hali
WR	Vincent Jackson	MLB	DJ Williams
TE	Antonio Gates	MLB	Derrick Johnson
LT	Ryan Clady	OLB	Elvis Dumervil
LG	Robert Gallery	CB	Nnamdi Asomugha
C	Nick Hardwick	CB	Champ Bailey
RG	Ryan Lilja	FS	Eric Berry
RT	Marcus McNeil	SS	Tyvonn Branch

In 2010, it didn’t seem to matter who Phil Rivers was throwing the ball to, so I have a feeling it couldn’t hurt to throw to this star-studded cast of receivers.  I gave the West the best secondary in the league, largely due to the fact that Branch is the best tackling safety in the league and Bailey/Asomugha can lock down anyone.  There’s been talk of Bailey moving to FS next season to prolong his career.  Brandon Flowers would replace him in that case.

And now for the results.  After simulating the 2011 season 50 times with these teams, the AFC North came out on top, winning the Super Bowl 22% of the time.  Oddly enough, a different team came away with one Super Bowl win (quarterbacked by Brett Favre).

Team	Super Bowls	%
NFC North	8	16%
NFC East	3	6%
NFC South	4	8%
NFC West	2	4%
AFC North	11	22%
AFC East	7	14%
AFC South	9	18%
AFC West	5	10%
*Other	1	2%