Week 16 Pick'em

Lions @ Dolphins (-3.5)
Dolphins are out and the Lions are coming on strong.

vs Spread: Lions (+3.5)
Straight Up: Lions

Washington @ Jacksonville (-7)
No MJD?  I like the Skins to cover.

vs Spread: Skins (+7)
Straight Up: Jags

Niners @ Rams (-2.5)
Bradford and the Rams play well at home.  Time to put the Niners out of their misery.

vs Spread: Rams (-2.5)
Straight Up: Rams

Patriots @ Bills (+7.5)
Bills are playing inspired ball and I like them to cover.

vs Spread: Bills (+7.5)
Straight Up: Patriots

Jets @ Bears (-2.5)
Statement game for both teams.

vs Spread: Bears (-2.5)
Straight Up: Bears

Ravens @ Browns (+2.5)
Ravens need this much more than the Browns.

vs Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Straight Up: Ravens

Titans @ Chiefs (-4.5)
Chiefs need to keep on winning.

vs Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Week 15 Pick'em

Chiefs @ Rams (-3)
Matt Cassel will be in the starting lineup and the team that runs the ball more effectively today should come out victorious.  This is a must win game for both teams playoff hopes because the Chargers are surging and the Rams are in the thick of things in the subpar NFC West.

Straight Up: Chiefs
vs Spread: Chiefs (+3)

Texans @ Titans (-1)
Matt Schaub's OT interception last Monday was one of the worst QB decisions I've ever seen.  Pump faking at the same receiver that you throw towards off your backfoot only seconds later?  Shockingly bad after how well he played in the second half.  The Titans don't have the offence to match though.

Straight Up: Texans
vs Spread: Texans (+1)

Jaguars @ Colts (-4.5)
The Colts aren't used to being in this situation, nor is this young Jags team.  The Colts and Manning are a different beast in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Straight Up: Colts
vs Spread: Colts (-4.5)

Cardinals @ Panthers (-2.5)
Wait, a team with one win is favoured against a team with 4 wins?  C'mon man.

Straight Up: Cardinals
vs Spread: Cardinals (+2.5)

Browns @ Bengals (pick)
The battle of Ohio is between a team that is overachieving and one that is underachieving.  I'll take the home team in a coin flip.

Straight Up: Bengals
vs Spread: Bengals

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)
I give respect to the Bills for not folding and playing tough football lately.  It is a sign that Chain Gailey has command of the locker room.  The Fins are still in the wildcard race and should win a close one at home.

Straight Up: Dolphins
vs Spread: Bills (+5.5)

Eagles @ Giants (-3)
The Giants pass rush is a tough matchup for Vick.  The big key is going to be if the Eagles D can stop the Giants run game.  All the signs point to the Giants.  They are at home.  They run the ball very well.  But I have blind faith in #7.

Straight Up: Eagles
vs Spread: Eagles (+3)

Redskins @ Cowboys (-9.5)
The Rex Grossman Era may begin in Washington today.  The Cowboys are scoring at will, but are without Dez Bryant and Roy Williams today.

Straight Up: Cowboys
vs Spread: Redskins (+9.5)

Lions @ Bucs (-4)
The Bucs are for real and a home game against the Lions is a must win at this point in the season.

Straight Up: Bucs
vs Spread: Bucs (-4)

Saints @ Ravents (-2.5)
The Ravens secondary got exposed last Monday, and Drew Brees is playing extremely well as of late.

Straight Up: Saints
vs Spread: Saints (+2.5)

Falcons @ Seahawks (+6)
Michael Turner will touch the ball 30 times today if the conditions in Seattle are bad.  The Seahawks are as bad as the conditions should be.

Straight Up: Falcons
vs Spread: Falcons (-6)

Jets @ Steelers (-4)
The Jets have dropped their last 2 and have a very tough matchup in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers D is great at home and Sanchez has struggled lately.

Straight Up: Steelers
vs Spread:  Steelers (-4)

Broncos @ Raiders (-8)
It's Tebow time in Denver.  I think it's too early and I hope this doesn't derail Tebow's career but I expect him to struggle today.  I really hope he doesn't though.

Straight Up: Raiders
vs Spread: Raiders (-8)

Packers @ Patriots (-14.5)
The Packers are without Aaron Rodgers and will start Matt Flynn at Quarterback.  The Packers have their backs against the wall and everyone is writing them off tonight.  I expect the team to rally around Flynn and keep it closer than the spread, but they don't beat the Pats at home.

Straight Up: Patriots
vs Spread: Packers (+14.5)

Season Straight Up: 119-85
Season vs Spread: 88-110-6

Thursday Night Pick'em

Niners @ Chargers (-10)
The Niners are without their best player Patrick Willis.  Alex Smith played well last week but the Chargers are a different beast at home and, aside from the hiccup against the Raiders, have been playing exceptional football lately.

vs Spread: Chargers (-10)
Straight Up: Chargers

AFC REDZONE TEAM

It's that time of year.  Pro Bowl voting is well underway and with three games to go, the players have stated their case for the 2010 campaign.  The Redzone team is NOT my Pro Bowl picks, but rather the guys on offence or defence that I wan't lining up for me going into the 2010/11 NFL playoffs.

Starting Quarterback - Tom Brady

He has a quarterback rating of 109.9, has his team leading the AFC with a record of 11-2 and hasn't thrown an interception since October 17th.  How many people thought Brady's play would improve after the Patriots released Randy Moss?  In the words of John Gruden, 'he put on clinics against teams you're not supposed to be able to do that to' (Jets, Steelers, Bears).  He is the clearcut MVP of 2010 and with home games likely throughout the playoffs, it's hard to make an argument as to why they won't be in the Super Bowl.  

Backup Quarterbacks - Peyton Manning/Phil Rivers

Both these guys are the sole reason their teams are in the playoff hunt.  Manning has received a lot of criticism lately for his string of poor performances leading up to the Titans game.  Apparently when Peyton throws 4 interceptions, he also throws for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He has been missing some of his best playmakers for most of the season and has still put up solid numbers.  Rivers has also been missing Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates has been banged up.  Oh, and these guys have absolutely zero running game to help them out.

Starting Running Back - Arian Foster

Leads the NFL in rushing (1,330), yards from scrimmage (1,834) and rushing touchdowns (13).  It really is a mystery as to why the Texans are not accumulating more wins with him in the backfield along with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.  The offence doesn't seem to be the problem, and Foster is a big reason why.  He is a big, physical back with great receiving ability and doesn't have to come off the field on 3rd down.

Backup Running Backs - Jamaal Charles/Maurice Jones-Drew

Charles might have been the starter if the Chiefs gave him more carries.  He is averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per carry and is also a big receiving threat out of the backfield.  Limiting his carries just might payoff if the Chiefs get into the playoffs because a well rested Charles could be extremely dangerous.  Mojo doesn't have a high average or a ton of touchdowns but he is the reason the Jags are in first place in the AFC south and is 2nd only to Foster in rushing yards.

Starting Wide Receivers - Reggie Wayne/Andre Johnson

A couple of boys from the U.  Reggie Wayne has been the one constant for Peyton Manning and has managed to thrive even facing double coverage.  Another guy who always faces double coverage is Andre Johnson, who has put up great numbers on a seriously injured ankle for most of the year.  

Backup Wide Receivers - Dwayne Bowe/Brandon Lloyd

Bowe doesn't have a ton of catches but considering this blog is called Redzone, he may be the MVP.  Bowe leads the league in receiving touchdowns (14) and is a monster in the redzone.  I was tempted to put Terrell Owens in here ahead of Lloyd because I believe his success is more a product of McDaniels system, but his stats are too good to deny him here.  

Starting Fullback - Lawrence Vickers

I'm sure Mike Tolbert will be in the Pro Bowl because he got so many carries this year but I'm picking my fullback based on what the position truly is.  A menacing blocker who paves the way for his ball carrier.  Peyton Hillis has been a monster this year but if you throw on the film, you frequently see him running over safeties.  That's because Vickers is busy pancaking the linebackers.

Starting Tight End - Antonio Gates

This is a no brainer.  Despite battling injuries all season, Gates is having a great year and has done so drawing triple coverage at times.

Backup Tight End - Marcedes Lewis

Lewis has put up similar numbers to other AFC Tight Ends but distances himself in the redzone registering 9 touchdowns.

Starting Tackles - Michael Oher/Joe Thomas

These two monsters are the cream of the crop and have the majority of their careers ahead of them.  They are a rare breed that excel in both pass protection and run blocking.  

Backup Tackle - Matt Light

Ryan Clady could be put in here based on name alone but Light has done a great job protecting Brady's blindside and keeping him upright has resulted in great things for the Pats.  He isn't great in the run game but he doesn't need to be a bulldozer in the Patriots offensive scheme. 

Starting Guards - Ben Grubbs/Ryan Lilja

Lilja has been great in his first season in Kansas City.  The Chiefs run game has been great this season and his ability to pull and make contact with linebackers is second to none.  Grubbs is a big, physical, in-line blocker who is shockingly agile in pass protection.  Had Logan Mankins not sat out most of the year, he would've been a lock based on how he has played lately.

Backup Guard - The Bills boys

Eric Wood and Andy Levitre have played exceptional this year despite the Bills brutal record.  Wood battled injuries as a rookie in 2009 and has come back and, along with Levitre, has established himself as a leader on the offensive line.  There isn't a lot to be optimistic about in Buffalo, but these two guys help.

Starting Centre - Nick Mangold

Mangold was by far the best centre in the league last season, but this year the gap wasn't as significant.  Guys like Maurkice Pouncey and Alex Mack have closed the gap, but Mangold still is the prototype NFL centre and his intelligence is a huge asset. 

Backup Centre - Alex Mack

Alex Mack was a highly touted draft pick last year and has lived up to the billing.  The browns have a great young O-line with him and Joe Thomas as the anchors. 

Starting Defensive Ends - Mario Williams/Dwight Freeney

Super Mario hasn't had an amazing year by his standards but is still a menace to deal with.  If the Texans can learn how to cover receivers, Williams will put up better numbers.  Teammate Robert Mathis has 0.5 more sacks, but Freeney is the more dangerous player off the edge.  

Backup Defensive End - Robert Mathis

Like Freeney, Mathis is extremely explosive and, although undersized, is one of the best pass rushers in the league.

Starting Defensive Tackles - Haloti Ngata/Vince Wilfork

Ngata and Wilfork are probably the two most powerful players in the NFL.  Wilfork is the ultimate space-eater and is instrumental the success of the Patriots 3-4 scheme.  Ngata, like Wilfork, demands a double team and physically dominates his opponents.  

Backup Defensive Tackle - Terrance Knighton

Knighton's emergence last season made John Henderson expendable.  He has continued to grow and is an outstanding run-stopper.  Him and rookie Tyson Alualu will control the middle of the Jags defence for years to come.

Starting Outside Linebackers - Cameron Wake/James Harrison

Wake is leading the NFL in sacks (14) and is very similar to Freeney in terms of explosiveness.  This guy is a physical freak whose dominance in the CFL translated to the NFL better than most.  Harrison, a former defensive MVP, has been fined a bunch this year for 'illegal' hits.  While only half of these hits should've drawn fines, he sets the tone for one of the most physical defences in the NFL.

Backup Outside Linebackers - Tamba Hali/Terrell Suggs

Hali is second in the AFC in sacks (11) and has really flourished since being moved to outside backer from end.  He is not as much of a liability in coverage as many thought he would be and he is as stout in the run game as he is rushing the passer.  Suggs has rebounded from an awful 2009 campaign and is back registering double digit sacks.  

Starting Inside Linebackers - Jerod Mayo/Ray Lewis

Up until a few games ago Mayo was setting a ridiculous pace for tackles in a season.  He is still leading the NFL with 148 tackles (12 more than the second placed player).  He doesn't have a lot of flashy stats such as sacks, interceptions or forced fumbles, but he is a tackling machine; exactly what you want from an inside linebacker.  Ray is fifth in the league in tackles and has 2 picks, 2 sacks and a touchdown so far this season.  The Ravens defence seems to have fallen off a bit this year but that is not due to Ray.

Backup Inside Linebackers - Stephen Tulloch/Paul Posluszny

Tulloch is having a great year for the Titans and is similar to Mayo in terms of production.  He is emerging as the new leader of the Titans D.  Posluszny is another one of those few shining lights in Buffalo.  If the Bills learn how to draft under Gailey then they have a nice core to build around (Levitre, Wood, Posluszny, Byrd, Spiller).

Starting Cornerbacks - Darrell Revis/Nnamdi Asomugha

I think McCourty will be in the Pro Bowl ahead of Revis due to his numbers, but that's why this isn't the Pro Bowl picks.  It's the Redzone team.  Revis was slowed early in the season with hamstring injuries but has regained his form and is a pure shutdown corner in the NFL.  If I'm picking one corner to have on my team right now, it's Revis.  If Revis is 1, then Asomugha is 1A.  He doesn't have the stats, but that's because teams refuse to throw on him.  He is right back in the discussion for best corner in the league.  

Backup Cornerbacks - Devin McCourty/Antonio Cromartie

As a rookie McCourty is leading the NFL in interceptions (6) and is the #1 corner on a defence that has developed into one of the league's best at this point in the season.  He is mature beyond his years and has received nothing but high praise from Belichick (whose opinion I think we can trust).  Cromartie has thrived in New York and his combination of height and speed is unmatched by any other corner in the league.  

Starting Free Safety - Michael Griffin

Griffin was a bit shaky in pass coverage against the Colts, but Peyton Manning tends to do that to players.  He has 90 tackles and 4 picks.  Solid production.

Starting Strong Safety - Troy Polamalu 

The difference in the way the Steelers D plays with him and without him is astronomical.  He is not only one of the more gifted athletes on the field, but he also has one of the highest defensive football IQ's in the league.  

Backup Safety - Eric Berry

For a rookie this guy has been great.  He covers well, ball hawks and helps in the run game.  Oh and he's a rookie. 

Return Specialist - Marc Mariani

Kicker - Dan Carpenter

NFC Squad will be released next week.

Week 14 Pick'em

Raiders @ Jaguars (-4)
The Jaguars have overachieved to this point in the season.  The Raiders put a beat down on a surging Chargers team last week.  Even though they are on the road, the Raiders can run the ball and stop the run, should be a low scoring affair.

vs Spread: Raiders (+4)
Straight Up: Raiders

Bengals @ Steelers (-8.5)
The Bungles are back.  They seem to play divisional opponents close though.

vs Spread: Bengals (+8.5)
Straight Up: Steelers

Browns @ Bills (pick)
Peyton Hillis is the perfect weapon against the weather in Buffalo.  The Browns have beaten some quality teams in the last 2 months and are superior to the Bills at this point.

vs Spread: Browns
Straight Up: Browns

Packers @ Lions (+7)
Packers have some tough games coming up and need this win to remain ahead in the Wild Card race.

vs Spread: Packers (-7)
Straight Up: Packers

Falcons @ Panthers (+7.5)
I said it last week, the Falcons are the best team in the NFC.

vs Spread: Falcons (-7.5)
Straight Up: Falcons

Bucs @ Redskins (+1.5)
After watching the way they played the Falcons last week I feel safe saying the Bucs are for real.  They are loaded with young talent on offence.

vs Spread: Bucs (-1.5)
Straight Up: Bucs

Rams @ Saints (-9)
The Saints have won 5 in a row and are hitting stride at the perfect time.  The Rams defence has been playing well and Stephen Jackson can neutralize the time of possession against anyone.

vs Spread: Rams (+9)
Straight Up: Saints

Seahawks @ Niners (-5)
PLAYOFFS?! We talkin 'bout the PLAYOFFS?!  How this game has playoff implications I'll never know but the Niners should ensure that parity remains in the god awful NFC West.

vs Spread: Niners (-5)
Straight Up: Niners

Patriots @ Bears (+3)
Short week, on the road, against a tough Bears defence.  One of the reasons Tom Brady was able to perform surgery on the Jets is that he had tons of time to throw.  The Bears can rush the passer with their front four.

vs Spread: Bears (+3)
Straight Up: Bears

Dolphins @ Jets (-5.5)
The Jets will bounce back after a crippling loss on Monday.

vs Spread: Jets (-5.5)
Straight Up: Jets

Broncos @ Cardinals (+4)
I'm interested to see how the offence runs in Denver without McDaniels.  The QB carousel in Arizona continues.

vs Spread: Broncos (-4)
Straight Up: Broncos

Chiefs @ Chargers (-10)
The Chargers should win at home, but this spread is way too much for a divisional game.

vs Spread: Chiefs (+10)
Straight Up: Chargers

Eagles @ Cowboys (+4)
The 'boys have returned to respectability since Jason Garrett took over.  The Eagles are in the playoff hunt and need this win more than the Cowboys do.  Mike Vick has been sensational.

vs Spread: Eagles (-4)
Straight Up: Eagles

Thursday Night Pick'em

Colts @ Titans (+4)
I expect a shootout in this one just like last week.  Manning should right the ship, but CJ wants to show the nation he is still a top back.

Straight Up: Colts
vs Spread: Colts (-4)

The hottest coach out there might be Josh McDaniels

Earlier today the Broncos made one of the worst managerial decisions of 2010.  They fired head coach Josh McDaniels after going 3-9 in his second season at the helm.  This means that they are now paying Mike Shanahan, McDaniels and whoever the hire for 2011.  Must be nice to have that kind of money.  Perhaps in the coming weeks we will learn more about Spygate 2.0 and whether or not that played a factor in his ultimate dismissal.  I tend to think this was more about wins and losses than some sort of film scandal, but the reality is McDaniels is a free agent, and their should be a number of teams lining up for his services.

McDaniels is an offensive coach by trade.  The Denver Broncos have the 11th ranked offence in the NFL at this point.  This is an offence that is run by Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd and Knowshon Moreno.  That is the same Kyle Orton that was mediocre at best in Chicago, and has played better every week since he was paired with McDaniels.  He has a QB rating of 93 so far this season and is 4th in total yards passing.  Brandon Lloyd is leading the league in yards receiving with 1,153.  That is the same Brandon Lloyd that had 2,370 yards receiving combined in his last 7 years in the league.  Knowshon Moreno has been coming on lately and is starting to live up to his billing.  McDaniels drafted him in the 1st round.

I was actually in the Cutler camp the day I heard about McDaniels' decision to trade him.  I thought Josh was over confident for a young coach and maybe cut his nose off to spite his face.  I have since come around and truly believe he should be the most courted coach that isn't currently employed by an NFL club.  Don't forget he was calling the plays when Tom Brady and Randy Moss shattered the single season records enroute to a 16-0 regular season.  Even if you hate his personality, you can't argue that he gets production out of guys that are short on talent (Brady and Moss excluded).  As an offensive coordinator he won't have the same influence on the personality of the team, but will provide a boost to production.

Off the top of my head, teams like San Fran, Cincinnati and Dallas all seem like interesting spots.  The Niners have underachieved on offence for the last few years and if they plan on drafting a quarterback, McDaniels might be a perfect mentor.  Carson Palmer could use someone to provide some direction with that offence and if the combination of two bright young offensive minds in Jason Garrett and McDaniels doesn't scare you, how 'bout when you put them in charge of Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Roy Williams and Felix Jones.  The hurdle their would be that they are both OC's and may not want to co-run the offence.

Eric Mangini, Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis all had varying amounts of success as head coaches, but they are damn good co-ordinators at the very least.  McDaniels will be no different.

Week 13 Pick'em

Bills @ Vikings (-5)
How significant is the injury to Adrian Peterson?  Percy Harvin is out. The Bills have played everyone competitive, including a 'Shoulda' win against the Steelers.

Straight Up: Vikings
vs Spread: Bills (+5)

Browns @ Dolphins (-6)
The Browns are another team that has been playing teams tough lately.  They matchup well against the Dolphins and can run the ball better than the Fins.

Straight Up: Dolphins
vs Spread:  Browns (+6)

Jaguars @ Titans (-3)
The Titans get Kerry Collins back under centre which should stabilize the offence.  Don't look now but the Jags are leading the AFC South.  Mojo has been piling up yardage as of late.

Straight Up: Titans
vs Spread: Jaguars (+3)

Broncos @ Chiefs (-8)
Handshake 2.0.  Will Todd Haley actually shake Josh McDaniels hand after this one?  He should because I expect them to win.

Straight Up: Chiefs
vs Spread: Broncos (+8)

Redskins @ Giants (-7.5)
Eli Manning and the Giants could use this division win to remain in the playoff hunt.  The Redskins are all but out of it and this should seal their fate.

Straight Up: Giants
Spread: Redskins (+7.5)

Bears @ Lions (+5.5)
The Bears are playing great defence and Jay Cutler is turning the ball over less as of late.  The Lions play everyone close and they had a 'shoulda' win earlier this season when they met and Calvin Johnson got his touchdown disallowed for not taking the ball home with him.

Straight Up: Bears
Spread: Bears (-5.5)

Niners @ Packers (-9)
The NFC West is a joke and the Packers should prove that today.  I like Troy Smith but not as much as I like Aaron Rodgers.

Straight Up: Packers
vs Spread: Packers (-9)

Saints @ Bengals (+7)
The Saints have themselves in great shape to make the wildcard.  The Bengals have squandered a talented roster once again.

Straight Up: Saints
vs Spread: Saints (-7)

Raiders @ Chargers (-13)
The Chargers are the hottest team in the league right now and haven't lost in November/December in 2 years.

Straight Up: Chargers
vs Spread: Chargers (-13)

Falcons @ Bucs (+3)
Falcons are the best team in the NFC, despite what Raheem Morris thinks.

Straight Up: Falcons
vs Spread: Falcons (-3)

Panthers @ Seahawks (-4.5)
C'mon Seattle...Pete Carrol can still get his team into the playoffs, but he needs to start winning these powderpuff home games.

Straight Up: Seahawks
vs Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

Cowboys @ Colts (-5.5)
Manning needs this one.  At home he gets it.

Straight Up: Colts
vs Spread: Colts (-5.5)

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)
What a difference a year makes.  Last year the Cardinals had a star quarterback and the Rams had a QB by committee.

Straight Up: Rams
vs Spread: Rams (-3.5)

Steelers @ Ravens (-3)
What is the over/under on hits tonight that result in fines?

Straight Up: Steelers
vs Spread: Steelers (+3)

The Troy Smith Experiment

Troy Smith's audition to be the franchise quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers continues tonight.  He has six games left to prove to his front office, his coaches and his teammates that he is the guy to lead their team into the future.  You'll probably hear some stories tonight during the broadcast about how he is a bit of journey man and lost the starting job in Baltimore to Joe Flacco, but don't believe everything you hear.

Smith was slated to be the starter in Baltimore until an illness railroaded his season.  Flacco was forced to start from the beginning and because he played so well, the Ravens never looked back.  This left Smith out of the mix, however the Ravens coaches had nothing but positive things to say about the former Heisman Trophy winner.  

He was patient, sitting behind Alex Smith and David Carr for most of the season, and now has been given his chance.  If you're a Niners fan who is looking forward to drafting either Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallet of Jake Locker, I'll ask you to give this guy a chance.  Although he is extremely mobile, he has always been more of a pocket passer than a scrambler.  He can make all the throws and has great leadership qualities.

The 49ers team is being built to run the football and play good defence.  Drafting two offensive linemen in the first round to compliment Frank Gore reinforces that point.  Therefore, this type of team needs a smart quarterback who is great off play action and can take off and run when no one is open.  So while dreams of Luck, Locker and Mallet drift through your head tonight, just remember to watch this guy with an open mind.  He just might surprise you.

Week 12 Pick'em

Vikings @ Redskins (+2)
Leslie Frazier takes over the sinking ship in Minny.  While they are out of the playoffs, I expect them to play loose and come away with a win like the Cowboys did with Jason Garret.

Straight Up: Vikings
Spread: Vikings (-2)

Steelers @ Bills (+7)
The Steelers are coming off a convincing win over the Raiders.  The Bills are playing teams tough lately and Ryan Fitzpatrick is proving that smarts can overcome physical talent at the quarterback position.  Still, I like the Steelers to cover because of solid defence.

Straight Up: Steelers
Spread: Steelers (-7)

Titans @ Texans (-6)
Bill Simmons wrote a great article on why the 2010 NFL MVP is WIPQATT (whoever is playing quarterback against the Texans).  This week, that's Rusty Smith?  I expect him to be a tad rusty.

Straight Up: Texans
Spread: Titans (+6)

Jaguars @ Giants (-7)
The Giants need to get back on track if they want to remain in the hunt.  The receiving core is banged up and Eli has been less accurate in recent weeks.  I want to take the Jags, but they typically don't play as well in the cold weather.

Straight Up: Giants
Spread: Jaguars (+7)

Panthers @ Browns (-9)
The Panthers have not shown any resolve this season and John Fox will be gone at the end of the season.  The Browns turn to Jake Delhomme this week, which should prove disastrous.  He should be due for a few picks and that should keep it close to cover the spread.

Straight Up: Browns
Spread:  Panthers (+9)

Packers @ Falcons (-1.5)
A great showdown for NFC supremacy.  Matt Ryan is 18-1 in the Georgia Dome but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing great offence and defence.  This should be a 4th quarter thriller, but I'll take Matty Ice at home.

Straight Up: Falcons
Spread: Falcons (-1.5)

Dolphins @ Raiders (-2.5)
Both these teams are hard to evaluate.  They play well one week and then lay an egg the next.  The difference is, the Dolphins haven't been able to run the ball with the same effectiveness as they have in the last few years.  Run DMC has finally come to the party in Oakland.

Straight Up: Raiders
Spread: Raiders (-2.5)

Chiefs @ Seahawks (+2)
The Seahawks play great at home.  Matt Cassel doesn't have the arm strength to take over a game in the North West.  Enjoy two future superstars at safety in this one: Eric Berry and Earl Thomas.

Straight Up: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks (+2)

Bucs @ Ravens (-7)
The Bucs just keep winning.  This is a tough road test for a young team but they have been up to the challenge in most and are coming off a shutout.  Ravens should win, but I really like the Bucs to cover.

Straight Up: Ravens
Spread: Bucs (+7)

Eagles @ Bears (+3.5)
I'm torn.  The Bears defence has been exceptional against the run and they have enough speed in their front seven to contain Vick.  The issue is, I don't think their secondary is strong enough and you can count on Vick to create time for his receivers on more than one occasion in this one.

Straight Up: Eagles
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

Rams @ Broncos (-3.5)
The Broncos got their butts kicked on Monday, but they are at home against a mediocre opponent.  Mile High is one of the toughest places to play.

Straight Up: Broncos
Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)
Sunday night shootout.  The Colts are a different team in the dome and the big question will be whether or not Freeney and Mathis can get to Rivers before he can get guys open down the field.  I can't go against Manning in primetime at home.

Straight Up: Colts
Spread: Colts (-2.5)

Niners @ Cardinals (+1)
Both teams have been terrible.

Straight Up: Niners
Spread: Niners (-1)

Season Straight Up: 92-70
Season vs Spread: 71-86-5

Thanksgiving Pick'em

Before the season started, these match-ups looked to be great.  Unfortunately due to the Cowboys and Bengals struggles, the games are less relevant for the playoff picture.  Nonetheless I expect the games to all be close and provide everyone with some Thanksgiving entertainment.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (+7.5)

The Lions are 4-0 against the spread this year at home and 7-2-1 against the spread all season.  As soon as the line got pushed above 7, it was an easy decision for me.  I expect Tom Brady and the Patriots to pull this one out, but the Lions at home will keep it close, as they have all year.

Straight Up: Patriots

Spread: Lions (+7.5)

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5)

The Cowboys have been playing inspired football under Jason Garret and get a home game on Thanksgiving to move to 3-0 under his watch.  I expect a lot of points in this one, but the Saints are in a divisional battle and could get Reggie Bush back.  

Straight Up: Saints 

Spread: Saints (-4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-9.5)

A rematch of last years wild card round is much less intriguing in 2010.  The Jets look like contenders to be in the AFC championship game, and the Bengals look like contenders for the #1 overall pick in 2011.  The Jets haven't exactly blown teams out lately and the Bengals have enough talent to keep this close in the primetime Thanksgiving game.

Straight Up: Jets

Spread: Bengals (+9.5)

Week 11 Pick'em

A week off in Omaha, Nebraska made this a shortened version of the picks.  Here are the 1 o'clock kickoffs, check back for the rest at halftime of the first slate of games.

Raiders @ Steelers (-7)
The Raiders need to run the ball to be effective.  The Steelers play great run defence and need to break out of this slump.

Straight Up: Steelers
Spread: Raiders (+7)

Texans @ Jets (-6.5)
The Texans are their usual up and down selves.  The Jets find ways to win and are in a tight battle with the Pats in the AFC East.  They can't afford a letdown.

Straight Up: Jets
Spread: Texans (+6.5)

Ravens @ Panthers (+13.5)
The Panthers are in trouble with the Ravens coming off an extra few days of rest.  Ravens are another team that can't afford to drop this one.

Straight Up: Ravens
Spread: Ravens (-13.5)


Redskins @ Titans (-7)
The Redskins secondary is struggling and they will be in man to man a lot to load the box against CJ.

Straight Up: Titans
Spread: Titans (-7)

Lions @ Cowboys (-5.5)
Last week the Cowboys looked like they could've been in the Super Bowl this year.  Too bad it's too late.

Straight Up: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)

Packers @ Vikings (+3)
I don't really know why except to say that, as a lifetime Favre fan, this might be my last chance to pick him to win.

Straight Up: Vikings
Spread: Vikings (+3)

Bills @ Bengals (-4.5)
Bengals are out, so are the Bills.  Buffalo won't be as hungry now that they removed the goose egg.  Too much talent on the Bengals.

Straight Up: Bengals
Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

Browns @ Jags (-2.5)
The Browns are playing better football than the Jags, who just haven't impressed me despite a 5-4 record.

Straight Up: Browns
Spread: Browns (+2.5)

Cardinals @ Chiefs (-7)
The Chiefs need to rebound after last weeks loss.  Derek Anderson doesn't scare anyone.

Straight Up: Chiefs
Spread: Cardinals (+7)

Seahawks @ Saints (-11)
Saints are at home and need to keep pace with the Falcons.  Seahawks cover.

Straight Up: Saints
Spread: Seahawks (+11)

Falcons @ Rams (+3.5)
Falcons right now are the best team in football.  The Rams are a young team with promise but they aren't in the same league as Atlanta yet.

Straight Up: Falcons
Spread: Falcons

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5)
This should be a great one.  The Bucs are getting little respect (evidence by the 3.5 road dogs) but the Niners are a different team with Troy Smith at QB.  I think the Niners can creep back into the playoff race in the terrible NFC West.

Straight Up: Niners
Spread: Niners (-3.5)

Colts @ Patriots (-4.5)
Best game of the year so far.  I'll split the decision

Straight Up: Patriots
Spread: Colts (+4.5)

Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
Mike Vick was amazing last week.  I expect an encore.  If he doesn't get hurt, I see him as the MVP and the Eagles in the NFC Championship against the Falcons.

Straight Up: Eagles
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

Broncos @ Chargers (-9)
The Chargers are now favoured to win the AFC West in Vegas.  If this game was in Denver I think it might be different.  The Chargers play very well at home and this divisional game can't be overlooked.  Monday night games are typically closer (minus last weeks Vick experience).  The key will be whether or not the Chargers pass rush can get to Orton, if not, they have a very good chance.

Straight Up: Chargers
Spread: Broncos (+9)

Week 10 Pick'em

Bengals @ Colts (-7)
Colts are in the playoff race at home.  Bengals season is over.

vs Spread: Colts (-7)
Straight Up: Colts

Texans @ Jaguars (pick)
This is the type of game the Texans win to inspire their fans again, then they lose next week.  The Jags have a good D-line but the rest of their team is still in rebuilding mode.

vs Spread: Texans
Straight Up: Texans

Titans @ Dolphins (pick)
Chris Johnson will benefit from the addition of Randy Moss.  Chad Pennington will play smart football but he won't be able to hang with the Titans in explosion plays.

vs Spread: Titans
Straight Up: Titans

Vikings @ Bears (+1)
The Bears are slipping and they nearly blew it last week against the Bills in Toronto.  The Vikings locker room is a circus, but Adrian Peterson is as consistent as gravity.

vs Spread: Vikings (-1)
Straight Up: Vikings

Lions @ Bills (-1)
How the Bills are favoured, I have no idea.  The Lions are 7-1 this year against the spread and if they cover this week? They win.

vs Spread: Lions (+1)
Straight Up: Lions

Jets @ Browns (+3)
This is a tough matchup for the Browns.  The Jets should limit Peyton Hillis and Colt McCoy will struggle with every one of his receivers matched up against a better defensive back.  The Jets need a road win to restore confidence.

vs Spread: Jets (-3)
Straight Up: Jets

Panthers @ Bucs (-7)
I'm not sold on the Bucs but Josh Freeman looks good and they are at home.  Panthers start Mike Goodson at RB and Jimmy Clausen at QB.

vs Spread: Bucs (-7)
Straight Up: Bucs

Chiefs @ Broncos (+1)
Bye week or not, the Broncos can't stop the run.  And the Chiefs are great at running the ball.

vs Spread: Chiefs (-1)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Rams @ Niners (-5)
The Rams have overachieved early.  The Niners have underachieved early.  Time for the balance to be restored.

vs Spread: Niners (-5)
Straight Up: Niners

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-4)
Two teams that are all over the board with how they play on Sunday.  Clipboard Jesus looked more like Judas last week.

vs Spread: Cardinals (-4)
Straight Up: Cardinals

Cowboys @ Giants (-12.5)
Jason Garret has an uphill battle with this team, but a road game and a new coach may be just what the doctor ordered.  Ok, maybe not, but I think it'll be closer.

vs Spread: Cowboys (+12.5)
Straight Up: Cowboys

Patriots @ Steelers (-5)
This should be a dandy.  Steelers ability to run the ball and stop the run is the difference.

vs Spread: Patriots (+5)
Straight Up: Steelers

Eagles @ Redskins (+3)
Mike Vick is one of, if not the most dangerous quarterback in the league.  Donovan McNabb apparently needs to hit the treadmill.

vs Spread: Eagles (-3)
Straight Up: Eagles

Season Straight Up: 72-58
Season vs Spread: 58-65-5

Thursday Night Pick'em

Ravens @ Falcons (-1)

Great way for NFL Network to kick-off this seasons coverage with a battle of division leaders.  The Falcons are missing Sean Weatherspoon and Roddy White is going to be playing injured.  Even though the Ravens play good defence, I have a feeling we are in for a shootout.  I'd be really going against the odds by betting against Matt Ryan at home (17-1).

vs Spread: Falcons (-1)
Straight Up: Falcons

Week 9 Pick'em

Bears @ Bills (+3)

The Bills have lost the last two games in overtime, proof that this team is still competing despite its 0-7 record.  Buffalo is ranked last in rush defense allowing 188 yards per game.  Good thing Chicago’s rush offence is no better (27^th averaging 88 yards per game).  Buffalo has allowed 15 passing touchdowns and only have one interception this year (early Christmas for Cutler).  

Vs Spread: Bears (-3)

Straight Up: Bears

Chargers @ Texans (+3)

The key here will be the health of Antonio Gates.  If he plays the Chargers should come away with the win.  If not, I just don’t know if there are enough weapons for Phil Rivers to make plays.  I’ll go with the Chargers but check back before kickoff.

Vs Spread: Chargers (-3)

Straight Up: Chargers

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

The Saints dressed up as their former selves last Sunday for Halloween.  Was it a special occasion or are they getting back into rhythm on offence?  Either way the Panthers give me no reason to expect an upset.

Vs Spread: Saints (-6.5)

Straight Up: Saints

Cardinals @ Vikings (-8)

The Cardinals should have never gotten rid of Matt Leinart.  They have the worst quarterbacks in the league now and even if Favre shows up in a wheelchair, the Vikings will beat the Cardinals.  As always, expect Adrian Peterson to run angry this weekend.

Vs Spread: Vikings (-8)

Straight Up: Vikings

Bucs @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Buc stops here.  Matt Ryan doesn’t lose in the Georgia Dome and the Falcons just have more talent all over the field than the Bucs.  They’ll play the Falcons close, but this game will mark the beginning of Tampa’s second half slide.

Vs Spread: Bucs (+8.5)

Straight Up: Falcons

Jets @ Lions (+4.5)

There are a lot of intriguing matchups in this game.  First and foremost Megatron makes his first visit to Revis Island.  No doubt Revis is a great player, but I expect Calvin to take this opportunity to show everyone just how good he is.  The Lions are 6-1 against the spread this year.  Jets receivers considerably outmatch the Lions Secondary.

Vs Spread: Lions (+4.5)

Straight Up: Jets

Dolphins @ Ravens (-5)

The Dolphins are undefeated on the road so far this season but they are travelling to Baltimore, a notoriously tough place to play.  The addition of Ed Reed is huge to the Ravens and I’ll be on him over Chad Henne.

Vs Spread: Dolphins (+5)

Straight Up: Ravens

Patriots @ Browns (+4.5)

Some analysts have mentioned that Eric Mangini’s knowledge of the Patriots will help him in this game.  I’d argue Bill Belichick’s knowledge of Eric Mangini is a bigger advantage.  The Patriots rarely underestimate teams and they know they need to stay ahead of the Jets and Dolphins.

Vs Spread: Patriots (-4.5)

Giants @ Seahawks (+7)

The Seahawks play much better football at home and their secondary is playing extremely well.  Earl Thomas may be the x-factor in this game.  I expect the Giants to win, but the Seahawks should cover a touchdown.

Vs Spread: Seahawks (+7)

Straight Up: Giants

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1)

Both teams run the football extremely well (1 and 2 in the NFL).  The Chiefs stop the run, the Raiders don’t.  I also think the Chiefs coaching staff is stronger than the Raiders (not physically, settle down Cable).  

Vs Spread: Chiefs (+1)

Straight Up: Chiefs

Colts @ Eagles (-3)

Mike Vick returns, but he faces a stiff challenge.  Say what you want about the Colts defense, but they are FAST.  Don’t expect Vick to have many big runs.  Peyton Manning came in at #8 in NFL Network’s countdown of the top 100 players of all time.  Ya, I’ll go with him.

Vs Spread: Colts (+3)

Straight Up: Colts

Cowboys @ Packers (-7)

It’s too bad because before the season this looked like a great Sunday nighter.  The Cowboys were pathetic last week against the Jaguars and that was at home.  Maybe the fact that they are on the road and are out of the playoff hunt will let them play loose.  That should’ve been the case last week against a much weaker Jags team.

Vs Spread: Packers (-7)

Straight Up: Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+5)

This is a must-win game for the Bengals if they want to salvage the season.  For the first time this season, the Steelers looked average last Sunday night in New Orleans.  I think they’ll rebound in this hard-hitting affair.

Vs Spread: Bengals (+5)

Straight Up: Steelers

Season Straight Up: 62-55

Season vs Spread: 51-59-5

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
The Steelers are the most complete football team in the NFL.  They are top 3 on defence, run the ball extremely well and Big Ben makes big plays in the passing game.  As the weather gets colder, their formula of running and playing defence becomes more and more effective.

2.  New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots seem to have the tunnel vision that led them to all those titles during the dynasty years.  Trading their most productive receiver didn't even cause a hiccup and Deion Branch is proving to be one of the best acquisitions of the year.  The Pats get one of the best guards in football (Logan Mankins) back this week and their schedule down the stretch isn't exactly difficult.

3.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Despite suffering a rash of injuries to some very key players, Manning has the Colts sitting alone atop the AFC South.  Losing Dallas Clark for the year was critical, but if they can even get a few guys back healthy by the end of the year, this team will be threatening in the playoffs.  In all likelihood Peyton Manning will be the NFL MVP...again.

4.  Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise this year and a playoff berth would certainly solidify that.  The Raiders could contend in the division, but the Chiefs have an easier schedule down the home stretch.  they are running the ball extremely well and Jamaal Charles will be healthy and fresh due to his limited carries thus far.

5.  New York Jets (11-5)
The Jets offence stalled last week against the Green Bay Packers which is a bit of a concern considering the amount of weapons they have.  This team runs the ball and plays defence well enough to get them into the playoffs but if they want to go any further, it will come down to Mark Sanchez.

6.  Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
The Ravens got Ed Reed back at the perfect time.  He should shore up a weak secondary and let the front seven focus more on stopping the run.  Flacco has been inconsistent this season but he should play well enough to get them into the elimination round.

NFC

1.  Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
The Falcons have one of the easiest schedules for the remainder of the season and they understand how important home-field advantage will be for their Super Bowl aspirations.  Matt Ryan is 16-1 as a starter at home.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Michael Vick has been outstanding when healthy this season and he is 100% coming off the bye week.  DeSean Jackson is set to return soon and the defence is playing well enough to allow this team to snatch up the division title.

3.  Green Bay Packers (10-6)
The Packers have had an up and down start to the season but they may be hitting stride at the right time.  Clay Matthews is healthy and has been a force to be reckoned with.  Rodgers is one of the better quarterbacks in the league and their offensive line has played exceptional.  Two burning questions: can they run the ball when they need to with Brandon Jackson and are the injuries along the D-line too much to overcome?

4.  Seattle (8-8)
Someone has to win this division, why not the Seahawks.  The Rams could easily be in this spot as well but I think the difference is the Seahawks play tougher at home and the weather in the North West plays to their strengths.

5.  New York Giants (10-6)
The Giants will be in the divisional fight until the final weekend, but ultimately I see them grabbing the #1 wildcard spot.  Hakeem Nicks has been spectacular this season and Eli Manning has an arsenal of weapons on offence.  The defence is improving week to week and Osie Umenyiora is a candidate for defensive player of the year.

6.  Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
Ok, hear me out.  The teams they have lost to this season are a combined 25-12 and four of their five losses have come on the road.  The combined records of opponents for the rest of the season is 31-34 and they play 5 of their next 7 at home.  They need to run the ball with Adrian Peterson and their defensive line needs to finally show up, but Arizona may be the perfect medicine for this struggling team.  If the Saints go 9-7, they could suffer from the head-to-head loss.

Halftime Awards

As we reach the midway point of the NFL season, it is time to handout the Redzone awards for the first half of the season.

MVP - Peyton Manning

The incumbent winner is back at the top spot again and should tie Brett Favre for consecutive MVP’s with 3.  You can argue that he has won this award too much and we should give someone else a chance, but you can’t argue that he is the unquestioned MVP of his team and the NFL.  In just seven games, Manning has thrown 15 TD’s to only 2 interceptions.  He has given up the least amount of sacks, which is a testament to his ability to feel pressure and get rid of the football.  The Colts are 5-2 despite a rash of injuries.  Proof enough is that if Austin Collie, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullit all were healthy but Manning was not, this team is likely 2-5 at best.  

In the Hunt – Tom Brady and Matt Ryan

Again, no surprise that Tom is in the hunt.  His ratio of 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions is solid and as usual he has the Patriots sitting atop the AFC at 6-1.  If he can lead the Pats to the best record in the AFC, it will once again become the argument between stats and wins.  

Matt Ryan is 16-1 at home in his career.  If this team can secure home field advantage in the playoffs, look out.  His stats are not as impressive as some of the other QB’s in the league, but a 12:5 ratio of TD’s to picks is solid.  The Falcons are 5-2.  If he continues his strong play and gets the Falcons anywhere North of 11-5, he’s in the discussion.

Dark horse: Mike Vick, Vince Young

Before his injury, Vick was the MVP of the league.  In 3.5 games he has passed for 800 yards, thrown 6 touchdowns with no interceptions, and has rushed for 187 yards and a TD.  The injury has set him back, but if he returns to the same form for the rest of the year, he could make a push.  Vince Young is another guy who has had injuries slow him down this season.  He does have the highest QB rating in the NFL right now though.  The big question is can he stay healthy?

Need wins: Phil Rivers

If somehow Phil Rivers can get the Chargers into the playoffs, he should definitely be a candidate for MVP.  For all the talk of Favre, Cutler and Rodgers throwing downfield, Rivers dwarfs them by averaging a whopping 8.66 yards per attempt.  That is well higher than anyone else in the league.  He also leads the league in passing yards per game with 331.  He may not get there this year, but Rivers is one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the NFL, year in and year out.  

Defensive Player of the Year - Osie Umenyiora


Umenyiora is second in the NFL in sacks with 8, trailing Clay Matthews (9.5).  Here's the difference: Umenyiora has forced seven fumbles.  He has mastered the sack fumble which means that instead of dropping quarterbacks for a big loss, he generates turnovers.  Winning in today's NFL is done by creating turnovers and holding onto the ball.  Osie accomplishes the turnover part.


In the hunt - Lawrence Timmons, DeAngelo Hall, Clay Matthews


If Polamalu is Butch Cassidy, then Timmons is the Sundance Kid.  He may not be the leader of the Steelers' D, but he is the reason they rank near the top in all defensive categories this season.  He is 4th in the NFL in tackles with 74, has 3 sacks and an interception.  DeAngelo Hall has great stats, although they were inflated by Jay Cutler in one game.  That being said, he is tied for 13th in the league in tackles (a very impressive feat for a corner), to go along with his league leading 6 interceptions (4 vs Cutler).  Had Matthews not missed time due to the hamstring injury he would likely be the leading candidate at this point.  Nonetheless, if he can stay healthy, he will be getting votes come January.  

Rookie of the Year Offense – Sam Bradford

There are a lot of great candidates for this award in 2010.  Unfortunately for them, it has already been awarded to Sam Bradford.  He has thrown more touchdowns (11) than interceptions (8) and more importantly has the Rams in the playoff race.  Wait what?  Is that the same Rams that were 1-15 last season?  Pretty much, and the fact that he has them playing .500 football is outstanding.

Runner-ups - Mike Williams and Dez Bryant

Mike Williams slid in the draft due to character concerns but the Bucs and Josh Freeman must be thrilled they took a chance on him in the fourth round.  Greg Jennings has one more yard and one more touchdown than Williams at this point in the season.  Williams’ play is a big reason the Bucs are 5-2.  

Despite the horror show going on in Dallas, Jerry Jones must be thrilled that he didn’t pass on Bryant like he did Randy Moss.  In an offence with many options, Bryant is on pace for 60 catches, 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.  He also has 2 punt return touchdowns on only 12 returns.  

Rookie of the Year Defense – Ndamukong Suh

I did some searching through the NFL chronicles and I’m fairly certain this would be the first time ever the #1 and #2 overall picks in the draft where the offensive and defensive rookies of the year.  Suh is a beast.  No stats are needed to describe how dominant he has been this season.  His initial surge is unmatched and if you haven’t seen him play this year, tune in on Sunday and focus in on #90.  Ok fine, the fact that he is on pace for 13 sacks, 2 interceptions and 2 touchdowns can’t hurt.

In the Hunt – Earl Thomas 

Earl Thomas leads his team in solo tackles and is tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions.  He is a ball-hawk in every sense of the word and his man to man cover skills are as good as at least half the corners in the NFL.

Comeback Player of the Year – Michael Vick

Even if you can’t forgive him, you have to admire the way he took ownership for a terrible crime and has come back and done all the right things.  He has been gracious for getting a second chance, hasn’t complained at all about playing time and has tried his best to turn his life around.  All while playing arguably the best football of his career.

Week 8 Pick'em

Broncos vs 49ers (-2) @ London
The Niners are not translating talent into wins.  The Broncos are winning games with a much less talented roster.  Josh McDaniels is a better coach than Mike Singletary.  I'll take the Broncos and apologize to the fans overseas that we can't send them more of a marquee matchup.

Spread: Broncos (+2)
Straight Up: Broncos

Jaguars @ Cowboys (-6.5)
Kitna will get the start at home for the injured Tony Romo.  Romo isn't solely responsible for the 'Boys dismal season, but perhaps Kitna will provide a change.  The Jags secondary is very weak.  If nothing else, the Cowboys need to win, to give Jerry Jones something.  Dez Bryant is an emerging star.

Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
Straight Up: Cowboys

Redskins @ Lions (-2.5)
The Lions coming off a bye week pose a big threat to the Redskins.  Matt Stafford looks to return, but am I supposed to believe that he'll last more than a half with Brian Orakpo coming off the edge against Jeff Backus?

Spread: Redskins (+2.5)
Straight Up: Redskins

Packers @ Jets (-6)
The Jets are one of the few preseason favourites that is living up to the hype.  They will be healthy, coming off a bye week, and Green Bay is banged up.  The Packers have a good receiver core and threaten teams by spreading out the formation.  Unfortunately for them, the Jets have the best secondary in the NFL.

Spread: Packers (+6)
Straight Up: Jets

Panthers @ Rams (-3)
Don't look now, but if the season ended today, the Rams would be in the playoffs.  The Panthers have been an up and down team, despite their record and without DeAngelo Williams, they will lack the freshness in the backfield that they are used to.

Spread: Rams (-3)
Straight Up: Rams

Dolphins @ Bengals (-1)
Carson Palmer looked great last week.  If the Bengals want to have a chance, he needs to continue to play well.  If Brandon Marshall can have his way with the Bengals secondary the way Roddy White did last week, this could be a shootout.

Spread: Bengals (-1)
Straight Up: Bengals

Bills @ Chiefs (-7.5)
The Chiefs are one of the best at running the football and the Bills are the worst at stopping the run.  Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good running Chan Gailey's offence, and it wouldn't surprise me if this was close.

Spread: Bills (+7.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Titans @ Chargers (-3.5)
It sounds like Vince Young will start at quarterback this week.  I wonder if he will have the same chemistry with Kenny Britt that Kerry Collins showed last week.  The Chargers play better at home and need the win more than the Titans.

Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
Straight Up: Chargers

Bucs @ Cardinals (-3)
The Bucs are another surprise team, that has themselves in the thick of the playoff race.  The Cardinals have zero consistency this year but the last time they were at home, they beat the defending world champions.

Spread: Cardinals (-3)
Straight Up: Cardinals

Seahawks @ Raiders (-2.5)
The Raiders ran over the Broncos last week.  I feel like a broken record, but the Seahawks have lacked consistency all year.  I'll go with the team that is playing better at this point in the season and is at home.

Spread: Raiders (-2.5)
Straight Up: Raiders

Vikings @ Patriots (-6)
Will the streak come to an end?  I doubt it, but if it's a hobbled Favre or Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings will be running the football a lot.  The Patriots aren't great at stopping the run, and the Vikings play good defence.

Spread: Vikings (+6)
Straight Up: Patriots

Steelers @ Saints (-1)
The Steelers are the better football team this year.  They run the ball better than the Saints, they play better defence than the Saints and lately Drew Brees hasn't given me any reason to think their aerial attack is superior to Big Ben.

Spread: Steelers (+1)
Straight Up: Steelers

Texans @ Colts (-5.5)
It worked last time.  Peyton Manning in primetime?

Spread: Colts (-5.5)
Straight Up: Colts

Season Straight Up:  54-48
Season vs Spread: 45-52-5

Week 7 Pick'em

Steelers @ Dolphins (-3)
For the last few years, Miami's identity has been running the football.  Although they rank only 14th in the league in rushing, they are not a spread attack team and need to run to setup the pass.  The Steelers rank first in rush defence and ninth in rush offence.  Oh and Big Ben looked pretty good last week.

vs Spread: Steelers (+3)
Straight Up: Steelers

Bengals @ Falcons (-3.5)
Just as I thought the Falcons were the most consistent team in the NFC, they get beat down by the Eagles.  One of the reasons the Bengals have struggled is, surprise surprise, their ineffectiveness running the ball and stopping the run (18th in both categories).  My favourite betting stat: Matt Ryan is 15-1 at home.

vs Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
Straight Up: Falcons

Eagles @ Titans (-3)
The Titans looked great on Monday night, albeit against the Jags.  The Eagles pounded one of the better teams in the league last weekend and Kevin Kolb looks like he will get his chance to take back the starting job.  Expect a shootout.

vs Spread: Eagles (+3)
Straight Up: Eagles

Redskins @ Bears (+3)
Both these teams have striking similarities.  Neither can protect the quarterback (both in the top 10 in sacks allowed).  Both quarterbacks also like to throw the ball downfield.  A lot of the sacks on Cutler are his own fault as he needs to throw short against overload blitzes.  This is a defining game for both teams.

vs Spread: Bears (+3)
Straight Up: Bears

Browns @ Saints (-13)
The Saints looked more like their old selves last week in Tampa.  The Browns have played quality teams close this year and Colt McCoy did better than I thought he would against the Steelers in his first start.  Browns should cover but can't see the Saints not winning at home.

vs Spread: Browns (+13)
Straight Up: Saints

Bills @ Ravens (-13)
The Ravens have not been as good on defence but it looks as though Ed Reed is nearing a return.  The Bills  have been awful, but come off a bye week with an intelligent quarterback and a thiner backfield which should help with consistency.  Ravens win, but Ryan Fitzpatrick and CJ Spiller make enough plays to keep it under the spread.

vs Spread: Bills (+13)
Straight Up: Ravens

Rams @ Bucs (-3)
This game showcases two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.  Both clubs have had up and down seasons so far, but we all can agree that they have been better that most would've expected.  The Rams just seem to be jelling and have a true running back on their roster.

vs Spread: Rams (+3)
Straight Up: Rams

49ers @ Panthers (+3)
FINALLY, the Niners came through and won a football game.  It wasn't very convincing and it was against the Raiders, but it's a start.  The Panthers are in full rebuild mode now whereas the Niners still have an outside shot at the post-season.  I hate picking them because of how pathetic they've been this year but...

vs Spread: Niners (-3)
Straight Up: Niners

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-5.5)
I wasn't as impressed with Seattle's win over Chicago as most, mainly because I don't think the Bears are all that good.  The Cardinals are coming off a bye, after beating the defending world champs.  Seahawks have been very good at home this season.

vs Spread: Cardinals (+5.5)
Straight Up: Seahawks

Patriots @ Chargers (-3)
The Chargers are another team that have disappointed.  Losing to the Rams?  C'mon!  They are another team that plays much better at home, but could be without the services of Antonio Gates.  The Pats didn't miss a beat after the Moss trade and are getting better every week on defence.  The Chargers lead the league in offensive yards per game and defensive yards allowed.

vs Spread: Patriots (+3)
Straight Up: Patriots

Raiders @ Broncos (-8.5)
Josh McDaniels is looking smarter each day that Cutler struggles in Chicago.  He refuses to hit his check downs and that is essential in McDaniels offence.  Kyle Orton has no trouble and is enjoying a great year.  The Raiders are playing competitive football but Mile High is one of the toughest places to play.

vs Spread: Raiders (+8.5)
Straight Up: Broncos

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
The Prodigal son returns (again).  Neither team is where they expected to be at this point in the season but the winner is going to be right in the mix at the top of the NFC North.  Another week with Moss, a win to get the pressure off last week, I just think the Vikings are about to turn it up.  Packers might just be a bit too banged up.  Expect another shootout.

vs Spread: Vikings (+2.5)
Straight Up: Vikings

Giants @ Cowboys (-3)
The 'Boys battled last week, but ultimately could not salvage their season.  I thought they played well last week and got a few less breaks than the Vikings.  At home I think they will get a win for the fans.

vs Spread: Cowboys (-3)
Straight Up: Cowboys

Season Straight Up: 49-40
Season vs Spread:  38-47-4

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good - NFL stepping up

The NFL cracking down on hits to the head is essential and it is in the best interest of the players.  The hit made my Brandon Meriweather (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zb1CmHk9GK0) on Todd Heap was malicious and deserves at least a one game suspension.  The reality is that NFL athletes are considerably faster, stronger and larger than they were even a decade ago.  It's simple physics and the NFL is wise to start cracking down on these types of cheap shots immediately.

The Bad - James Harrison

James Harrison is a tremendous football player who plays the game the way it's supposed to be played.  I had no problem with either of his hits on the weekend.  It was his post-fine comments I didn't like.  Threatening to retire because of frustration is the equivalent of a five year old throwing a temper tantrum after being grounded.  He had every right to be upset, but don't make stupid, empty threats about retiring and then on-top of it, miss practice because you're 'mulling it over'.  That's a slap in the face to your teammates, especially considering Harrison returned to practice today and all seems to be forgotten.  If you believe he was actually considering retirement you may have been hit one too many times by Brandon Meriweather.

The Ugly - The Fines

Should the NFL crackdown on hits to the head? Absolutely.  Should Brandon Meriweather been fined and potentially suspended? Absolutely.  What one word can describe Dunta Robinson's fine? Ugly.  On Sunday, Kevin Kolb threw a pass to DeSean Jackson on a crossing route and Robinson hit him at full speed knocking both players to the ground (each suffered a concussion).  Robinson did nothing wrong.  He led with his shoulder and really had no other option if he wanted to stop Jackson.  Had he gone low, Jackson might be out for the year with a devastating knee injury.  In this case the NFL overreacted.  The would've been better off suspending Kolb for throwing a suicide pass.

The Move to an 18-game Schedule

If you listen to Bill Polian, GM of the Indianapolis Colts, moving to an 18-game regular season is a foregone conclusion.   I know at first glance NFL fans might be excited by the notion of adding two more games to the slate and removing half of the preseason is definitely not going to ruffle any feathers.  Temper your enthusiasm.  

As a long-time fan of the NFL, the history of the game is important to me.   Do me a favour.  On Monday night, count the amount of references to NFL records there are during the MNF broadcast (with Favre playing there should be plenty). 

With an 18-game schedule we will essentially be starting from scratch as far as records go.  Names like Jerry Rice, Brett Favre, Eric Dickerson and Michael Strahan will slowly begin to slip from their #1 spots.  The MLB has recently drawn criticism from fans who deem the 162-game season as too long.  While I tend to agree with that notion, the MLB refuses to change because they value the history of the game (records).  It doesn’t seem as though the NFL shares the same conviction.

Ok, so you don’t care about the history of the game.  You are ecstatic about adding two more games to the season because it’s two more Sundays of hanging with the boys, fantasy football and the more NFL, the better.  Well, I hate to tell you, but these two games will only make things worse.  Every team plays the other teams in their division twice.  Two added games is not enough for added divisional games and therefore the games will be against either conference or non-conference opponents.  Not only does that mean a less than marquee matchup, it decreases the effect divisional games have on a team’s final standing (6 of 16 37.5%, 6 of 18 33.3%).  As a result, the division rivalries won’t mean as much.  

Still not convinced?  Ask yourself how entertained you’ve been by watching the Colts the last few years in their final two weeks play with Jim Sorgi or Curtis Painter at quarterback.  With an 18-game season, do undefeated and one-loss teams shut it down in after fifteen games?  That would mean more meaningless games with starters on the sidelines and guys like Peyton Manning might end up with 5 weeks off.  

Despite all of this, the league looks like they will make the move in the near future.  Just don't let the owners fool you that it's better for the fans.  It's all about the Benjamins.

WEEK 6 Pick'em

Chargers @ Rams (+9)
Despite Phil Rivers putting up MVP numbers, the Chargers have dug themselves into a hole because of poor special teams play.  The Rams don't have a real return threat and Sam Bradford just lost his favourite target for the year.  Even on the road, the Chargers need to put the Rams away, convincingly.

Spread: Chargers (-9)
Straight Up: Chargers

Chiefs @ Texans (-4.5)
I doubted the Chiefs 3-0 start, but the way they played the Colts proved to me that they are for real.  The 'Patriots of the West' were able to hold Peyton Manning in check so there is no reason to believe they can't do the same to Matt Schaub.  The Texans have been wildly inconsistent and even though their at home, I'll go with the team that's been playing solid football all year.

Spread: Chiefs (+4.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Ravens @ Patriots (-2.5)
The much anticipated rematch from last year's playoff battle is one of the better games on the slate this weekend.  The Ravens looked a lot better last week and I know everyone is freaking about the loss of Randy Moss.  Part of me wants to pick the Ravens, but I have one rule I live by: Never bet against Bill Belichick coming off a bye week.

Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
Straight Up: Patriots

Saints @ Buccaneers (+4.5)
It's no surprise that the Saints aren't playing like they did last year.  Super Bowl teams rarely are the same for a number of reasons (shortened offseason due to media/public relations commitments) and teams have had a whole year to analyze what made their offence tick last year.  The Bucs are coming off a bye and upset the Bengals 2 weeks ago.

Spread: Buccaneers (+4.5)
Straight Up: Saints

Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5)
The Falcons have been the best and most consistent team in the NFC.  The Eagles have looked good as well, but they let a bad Niners offence back into the game last Sunday night.  The Falcons are good everywhere, including special teams.

Spread: Falcons (+2.5)
Straight Up: Falcons

Lions @ Giants (-10)
The Lions proved that they are no longer in the basement of the NFL by crushing the St. Louis Rams.  They have been in every game this season against the NFL elite and I have no reason to believe this game will be any different against another team who is inconsistent on offence.

Spread: Lions (+10)
Straight Up: Lions

Seahawks @ Bears (-6.5)
Somehow the Bears won last week even though their starting quarterback was picked off 4 times and threw for less than 50 yards.  The Bears have been very solid on defence and Jay Cutler is back this week.  Seattle plays a lot better at home than they do on the road.

Spread: Bears (-6.5)
Straight Up: Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-14)
Big Ben returns this week and the Steelers offence should put up 21+ on the Browns.  The best defence in football going up against a rookie quarterback with no offensive weapons outside of Peyton Hillis is a recipe for a shutout.

Spread: Steelers (-14)
Straight Up: Steelers

Dolphins @ Packers (-3)
It sounds like Aaron Rodgers will be good to go for this one, but the Pack will be without Jermichael Finley for the season.  The Packers still have enough talent to beat the Dolphins at Lambeau.

Spread: Packers (-3)
Straight Up: Packers

Jets @ Broncos (+3.5)
The Jets haven't looked great against the pass this season and Kyle Orton is playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL right now.  The Jets will run the ball and try and control the clock but Orton will find open receivers and keep this one close.

Spread: Broncos (+3.5)
Straight Up: Jets

Raiders @ Niners (-7)
Vegas is still giving the Niners a ton of credit.  At 0-5, it's ridiculous that this line is at -7.  The Raiders have played hard-nosed competitive football and the Niners have shown me nothing to warrant picking them yet.

Spread: Raiders (+7)
Straight Up: Raiders

Cowboys @ Vikings (-1.5)
How things have changed since August.  One of these teams will be all but finished come Sunday night. There is no chance that Favre misses a game due to tendonitis, but Brad Childress would be wise to give AP 30 touches.  If it was in Dallas, I'd be picking Dallas....

Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
Straight Up: Vikings

Colts @ Redskins (+3)
Peyton Manning in primetime?

Spread: Colts (-3)
Straight Up: Colts

Titans @ Jaguars (+3)
The Titans are simply a much more talented/deep football team than the Jags.  Look for Kenny Britt and Vince Young to have big games.

Spread: Titans (-3)
Straight Up: Titans

Season Straight Up: 42-33
Season vs Spread:  31-40-4

WEEK 5 Pick'em

Broncos @ Ravens (-7)

The return of Ed Reed can’t come soon enough for a struggling Ravens pass defense.  Part of the reason I think Hillis ran so well against Baltimore was because the Ravens needed to play their safeties more in coverage.  Broncos can’t run the ball at all but sure can pass.

Spread: Broncos +7

Straight Up: Ravens

Jags @ Bills (-1)

This has to be the least entertaining game of the weekend.  The Jags pulled off the upset last week and their secondary didn’t look terrible.  CJ Spiller will get more touches now that Marshawn has been moved.  Jags win a close one.

Spread: Jags +1

Straight Up: Jags

Chiefs @ Colts (-7)

The Chiefs have a lot of explosion players (McCluster/Arenas/Charles) and a guy who can pound the rock (Thomas Jones).  Eric Berry will be a great player in this league but he is about to find out what it’s like to play a guy like Peyton Manning.  

Spread: Colts -7

Straight Up: Colts

Rams @ Lions (-3)

Both these teams have been playing tough football and it is nice to see them moving in the right direction.  The Rams have a few wins this season, the Lions deserve one and will feed off a home crowd that sees a rare opportunity in which their team is favoured.

Spread: Lions -3

Straight Up: Lions

Falcons @ Browns (+3)

The Falcons found a way to win over the Niners last week and that is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.  The Browns have played some pretenders tough, but the Falcons have big aspirations and are a very balanced football team.

Spread: Falcons -3

Straight Up: Falcons

Buccaneers @ Bengals (-6.5)

Carson looked better last week and the Bengals get a home game to try and make up for an inexcusable loss to the Browns.  The Bucs are coming off a bye week, which is always dangerous, but I just don’t think they have the experience to win this one on the road.

Spread: Bengals (-6.5)

Straight Up: Bengals

Bears @ Panthers (-1)

Julius Peppers returns to Carolina but the Bears have Todd Collins at the helm and have not been able to run the ball behind a weak offensive line.  The Panthers have a strong defense and they CAN run the ball.  Peppers will want to have a big game, but Jordan Gross is one of the best tackles in the game.  

Spread: Panthers (-1)

Straight Up: Panthers

Packers @ Redskins (+2.5)

The Packers haven’t looked good in their last two games (loss to Bears, close win over the Lions).  I’m going to pick them this week based on the fact that they just need to get it going.  If they lose here, with tough games in the coming month, the Super Bowl hype should be put on hold. 

Spread: Packers (-2.5)

Straight Up: Packers

Giants @ Texans (-3)

The Giants looked awful on offence against the Bears.  The Texans get Brian Cushing back this weekend and are just a better team than the Giants right now, with or without Andre Johnson.

Spread: Texans (-3)

Straight Up: Texans

Saints @ Cardinals (+7)

Undrafted rookie Max Hall starts for the Cardinals this week at quarterback.  Last time I checked Drew Brees was still the quarterback for the Saints.  Brees>Hall.

Spread:  Saints (-7)

Straight Up: Saints

Chargers @ Raiders (+6)

The Chargers always seem to get off to a slow start but now look like they are hitting their stride.  Do the Raiders line Asomugha up over Gates?  McFadden is out and the Raiders offence can’t score in lockstep with Rivers.

Spread: Chargers (-6)

Straight Up: Chargers

Titans @ Cowboys (-7)

Dallas, coming off a bye week, should be ready for the visiting Titans.  The Schedule gets much more difficult after this and if they want any hope of playing at home in the Super Bowl, they need this win.  The Titans haven’t given Chris Johnson a lot of help on offence and therefore he has 22 eyes on him at all times.

Eagles @ 49ers (-3.5)

Kevin Kolb returns as the starter for the Eagles.  The ‘Niners either get blown out, or give games away.  This one shouldn’t be any different.  Time to give David Carr the ball in San Fran.

Spread: Eagles (+3.5)

Straight Up: Eagles

Vikings @ Jets (-4)

It’s funny that Revis is still chirping Randy Moss after getting lit up for not only one of the nicest TD’s of the year, but also pulling his Hamstring trying to keep up with him.  Slouch?  Randy will be out to prove to New England why they shouldn’t have let him go and this will make things easier on AP.  Jets are playing well, but on Monday Night, I’ll go with Favre.

Spread: Vikings (+4)

Straight Up: Vikings

Season Straight Up: 37-25

Season vs Spread:  26-32-4