Week 17 Pick'em

Season Record: 159-81

Detroit @ Green Bay
Neither team has anything to play for really, but given that these two teams could meet in the playoffs, it means a lot for team morale.  Detroit will want to prove they can win in Wisconsin.  UPDATE: Rodgers, Woodson and Matthews out.  Pick Change

Pick: Lions

San Francisco @ St. Louis
The Rams will have a very interesting decision to make should they land the #1 pick in the draft.

Pick: 49ers

New York Jets @ Miami
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Dolphins will win this.  The Jets are pretty much eliminated, and the Fins have been playing well.  However, the scenario that must occur for the Jets to get into the playoffs is not overly farfetched, and I imagine they will be fighting tooth and nail for their coach.

Pick: Jets

Chicago @ Minnesotta
What a disappointing year for these two teams.  A severe knee injury to Adrian Peterson changes how teams will play the Vikings.  Toby Gerhart is a solid back, but doesn't force defences to change the way they play.  Josh McCown played well last week in the loss.

Pick: Bears

Buffalo @ New England
Patriots still need to lock up home field advantage.  They play lights out at home.

Pick: Patriots

Carolina @ New Orleans
The Saints are still playing for home field advantage and although the Panthers have been playing much better football lately, no one has been able to slow the Saints offence.

Pick: Saints

Washington @ Philadelphia
Everyone in Philly must wonder what could've been if only their team had gotten its act together one week sooner.

Pick: Eagles

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
'You play to win the game' - Herm Edwards.  After all he's done for them, the team pulls out a win to save Peyton from an ugly offseason.

Pick: Colts

Tennessee @ Houston
Since clinching a playoff berth, the Texans haven't won a game.  They need to get back on track if they want to have any chance in the post season.

Pick: Texans

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Falcons are playing good football and are always better in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.  The Bucs have been the most disappointing team of 2011.

Pick: Falcons

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
If you think the Ravens are simply going to roll over, think again.  They need home field advantage and a loss combined with a Steelers win, forces them to play an extra game and go on the road.  Ray Lewis is showing some real signs of aging and his emotional leadership can only mask his physical deterioration for so long.

Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
It seems as though Big Ben will play this Sunday as the Steelers try and get home field advantage.  Of all playoff bound teams, the Steelers could use the bye week the most with the amount of injuries to key players.

Pick: Steelers

Kansas City @ Denver
Kyle Orton returns to put an end to the Broncos miracle run.  Sure it's true that Orton will be a man possessed trying to win this game.  Only problem is Tebow always plays like a man possessed and has won a lot more games than Orton.

Pick: Broncos

San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are the 2nd most disappointing team in 2011.  Still they can end a divisional rivals season and have the talent to do so.

Pick: Chargers

Seattle @ Arizona
Both teams have rallied since dismal starts to the season.  Special teams will decide this one.

Pick: Cardinals

Dallas @ New York
Couldn't finish out the season with a better game.  The Cowboys controlled the game right up until the final 5 minutes when these two faced off a few weeks ago.  I expect they'll find a way to hold on.

Pick: Cowboys

Christmas Rant: Rob Ryan Needs to Shut It

When Rex Ryan took over as the head coach of the New York Jets, it didn’t take long for the casual fan to find out what he was about.  Former players of his described him as a brash, outspoken and confident guy.  He didn’t disappoint.  Rex relished the spotlight and seemed to provide a new and controversial sound-bite every week.  Unfortunately the twin syndrome has kicked in and I’m ready to call out his loudmouth twin brother.

In his first year as defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has been the most outspoken ‘coordinator’ in NFL history.  He has constantly made claims about how well they’re going to play and pretty much been as loud and obnoxious as his brother.  The only problem is he isn’t the head coach.  Jason Garrett is, although you wouldn’t know it based on the number of sound-bites they each produce.  Today, NFL.com reported that Rob Ryan claimed his head coaching offer is ‘going to happen’ and it was ‘only a matter of time’.  Rob.  You’ve ranted enough.  It’s my turn.

Prior to joining the Jets in 2009, Rex ran the Ravens defense which consistently ranked in the top 3 in points against and yards allowed.  In his first season as head coach, the Jets defense ranked #1 and allowed a stingy 14.8 points per game.  Last year his defense ranked 3^rd overall and currently sits 7^th this year with two games to play.  Rob has the mouth and the look.  He doesn’t have the substance.  Over the last four years, Rob has been the defensive coordinator for the Raiders, Browns (2 seasons) and Cowboys.  His defenses have ranked 27^th, 31^st, 22^nd and currently sit 13^th this season.  He hasn’t even cracked the top 10. 

Whether Rex rubs you the wrong way or not, two things about him are respectable.  When he was a coordinator, he kept his brashness contained to the locker room as to not undermine the head coach.  When he finally was the leader in New York, he talked a lot – but backed it up.  Rob’s path has taken a bit longer, and although I don’t have a twin, I can imagine there is a fair amount of jealousy.  It’s really the only explanation for Rob acting like he’s the lead dog in Dallas and shooting his mouth all the time. 

In the words of Shooter Mcgavin – here’s a free lesson for you Rob: Shut your mouth and coach a defense that for once ranks in the top 5.  So far, it’s been a lot of talking and not a lot of walking.

Week 16 Pick'em

Season Record: 150 - 74 (#1 vs 8 ESPN Analysts)

Houston @ Indianapolis

Momentum is huge in the NFL.  The Colts finally winning a game will allow them to loosen up and play better.  They beat a quality football team in the Titans so it’s not out of the question they come up with an upset tonight.  Still, the Texans lead the league in rushing and defense.  A great combination.

Pick: Texans

Denver @ Buffalo

Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t play in the cold weather (it was painfully clear last week).  Poor conditions favours Tebow as defenders will not have sure footing. 

Pick: Broncos

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Both teams are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, but Cinci has a much more realistic chance of getting into the postseason.  The Cardinals are 6-1 while the Bengals are 3-4 over the last 7 weeks.  Patrick Peterson covering AJ Green should be interesting.  Expect this to be a close one.

Pick: Cardinals

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Chris Johnson isn’t healthy and may not play.  We’re not sure who will get the start at QB for the Titans.  Regardless, the Jags are not good and although they’ve shown that they can show up randomly, it’s not something I’m willing to bet on.

Pick: Titans

Oakland @ Kansas City

Two more teams that are battling mathematical elimination.  Romeo was able to dial up the perfect game plan for the Packers, the Raiders can’t be that difficult can they?

Pick: Chiefs

Miami @ New England

The Patriots offense is picking up steam and is playing well enough to win despite an awful defense.  Reggie Bush has been impressive this season and has backed up his claim that he is an every down back.  Brandon Marshall should have a big day.

Pick: Patriots

New York @ New York

As if it couldn’t get any better.  One New York team will have the privilege of essentially eliminating their hometown rival from playoff contention.  Believe me, whichever of these two teams gets into the playoffs will be dangerous.  In a game that is tough to predict, I have to go with the better QB.

Pick: Giants

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

Even without Big Ben the Steelers are miles ahead of the lowly Rams, who are a few losses away from a potential mind-blowing decision on Andrew Luck.

Pick: Steelers

Minnesota @ Washington

The “we got fooled by McNabb” Bowl.  Grossman should pass all over the Vikings who can’t cover anyone.  AP could have a big day running the ball as he will no doubt be on a mission to get 1000 yards on the season.

Pick: Redskins

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Two teams whose arrows are pointing in opposite directions.  For Christmas, Cam Newton wants to run the table like the Lions did last year.  Raheem Morris wants a job. 

Pick: Panthers

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Every time the Ravens lay an egg, they blast a team the following week.  They are undefeated at home this season and the Browns have already called it a year.  Ray Lewis is starting to show real signs of aging.

Pick: Ravens

San Diego @ Detroit

The key in this game will be whether or not the Chargers offensive line can protect Phil Rivers.  They were able to last week and as a result, handed the Ravens an ass-kicking.  The Lions can clinch a playoff berth so the home crowd will be rocking.

Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia @ Dallas

The Psyches in this one are the main story.  Dallas must be feeling the pressure and they know that a dangerous Eagles team is coming to town.  The Eagles have been written off and therefore can play loose (as they have the last few weeks). 

Pick: Eagles

San Francisco @ Seattle

Marshawn Lynch is the bell cow for Seattle but the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in months.  I can’t see Tarvaris Jackson making enough plays to win this one.

Pick: 49ers

Chicago @ Green Bay

This would’ve been a real Christmas treat if Josh “which” McCown wasn’t starting for the Bears.

Pick: Packers

Atlanta @ New Orleans

A great divisional game to close out the holiday weekend.  Brees has been unstoppable lately and is always at his best in the Super Dome.  The Saints don’t typically blow out divisional opponents because they are more prepared for the high flying Saints offence.  Matty Ice wants this one. Badly.

Pick: Falcons

Why Raheem Morris Must Go

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the most disappointing team this season.  After barely missing the playoffs last year with the youngest team in the league, there was reason for optimism heading into the 2011 campaign.  They proceeded to fall flat on their face. 

The first thing to consider is whether or not the team has the talent to contend.  In fact, I believe the Bucs are one of the most talented teams in the NFC.  Josh Freeman is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league and has all the tools to be a franchise player.  The offensive line is above average with Donald Penn and Davin Joseph as the best of the bunch.  Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow are quality receiving targets and LeGarette Blount is a power runner who bulldozes opponents. 

The defense is actually better.  The defensive line is loaded at every position and is among the most talented in the league.  The secondary is solid, despite Ronde Barber getting older and middle linebacker Mason Foster is a budding star.  Sure they could use some help at OLB but nobody’s perfect. 

The problem is head coach Raheem Morris and it’s shocking how similar his time in Tampa has mirrored that of Josh McDaniels tenure in Denver.  At the time they were hired, both were the youngest head coach in NFL history.  They both got off to hot starts and looked to have their teams in great shape.  Then, everything collapsed and McDaniels was fired before the end of his second season.  Morris will be lucky to finish his as well.

Don’t get me wrong, Morris is a smart defensive mind and it appears that his players like him.  However, as a young head coach, you need some help.  When Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, he had the legendary Dick Lebeau running the defense.  When Jon Gruden took over in Tampa, he had Monte Kiffin.  Even Packers head coach Mike McCarthy brought in Dom Capers to give him some help on the defensive side.  McDaniels didn’t.  After Mike Nolan left, he promoted his linebacker coach to defensive coordinator.  Things went downhill from there.

Raheem Morris also hired internally by promoting Greg Olson to the position of offensive coordinator.  He had a good first season, but now the wheels have fallen off.  Both are likely to lose their jobs and the Bucs are miles from where they thought they’d be at this juncture.

In business, if you want to have success, it’s a good idea to surround yourself with high quality people.  Having a strong support network is extremely valuable when faced with unique problems.  Whether McDaniels and Morris thought they could do it on their own is irrelevant.  They couldn’t.  As a young coach, Morris should’ve brought in an established veteran to run the offence (defense in McDaniels case).  It would’ve ensured that he could focus completely on the defense and have confidence that the offence would be in good hands.  Instead, the recipe of having two inexperienced coaches has proven ineffective and is about to cost another promising young coach his job.

McDaniels will get another shot (rumours suggest it might be as soon as 2012) because he is an offensive genius.  His next team will believe he has matured and is now fit to take over again as the ‘lead dog’.  Morris will likely become a coordinator again and have to earn another head coaching gig.  Both of them will be fine, but the next young hot shot who thinks he can go it alone, won’t be.  

Week 15 Pick'em

Season Record: 143 - 65 (#1 vs ESPN Analyst picks)

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Cowboys are playing good football, but just can't seem to hold on to a lead.  They've buckled hard in the final minutes over the last 2 weeks.  The Bucs are atrocious and rumours of Raheem Morris being fired will make things very tense in Tampa.

Pick: Cowboys

Miami @ Buffalo
The Bills will give their home fans a treat after really spiralling out of contention the last two months.

Pick: Bills

Seattle @ Chicago
The Bears got Tebowed last week but their defence has been very good since Cutler went out.  This is a must win for their playoff hopes, their at home, it's time.

Pick: Bears

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Jake Locker will likely get the call for the Titans at quarterback.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts might pull this out, but the Titans D is very good and Chris Johnson should run all over Indy.

Pick: Titans

Green Bay @ Kansas City
Jennings is out for the regular season.  Good thing the Packers 'next man up' is someone as talented as James Jones.

Pick: Packers

Cincinnati @ St. Louis
The Bengals will look to stay alive in the wild card race in St. Louis.  The Rams have been a real disappointment this season.

Pick: Bengals

New Orleans @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson returns for the Vikings but their secondary has looked atrocious lately.  Drew Brees should close in on Marino's record.

Pick: Saints

Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants have been up and down, but Eli Manning has really impressed me this season.  He has put himself in elite company this year and is playing as well as anyone not named Rodgers.

Pick: Giants

Carolina @ Houston
The Panthers are playing good football, but they are learning how to win still.  The Texans have their sites set on a playoff bye.

Pick: Texans

Detroit @ Oakland
Suh returns for the Lions in a must-win game for both teams.  Should be a battle in Cali.

Pick: Lions

New England @ Denver
Expect Tom Brady to have his foot on the gas pedal from the start as it appears the only way to beat Tim Tebow is to put the game out of reach by the time the 4th quarter rolls around.

Pick: Patriots

New York Jets @ Philadelphia
The Jets are in the fight of their lives for a playoff berth.  Their run game has come on strong lately.  Philly has enough talent to beat anyone at any time.

Pick: Jets

Cleveland @ Arizona
McCoy may be out.  Zona has played much better the last few weeks knocking off some great teams in the 49ers and Cowboys.

Pick: Cardinals

Baltimore @ San Diego
The Ravens get Ray lewis back this week and Suggs has been playing at an MVP level the last month.  The Chargers always play better late in the season, but their offensive line is in for a tough day.

Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
Ben Roethlisberger is a true warrior and I can't imagine he misses this game.  If he's out I might revise the pick but if he's in, I'll take the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers

The Evolution of the Tight End

 In January of 2004, Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts squared off against Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in one of the most memorable AFC Championship games in recent history.  In that game, the Patriots secondary bullied the Colts wide receivers off the line of scrimmage prompting the NFL to review the rules on contacting receivers.  The following season, referees cracked down on the ‘chuck’ rule, which limits defenders to contacting receivers only within the first five yards.  What effect did it have?  Well, in that same year, Peyton Manning broke a number of passing records including touchdowns in a season and the NFL began a full scale transition into the pass-happy league it is today.  The game has since turned into basketball on turf and no one has benefited more than tight ends.

Teams used to cover tight-ends with linebackers.  They would use their size and strength to stymie the tight-ends at the line of scrimmage.  Once the ‘chuck’ rule was enforced, linebackers couldn’t get away with such tactics anymore.  They were exposed in coverage as they lacked the athleticism to stay with the more gifted tight-ends.  The most prolific offences in the NFL right now feature tight-ends.  The Packers are the only team with 5 of them on the active roster and Jermichael Finley is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the league.  The Patriots drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez early in the 2010 draft who have become the focal point of Belichick’s offensive system.  The Saints Jimmy Graham is leading all tight-ends in catches and he played more basketball than football in university.

The question defenses must ask is - how do we stop them?  When Rob Gronkowski comes on to the football field, who do you put out there to cover him?  The vast majority of linebackers are not athletic enough to stay with him and even if they are, his wingspan and height make it almost impossible to cover him on jump balls.  Safeties have the speed but definitely not the size.  Gronk, Finley and Graham are the new generation whose path was carved out by guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, former basketball players who, given a clean release from the line of scrimmage, could use rebounding technique and body position to ‘box-out’ smaller defenders.  Even now NFL rules continue to change to protect receivers.  Flags for hits on ‘defenseless receivers’ are only making it easier for offensive passing systems as receivers no longer fear catching balls in traffic.

The rule changes in the passing game have made these guys almost impossible to stop.  Fear not, I have a solution.

Offensive scouts now spend a great deal of time and effort evaluating college basketball stars in hopes they find the next Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates.  Since apparently no one can guard these guys on the field, maybe defensive coaches should head to the basketball gym as well.  Who better to cover Jimmy Graham than say, Jimmy Graham?  The obvious issue is that tall guys have difficulty tackling, though tackling itself has become a lost art.  Even if he isn’t a great tackler, having a ‘coverage specialist’ to play on 3^rd downs and certain situations could be the key to winning games. 

It would be an experiment for sure, but as the Packers, Patriots and Saints have proved, in the constantly changing NFL it’s better to be ahead of the curve than left behind.  

Week 14 Pick'em

Season Record 129-63 (#1 out of 8 ESPN Analysts)

Houston @ Cincinnati

I’ve always believed Wade Phillips was a better coordinator than head coach. His Texans are allowing the lowest average yardage per game in the NFL. People will doubt TJ Yates, but in a game that will come down to who runs the ball better, I like the Texans run game more.

Pick: Texans

Minnesota @ Detroit
The Lions are in the thick of the wildcard race and should blow past the depleted Vikings. Christian Ponder may be out and AP will not be 100% if he suits up. If Tebow can light up the Vikes secondary, I imagine Stafford and Megatron can as well.

Pick: Lions

New Orleans @ Tennessee
New Orleans has looked unstoppable lately; however they face a team that matches up very well against them. The field in Tennessee is grass and the Titans can create pressure with their front four. The Saints have a let down game.

Pick: Titans

Philadelphia @ Miami
I have no idea what to say about this game. On paper, the Eagles are the best team in the league and have been awful. The Dolphins went from being the worst team in the league to winners of 4 straight. The Eagles know it’s over but Mike Vick has something to prove in his first game back.

Pick: Eagles

Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Kyle Orton era lasted less than a quarter and the Chiefs turn back to Tyler Palko. The Jets are still in the hunt and typically start to play better as we get into December.

Pick: Jets

New England @ Washington
Due to a weak schedule, the Patriots have a realistic chance at seizing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This might be their toughest test.

Pick: Patriots

Atlanta @ Carolina
In my opinion, the Panthers have already transitioned into a playoff team. What I mean is, although they are too far behind, they are competing like a playoff team. This will be a great one as the Falcons need the win badly and the Panthers are one of the most dangerous teams in the league to face.

Pick: Falcons

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
I’m not even sure if people in Florida care about this one.

Pick: Bucs

Indianapolis @ Baltimore
The Colts have already turned their attention away from this season and towards the Luck/Manning mess that is sure to come.

Pick: Ravens

Chicago @ Denver
The Bears defense must be livid after playing very well against the Chiefs and losing 10-3 (all because of a hail mary touchdown). This week they know that the Tebow Train is rolling in and the crowd will be going bonkers. Who will be able to generate offence on the Bears?

Pick: Broncos

San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers do not take games off. The Cardinals are the epitome of sporadic.

Pick: 49ers

Oakland @ Green Bay
Clearly the Giants were insane to leave 55 seconds on the clock last week. Although the Packers looked like they could’ve done it in 15 seconds if necessary.

Pick: Packers

Buffalo @ San Diego
The Chargers always start to play better when they are flirting with mathematical elimination. Read my article on the Bills if you want the good, because this week’s west coast road trip is bad.

Pick: Chargers

New York Giants @ Dallas
No love lost in this one. The Giants roll into big D for a pivotal game against the Cowboys. The Giants come away with a shocker.

Pick: Giants

St. Louis @ Seattle
A rematch of last year’s win-and-your-in game will not have the same entertainment value. Both teams have been atrocious but Seattle is a tough place to play and they’ll be revved up on Monday night. Marshawn has solidified himself as a feature ball carrier.

Pick: Seahawks

Reasons for Optimism in Buffalo...No, Really...

For all the good that Ralph Wilson has done for the game of football, he must have some skeletons in the closet. How else can you explain the constant pain the football gods inflict on the Bills and their fans. Take this year for example. No one, not even Bills fans thought they had a chance at making the playoffs. Then out of nowhere they start the season 4-1 and beat the Patriots for the first time since smart phones were invented. Just as Bills fans allowed optimism to creep back into their psyche, the team collapsed and is now on pace for another losing season. Losing 4 straight Super Bowls is starting to seem like the good ole days.


Believe it or not Bills fans, amidst all this heartache is some good news. For the first time in years the team is actually not in terrible shape and has a core of talented players to build on.

The Corner Stones
WR Stevie Johnson – One of the most impressive things I’ve seen all season was Stevie Johnson fly right over Revis Island. Revis has established himself as a true shutdown corner and has blanketed all of the top receivers in the NFL. Johnson was the first guy to consistently beat Revis in man-to-man coverage. His ability to stem his routes at the line of scrimmage made the Jets superstar look pedestrian. He has the talent of a true number one receiver, but needs to mature to fully reach his potential.

DT Marcell Dareus – I was watching the Bills - Jets game a couple weeks ago and was shocked to hear the announcer say that Dareus really hasn’t lived up to expectations this year. I guess that’s proof that some guys only look at stats to get their ‘knowledge’. Dareus has been everything the Bills expected when they drafted him 3rd overall. He is stout against the run and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage. He could become a Pro Bowler player as soon as next season.

DT Kyle Williams – Another guy who flies under the radar, Williams is one of the best defensive linemen in the league. His 2011 campaign was cut short due to injury but his return in 2012 will benefit Dareus as few players work harder than Williams.

The Supporting Cast
C Eric Wood / G Andy Levitre – The interior offensive line is young and talented. Wood’s season got cut short, but these two should anchor the Bills O-line for years to come. Demetrius Bell has been impressive at LT as well this year and adding one quality player to the mix could make this a top AFC unit.

FS Jairus Byrd – Byrd is a big safety who always seems to be around the ball. After a breakout rookie season, he had a down year in 2010. Byrd has shown flashes this season of the player he could become. As the Bills front seven improves, Byrd will have more opportunities to make plays.

While the aforementioned players should all be considered ‘integral’ to the Bills future, there are three guys that are hard to place.

Wild Cards
RB CJ Spiller - Drafted in the top ten, Spiller has struggled to seize the #1 RB job. A big reason for that is Fred Jackson’s emergence as one of the most complete backs in the league. In 2012, Jackson will be coming off a season ending injury and is already on the wrong side of 30. The verdict on Spiller will be complete after 2012 and either he fizzles out or becomes the dynamic playmaker he was billed as.

CB Aaron Williams – The 2011 2nd round pick has been plagued with injuries in his rookie campaign. His development will be integral to the Bills pass defense and could give Buffalo two solid defensive backs in the starting lineup.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - He is one of the brightest quarterbacks both on and off the field. Fitz’s pre-snap adjustments and ability to read coverage has made him successful despite limited arm strength and stature. He’s a guy I’ll always cheer for, and is good enough to win a Super Bowl for a talented team. Unfortunately, I just don’t think he can be great enough to put a team on his back. If the Bills believe they can build a great team around him, then maybe he’s the guy to get them to the big game. If not, they’ll need to draft a quarterback very soon and let him learn from Fitzpatrick whom by all accounts would seem to be a great mentor.

The Bills need to act now. For the first time since the 1900s, they have a core group of talented young players. They’ll have a relatively high draft pick this year and should pick the best player available. If they can get two legitimate starters from this year’s class, they should begin to morph into a contender. Be patient Bills fans. The reign of Brady will soon come to an end and with smart personnel moves the Bills will be in a position to seize the throne.

The Prototypical Player: A Response to Howard Bryant

If you don’t want to take the time to read Howard Bryant’s article (http://espn.go.com/espn/commentary/story/_/id/7303988/ncf-tim-tebow-hype-drowns-buzz-more-talented-rookies) I’ll summarize it for you.

• The NFL season revolves around Tebow

• The media and his supporters are fueling/creating his legend, but he isn’t a very good quarterback

• They are winning more because of their defense and running game than Tebow and if they had a better QB they wouldn’t need these late game heroics

• After this season, when coaches get more film on him he will taper off into oblivion

• There’s a small chance he enjoys continued success, but it’s minute at best

Some Quotes:
"Tim Tebow is an overblown phenomenon drowning out the buzz for more talented QB's"
"Fans flock to Tebow and his good-guy image, but it has little to do with merit"

You’ve probably heard these arguments from a number of analysts whose livelihood depends on them providing an entertaining read and being correct in their opinions. You can’t blame them for taking the obvious angle. Sports analysts often take the popular opinion. When they reach a fork in the road, they take the beaten path as opposed to the one marked ‘caution’. Their job depends on it.

It doesn’t take a football expert to watch Tebow play and realize that he has a long release; he’s inaccurate and doesn’t fit the mold of what is now perceived as a prototypical NFL quarterback. No one can really argue that. What we should start questioning is how important ‘looking the part’ really is.

There is no doubt that the Denver Broncos as a whole are playing much better football. Their defense has been one of the league’s best in recent weeks and John Fox deserves a lot of credit for that. So does Von Miller, Champ Bailey and the rest of the Denver defenders. Believe it or not, Tebow also deserves credit for this.

If you were to rank NFL players on passing accuracy, Tebow wouldn’t be in the top 30. If you were to rank them on Football IQ or Vision, he would rank near the bottom. However, if you ranked all NFL players on leadership and passion, he would be #1 by a considerable margin.

John Fox says that Tebow is exactly what you look for in a football player, maybe not a quarterback, but as a player, he’s the prototype. In the ultimate team game, is it so shocking that he would have success?

The problem is we’ve created this image of an NFL passer that transcends what football is all about. In order for a quarterback to be successful he has to be at least 6’4, throw the ball 100mph and it helps if he’s athletic. Evidently it doesn’t matter if a guy is an awful leader (Ryan Leaf) or has no passion for the game (JaMarcus Russell).

If you’ve never played football before you cannot fully understand the importance of momentum. All it takes is one play, one penalty, or one hit to turn the tide. I’ve coached teams that are much more talented than their opponents and believe me; the worst feeling is witnessing your opponent gain momentum as they take control of the game. You feel helpless. It seems like no matter what play you call, it doesn’t work.

The Denver Broncos have arguably more positive momentum right now than even the Green Bay Packers. Guys on that team are playing above their skill level. Tim Tebow doesn’t play defense, but if you think his leadership and passion hasn’t impacted their level of play, you clearly didn’t see Bronco rookie safety Rahim Moore run to the middle of the field after they beat the Chargers and do the ‘Tebow’. Maybe it’s because Tebow plays the game like a defensive player. Sure it’s nice to have a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but as a defender it might be kind of inspiring to see the leader of your team out there grinding out yards instead of complaining about late hits and dating super models.

Every now and then a player comes along that has an attribute that has never been seen before. Barry Sanders had unique agility. Peyton Manning’s football intelligence revolutionized the way Quarterbacks play in the NFL. Devin Hester’s speed and vision has made him a once in a generation returner. When it comes to leadership and passion, Tebow is unmatched. Not in this generation, and maybe not ever.

Football is a game for the dramatic. We’re to believe that on any given Sunday, anyone can win. It’s about blood, sweat and tears. It’s about brotherhood and overcoming the odds. The ultimate team sport. Tim Tebow might not personify a prototypical quarterback, but he personifies football. For the Broncos, that seems to be enough.

Don’t question why it’s working, or how long it will last. No one really knows the answer to those questions. Just sit back and enjoy watching a once in a lifetime player do what he does best. Win.

-Jansen-

Week 13 Pick'em

Season Record: 119-57 (#1 out of the 8 ESPN Analysts)

I didn’t get my pick in for the Thursday night game, but for the sake of honesty, I would’ve picked the Eagles and will therefore take a loss instead of a did not pick. Onto this week:


Tennessee @ Buffalo
Last week Stevie Johnson was one of the only receivers to not get stranded on Revis Island. Chris Johnson looked like his old self and the Titans are playing like a team that thinks they can catch the Texans.

Pick: Tennessee

Kansas City @ Chicago
The Chiefs defense played inspired football on Monday night against the Steelers. If the Chiefs couldn’t score more than 9 points at home against the Steelers, I have to think they won’t score more than 10 on the road in Chicago. Chicago’s defense knows it has to carry this team to the playoffs and I expect them to play like it.

Pick: Bears

Oakland @ Miami
Matt Moore has been exceptional since taking over. He doesn’t turn the ball over gets the ball into the hands of the Dolphins’ playmakers. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Palmer will manage this game better than Moore.

Pick: Raiders

Denver @ Minnesota
Tebowmania rolls into Minnesota this week. The Vikings are without Adrian Peterson and do not have a legitimate threat in the passing game outside of Percy Harvin. I can’t continue the trend this week of picking against Tebow.

Pick: Broncos

Indianapolis @ New England
What could’ve been….

Pick: Patriots

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
People don’t realize how much of Dalton’s success is a direct result of AJ Green. I’m a big supporter of both, but Green is one of the most complete receivers in the game already. The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road, should be ok at home.

Pick: Steelers

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
When the Bucs give the ball to Blount, he produces. When they put the ball in the hands of Josh Freeman, he’s buckled this year. Who would’ve thought that going into this one, Carolina has the QB advantage?

Pick: Buccaneers

New York Jets @ Washington
The Jets barely kept their season alive against the Bills last week. Mark Sanchez’s development has been stunted severely by the revolving door of receivers in Jet land. Good thing they face the ‘Skins who have a disastrous QB situation.

Pick: Jets

Atlanta @ Houston
TJ Yates gets the call for the Texans who will definitely be relying on their run game and #1 ranked defense to get them into the playoffs. Matt Ryan is going to do enough to force Yates into making plays and I just don’t see that happening.

Pick: Atlanta

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Although they are inconsistent after big wins, the Ravens have proved that when they want to, they can play with the best in the league. The Browns defense is the strength of this team, but the offence will need 15+ to have a chance against the Ravens – good luck.

Pick: Ravens

Green Bay @ New York Giants
The Giants got it handed to them by the Saints. The Packers offence is playing at a similar level.

Pick: Packers

Dallas @ Arizona
The Cowboys need to pick up a win in order to remain in the thick of the NFC East divisional race.  Kolb is set to return, but Rob Ryan should have an answer for him.

Pick: Cowboys

St. Louis @ San Francisco
If there’s one thing you should know about the 49ers this season it’s that they are always ready to play at the start of the game. They have exceeded all expectations on cross country road-trips and give Harbaugh a lot of credit for that. The Rams are dismal and with the number of early round picks they’ve made on offensive linemen, this team can’t protect Bradford.

Pick: 49ers

Detroit @ New Orleans
The Lions will likely be without Ndamukong Suh this week. This is one of those games they really need him. In order to beat New Orleans you need to be able to create pressure with your front four. Without Suh, I can see Brees picking up right where he left off against the Giants.

Pick: Saints

San Diego @ Jacksonville
Underperforming Team & Coach on the hot seat vs. Interim Coach & Rookie QB. I have to take the Chargers because no matter how bad Rivers has played this season he’s better than Gabbert is right now.

Pick: Chargers

Week 12 Pick'em

SEASON RECORD 109-51 (#1 out of 8 ESPN Analysts)  http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

Minnesota @ Atlanta

The Vikings are missing their main offensive weapon and I’ve lost all respect for their offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave. The Falcons have managed to get themselves back in the hunt and again find themselves in a must-win home game.

Pick: Falcons

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Bengals defense is much improved and I’m ready to say Andy Dalton is a more consistent quarterback than Colt McCoy. Expect a defensive struggle and a Bengals score late to win.

Pick: Bengals

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee
The Titans may go with Jake Locker at quarterback, although they shouldn’t rush the switch from Hasselbeck. The Bucs are the hardest team to figure out week-to-week. A heavy dose of LeGarette Blount will tip the scales in their favour.

Pick: Buccaneers

Carolina @ Indianapolis
I still think the Colts will win at least a game this season, but until they do, the smart money is on Carolina and Cam Newton.

Pick: Panthers

Arizona @ St. Louis
Arizona can play a close game against the league’s best or get blown out by the league’s worst. The Rams are somewhat the same but have been playing better as the season has gone on.

Pick: Rams

Buffalo @ New York Jets
The Bills dream season is over and they are struggling to stay above .500. A road game against an angry Jets team that just lost to Tim Tebow is not the right matchup for them.

Pick: Jets

Houston @ Jacksonville
Matt Leinart takes over in Houston. Expect a great team effort from the Texans as they attempt to rally around their backup quarterback.

Pick: Texans

Chicago @ Oakland
The Raiders are a much better team with Carson Palmer. They can run the ball against anyone and he will make enough plays in the passing game to get them the win. Caleb Hanie will need to be productive for the Bears to have a chance.

Pick: Raiders

Washington @ Seattle
Both teams are in need of some stability at the quarterback position. East coast team playing in Seattle is enough of a reason to pick the Seahawks.

Pick: Seahawks

New England @ Philadelphia
This is going to be a shootout. The Patriots defense is atrocious and banged up. The injury to Tom Brady’s elbow is evident and until he gets back to throwing with hall of fame type accuracy, the Patriots will have ups and downs on offence.

Pick: Eagles

Denver @ San Diego
Every time I bet against Tebow he wins. Here’s to hoping he does it again. The Broncos defense is playing as well as any unit in the league.

Pick: Chargers

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
Kyle Orton on a few days notice or Tyler Palko? Doesn’t matter, the Steelers will feast on whoever lines up under centre.

Pick: Steelers

New York Giants @ New Orleans
Saints coming off a bye week face a Giants team that is still nursing a lot of injuries. Expect a heavy dose of quick screens and hitches as Sean Payton attempts to slow the Giants pass rush.

Pick: Saints

Thanksgiving Turkey Special Picks

Packers @ Lions
The packers are on a mission and will be up for this one.  No one has been able to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Lions defence is good but not that good.

Pick: Packers

Miami @ Dallas
The Dolphins have been hot, but the Cowboys will be revved up at home and in need of a win for playoff implications. 

Pick: Cowboys

San Francisco @ Baltimore
The Ravens are beat up and Ray Lewis will be hindered.

Pick: 49ers

Week 11 Pick'em

Season Record 99-47 (#1 out of all ESPN Analysts)

Jacksonville @ Cleveland

Although the Browns are at home, the Jags run the ball extremely well and the Browns allow 143yds/game. Losing Rashean Mathis is an issue for the Jags but they can grind out a win.

Pick: Jaguars

Carolina @ Detroit
The Lions are coming off a bye week and have a very difficult schedule coming up. Long story short, if they can’t win this won, they won’t make the playoffs and you can bet Jim Schwartz has made that very clear to his team.

Pick: Lions

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay
The Buccaneers struggles this season can only be attributed to a young team going through a slump. They play their best football when they can mix up run and pass. Unfortunately they head to Green Bay where they will fall behind early and Freeman will have to go toe-to-toe with Rodgers.

Pick: Packers

Buffalo @ Miami
In the last month, these two teams have gone in different directions. Are the Bills nervous about the money they tied up in Fitzpatrick? They will be if they drop this one.

Pick: Bills

Oakland @ Minnesota
This should be a good game. Two teams that like to run the ball and utilize play-action. I’d like to pick the upset, but here’s the thing: the Vikings offensive play-calling has been atrocious this season and is one of the stories that has not gotten nearly enough publicity. How you end up in multiple 3rd and 20 situations with a rookie quarterback up against the defending world champions is ridiculous when you have Adrian Peterson.

Pick: Raiders

Dallas @ Washington
The Cowboys have found a starting running back and that will take some of the attention off other skill players like Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. The Redskins have been more competitive this year than last but they need a bona fide starting QB.

Pick: Cowboys

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The Bengals are without Leon Hall and the Ravens are without Ray Lewis. It’s not exactly an even trade off but the Bengals will be hard pressed to go into Baltimore and get a road win. The Ravens need to keep pace with the Steelers.

Pick: Ravens

Seattle @ St. Louis
A tough one to pick as both teams have been wildly inconsistent. The Seahawks beat the Ravens and the Rams beat the Saints within the last month.

Pick: Rams

Arizona @ San Francisco
John Skelton could play himself into a starting role with another performance like last week. That will be tough to do on the road against a Niners team that has not had a let down game yet this season. Remember the only reason they aren’t undefeated is due to that Overtime loss to Dallas.

Pick: 49ers

Tennessee @ Atlanta
This is by no means a cake walk for the Falcons as the Titans are a quality football club. Similar situation to the Lions in that they just can’t afford to lose this game.

Pick: Falcons

San Diego @ Chicago
Phil Rivers has struggled this season. I can’t imagine he will revert to his old self against a very tough Bears defense on the road.

Pick: Bears

Philadelphia @ New York
This could be an interesting game. The Eagles are now out of the playoff picture which could mean they come in and play loose. The Giants are at home in front of a national TV audience with a chance to put the final nail in the coffin against a divisional opponent. That’s a decent amount of pressure.

Pick: Eagles

Kansas City @ New England
Umm…..Tyler Palko.

Pick: Patriots

Thursday Pick'em

The Jets and the Broncos in what should be one of the more boring games, if you're not a fan of Tim Tebow.  I can't see Tebow having much success against the secondary and that defence will be charged up to prove that they won't be foiled by a gimmick offence.  If Tebow can win this one, people better start believing.

Pick: The Jets.

Week 10 Pick'em

Season Record: 90-40

Oakland @ San Diego

The Chargers went toe-to-toe with the Packers last week despite two pick-6’s by Phil Rivers. It’s way too soon to judge Carson Palmer as he is still getting familiar with things. Darren McFadden is out again.

Pick: Chargers

New Orleans @ Atlanta
Matt Ryan typically plays well at home and the Falcons have looked like their former selves in recent weeks. Atlanta has very athletic linebackers which is a great matchup against Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles.

Pick: Falcons

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
If Andy Dalton beats the Steelers I’m going to pass out.

Pick: Steelers

St. Louis @ Cleveland
The Rams beat the Saints one week and then lose to the Cardinals the next. The Browns are just as erratic and have no running game. I still think the Rams are underachieving and will finish the season around .500.

Pick: Rams

Buffalo @ Dallas
After a hot start, the Bills need to stop the bleeding as they may drop to 3rd in the division with a loss this week. It’s a toss up to me, so I’ll take the home team.

Pick: Cowboys

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
No pressure, a home game, a rookie quarterback, the best pass-rushers in the game – if they are going to win a game, this has to be it.

Pick: Colts

Denver @ Kansas City
Can anyone figure these two teams out? The Broncos adapted their offense much more to Tebow’s skill-set last week and it paid off. The Chiefs defense has played well despite missing Eric Berry.

Pick: Chiefs

Washington @ Miami
Roy Helu played well in his first real game as the lead ball carrier. The Dolphins are coming off their first win and are at home. Winning can become infectious.

Pick: Dolphins

Arizona @ Philadelphia
If the Eagles lose this game they don’t make the playoffs.

Pick: Eagles

Houston @ Tampa Bay
The Texans running game has been exceptional, which should come as no surprise as Gary Kubiak was an outstanding offensive line coach in Denver. I think this is the year the Texans make some noise in the playoffs. Tampa Bay just seems to be having an off year.

Pick: Texans

Tennessee @ Carolina
The Titans offence has struggled since losing Kenny Britt. Chris Johnson’s poor play is now a reality and not just a random event. The Titans have been kept in games by their defense but Cam Newton’s unique skill set will push their limits.

Pick: Panthers

Baltimore @ Seattle
Last time the Ravens beat the Steelers they laid an egg the following week. If you’re a riverboat gambler take the Seahawks, as it’s an east coast team, coming off a big win, travelling to the loudest stadium in football. For me, all that is negated by Tarvaris Jackson against the Ravens D.

Pick: Ravens

Detroit @ Chicago
The Bears showed everyone that they are for real. A big divisional game for both these teams will go a long way in deciding playoff seeding. The Lions come off a bye week but lack a real threat in the run game.

Pick: Bears

New York Giants @ San Francisco
This should be a great football game. The 49ers have taken control of the NFC West by playing great defense and running the ball. Eli Manning has been exceptional this season and the Giants have only gotten better with guys returning from injury. In what should be a coin flip, I’ll take the home team in a cross country battle.

Pick: 49ers

New England @ New York Jets
The Jets defense is playing very well and teams have figured out that if you press cover the Patriots, you will have success. The Patriots defense has struggled against the pass. When was the last time the Pats lost three in a row?

Pick: Patriots

Minnesota @ Green Bay
Just another Monday night party at Lambeau field.

Pick: Packers

Week 9 Pick'em

Season Record: 82-34 (Tied for #1 out of 8 ESPN analysts)

New York Jets @ Buffalo
The Bills have an opportunity to really put some distance between themselves and the Jets.  I'm not ready to give up on the Jets as a playoff team just yet.  Revis will remove Stevie Johnson so Fitzpatrick will need to get Scott Chandler and David Nelson involved early.

Pick: Jets

Seattle @ Dallas
The Seahawks couldn't win at home last week, how can I expect them to win a road game with the quarterbacks they have.

Pick: Cowboys

Atlanta @ Indianapolis
This could be a trap game for the Falcons....if it was against anyone but the Colts.

Pick: Falcons

Miami @ Kansas City
What a difference a month can make.  At the start of October, Todd Haley was on the hot seat.  As we move into November, he has the Chiefs right back in the playoff race.  The Dolphins really want Andrew Luck.

Pick: Chiefs

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Bucs always play well against divisional opponents so expect a close battle.  The Saints have looked 'off' the last few weeks and I have to think Sean Payton's injury has something to do with it.

Pick: Saints

San Francisco @ Washington
The 49ers didn't seem bothered when they made the cross-country trip to Detroit.  The Redskins are banged up and in need of a long-term answer at QB.

Pick: 49ers

Cleveland @ Houston
It's time for Houston to stop thinking about winning the division and start thinking about home-field advantage.  The Browns got bit by the Madden Curse.

Pick: Texans

Cincinnati @ Tennessee
I was a believer in Andy Dalton, but never thought he's be playing this well so early in his career.  Does anyone know where Chris Johnson is?

Pick: Bengals

Denver @ Oakland
We'll see how much Carson Palmer progressed over the bye week.  Could this be Tebow's last start...ever?

Pick: Raiders

New York Giants @ New England
The Manning-Brady matchup!  The Patriots rarely lose two games in a row.  They're at home and the Giants secondary isn't the greatest.

Pick: Patriots

St. Louis @ Arizona
Kevin Kolb might be out and the Rams put it to the Saints last week.  Even without Bradford, Steven Jackson could be the difference.

Pick: Rams

Green Bay @ San Diego
We'll see if the bye week slowed down the Packers momentum.  Somehow I doubt it.

Pick: Packers

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
The war continues in Pittsburgh Sunday night with the Ravens coming to town.  Since the Ravens blew out the Steelers in the opener, both teams have kind of switched paths.  The Steelers sit atop the AFC while the Ravens have struggled considerably on offence.

Pick: Steelers

Chicago @ Philadelphia
The Eagles look like they have finally figured things out.  If they can limit Matt Forte, the Bears are finished.

Pick: Eagles

A Reason to Hop-Off the Lions Bandwagon

For quite sometime, the Detroit Lions have been awful. They are the only franchise in history to finish a season 0-16 and haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. That’s probably why the casual NFL fan was happy to see them get off to such a great start this year. It wasn’t hard to cheer for a franchise that was finally winning after decades of ineptitude. As we reach halftime of the NFL regular season, the Lions supporters are dwindling, and it’s their own arrogant fault.


It all starts with their head coach, Jim Schwartz. In NFL circles, it’s widely accepted that Schwartz has a bit of a temper and coaches with a fiery passion that can sometimes cross the line. He’s been caught on national TV yelling obscenities at Dez Bryant and almost got in a fist fight with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh in the post-game ‘pleasantries’. I will defend Schwartz regarding the Harbaugh incident as he was not the instigator, but he is one of only a few NFL coaches that would’ve ran after Harbaugh through a crowd of officials and security to try and get at him. As I said, it’s clear he coaches with an edge – and it’s working for the 6-2 Lions.

What isn’t working is the lack of respect they show for opponents both during the games, and after. If you turn on a Lions game I can almost guarantee that you will witness numerous occasions where Lions players will taunt their opponent after a tackle, try and insult them and get in their face as they walk back to the huddle, or take the occasional ‘extra’ shot after the whistle has gone. Ndamukong Suh continues to tell everyone that he isn’t a dirty player, but his numerous illegal hits on quarterbacks would suggest otherwise. Even this week, LB Stephen Tulloch got a sack on Tim Tebow and mocked him by “Tebowing” over him. While that was clearly all in good fun, what happened after the game was just uncalled for.

An ‘unnamed’ player told reporters after the game that Tebow was a ‘joke’ and reiterated "Come on – that’s your quarterback? Seriously?” Just goes to show what type of man that player is that he made the statement anonymously. Other players such as Chris Houston and Cliff Avril spoke out implying that Tebow doesn’t belong in the NFL. Whether they turn out to be right or wrong, the comments are unnecessary and show everyone just how immature the Lions really are.

If you think I’m being too harsh, ask yourself one question. If the Packers, Patriots or Steelers had pounded the Broncos in a similar fashion, do you think you would hear a peep from any of their players regarding Tebow other than “we made it tough on him out there today.” If you’re not a fan of the three teams I mentioned, just remember they’ve collectively won 6 of the last 10 Super Bowls. They must be doing something right. Those teams know that there is no sense in kicking a team or player when they’re down. I guess the Lions just haven’t won enough to know how to win with class.

As the bandwagon filled up this pre-season, I was happy for the Lions. Even though I thought Suh took it too far sometimes, he is a real treat to watch. I admire Stafford for coming back from injury to play as well as he has, and am happy that Calvin Johnson finally has been able to show how good of a receiver he really is. It’s a shame that all of this has me turning against the upstart Lions. You’d think a team so used to losing would appreciate what it’s like to be on the other side.

Week 8 Pick'em

Season Record 73-30 

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

In their first two primetime games, the Colts had inspired outings.  Last week against the Saints, they looked like a team that had lost all will to compete.  This is a game they could surprise in but I can’t pick a team that looked as bad as the Colts did last week.

Pick: Titans

New Orleans @ St. Louis

The Rams might be without Sam Bradford again.  Even if he plays, the Rams have had a really poor season and the Saints look like a team that is bound for the playoffs.  

Pick: Saints

Miami @ New York Giants

The Dolphins had no business losing last week, unless Tim Tebow actually is the second coming.  The Giants won’t need divine intervention at home with a number of key players returning from injury.

Pick: Giants

Minnesota @ Carolina

A matchup of rookie QB’s with Ponder and Newton.  Advantage Newton.  However, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson and are better everywhere else.

Pick: Vikings

Arizona @ Baltimore

The Ravens looked atrocious last week on Monday night in Jacksonville.  Joe Flacco needs to get this offence going if they want to make any noise the playoffs.  Expect a lot of Ray Rice today.

Pick: Ravens

Jacksonville @ Houston

The Texans are well on their way to a division title.  An inspired performance on Monday night showed the nation that they can play against the best.  Tough for a rookie QB to win a road game on a short week against a better football team.

Pick: Texans

Washington @ Buffalo

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the guy in Buffalo (6 year $59 million).  The crowd will be charged up at Ralph Wilson and Washington comes in on a losing streak, looking like a team in disarray.

Pick: Bills

Detroit @ Denver

I really want to pick Denver for Tebow magic.  The Lions aren’t great against the run but the Broncos are without Willis McGahee.  Even if Matt Stafford doesn’t play, the Lions should pull this one out.  I will openly be cheering against myself in this one.

Pick: Lions

New England @ Pittsburgh

I don’t think I’ll ever bet against Bill Belichick coming off a bye week.

Pick: Patriots

Cleveland @ San Francisco

Jim Harbaugh has the 49ers playing inspired football.  The Browns offence is outmatched against the 49ers defence.

Pick: 49ers

Cincinnati @ Seattle

Seattle has been hot and cold all season.  Rookie QB Andy Dalton will have to be sharp today without Cedric Benson in the lineup.  I think the loudest stadium in football will make the difference.

Pick: Seahawks

Dallas @ Philadelphia

It’s time for the Eagles to get back into the hunt.  This’ll be a very entertaining night game for all football fans.

Pick: Eagles

San Diego @ Kansas City

The Chiefs are on a 3 game winning streak, but that will end against the Chargers.  San Diego has played much better than usual this early in the season and have set themselves up for another division title.

Pick: Chargers.

Losers

You know what it’s like to lose. Everyone does. Even if you’ve never played competitive sports, you’ve experienced a similar feeling. It may have come from being passed over for a job promotion or watching the girl you like start dating someone else, but you’ve felt it and you know that as the stakes get higher, the feeling gets worse.


On Saturday, Texas Tech upset #1 ranked Oklahoma which will likely cause them to miss the BCS Championship game. The Oklahoma players were distraught, some in tears, many in disbelief, but none of them smiling. If you managed to stay up for conclusion of the 62-7 beat down New Orleans put on Indianapolis Sunday night, you would’ve witnessed a different scene. Within seconds of the final buzzer, Colts players were seen laughing and joking with Saints players on the field in what looked like a fraternity reunion. At midfield, Jeff Saturday and Drew Brees hugged, laughed and joked around right in front of the camera. I know that these guys worked together closely on the CBA as NFLPA reps, but this looked ridiculous. Here you are, a team that is used to winning ten games a season, sitting at 0-7 after a truly embarrassing loss on primetime television and you look like you couldn’t care whether you won or lost. As a side note, Peyton Manning was shown walking off the field with a scowl immediately following the game – talking to no one on the way out (funny that a guy not playing seemed to take the loss the hardest).

Look, I realize that these guys are all friends and some played college together, but there is a time and place for the niceties. Believe me the Colts aren’t the only ones who engage in ‘post-loss laughs’ (although having a ‘bro-out’ after getting professionally embarrassed is perhaps a bit worse). All season I’ve seen this type of post-game behaviour. As a fan, this would infuriate me. How could a loss seem to bother me more than the players I cheer for? I don’t condone the confrontation between Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh last week, but at least we saw some raw emotion. Maybe that’s why their teams are a collective 10-3.

Jeff Saturday may be able to compartmentalize losing and move on immediately. He could be childhood friends with Drew Brees and may only get the opportunity to see him once a year. Even still, wait until the cameras are off and maybe tone down the giggles – for everyone’s sake. Supporters of NCAA football tend to argue that it’s more entertaining than the NFL because college players care more about winning and aren’t playing for money. I’m starting to agree…

Week 7 Pick'em

Season Record: 62-28


Seattle @ Cleveland
At first I was surprised the Seahawks didn’t go after Carson Palmer but after seeing the market price, they were smart to stay away. Cleveland had high hopes for this season, they will be lost if they lose this one.

Pick: Browns

Atlanta @ Detroit
The Falcons are a playoff team and Detroit may have a let down after last weeks highly charged affair. Game of the week for sure.

Pick: Falcons

Houston @ Tennessee
Big divisional game and the Texans will be without Andre Johnson. The Texans can’t let the gift of a Manning-less Colts season go to waste.

Pick: Texans

Denver @ Miami
It’s Tebow time in Denver. The Dolphins are athletic on defense but Matt Moore is less than inspiring.

Pick: Broncos

San Diego @ New York Jets
The Jets problems are real. Their offensive line is not nearly what it was two seasons ago and Greene is not the type of back to make plays on his own. Sanchez cannot carry the team through the air. Rivers can.

Pick: Chargers

Chicago @ Tampa Bay
The annual London game is actually important this year. The Bucs are a bit banged up on defense and Matt Forte has shown he is one of the top playmakers in the league. No Blount for the Bucs.

Pick: Bears

Washington @ Carolina
I’m really surprised the Redskins went to John Beck. Grossman had one bad game and got the hook. I don’t know what that does for team morale but I can tell you one thing – the Panthers know who their QB is and they are excited.

Pick: Panthers

Kansas City @ Oakland
The Carson Palmer Era begins in Raider Nation. Expect them to pound the rock and grind out a win. In a few weeks Palmer will be fine, but it is very difficult to get comfortable with receivers in a week.

Pick: Raiders

Pittsburgh @ Arizona
The Steelers are better than the Cardinals. Everywhere.

Pick: Steelers

St. Louis @ Dallas
I fully expect the Rams to play better as the season continues. A 7-9 record wouldn’t shock me but Dallas is a better team than their record indicates. They need this one in Jerry’s world.

Pick: Cowboys

Green Bay @ Minnesota
The Packers have a realistic chance at running the table this year. Minnesota is not a team that will derail them.

Pick: Packers

Indianapolis @ New Orleans
Breakout game for Mark Ingram as they will want to be more balanced to prevent Freeney and Mathis from wreaking havoc on Brees. Could Manning be the MVP this year?

Baltimore @ Jacksonville
Interesting to see how rookie Blaine Gabbert will respond to an amped up Ravens defense on Monday night.

Pick: Ravens

Week 6 Pick'em

Season Record: 52-25

Carolina @ Atlanta

I want to pick the Panthers here, but the Falcons are just too good of a team to drop a must win game at home.

Pick: Falcons

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati
The Colts have entered a downward spiral. They battled hard in their tough primetime matchups during weeks 3 and 4, but gave up a lead late last week against the Chiefs. The Bengals are simply playing better football right now.

Pick: Bengals

San Francisco @ Detroit
Everyone expected the Lions to be good but not this good. No one expected the Niners to be good. New week, same question, who can cover Megatron?

Pick: Lions

St. Louis @ Green Bay
Trap game for the Packers but they are too good to let this one get away from them. If you bet vs. the spread, take the Rams. Coming off the bye week, with a healthy Steven Jackson, the Rams will be much tougher going forward.

Pick: Packers

Buffalo @ New York G
The Bills constantly amaze me and beating the Eagles last week (who were desperate) was a real statement. Should be an ugly weather day in Jersey.

Pick: Giants

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh
Just like the Rams game, if the Steelers were on the road, I’d be tempted to pick the Jags. Steelers, at home, with a rookie QB usually is auto-victory territory for the Steelers. They just haven’t seemed completely like themselves yet this year…

Pick: Steelers

Philadelphia @ Washington
Last time Michael Vick played against the Redskins he put on a clinic. He won’t repeat that performance but the reality is the Eagles are at the point where they NEED to win this game. If not, the division will likely go to someone else. Can Grossman take control of the NFC East?

Pick: Eagles

Cleveland @ Oakland
West coast road trip for the Browns. Contract disputes with Hillis. Raiders first home game since the passing of Al Davis.

Pick: Raiders

Houston @ Baltimore
The Ravens are coming off a bye week, with a home game. Houston is reeling after last weeks loss to the Raiders and are missing two of their best players in Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.

Pick: Ravens

Dallas @ New England
I think Dallas is still way under the radar. Sure they played very poorly in the second half against the Lions, but Detroit is a 5-0 ball club. The Boys beat the Niners who are 4-1. Close battle but the Pats are at home. In Jerry’s world it’d be a different story.

Pick: Patriots

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
If the Bucs simply lost to the Niners last week I’d have more faith. They got blown away. Darren Sproles is much more effective than Reggie Bush ever was.

Pick: Saints

Minnesota @ Chicago
The Vikings have a solid pass rush and Adrian Peterson. The Bears O-line is atrocious and they let Jahvid Best run through them last week.

Pick: Vikings

Miami @ New York J
Miami is awful and Brandon Marshall is already talking about getting ejected in the 2nd quarter. If Matt Moore leads the Fins to a road win over Rex Ryan’s defense he might resign.

Pick: Jets

Week 5 Pick'em

Season Record: 45-19

Philadelphia @ Buffalo


It appears that the Bills have peaked and I don’t think it’s possible for the Eagles to do any worse. Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie are great man defenders but struggle in zone. The Eagles love their zone blitzes but need to adjust to put their talent in better, more comfortable positions.

Pick: Eagles

New Orleans @ Carolina

Going into the season most people thought this would be an easy W for the Saints. It won’t be easy but they should come away with the win. That being said, teams should now understand that Newton has the ability to beat anyone in the league on any given day.

Pick: Saints

Oakland @ Houston

The Raiders are the worst travelling team over the last few years. Andre Johnson is lost but the defense is playing much better and the Texans will just have to lean on the running game a bit more.

Pick: Texans

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

The Chiefs got their first win last week. The Colts get there’s this week. Indy has been competitive against two quality opponents in the last two weeks. The Chiefs are passing more with Jamaal Charles out, and the Colts D thrives against the pass.

Pick: Colts

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville

Another matchup of two rookie quarterbacks. Since when did the Bengals beating the Bills ever mean anything about how good either team was? What a crazy year it’s been.

Pick: Bengals

Arizona @ Minnesota

The Vikings could easily be 3-1 if they didn’t have a coaching staff. Arizona struggles on the road and their run defense is suspect.

Pick: Vikings

Seattle @ New York G

The Seahawks were competitive last week against the Falcons. They run into one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. Tarvaris Jackson will be running for his life from the Giants pass rush.

Pick: Giants

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

The Steelers are banged up, the Titans and especially Matt Hasselbeck have looked great. I want to take the Titans but based on history I have to take the Steelers at home. If they drop this one it will be very clear they are declining.

Pick: Steelers

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

The surprise 49ers and the young Bucs should produce a great game. In a league that relies on quarterback play I’ll take Josh Freeman over Alex Smith all day, everyday.

Pick: Buccaneers

San Diego @ Denver

The Broncos are not a very good team. Kyle Orton has been inconsistent (something he was NOT last year). Rivers gift to his division rival Broncos is putting them one week closer to Tebow time.

Pick: Chargers

New York J @ New England

The Patriots will be out for revenge after they were bounced from the playoffs last year by the Jets. The Patriots defense is the worst in the league but they are good at stopping the run. With Nick Mangold not at 100% the Jets will be forced to put the ball in the air. Brady can outduel Sanchez.

Pick: Patriots

Green Bay @ Atlanta
Another playoff rematch in Atlanta. The Packers are playing better than anyone right now. I just have a feeling the Falcons will want this one more. They are behind the eight-ball already, at home, on a Sunday night.

Pick: Falcons

Chicago @ Detroit
A key divisional matchup on Monday night. Throw out everything and ask yourself one question. How do you stop Megatron?

Pick: Lions

Week 4 Pick'em

Season Record 34-14

Carolina @ Chicago
Newton won his first game but looked a lot more like a rookie than he did in the first two weeks.  Chicago's defence at home will be his toughest test yet.

Pick: Bears

Buffalo @ Cincinnati
The Bills are off to a hot start, the Bengals could stay in the thick of the AFC North race with a win.

Pick: Bills

Tennessee @ Cleveland
Two teams that are hard to get a read on.  The Browns will be tough at home and with Hillis returning.  The Titans need a big game from Chris Johnson now that Kenny Britt is lost for the season.

Pick: Browns

Detroit @ Dallas
Big time game for the Lions as they face a Cowboy team that needs a win to keep pace within the division.  Megatron will need to dominate, as he has this season.

Pick: Lions

Minnesota @ Kansas City
The Vikings have lost two games because of awful play-calling in the 2nd half.  The Chiefs just don't have the same talent as the Vikings and I think AP will run wild with a lot of touches.

Pick: Vikings

Washington @ St. Louis
The Rams have really disappointed so far this year.  I like the way the Skins are playing but Bradford can't go to 0-4.  He just can't.

Pick: Rams

San Fran @ Philadelphia
Dream team needs to wake up and stop dreaming.  It's time.

Pick: Eagles

New Orleans @ Jacksonville
Brees vs Gabbert.  The Saints should blow the Jags away.

Pick: Saints

Pittsburgh @ Houston
Could be a playoff preview in Houston.  The Texans had a chance for a statement win last week in New Orleans.  They get another chance this week.

Pick: Houston

New York G @ Arizona
Both secondaries are awful.  Expect a shootout that the Giants win.

Pick: Giants

Atlanta @ Seattle
Falcons are a contender, Seahawks are not.

Pick: Falcons

Denver @ Green Bay
See previous explanation.

Pick: Packers

New England @ Oakland
The Pats rarely lose back to back games.  They aren't terrible against the run either.

Pick: Patriots

Miami @ San Diego
Tony Sparano is likely out of a job soon.  The Chargers are still gaining momentum but the injury to Gates is troubling.

Pick: Chargers

New York J @ Baltimore
Should be a good old fashioned slobberknocker.  Jets not running the ball well

Pick: Ravens

Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay
Bucs need to win the easy ones.  Colts D will need another inspirational performance.

Pick: Bucs

Enjoy the Party Buffalo

The David versus Goliath show that took place at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday was one for the ages. The dreadnought that is the New England Patriots led by dark wizard Bill Belichick came into the game having won the last 15 against the misfit Bills. The bills, a team of castoffs and undrafted free agents, put together a 21-point comeback at home and gave one of the rowdiest crowds in recent memory a real gift. For the first time in more than a decade, optimism is running wild in Upstate New York. Enjoy it Bills fans, it isn’t going to last.


Let me first say that I hope what I am about to write is wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see a team like this excel and get into a playoff race. I just notice a trend that is hard to ignore.

Last season Fitzpatrick took over in week 4 and until Halloween, had a completion percentage of 63.5% with and 11-4 Touchdown to Interception ratio. For the remainder of 2010, he did not have another game where he broke 61%. His TD:INT ratio dropped to 12:11 the rest of the way. The first thing you’ll say is that his opponents probably weren’t as strong. Surprisingly enough, Fitz’s games before Halloween were @NE, NYJ, JAX,@BAL, no easy group to pass against.

Fitzpatrick has excelled because he is a smart passer who can read a defense and quickly know where to put the ball. As a coach, I’ll take a guy who can do that over one with all the physical tools who can’t understand concepts. He is accurate with the ball and has great timing with his receivers. The problem is he has questionable arm strength. It wouldn’t be a big deal, except for the fact that he plays in Buffalo where conditions are amongst the worst in the NFL. I went back and checked his post-halloween numbers in 2010. His best games were in Miami and Cincinnati. I checked the weather in Cincinnati that day and it was unusually warm and sunny with very little wind. There’s a trend forming and for Bills fan’s it isn’t a good one.

Look, I really like Ryan Fitzpatrick and I really hope I’m wrong. The Bills fans deserve a team that is competitive and it is really hard to cheer against a group of guys who had to work to get to where they are. Can you honestly sit there and see the Patriots missing the playoffs? What about the Jets? Both those teams get better as the weather gets worse (especially the Jets. If I were the Bills I would wait to sign Fitzpatrick to a lucrative extension until I see how the back nine goes this year.

Week 3 Pick'em

Season Record 23-9

San Francisco @ Cincinnati 

Dalton’s excellent play has been overshadowed by Cam Newton.  He is missing a number of his playmakers on offense this week.  Am I actually picking the Niners on the road?

Pick: 49ers

New England @ Buffalo

If the Bills win this game I will lose all confidence in my ability to understand the NFL.  They have been impressive, but this is Tom Brady were talking about.  Not the Chiefs or Raiders.  If you don’t love both of these quarterbacks I hate you.

Pick: Patriots

Houston @ New Orleans

This is another one of those games that will go a long way in establishing the Texans as a team to be taken seriously.  Unfortunately for them, they enter the Super Dome.  Brees and Co. will win a shootout.

Pick: New Orleans

New York G @ Philadelphia

The Giants have been decimated by injuries and Manning looks shaky as a result.  The Eagles can’t go 1-2.

Pick: Eagles

Miami @ Cleveland

Hillis out?  That limits the ability of the Browns to control the clock.  I’m not sure they can keep up with the Dolphins.

Pick: Dolphins

Denver @ Tennessee

Receiver injuries last week resulted in Tebow lining up out wide.  That’s not a good thing for the Broncos.  Chris Johnson should get back on track this week, if not, when?

Pick: Titans

Detroit @ Minnesota 

Last week Adrian Peterson played like a beast, and it still wasn’t enough to get the Vikings the win.  I don’t know what else he can do against the Lions.

Pick: Lions

Jacksonville @ Carolina

An early matchup of the two highest drafted QB’s this year.  Newton has been exceptional, and you know Gabbert has been itching to show off his skills.  Panthers being at home makes the difference but it’ll be close.

Pick: Panthers

Kansas City @ San Diego

This is one of my survival picks this week.  Chargers at home should blow the Chiefs away.

Pick: Chargers

New York J @ Oakland

Trap game?  Maybe, but I still think the Jets defense is too good to let this one get out of hand.  The Raiders showed they can’t close out games last week.

Pick: Jets

Baltimore @ St Louis

On again off again?  That logic would suggest the Ravens win this one.  I like the Rams young team but without Steven Jackson, I don’t know that Bradford has enough weapons to win it alone.

Pick: Ravens

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

This should be a war, big divisional game early between 1-1 teams.  The Falcons had an emotional win last week.  I just have a feeling the Bucs are going to be tuned up for this one.

Pick: Buccaneers

Arizona @ Seattle

The Seahawks get Sidney Rice back this week and are always a tough opponent at home.  The Cardinals are much improved with Kolb at the helm and Jackson shouldn’t be a starter.

Pick: Cardinals

Green Bay @ Chicago

The Bears are dinged up, but at home will prove to be a tough out.  The Bears offensive line is missing Gabe Carimi.  If Cutler makes it through the game alive, it’ll be close.  I’ll still take Mr. Rodgers.

Pick: Packers

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Well, here we go with the primetime games that suck now with Manning out.  Hopefully the Steelers are up by 30 at half so I can get some sleep.

Pick: Steelers

Washington @ Dallas

Dallas is the better football team, but the Redskins hot start is not by accident.  Shanahan showing that he is still a great coach.

Pick: Cowboys