The Patrick Peterson Debate

Just over a year ago the most dominant player in the NFL playoffs wasn’t Drew Brees or Peyton Manning.  It was Darrell Revis.  He completely shut down the likes of Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson and anyone else he lined up against.  He continued offering Revis Island vacations to opposing receivers this year and almost helped the Jets reach the Super Bowl.  

Who is the hottest free agent this season?  That’s easy, he’s the only guy that all 32 teams would love to have and his last name sounds like awesome.  Nnamdi Asomugha will be paid a pretty penny this summer by a team in need of a true shutdown corner.  It would seem that the corner position is pretty valuable in the scheme of things.

Why then is Patrick Peterson, the consensus ‘best player in the draft’, sliding down mock drafts?  Analysts constantly point out that “no corner has ever been taken in the top 3” or argue that “you can’t pay top 3 money to a corner”.  Really?  But you can pay top 3 money to JaMarcus Russell?  Don’t get me wrong I understand the finances of the pick and that the cornerback position on average does not receive the same money as say a quarterback or defensive linemen, but we’re not talking about an average player here.  I would feel a lot more comfortable paying a large sum of money to Peterson than I would Cam Newton, or Blaine Gabbert.  

In Jon Gruden’s book “Do You Love Football”, he says that when building a team you first need to get a franchise quarterback, then a shutdown corner, and then either a defensive end or offensive tackle.  If you’re Carolina, you need to decide whether or not Jimmy Clausen can still be the guy (I believe he can be).  If they don’t think Clausen has it in him, I can see them going with Gabbert or Newton.  The Broncos at #2 overall have a fair amount of money tied up in Champ Bailey and need help along the defensive line.  Although I would pick Peterson, I can’t fault them for taking Marcel Dareus to fill the void at defensive tackle.  Here’s where it gets interesting.  The Bills, Bengals and Cardinals all need franchise quarterbacks but there aren’t enough to go around.  Sure you’re going to hear the arguments about how guys like Da’Quan Bowers, Von Miller and Robert Quinn can all get after the quarterback and that is more important.  But now it’s time to go back to the Jets and Revis.  Tom Brady enjoyed one of the most prolific stretches a quarterback has ever had until he met the Jets in the playoffs. He never looked comfortable in the pocket, was hit a lot and ultimately lost the game.  The Jets didn’t have one guy in their front seven that I would classify as a “dangerous” pass rusher (proof of this is that getting a pass rusher is need #1 for the Jets this offseason).  So how come Brady struggled?  It’s because the coverage downfield was exceptional.  He had a lot of time in the pocket, but simply had nowhere to throw the ball.  

Where Peterson goes on draft day is still a mystery (although someone needs to get fired if he gets by San Fran at #7).  Somehow the best player in the draft, at a key position, is not worth a top 5 pick.  Go figure.

2011 NFL Draft Quarterback Value Rankings

When analyzing the quarterback class of 2011 two things stand out.  The athleticism and depth of this group is outstanding.  There are six quarterbacks that are 1^st or 2^nd round prospects.  Four of them ran between 4.6 and 4.65 in the 40 yard dash and average 6’3 230 pounds.  The trick is none of them are sure fire picks to succeed at the next level.  The second tier quarterbacks such as Mallett (character), Locker (Accuracy) and Ponder (Injury) all have individual issues but still have the talent to be first round picks.  The reason they are not slated to go in the top 20 is because the two guys ahead of them are the most physically gifted quarterbacks to come out of college in years.  Newton and Gabbert are raw but if they get with a coach who can develop them there is no ceiling to their ability.  Despite the tremendous athleticism, I don’t see the overall importance.  Of the top quarterbacks in the league (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger and Vick) only Vick and Rodgers run faster than a 4.9 and Brady and Manning are probably the least athletic quarterbacks in the league.  The big key is that defensive players are way more athletic in the NFL and, unless you are Mike Vick, your threat in the run game is mitigated to a great extent. Below is a ranking of the top quarterbacks based on their value relative to where they will go in the draft. 

1. Ryan Mallett 

Ryan Mallet has easily the best arm in the draft.  He has better accuracy and arm strength than both Newton and Gabbert.  As a bonus, Mallett doesn’t have their footwork issues and is a classic dropback passer.  The questions with Mallett are issues about his character.  I think Mallett is driven enough to succeed and I am buying-in.  Whatever team decides to grab him late in the first round will be glad they did too.

2. Christian Ponder

Ponder is another guy who’s stock has been rising lately and with good reason.  He could slide to the middle of the 2^nd round despite having the ability of a late first round pick.  Ponder has a good arm and won the 2010 James Tatum Award that goes to the nation’s top scholar-athlete.  His intelligence shows on the field with his ability to read defenses.  Look for teams like the Titans, Dolphins or Jaguars to grab him with their 2^nd round pick at great value.

3. Andy Dalton

Dalton has an underrated arm and won TCU their first ever Rose Bowl this season.  There will likely be 5 quarterbacks that go ahead of Dalton which will drop him to the 3^rd maybe even the 4^th round.  I think Dalton has a realistic chance to be a Kevin Kolb type quarterback, and if not, there is still value in having a talent like him as a backup in the middle of the draft.  

4. Jake Locker 

Locker is a tricky prospect to evaluate.  He is a tremendous athlete, a natural leader and has a strong arm.  Sounds great until you realize that he never completed more than 60% of his passes in college.  Last season he would’ve been a top 10 pick and there was a trend that his accuracy was improving, however this season he regressed in that department (58.4% to 55% completion percentage) and that has teams worried.  It could be a mechanics issue but, if nothing else, accuracy wins at the next level.  I probably like Locker the most of all the QB’s in this draft, but I’m not sure accuracy can be taught.  

5. Cam Newton

Newton has the most upside of any passer in this draft.  He played one year of division 1 football and won the Heisman trophy and a national championship.  He has a chance to be a superstar in the NFL if he gets paired with the right coaching staff who takes the time to develop his natural ability.  On draft day, Newton will likely go in the top 5.  QBs that went in the top five in the last five drafts are: Sam Bradford (#1), Matt Stafford (#1), Mark Sanchez (#5), Matt Ryan (#3), Jamarcus Russell (#1) and Vince Young (#3).  Aside from Russell, all the other players have had success in the league; however I think if you asked Tennessee now, they would say VY wasn’t worth the 3^rd overall pick.  The questions surrounding Newton are numerous and therefore I think where he goes in the draft will be too high risk to warrant good value.  If he slides out of the top 10 (unlikely) the pick makes more sense.

6. Blaine Gabbert

Reference the list above of quarterbacks who went in the top five and ask yourself if Gabbert grades out as highly as those guys.  The answer is no.  Like Newton he is also a tremendous athlete whose game needs refining to succeed at the NFL level.  Gabbert will go in the top 5 and again I worry that the value isn’t there to take him so high.  Gabbert is a hard worker but top 5 is too high for him, especially considering the depth of the 2011 QB class.

If you follow the NFL you have no doubt heard the statement that you need a franchise quarterback to win a Super Bowl and analysts use that logic to explain why guys like Newton and Gabbert could/should be taken in the top five.  Only half of that argument is correct.  Yes, you do need a franchise quarterback to threaten for a world championship, but you don’t need to get that guy in the top 5 all the time.  The following quarterbacks are solidified as quality starters going into the 2011 season and roughly half of them were drafted outside of the top 15.

Peyton Manning	(1)	Josh Freeman	(17)
Sam Bradford	(1)	Joe Flacco	(18)
Matt Stafford	(1)	Aaron Rodgers	(24)
Eli Manning	(1)	Drew Brees	(32)
Mike Vick	(1)	Matt Schaub	(90)
Matt Ryan	(3)	Tom Brady	(199)
Phil Rivers	(4)	Matt Cassel	(230)
Mark Sanchez	(5)	Tony Romo	(N/A)
Jay Cutler	(11)
Ben Roethlisberger	(11)

Considering the questions with Newton and Gabbert, as well as the depth of this class, teams in the top 10 would be wise to pick one of the many talented positional players and then target a franchise quarterback by trading up into the late 1^st or early 2^nd round.  That’s where the value is.

2011 NFL Mock Draft (What I Would Do)

The NFL Scouting Combine is all in the rearview mirror and the draft board is starting to take shape.  In the coming weeks, I will release two different types of mock drafts.  This one represents what I would do if I was the GM in charge of each team.  The point here is not to predict what teams will do, but what I think they should do.  This will be the one to re-visit a year from now to see how teams' fortunes may have been different had they followed my madness.  Let's get at it...

1. Carolina Panthers – Marcell Dareus DT (Alabama)

The success of Ron Rivera’s tenure in Carolina could hinge on who he takes with the #1 overall pick in April.  They do not have a pick in the 2^nd round and for a team that needs to overhaul the defensive personnel to fit the new 3-4 scheme, they need to hit on this pick.  Dareus overtook Nick Fairley as the best defensive tackle in the draft after he blew up the combine.  He is incredibly athletic and explosive and at 319 pounds, he will play be a lot to handle at the end position and can even kick inside to play nosetackle on passing downs.  Fairley doesn’t convert as well to the 3-4 and is suited to play the 3-technique in a 4-3.  If the Panthers think Cam Newton can become a franchise quarterback they should take him, but if I’m Ron Rivera, I’m not willing to risk my first head coaching job on Cam Newton.

2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson CB (LSU)

Patrick Peterson is probably the safest pick in the top 10.  He is a physical freak at 6 feet and 219 pounds and ran a 4.34 in the 40. He was also the SEC special teams player of the year as a returner.  With Champ Bailey likely moving to safety (if not this year, next), they will have a need at corner and having Bailey as a mentor will only aid the development of Peterson.  It was close between Peterson, Fairley and Robert Quinn but ultimately the draft is deep enough at defensive line that John Fox can upgrade it in the 2^nd round. 

3. Buffalo Bills – Cam Newton QB Auburn

The Buffalo Bills should targeting a run at the playoffs 3 to 4 years from now.  There is not enough talent on the team to consider them a contender in a division that includes the Jets and the Patriots in the short term.  Start Ryan Fitzpatrick for at least 13 games and let Newton learn under a Harvard guy.  He fits well into Chan Gailey’s offense and if he can learn to read a defense will be a star.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – Robert Quinn DE (North Carolina)

Quinn didn’t burn up the 40 like I expected but he is explosive at 265 pounds and is only 20 years old.  He could develop into a Dwight Freeney type pass rusher who plays angry.  The Bengals are going to need a Quarterback as Carson will be traded, but that trade will likely yield them an additional second round pick, that they could use to target a QB that slides out of the 1^st round.    I debated AJ Green (WR is also a position of great need) but Quinn is too good to pass up. 

5. Arizona Cardinals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)

The Cardinals seem to have convinced Larry Fitzgerald to stay, but only if they make an effort to put top talent around him.  That doesn’t mean only at the quarterback position.  Yes, the Cardinals QB’s were awful this season and that was a big reason for Fitz’s fall in production, but it is also due to the departure of Anquan Boldin.  Bring in Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb with the 2^nd round pick (and maybe a bit more), add Green and this offence could jump right back to prominence. 

6. Cleveland Browns – Da’Quan Bowers DE (Clemson)

If AJ Green goes to the Cardinals, expect the Browns to be making calls asking what it would take to get him.  If the asking price is too much, Bowers is a nice consolation prize.  I still want to see what type of numbers he puts up at his pro day but with he was dominant this season leading the nation with 15.5 sacks.  The Browns are making the switch to the 4-3 and adding an elite edge rusher like Bowers will help the transition.   

7. San Francisco 49ers – Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

The 49ers need help in the secondary and Nate Clements is getting old.  Prince did nothing to hurt himself at the NFL combine and has all the talent of a top 10 pick.  The 49ers need a quarterback but I don’t know if Harbaugh sees a guy he likes this early in the draft.  Blaine Gabbert’s pro-day could change my mind.

8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley DT (Auburn)

Fairley is another guy with top 10 talent who will upgrade the Titans defense immediately.   He was a force this season with a mean streak.  Next to Austin’s, Fairley’s 10-yard split of 1.76 seems slow.  It is still a good time (Ndamukong Suh ran 1.73).  He is the best player available and fills, maybe not the top need (QB), but a need nonetheless. 

9. Dallas Cowboys – Marvin Austin DT (North Carolina)

I would be tempted to take the top offensive tackle here, but Marvin Austin is a special talent that will help the Cowboys immensely in the front seven.  At 308 pounds, he ran the 10-yard in 1.63 seconds (which was the average for runningbacks last year at the combine).  He also finished second among defensive tackles with 38 reps on the bench.  He is versatile in a 3-4 and would improve the Cowboys defense overall. 

10. Washington Redskins – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)

No one would describe Jay Cutler as the most accurate quarterback, but he has a cannon arm and good athleticism.  I question Gabbert’s accuracy but Mike Shanahan didn’t’ have a problem with that in Cutler.  The Redskins need a QB for the future and Gabbert has decent value at #10. 

11. Houston Texans – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)

The Texans are switching to a 3-4 defense and will jump at the opportunity to add a Miller, who has the potential to grow into a Demarcus Ware-type threat of the edge.  Houston had the worst pass defense last season but they are young in the secondary and adding an elite pass-rusher will improve the pass defense just as much, if not more than adding a guy like Jimmy Smith.  Mario Williams, Brian Cushing, Demeco Ryans, Von Miller and Antonio Smith?  Sounds pretty good to me. 

12. Minnesota Vikings – Tyron Smith OT (USC)

Bryant McKinnie is regressing and would benefit from a move to the right side.  A big reason why Favre did not match his 2009 numbers last year was the lack of protection he received.  The Vikings have other needs at quarterback and in the secondary, but no prospect at either position group matches Smith’s value here.

13. Detroit Lions – Anthony Castonzo OT (Boston College)

Castonzo is used to playing the left side and showed great lateral movement at the combine.  If you recall I said last year that it was critical for the Lions to upgrade the offensive tackle position via free-agency or in the first 2 rounds of the draft.  They didn’t and although Ndamukong Suh and Jahvid Best look like good picks, Matthew Stafford has now suffered multiple injuries to his throwing arm and is likely one injury away from never being the same prospect again.  I’m tempted to go with Nate Solder, who has a higher ceiling than Castonzo, but I’ll take the safer pick out of necessity.

14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)

Jones lit up the combine and did so on a fractured foot.  He has the height and speed of a top 10 pick and is as physical a receiver I have seen in the last five years.  Despite his great combine, he didn’t jump Green because his route running and hands are not on the same level.  The Rams will waste no time making this pick and Sam Bradford gets his go-to receiver.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)

The teammates from the Crimson Tide go back-to-back and the Dolphins find a perfect replacement for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.  I also really considered quarterback (Locker/Mallet) here because I don’t think Henne is the answer, but ultimately getting the top RB in the class is better value for the Fins here.  

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)

The Jaguars secondary is in drastic need of an overhaul.  They don’t have a single playmaker in the group and that is a recipe for failure when you play Peyton Manning twice a year.  The Jags can’t pick another defensive lineman in the first round and I’m happy enough with David Garrard to wait on grabbing a quarterback till round 2.

17. New England Patriots – Ryan Kerrigan DE/OLB (Purdue)

The Patriots need to manufacture pressure on opposing quarterbacks and upgrading the DE and OLB positions is a must.  Kerrigan is a really impressive athlete (4.70 in the 40 at 6’4 and 270 pounds) who looked really smooth dropping into coverage during drills at the combine.  He is not only a need for the Patriots but is also the best player available.  

18. San Diego Chargers – Cameron Jordan DE (California)

Jordan is the prototypical end in the Chargers 3-4 scheme.  He is just as good against the run as he is against the pass and is athletic for a guy his size.  Just like the Kerrigan pick, he fills the top need and is the best player available.

19. New York Giants – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)

Unlike the Lions, the Giants can afford to gamble a bit on Solder.  He has a much higher ceiling than Castonzo and will join a veteran offensive line in New York.  Outside linebacker is still a position the Giants need to address but there is enough depth to grab a starter in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.  Solder is good value at #19.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aldon Smith DE (Missouri)

A raw athlete, Smith will be added to a defensive line that includes Gerald McCoy (3^rd overall in 2010) and Brian Price (35^th overall in 2010).  The Bucs have no pressing needs on the offensive side of the ball and Smith will improve the pass rush immensely.  The Bucs are a team on the rise and adding a guy who can get to the quarterback will make the back end of the defense better.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor NT (Baylor)

Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have grown into good NFL starters and all that’s missing is a space-eater at nosetackle.  The Chiefs could also use a receiver but with Green and Jones long gone, none make sense at #21.  The Chiefs made a quantum leap in terms of development last season and Taylor, while not a flashy pick, fills an important role.  

22. Indianapolis Colts – Mike Pouncey OG/C (Florida)

Carimi or Pouncey?  To me it’s Pouncey for a number of reasons.  Jeff Saturday is getting old and the Colts need upgrades at every position along the offensive line.  Pouncey can start at guard and take over for Saturday once he hangs them up.  I’d rather add a tackle here but Carimi is a better run blocker than a pass protector.  

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)

The Eagles could use an upgrade at the Right Tackle position and Carimi is perfect for that.  The Eagles are set at all the skill positions on offence and now that Vick has learned to hang in the pocket, it would prudent to give him as much time as possible.  

24. New Orleans Saints – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)

The Saints are another team with very few holes and should take the best player available.  To me that’s Ayers.  He didn’t test very well at the combine but is still a very good football player that plays faster than his 40 time would indicate.  I considered Corey Liuget but deemed Ayers the better prospect.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker QB (Washington)

And the home crowd goes wild!  Locker, the hometown hero, stays in Washington and can be the face of the franchise.  Clipboad Jesus did not impress me last year and thankfully only has a year left on the extension he signed.  Hasselbeck is a good guy for Locker to learn from and if he can fix his accuracy issues, Locker has all the intangibles to be successful at the NFL level.  

26. Baltimore Ravens – Ras-I Dowling CB (Virginia)

The Ravens need help in the secondary and, if not for injuries, Dowling is a top 15 talent.  He ran very well at the combine and in my opinion is the 4^th, if not 3^rd, best corner in the draft.  The Ravens could use a receiver to pair with Anquan Boldin but they can find a speed guy in the middle rounds.  Baltimore has been focusing too much on offence lately and need to start adding talent to a rapidly aging defense.  J.J Watt is the better prospect, but cornerback need wins out.  

27. Atlanta Falcons – Adrian Clayborn DE (Iowa)

The Falcons need to find someone to play on the other side of John Abraham.  Clayborn is a well-rounded prospect who is stout against the run and can get after the quarterback.  He projects as a solid starter, which is exactly what the Falcons need.  The play of Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson this year negates a need in the secondary.  

28. New England Patriots – J.J. Watt DE (Wisconsin)

Once again the Patriots luck out by having J.J. Watt slide to them here.  Watt, like Cameron Jordan, is a prototypical 5-tecnique end, which is precisely the position the Pats need to upgrade.  I thought about runningback (LeShoure/Rodgers) but with a number of them remaining, the Pats can grab one in the  2^nd round.  Adding Watt and Kerrigan could really improve this defense immediately. 

29. Chicago Bears – Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)

The Bears couldn’t protect Cutler well enough in the playoffs and need to have an influx of talent on the offensive line.  Mike Tice can teach Sherrod how to be an effective NFL lineman and aside from defensive tackle, Sherrod fills the biggest need.  This is a no brainer.

30. New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson DT/DE (Temple)

The Jets said goodbye to Shaun Ellis and should improve their end position.  New York has a finite amount of time to make a run as numerous contracts will be coming due in the near future.  Wilkerson is versatile and can step in and contribute right away (precisely what the Jets need).

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Brandon Harris CB (Miami)

The Steelers could not cover the Packers when they went to a spread formation in the Super Bowl and that is due in large part to their lack of corners.  Harris is undersized but is very fluid in coverage (Deion Sanders thought Harris ran the drills the best of anyone at the combine).  They could look to a guy like Rodney Hudson or Danny Watkins along the interior of the offensive line, but it’s a bit early for either of those players.

32. Green Bay Packers – Allen Bailey DE (Miami)

Bailey’s athleticism was on display at the combine and made me think he could even make the move to OLB in the 3-4 (similar to a LaMarr Woodely).  At 285 pounds, Bailey is also big enough to rotate in at the 5-technique on the defensive line.  He is exactly the type of luxury pick the Packers can afford and provides versatility.