Well Football fans we are only hours away from the draft and it is shaping up to be a very action packed evening. I would expect no less than five trades within the first round (probably closer to seven). With all the expected activity, most mock drafts will look silly but hey, here's my best effort assuming the teams hold their picks. I also added a 'should pick' comment to the top 10 to outline my personal opinion as to who they should select. Enjoy! Follow me on Twitter at JansenWS for instant analysis on every pick.
#1. St Louis Rams – Sam Bradford QB
The pick here has to be Bradford. I don’t blame the Rams for taking Chris Long or Jason Smith because both seemed to be quality picks but the reality is the Rams passed on Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. They can’t afford to not pick a quarterback here because who knows when they will be in position to select one again. I’ll go on record saying that I believe Jimmy Clausen will be a better NFL player than Bradford but the Rams seem to prefer Bradford and must pick a QB.
Should pick: Sam Bradford
#2. Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh DT
If the Lions don’t trade their second round pick for either Albert Haynesworth or Jared Gaither, then they should pick Okung and take the best defensive player available at #34. I believe the Lions will lean towards Gaither/Suh over Haynesworth/Okung because of the financial cost of acquiring Haynesworth. The bottom line is the Lions MUST deal the #34 pick if they want to be taken seriously as a franchise. (See Lions Must Pounce at Rare Opportunity).
Should Pick: Ndamukong Suh (But MUST trade 2nd rounder for Jared Gaither. If not, Detroit deserves to continue losing)
#3. Tampa Bay Bucaneers – Gerald McCoy DT
With Suh off the board, the decision is made for the Bucs as they acquire this disruptive force who, for all intents and purposes looks like Warren Sapp 2.0.
Should Pick: Geraldy McCoy
#4. Washington Redskins – Russell Okung OT
The trade for Donovan McNabb filled the void at Quarterback and shifts the entire focus to replacing Chris Samuels at LT. This is the only pick the Redskins have in the top 100 which means they can’t afford to miss here. Some analysts believe Trent Williams is a better fit in Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme but Okung was a four year starter at tackle and was the consensus #1 tackle prospect going into the 2009 NCAA season. He maintained this grade and will do a great job protecting McNabb’s blindside.
Should Pick: Russell Okung
#5. Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga OT
Selecting a tackle here will have a trickledown effect that will result in a much improved offensive line. I believe the pick will be Bulaga given the history between Kirk Ferentz, Iowa’s Head Coach, and Scott Pioli. For those of you who don’t know, they worked on the Browns staff together where Ferentz was an offensive line coach. If Ferentz believes in Bulaga, I suspect Pioli will as well. Bulaga is a polished technician who can be inserted into the left tackle position from day one. This will allow current LT Branden Albert to move back to his natural guard position.
Don’t rule out Eric Berry as the Chiefs are also in need of a safety. However, we saw last year that Pioli prefers positional value over the best player available strategy when he picked Jackson over Curry. Upgrading the line is essential if the Chiefs want to know exactly what they have in Matt Cassel.
Should pick: Eric Berry
#6. Seattle Seahawks – Trent Williams OT
Seattle has a lot of needs, the most pressing being OT. Trent Williams’ stock has been rising since the combine and his athleticism and upside is intriguing. He is a perfect replacement for the aging Walter Jones.
Should Pick: Trent Williams
#7. Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry S
The Browns need to add more playmakers on both sides of the ball, period. Eric Berry fits the bill and is considered one of the top prospects in this class. The fact that he is a safety might keep him out of the top five but I’d be shocked if he slips past Cleveland here. Berry will immediately upgrade the secondary, an area of weakness, and give the defence a young leader.
Should Pick: Jimmy Clausen
#8. Oakland Raiders – Jason Pierre-Paul DE/OLB
Ok I caved. I really thought the Raiders would treat this draft with a little more caution that in the past but considering how blindly confident Al Davis seems to be in his ‘workout warrior’ strategy, I can only assume he will take an athlete here. Pierre-Paul is a better pick than Bruce Campbell as he has a higher grade and is widely considered one of the top three DE/OLB’s in the draft. If he can play to his potential he will be a nice addition to the Raiders front seven. NOTE: Don’t be surprised if this pick is traded for Ben Roethlisberger within the next 24 hours.
Should Pick: Anthony Davis
#9. Buffalo Bills – Anthony Davis OT
I think this is a reach for Anthony Davis but last season the Bills chose not to ‘reach’ for Michael Oher and look how that turned out. In no way am I comparing Davis to Oher but this is a situation where need has to outweigh best player available. Gailey has recently made some comments regarding the need to upgrade the offensive line and his commitment to running the ball. Taking the fourth tackle on the board at #9 overall is a tough pill to swallow but I think it’s the pick. With the way the AFC East is shaping up, I would be shocked if the Bills won a divisional game this year and I suspect they can address their quarterback next year with a top 3 pick.
Should Pick: Dez Bryant
#10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Earl Thomas S
Having been a Jags fan since 1997, I have watched the ups and downs of this franchise very closely. The biggest reason this team could not build on its success from a few years ago is their inability to hit on picks in the first round (See Leftwich, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Derrick Harvey, Marcedes Lewis).
Rashean Mathis’s play has declined in the last two seasons and when you’re looking to unseat the Colts, you better be able to rush the passer and cover receivers. I had Joe Haden here in my previous mock but I think Earl Thomas gets the slight edge here because he seems to be the safer pick while also providing the upgrade to the secondary that Haden would. Had Thomas decided to return for his senior season, Mack Brown was planning on moving him to corner, a testament to his athleticism and cover skills.
Should Pick: Earl Thomas
#11. Denver Broncos – Dez Bryant WR
A Josh McDaniels pass happy offense does not look very threatening with Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as the starting receivers. Dez Bryant is a top ten talent and adding him would allow Royal to play the slot, where he is more effective.
The Broncos do have needs on defence, primarily at NT, ILB and S, but with two second round picks they will have enough ammunition to move up and take a Terrence Cody, or one of the solid backers pegged in the second round such as Sean Lee or Brandon Spikes.
#12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams NT
At age 35, Jason Ferguson’s play has already started to taper off. A good nose tackle is vital to the success of any 3-4 defence and Bill Parcells knows this. Upgrading the OLB position is important but I think they can address this need in the second or third round.
#13. San Francisco 49ers – Joe Haden CB
Joe Haden is the top corner in the draft and a great value pick here for the 49ers. His stock fell after running slow at the combine (back problems) but alleviated concerns at his pro day when he clocked in the 4.4 range. Getting the best corner in the draft at #13 is a steal and fills a pressing need for San Fran.
#14. Seattle Seahawks – CJ Spiller RB
By satisfying the need at LT with the #6 overall pick, the Seahawks turn their attention to playmakers. Julius Jones is at best an NFL backup and Justin Forsett has explosive ability but is more of a change of pace back. Spiller is a top ten talent who will immediately bolster the Seahawks offense both running the ball and in the passing game. Combining him with Forsett gives the Seahawks a dangerous tandem in the backfield.
#15. New York Giants – Rolando McClain LB
I’ve had a change of heart with this pick and believe the Giants will take McClain over Derrick Morgan. He is the top inside linebacker in the draft and sets a physical tone, something Tom Coughlin will like. Questions about his speed make him a better fit for a 3-4 defence but he is great value at #15 and his smarts will make-up for his lack of elite speed.
#16. Tennessee Titans – Derrick Morgan DE
If either Pierre-Paul or Morgan are on the board when the Titans pick, they will be sprinting to hand in their draft card. Morgan is a great against the run and can rush the passer. He projects as a solid NFL starter. The Titans may elect to take the risk on Pierre-Paul. He has a rare blend of size and speed and there is no limit to his upside.
#17. San Francisco 49ers – Jimmy Clausen QB
I’m having a hard time placing Clausen and if he gets past the 49ers here, the next logical team that could pick him is the Vikings at #30. I would bet that Clausen is picked as a result of a trade up, but since we are going with the pick order, Clausen goes here. Upgrading the offensive line is also a need but taking the hometown kid is a great long term move for the franchise.
#18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Iupati OT
If Iupati and Kyle Wilson are on the board at this point, it could be a coin toss for the Steelers. Wilson fills the biggest need on the team while Iupati would help satisfy Art Rooney Jr.’s desire to return to the old smash mouth Steeler way. Back to the basics for the steelers.
#19. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Graham DE/OLB
The Falcons need to get to Drew Brees if they want to contend for the division title. Graham is a solid player who works hard, can rush the passer and is stout against the run.
#20. Houston Texans – Kyle Wilson CB
Unfortunately for Texans fans this pick is not an upgrade but rather a necessary replacement for Dunta Robinson. Kyle Wilson has great cover skills and didn’t get as much national attention playing for Boise State. When you play in the Colts division you better be able to cover.
#21. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermaine Gresham TE
I think Gresham was a better prospect last year than Brandon Pettigrew and he went 21st overall last year. If the Bengals are serious about winning a championship they need to give Carson Palmer the tools to succeed. He is a top quarterback in the NFL and has rebounded nicely from his serious knee injury. The NFL is a passing league and adding Gresham will give Palmer the best supporting cast since he had TJ and Chad. There has been talk of Taylor Mays going here because he fits nicely into Mike Zimmer’s scheme, but it’s time the Bengals spent a first round pick on helping Palmer.
#22. New England Patriots – Sergio Kindle DE/OLB
Here is where the Patriots long term strategy is going to pay off. They have three picks in the second round which gives them a lot of assets that they can use to move around in the draft. Kindle will provide Belichick’s defence with some much needed pass rush ability. I still think the Patriots are closely targeting Jared Odrick.
#23. Green Bay Packers – Maurkice Pouncey C/G
Charles Brown is a bit of a stretch here and does not fit Ted Thompson’s best player available strategy. Upgrading the offensive line is a must and adding the versatile Pouncey accomplishes that goal and satisfies the BPA strategy. Kindle or Graham are also options if they are on the board.
#24. Philadelphia Eagles – Kareem Jackson CB
Kareem Jackson has been rising as we get closer to the draft and the Eagles do have a need in the secondary. I would be very surprised if the Eagles don’t trade out of this spot given the amount of picks they have and the rumours that they want to move up and take a safety.
#25. Baltimore Ravens – Jared Odrick DT/DE
The Ravens look to add depth along the defensive front and Odrick has been rising on draft boards lately. He fits well in the 5-techniqe spot and improves the Ravens front seven immediately. I will add that I think it will be beneficial for the Ravens to take a top notch inside linebacker in either this draft or 2011. Letting a guy like Brandon Spikes learn from Ray Lewis for a few years is a great long term plan.
#26. Arizona Cardinals – Sean Weatherspoon LB
Losing Karlos Dansby to the Dolphins leaves a big gap in the Cardinals defence. Signing Joey Porter will provide them with solid production on the outside for at least two seasons, but they still need help on the interior. In my opinion Weatherspoon is a steal here and his versatility will be beneficial in Billy Davis’s scheme, especially when they play their ‘amoeba’ defence.
#27. Dallas Cowboys – Demaryius Thomas WR
The Cowboys rush to the podium to make this selection as they acquire the perfect vertical threat to pair with Miles Austin. I’m not sure Thomas will be much more than a guy who can stretch the field as I’m not convinced his route running/run after the catch skills are up to par. If Ray Sherman, the Cowboys wide receiver coach, can harness Thomas’s raw talent, the sky is the limit. People seem to think OT is the need after the Cowboys released Flozell Adams but I expect him to sign back with the Cowboys after the draft.
#28. San Diego Chargers – Terrence Cody NT
Terrence Cody has a unique skill set that 3-4 teams value. His weight at the Senior Bowl was a little concerning but since then he has dropped weight and seems to be taking his conditioning seriously. He is the ultimate space eater and San Diego needs to replace the void they created when they released Jamaal Williams. Ryan Matthews will get strong consideration here but the Chargers can find a quality back in the second round.
#29. New York Jets – Everson Griffen DE
The Jets have been the clear winners of this offseason so far. Adding Tomlinson, Holmes and Cromartie addressed a number of team needs. Upgrading the front seven and adding a replacement for Alan Faneca seem to be the two biggest needs at this point. Rex Ryan picks an athletic freak in Griffen giving him one more toy to use in his pressure based defensive scheme.
#30. Minnesota Vikings – Taylor Mays S
Even with all the questions regarding his cover skills, I think the Vikings are thrilled he is still on the board at this point. Mays has a freakish blend of size and speed and if things don’t work out for him at Safety, I still see him contributing potentially at linebacker the way Thomas Davis made the switch for the Panthers. The Vikings will also look at Patrick Robinson here and if they feel he is the better player to upgrade their secondary, he will be the pick. Jahvid Best has some value here after the Vikings lost out on the Tomlinson sweepstakes.
#31. Indianapolis Colts – Brian Price DT
The Colts need help on the offensive line but Peyton Manning is so good at sensing pressure that he rarely gets sacked anyways. The Colts offensive style allows for smaller offensive linemen to excel and therefore they can target someone in the 2nd round that may not fit other teams style. Brian Price occupies space, will immediately improve the run defence which will result in more passing downs allowing Freeney and Mathis to wreak havoc.
#32. New Orleans Saints – Carlos Dunlap DE
Like the Colts, the Saints could trade down from this position. If they hold onto the pick, I think they go with Dunlap. He is very athletic and New Orleans can afford to take a risk on a player here.
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