Saturday, October 16, 2010

WEEK 6 Pick'em

Chargers @ Rams (+9)
Despite Phil Rivers putting up MVP numbers, the Chargers have dug themselves into a hole because of poor special teams play.  The Rams don't have a real return threat and Sam Bradford just lost his favourite target for the year.  Even on the road, the Chargers need to put the Rams away, convincingly.

Spread: Chargers (-9)
Straight Up: Chargers

Chiefs @ Texans (-4.5)
I doubted the Chiefs 3-0 start, but the way they played the Colts proved to me that they are for real.  The 'Patriots of the West' were able to hold Peyton Manning in check so there is no reason to believe they can't do the same to Matt Schaub.  The Texans have been wildly inconsistent and even though their at home, I'll go with the team that's been playing solid football all year.

Spread: Chiefs (+4.5)
Straight Up: Chiefs

Ravens @ Patriots (-2.5)
The much anticipated rematch from last year's playoff battle is one of the better games on the slate this weekend.  The Ravens looked a lot better last week and I know everyone is freaking about the loss of Randy Moss.  Part of me wants to pick the Ravens, but I have one rule I live by: Never bet against Bill Belichick coming off a bye week.

Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
Straight Up: Patriots

Saints @ Buccaneers (+4.5)
It's no surprise that the Saints aren't playing like they did last year.  Super Bowl teams rarely are the same for a number of reasons (shortened offseason due to media/public relations commitments) and teams have had a whole year to analyze what made their offence tick last year.  The Bucs are coming off a bye and upset the Bengals 2 weeks ago.

Spread: Buccaneers (+4.5)
Straight Up: Saints

Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5)
The Falcons have been the best and most consistent team in the NFC.  The Eagles have looked good as well, but they let a bad Niners offence back into the game last Sunday night.  The Falcons are good everywhere, including special teams.

Spread: Falcons (+2.5)
Straight Up: Falcons

Lions @ Giants (-10)
The Lions proved that they are no longer in the basement of the NFL by crushing the St. Louis Rams.  They have been in every game this season against the NFL elite and I have no reason to believe this game will be any different against another team who is inconsistent on offence.

Spread: Lions (+10)
Straight Up: Lions

Seahawks @ Bears (-6.5)
Somehow the Bears won last week even though their starting quarterback was picked off 4 times and threw for less than 50 yards.  The Bears have been very solid on defence and Jay Cutler is back this week.  Seattle plays a lot better at home than they do on the road.

Spread: Bears (-6.5)
Straight Up: Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-14)
Big Ben returns this week and the Steelers offence should put up 21+ on the Browns.  The best defence in football going up against a rookie quarterback with no offensive weapons outside of Peyton Hillis is a recipe for a shutout.

Spread: Steelers (-14)
Straight Up: Steelers

Dolphins @ Packers (-3)
It sounds like Aaron Rodgers will be good to go for this one, but the Pack will be without Jermichael Finley for the season.  The Packers still have enough talent to beat the Dolphins at Lambeau.

Spread: Packers (-3)
Straight Up: Packers

Jets @ Broncos (+3.5)
The Jets haven't looked great against the pass this season and Kyle Orton is playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL right now.  The Jets will run the ball and try and control the clock but Orton will find open receivers and keep this one close.

Spread: Broncos (+3.5)
Straight Up: Jets

Raiders @ Niners (-7)
Vegas is still giving the Niners a ton of credit.  At 0-5, it's ridiculous that this line is at -7.  The Raiders have played hard-nosed competitive football and the Niners have shown me nothing to warrant picking them yet.

Spread: Raiders (+7)
Straight Up: Raiders

Cowboys @ Vikings (-1.5)
How things have changed since August.  One of these teams will be all but finished come Sunday night. There is no chance that Favre misses a game due to tendonitis, but Brad Childress would be wise to give AP 30 touches.  If it was in Dallas, I'd be picking Dallas....

Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
Straight Up: Vikings

Colts @ Redskins (+3)
Peyton Manning in primetime?

Spread: Colts (-3)
Straight Up: Colts

Titans @ Jaguars (+3)
The Titans are simply a much more talented/deep football team than the Jags.  Look for Kenny Britt and Vince Young to have big games.

Spread: Titans (-3)
Straight Up: Titans

Season Straight Up: 42-33
Season vs Spread:  31-40-4

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