The Conference Championship Breakdown

Green Bay @ Chicago

When Green Bay has the ball

Aaron Rodgers has played exceptional these last few weeks.  He had one of the best playoff performances in NFL history last week in Atlanta.  For them to beat an Atlanta team that had an extra week of rest and loses at home once in a blue moon was impressive.  To blow them out was even more impressive.  The Packers have the best receiving corps in the world and Rodgers knows how to take full advantage of his arsenal.  The Green Bay offence has looked unstoppable the last few weeks, but that will change in Chicago.  The loose turf at Soldier field will make it difficult for receivers to be smooth in and out of cuts.  Don’t be surprised to see a few guys slip, which could result in an interception.  The Bears play fundamental defense and their corners know how to play physical and disrupt timing routes.  I don’t expect the Packers will have any success in the run game and will be forced to air it out.  Julius Peppers will need to have a big day.  I can see Rodgers going 23/41 for 240 yards with 2TD’s and 1 Int.

When Chicago has the ball

It will be interesting to see how quickly Mike Martz puts the game in Jay Cutler’s hands.  I would expect the Bears to start the game by running the ball and calling high percentage passing plays such as screens and various short combinations.  Jay Cutler is the type of QB that will force throws and take chances.  Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson seem to like playing against that type of passer.  I truly believe that Cutler’s play will dictate who wins this football game.  If Cutler has less than 25 attempts and doesn’t turn the ball over all game, the Bears win.  

Special Teams

I expect this game to come down to a late field goal and it will be interesting to see which of these two big legged guys can come through in the clutch.  The field conditions will make it even more difficult, but Robbie Gould or Mason Crosby will get the opportunity to have a Vinatieri moment.  Oh, and if the Packers kick to Devin Hester they would have been better off staying in Wisconsin.

Prediction

Packers 20 Bears 17

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

When New York has the ball

The Jets will try and establish some sort of running game early, but that is easier said than done against the #1 ranked run defence.  Regardless of how effective or ineffective their run game is, the Jets will stay with it all game because they have to in order to set-up single coverage for Mark Sanchez.  The Steelers will get pressure on Sanchez and I expect him to struggle.  Remember he didn’t throw a touchdown last time they played in Pittsburgh.  LT and Greene should combine for around 100 yards on the ground but I think Sanchez will struggle and turn the ball over more than once.

When Pittsburgh has the ball

The Steelers will try and establish the run in this game as well.  Rashard Mendenhall will shoulder the load early on and then I expect Big Ben to use play action to get the ball down field.  I imagine Revis will be put on Hines Ward and Cromartie on Mike Wallace, but either way Roethlisberger will need to make use of his backs and Heath Miller in the passing game.  His ability to pump fake effectively and buy time could allow his receivers to break free.  Mendenhall rushes for 90 yards, and Roethlisberger throws or runs in the game winning touchdown.

Special Teams

The punters will take centre stage in this one as field position will be a major key to the game.  It is next to impossible to make kicks over 40 yards at Heinz Field so don't expect much from the kicking game.

Steelers 22 Jets 17