Super Bowl XLV

The Arms (Advantage: Even)

Super Bowl XVL should be a memorable one considering both signal-callers are playing at the top of their game.  Aaron Rodgers has been on fire this postseason and is starting to write his own chapter of history in Green Bay.  He has thrived when the Packers spread the field with his quick release and exceptional accuracy.  He has also been dangerous with his feet, converting on key third downs.  For as crisp as he was in the first 10 quarters of the playoffs, he really struggled during the last two in Chicago.  He finished that game with a quarterback rating of 55.4.  It’s most likely just a rough patch, but if it’s Rodgers’ arm cooling off, the Packers could be in trouble.

Rodgers’ counterpart has had a less spectacular but oddly similar postseason.  Roethlisberger opened the 2011 playoffs with a 2 touchdown performance against the Ravens.  However, he finished with a QB rating of 35.5 in the AFC Championship.  That being said he also made a number of plays with his feet and had a good enough first half to put away the Jets.  He comes into this game with two Super Bowl rings and the experience of having done this all before.  

Expect both of these superstars to play it likely will come down to who has the ball last.  

The Hands (Advantage: Packers)

Green Bay has the advantage in the air with a star-studded cast of receivers.  It’s extremely impressive considering that arguably the second most dangerous weapon on offence has been hurt all year (Jermichael Finley).  The reason the Packers thrive in four wide receiver sets is because of their depth.  James Jones and Jordy Nelson matching up against a team’s nickel and dime corners is a mismatch that the Packers like to exploit.  It will be interesting to see how active Troy Polamalu can be when the Packers spread the field. 

The Steelers have some weapons of their own in Mike Wallace and Heath Miller.  Wallace uses his elite speed to stretch the field which creates room underneath for Miller and veteran Hines Ward.  The emergence of Emmanuel Sanders could not have come at a better time for Pittsburgh fans.  The key matchup to me will be how the Packers defend Miller and Ward.  I imagine Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson will matchup on Wallace and Sanders.  If the Packers choose to cover Miller with a linebacker, he could have a big day.  

The Legs (Advantage: Steelers)

Rashard Mendenhall has emerged this season as one of the few feature backs in the NFL.  He is the prototypical Steelers back: can run around you, but would rather run through you.  He has deceptive agility and good enough hands to remain in the game on third down.  

It is impossible to downplay the importance of James Starks to the Green Bay offence.  Without him, they would not have gotten to Dallas.  He is a physical back with breakaway speed but I think his inexperience will result in at least one turnover.

The Hogs (Advantage: Packers)

For as bad as the Packers offensive line was last year, they have don’t a complete 180 this season.  Chad Clifton is playing like he’s 25 again and the Bryan Bulaga has been steady, if nothing else, on the right side.  The Steelers struck gold when they picked Maurkice Pouncey in the first round of the 2010 draft.  Even if he plays, he will be limited by his injured ankle.  Doug Legurksy may need to step up and have the game of his life. 

The Penetrators (Advantage: Packers)

Another question mark is the health of Aaron Smith.  He has been out for the majority of the season but could return tomorrow.  If he does, it will be a big boost to the Steelers front 7 as he is one of the better 5-tech ends in the league. Casey Hampton has done his job all year by clogging the interior.  The Packers d-line is ‘beefy’ to put it lightly.  Cullen Jenkins has been great this postseason but ‘the freezer’ BJ Raji is the real story here.  A high pick in 2009, Raji is starting to live up to his vast potential.

The Backers (Advantage: Steelers)

One of the keys to the game will be how much pressure the defenses can apply on Rodgers and Big Ben.  With three of the best edge rushers in the game, that shouldn’t be too difficult.  James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are explosive off the edge and while Clifton matches up well against Harrison, Woodley gets to go up against rookie Bryan Bulaga.  The Packers counter with Clay Matthews who has been the best front seven defender in the league this year.  He will need to get to Big Ben early and often.  Lawrence Timmons doesn’t get a lot of press but he is integral to the Steelers run defense.  

The Secondary (Advantage: Packers)

Troy Polamalu was the defensive MVP this season.  While he had a solid season (7 interceptions) I think he won based on his career resume and not necessarily his play this year.  He will need to be extremely active in the secondary, especially when the Packers spread the field.  The other three Steelers in coverage are solid but do not compare to Woodson, Williams and Collins.  They have played great, especially in the post-season.  The Packers secondary should cause at least two turnovers tonight.

Prediction

Based on how these teams have played lately, this should be an outstanding game.  I think Rodgers will struggle at first and the Steelers will capitalize on their experience early.  The Steelers will try and run the ball and how successful they are in that facet could determine the outcome.  This game could go into overtime but I think Rodgers will make a career defining play late in the game, just like Big Ben did two years ago.

Enjoy the Chili!

Packers 30 Steelers 27