When analyzing the quarterback class of 2011 two things stand out. The athleticism and depth of this group is outstanding. There are six quarterbacks that are 1st or 2nd round prospects. Four of them ran between 4.6 and 4.65 in the 40 yard dash and average 6’3 230 pounds. The trick is none of them are sure fire picks to succeed at the next level. The second tier quarterbacks such as Mallett (character), Locker (Accuracy) and Ponder (Injury) all have individual issues but still have the talent to be first round picks. The reason they are not slated to go in the top 20 is because the two guys ahead of them are the most physically gifted quarterbacks to come out of college in years. Newton and Gabbert are raw but if they get with a coach who can develop them there is no ceiling to their ability. Despite the tremendous athleticism, I don’t see the overall importance. Of the top quarterbacks in the league (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger and Vick) only Vick and Rodgers run faster than a 4.9 and Brady and Manning are probably the least athletic quarterbacks in the league. The big key is that defensive players are way more athletic in the NFL and, unless you are Mike Vick, your threat in the run game is mitigated to a great extent. Below is a ranking of the top quarterbacks based on their value relative to where they will go in the draft.
1. Ryan Mallett
Ryan Mallet has easily the best arm in the draft. He has better accuracy and arm strength than both Newton and Gabbert. As a bonus, Mallett doesn’t have their footwork issues and is a classic dropback passer. The questions with Mallett are issues about his character. I think Mallett is driven enough to succeed and I am buying-in. Whatever team decides to grab him late in the first round will be glad they did too.
2. Christian Ponder
Ponder is another guy who’s stock has been rising lately and with good reason. He could slide to the middle of the 2nd round despite having the ability of a late first round pick. Ponder has a good arm and won the 2010 James Tatum Award that goes to the nation’s top scholar-athlete. His intelligence shows on the field with his ability to read defenses. Look for teams like the Titans, Dolphins or Jaguars to grab him with their 2nd round pick at great value.
3. Andy Dalton
Dalton has an underrated arm and won TCU their first ever Rose Bowl this season. There will likely be 5 quarterbacks that go ahead of Dalton which will drop him to the 3rd maybe even the 4th round. I think Dalton has a realistic chance to be a Kevin Kolb type quarterback, and if not, there is still value in having a talent like him as a backup in the middle of the draft.
4. Jake Locker
Locker is a tricky prospect to evaluate. He is a tremendous athlete, a natural leader and has a strong arm. Sounds great until you realize that he never completed more than 60% of his passes in college. Last season he would’ve been a top 10 pick and there was a trend that his accuracy was improving, however this season he regressed in that department (58.4% to 55% completion percentage) and that has teams worried. It could be a mechanics issue but, if nothing else, accuracy wins at the next level. I probably like Locker the most of all the QB’s in this draft, but I’m not sure accuracy can be taught.
5. Cam Newton
Newton has the most upside of any passer in this draft. He played one year of division 1 football and won the Heisman trophy and a national championship. He has a chance to be a superstar in the NFL if he gets paired with the right coaching staff who takes the time to develop his natural ability. On draft day, Newton will likely go in the top 5. QBs that went in the top five in the last five drafts are: Sam Bradford (#1), Matt Stafford (#1), Mark Sanchez (#5), Matt Ryan (#3), Jamarcus Russell (#1) and Vince Young (#3). Aside from Russell, all the other players have had success in the league; however I think if you asked Tennessee now, they would say VY wasn’t worth the 3rd overall pick. The questions surrounding Newton are numerous and therefore I think where he goes in the draft will be too high risk to warrant good value. If he slides out of the top 10 (unlikely) the pick makes more sense.
6. Blaine Gabbert
Reference the list above of quarterbacks who went in the top five and ask yourself if Gabbert grades out as highly as those guys. The answer is no. Like Newton he is also a tremendous athlete whose game needs refining to succeed at the NFL level. Gabbert will go in the top 5 and again I worry that the value isn’t there to take him so high. Gabbert is a hard worker but top 5 is too high for him, especially considering the depth of the 2011 QB class.
If you follow the NFL you have no doubt heard the statement that you need a franchise quarterback to win a Super Bowl and analysts use that logic to explain why guys like Newton and Gabbert could/should be taken in the top five. Only half of that argument is correct. Yes, you do need a franchise quarterback to threaten for a world championship, but you don’t need to get that guy in the top 5 all the time. The following quarterbacks are solidified as quality starters going into the 2011 season and roughly half of them were drafted outside of the top 15.
| Peyton Manning | (1) | Josh Freeman | (17) |
| Sam Bradford | (1) | Joe Flacco | (18) |
| Matt Stafford | (1) | Aaron Rodgers | (24) |
| Eli Manning | (1) | Drew Brees | (32) |
| Mike Vick | (1) | Matt Schaub | (90) |
| Matt Ryan | (3) | Tom Brady | (199) |
| Phil Rivers | (4) | Matt Cassel | (230) |
| Mark Sanchez | (5) | Tony Romo | (N/A) |
| Jay Cutler | (11) | | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | (11) | | |
Considering the questions with Newton and Gabbert, as well as the depth of this class, teams in the top 10 would be wise to pick one of the many talented positional players and then target a franchise quarterback by trading up into the late 1st or early 2nd round. That’s where the value is.
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