It's my favourite day of the NFL calendar - Draft day. I get tired of reading Mock Drafts that are simply predictions of what teams WILL do. Not only is it impossible to know what every GM is thinking, but who cares if you got it right? The real way to mock is to play GM for each of the 32 teams. Once you make a pick, transition to the next team and analyze who is on the board. Here is my 2nd annual GM MOCK DRAFT illustrating what I would do as the GM for each pick in the 1st round.
#1 Indianapolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)
The worst kept secret in history will officially be made public on Thursday night. The Colts did not get rid of Peyton Manning to draft anyone else. You’ve heard it a million times – Luck is the best QB prospect to come along in decades. Barring some outlier event, he will give Indianapolis fans the best 20 years of quarterback play in the history of the NFL. A first overall pick with the last name Luck playing with a horseshoe on his helmet – how does the NFL come up with this stuff?
#2 Washington Redskins – QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
Bottom line: no one was going to unseat Luck as the #1 pick in the draft. That being said, RGIII gave a valiant effort. Through five games last season Griffin had more Touchdowns than incompletions. Unlike Luck whose passing overshadows his athleticism, it’s Griffin’s athleticism that overshadows his abilities in the pocket. RGIII ran a sub 4.4 forty and is taller than many expected (6’2). He is accurate and poised in the pocket which makes him a dual-threat QB that is likely to have success. The Redskins mortgaged their future to move up from #6 to #2 to grab Griffin, he will be the pick.
#3 Minnesota Vikings – OT Matt Kalil (USC)
The consensus choice seems to be Kalil and for good reason. He is the premier LT in the 2012 draft class and could wind up as a perennial Pro Bowler. Something that factors into the decision is his NFL bloodlines (older brother Ryan plays for Carolina and has been to the Pro Bowl the last 3 years). Protecting Christian Ponder is important, but helping AP out is of equal importance.
#4 Cleveland Browns – RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)
This pick fits very well. The Browns have a solid offensive line (albeit a few holes), but absolutely zero playmakers. Last year’s second round pick WR Greg Little is a good player and will be a nice #2 receiver in due time. The Browns lost Peyton Hillis to Kansas City in free agency and they do not have anyone on their current roster that deserves more than 5 carries a game. Adding Richardson would take an enormous amount of pressure off Colt McCoy and would allow the Browns to play a more ball control style offense – something that would benefit their defense which is emerging as a very good unit. Richardson can do it all, and his receiving skills are perfect for the West Coast offense.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)
Tampa Bay has done a fantastic job retooling their team via the draft and free agency. The receiver position is set with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. They improved their offensive line tremendously by adding All World guard Carl Nicks in free agency. The biggest area of need is the secondary and it just so happens that the best player available is the top corner in the draft. Ronde Barber might not last the season and Aqib Talib’s legal issues cloud his situation. Considering how much the Bucs improved, they should expect to be playing with a lead more this year. That means they better be able to cover.
#6 St. Louis Rams – WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)
The Rams have set themselves up for success by trading down and adding a king’s ransom of draft picks from the Redskins. It’s time to give Sam Bradford some weapons and Blackmon is just that. Blackmon doesn’t have the ceiling of a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green, but he has the work ethic and talent to be a legitimate #1 receiver in the NFL. The Rams have a number of guys who can be effective in the slot and TE positions, and adding Blackmon should generate more favourable matchups for guys like Danny Amendola and Lance Kendricks.
#7 Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)
The Jags should trade down here as there is no value for them. Their pick should be coveted by someone looking to move ahead of Miami at #8 to draft QB Ryan Tannehill. The Jags have traditionally focused on linemen in the first round. How’s that worked out for them so far? The Jags offense has one skill player in RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Blaine Gabbert struggled as a rookie, but the front office gave him a ringing endorsement by not trading for Tim Tebow. The only way he is going to succeed is if he gets an influx of talent. Floyd is a big play receiver who can stretch the field (similar to Vincent Jackson). I understand the importance of linemen in the NFL, but the Jags need to start drafting some skilled guys – they have neglected that area for far too long.
#8 Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)
Is Tannehill a franchise QB? If he is, he will require a full year to develop. If it was any other team, I wouldn’t pick Tannehill, but the Dolphins are in a unique position as they just signed Mike Sherman to be their offensive coordinator. Sherman was Tannehill’s head coach at Texas A&M. If Tannehill is going to have success, it will be in Miami as he will be with a coach that he is familiar with and who has gotten top level production from him in college. If I’m the GM in Miami, I ask Sherman if we should take him. It’s that easy.
#9 Carolina Panthers - DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State)
The Panthers need to improve their defensive line and Cox is the guy to do it. He is a hulking presence on the interior and has played against solid competition in the SEC. His stock has risen lately because scouts are beginning to realize that the reason he didn’t stand out as much on film is because he was constantly double-teamed by opposing offensive linemen.
#10 Buffalo Bills – SS Mark Barron (Alabama)
The signing of Mario Williams changed the outlook for the Buffalo Bills. They now possess one of, if not the most dominant defensive line in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks will be under pressure and the best way to compliment a ferocious pass rush is with a secondary that can cover. Adding the top safety in the draft might be a bit high at #10, but the fit is too perfect. The bills face Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez twice a year. Barron would help limit their production. Offensive line is a need but I believe they can grab a guy like Cordy Glenn or Mike Adams in the 2ndround.
#11 Kansas City Chiefs – LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)
Kuechly is a higher rated prospect than a number of guys that have gone before him. He plays a position that doesn’t carry a lot of value, but he shouldn’t make it out of the top 15. Inside linebacker is a need along with NT and CB. Kuechly is the best player available and also fills a need. Coach Romeo Crennel will get the most out of Kuechly.
#12 Seattle Seahawks – DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)
The Seahawks need a pass rusher and Ingram can be that 4-3 end. Quinton Coples is physically better, but Ingram works harder and has more consistent film. Both of these guys would solve the issue on Seattle’s defensive line, but Ingram seems like the safer pick and they have similar talent.
#13 Arizona Cardinals – OG David DeCastro (Stanford)
Bottom line, the Cardinals are going to get a good value player at #13. The Cardinals have to upgrade their offensive line and if they take Riley Reiff here to fill the bigger need at tackle they aren’t wrong. DeCastro is one of the better guard prospects to enter the draft in quite some time. I prefer the game changing DeCastro over the steady Reiff. Offensive line coach and Hall of Famer guard Russ Grimm will get the maximum production out of DeCastro.
#14 Dallas Cowboys – CB Stephon Gilmore (Alabama)
If the Cardinals draft DeCastro, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Jerry Jones offers this pick and an additional mid-round pick for DeCastro. The Cardinals could then use this selection on Reiff. The Cowboys focused on retooling their secondary by adding Brandon Carr in free agency. Although safety is more of a need than corner, Gilmore could compete with Mike Jenkins for the starting spot opposite Brandon Carr. In today’s NFL, there is no such thing as having too many good corners.
#15 Philadelphia Eagles – DT Dontari Poe (Memphis)
The Eagles don’t really have a ton of needs to fill, which really highlights how much they underachieved last season. Areas they would look to improve are safety and linebacker, but the guys left on the board don’t fit from a value/scheme standpoint. The Eagles are positioned perfectly to take a chance on a high risk/reward prospect like Poe. At 6’4 348 pounds, Poe ran the 40 in 4.98 and benched 225lbs 44 times. His physical tools are Pro Bowl caliber, but his production at Memphis did not match his talent. Poe will be surrounded by high motor guys in Philadelphia and the payoff from a risk standpoint is solid at #15.
#16 New York Jets – DE/OLB Chandler Jones (Syracuse)
While he might not be a household name playing at Syracuse, his brother certainly is. Chandler is the younger brother of Jon “Bones” Jones, the UFC Heavyweight Champion. If you are familiar with his body of work, you shouldn’t have any questions about Chandler’s athleticism. Jones won’t be a guy that makes an immediate impact, but he could develop into a very special pass rusher if coached well.
#17 Cincinnati Bengals – CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)
The Bengals are a team on the rise. With the first of their two picks in the 1st round, they fill the void that was created when Jonathan Joseph left last summer. Leon Hall is coming off injury and even if he returns to form, they need a guy across from him that isn’t Pacman Jones. Kirkpatrick is a tall, well-built corner who can tackle well in run support.
#18 San Diego Chargers – DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)
The Chargers have seen their team deteriorate over the last few years. They need help in a number of areas. I would start by adding a versatile pass rusher like Upshaw. They could target Riley Reiff if they believe Tackle is a greater need. Upshaw is a polished prospect who not only can, but has played both defensive end and linebacker at a high level.
#19 Chicago Bears – DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina)
One of the toughest decisions was deciding between Coples and Reiff for the Bears. On the one hand Reiff could pair with last year’s first round pick Gabe Carimi to shore up the Bears offensive line. On the other hand, Coples could be a perfect fit in Chicago. He is the prototypical 4-3 end and on talent alone, should be a top 5 pick. His effort was inconsistent in college but Julius Peppers, also a former Tar Heel, could be a great mentor. The Chicago defense is not lacking leadership and I believe it is the right environment for Coples.
#20 Tennessee Titans – DT Michael Brockers (LSU)
Brockers is young but has a lot of upside. The Titans need to retool their defensive line and Brockers is a great building block on the interior. The Titans could trade down as well as they don’t have a ton of glaring holes, and should focus more on acquiring talent, regardless of position.
#21 Cincinnati Bengals – WR Kendall Wright (Baylor)
The Bengals hit a home run with AJ Green last year. He has already established himself as one of the NFL’s best receivers and has a great rapport with fellow rookie QB Andy Dalton. The Bengals #2 receiver right now is Jordan Shipley. Drafting Wright would allow Shipley to move to the slot where he is more effective. If Wright is as billed, the Bengals won’t have to worry about adding receiver help for quite some time.
#22 Cleveland Browns – OT Riley Reiff (Iowa)
The Browns are lucky that a player of Reiff’s caliber falls to #22. He is a polished technician who will be solid on the right side (think Bryan Bulaga – fellow Hawkeye first rounder from 2 years ago). If the Browns draft Trent Richardson as I believe they should, it’s worth drafting Reiff here to make sure Trent has as much help as he can get. This pick also ensures that if and when the Browns find their franchise quarterback, he will be well protected.
#23 Detroit Lions – OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)
At long last, the Lions finally draft an offensive tackle – and a good one in Martin. Not much point discussing other options here. The Lions greatest need is offensive line and Martin is good value at #23. The only other guy I considered is Janoris Jenkins, but Martin is the safer, and better pick.
#24 Pittsburgh Steelers – ILB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)
The Steelers could go a number of different ways with this pick. The offensive line needs improvement, but adding Hightower to a linebacking corps that includes James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons is a dynamite move. Kevin Zeitler or Cordy Glenn would be the offensive line options here if they go that way.
#25 Denver Broncos – DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)
Worthy is a load in the middle of the defense and can eat up double teams for the Broncos. He isn’t an explosive pass rusher, but he can do everything else and has great film against top offensive linemen in this draft class from the Big Ten. Peyton can handle the offense; they need to allow their defense to take the next step after finishing strong last season.
#26 Houston Texans – WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)
Andre Johnson will continue to get double teamed until Houston has a player opposite him that command respect. Hill is raw, but has the height and speed to make an impact early as he develops into a more complete player. The Texans offense is good, but if they want to make a run, they need another receiving threat on the outside.
#27 New England Patriots – OLB Shea Mclellin (Boise State)
Mclellin is a perfect fit for the Patriots multiply scheme front. He fits best as a 3-4 OLB but will rest assured Bill Belichick will get the most out of this high energy player. The Patriots have few, if any needs on the offensive side of the ball, and manufacturing pressure will be vital, especially after losing Andre Carter and Mark Anderson.
#28 Green Bay Packers – DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)
The Packers would love to get Mclellin as he fits perfectly with what they do on defense. He’s not available so they take the next best edge player in the draft. Mercilus can play either OLB or DE in the 3-4 and will be moved around based on down and distance. The Packers need to find people to create pressure on opposing QB’s.
#29 Baltimore Ravens – C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)
Even if current Centre Matt Birk plays next year, it will be his last. Peter Konz isn’t as good as the Pouncey brothers, but he is a very smart player and has a lot of ability. It isn’t a flashy pick, but the Ravens need a new leader on the offensive line, Konz can play guard this year and then take over at centre next season.
#30 San Francisco 49ers – CB Janoris Jenkins (Northern Alabama)
Jenkins is the most talented corner in this year’s draft. He has all the tools to be an elite shutdown corner in the NFL. His problems are off the field as he was kicked off the team at Florida. Jenkins career will largely be dictated by his personal growth and the people he surrounds himself with. Something tells me Jim Harbaugh is the right guy to lead him.
#31 New England Patriots – DE Nick Perry (USC)
The Patriots offense is Super Bowl ready. They need to focus on adding defensive talent and combining Perry with Mclellin will give Belichick a pair of talented pass rushers. In reality the Patriots will likely trade this pick to a team moving up for a QB like Brandon Weeden.
#32 New York Giants – OT/G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)
Everyone has the TE Fleener going to the Giants and he’s a valid option. I just don’t think he’s a first round talent and the Giants can add a capable TE in the 2nd or 3rd round. Glenn is versatile and exactly what the Giants need to ensure that they have depth upfront.
No comments:
Post a Comment