This year's picks finished 169-87, good enough to finish ahead of the 8 ESPN analysts making weekly selections. It was a good year, and I hope that I was able to help some of you win pools or bets at some point throughout the season.
As they say, it's a new season. The playoffs are here and should provide plenty of entertainment. Let's get to the games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Both teams lost going into the playoffs but they did so with different mentalities. The Texans rested a number of guys on defence and limited Andre Johnson considerably on offense. They had nothing to play for and instead took the opportunity to get guys healthy. The Bengals on the otherhand believed they needed a win over the Ravens to secure a wild card spot. They were unable to win and received a fair amount of 'help' to get in.
The Texans defence has been exceptional this year even with the loss of Mario Williams. Jonathan Joseph is playing at a very high level and should be able to handle AJ Green, as long as he gets some safety help. He will no doubt want to shine against his old team that didn't think he was worth the money last offseason. When the Bengals have the ball, the key for them will be to run the ball effectively, if they can do that, it will open up man coverage opportunities that Dalton can take advantage of. The key for the Texans D will be to get pressure and hits on Dalton. Dalton has proven that if he gets time to throw, he can be efficient moving the ball.
Marvin Lewis has the young Bengals defence playing well. The key for them will be stopping the Texans #1 ranked rushing attack. Therein lies the key. The Texans will plan to give Arian Foster 20 carries and Ben Tate an additional 12-15. If they collectively can average over 4 yards a carry, the Texans win. The Bengals defence is in a difficult position. They will likely commit more men to the box to try and stop the Texans run game, but leaving Andre Johnson in man coverage off play action is a recipe for disaster.
Home team gets it done.
Pick: Texans and lay the points (-3)
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
In the last month, 2 things became very obvious when it comes to the Lions. They can score points with the best of them & Steve Young could come out of the booth and throw for 500 yards on their secondary. Lucky for them I don't think New Orleans has a very good quarterback....
The key for the Saints is to attack on both sides of the ball. They need to score early and often to put a lot of pressure on the Lions offence to respond. That in turn will allow the Saints defence to be aggresive and focus on creating turnovers against a one dimensional Lions offence.
The only way I see the Lions winning this game is if Suh and the rest of the defensive line can get pressure on Drew Brees without adding blitz pressure, and if Calvin Johnson imposes his will on the Saints secondary. At this point the Saints D is better than the Lions D and the Saints O is one of the best in NFL history. They're also at home where they are essentially unstoppable.
Pick: Saints but Lions to Cover +11
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
These teams are both extremely dangerous and whoever wins this should be considered a legitamite threat to the 49ers or Packers. The Giants got in the same way they did when they won the Super Bowl - a late season surge led by a ferocious defensive line. Eli Manning has been awesome in the 4th quarter all year and Matt Ryan is on a tear. In the last 7 weeks, Ryan has thrown 15 Touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.
The Giants defensive line is exceptional at rushing the passer. Therefore the Falcons will need to establish their running game with Michael Turner. A 55/45 pass-run split would be ideal for the Falcons. If Matt Ryan is forced to throw the ball 40+ times, he might not make it to the end of the game. Julio Jones and Roddy White should have a field day against the Giants secondary, but only if the Falcons utilize play action to protect Ryan. The Giants have no Linebackers who can cover so Tony Gonzalez figures to be a huge safety net for Ryan if New York's pass rush heats up.
The Giants will have a very similar game plan. Run the ball with Bradshaw/Jacobs, make quick throws out of shotgun and go deep to Nicks and Cruz off play action. The only pass rush threat is John Abraham, and if he gets doubled, Manning could have all day to throw. Bottom line: this should be the best game of the weekend and whoever has the ball last wins.
Pick: Falcons and take the points +3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Is an over/under line of 20 too high for this game? Probably.
The Steelers offence is reeling. Starting RB Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season, Ben Roethlisberger is seriously hobbled by a high ankle sprain and all-star centre Maurkice Pouncey is banged up. Isaac Redman is not going to contribute enough in the run game to win the game, so Big Ben will have to make plays. The Broncos have a good secondary and Von Miller/Elvis Dumervill specialize in getting after the QB. No one can question Roethlisberger's toughness, but this is the playoffs and if any of the Broncos get free, they will take their best shot at the Steeler's pivot. It's not going to be easy for them to score points.
Speaking of difficulty scoring points, let's look at the Broncos offence. Tebow had a miraculous run of 4th quarter comeback wins and then finished the year with 3 straight losses. He looked tentative last week which prompted VP John Elway to say that he needs to 'pull the trigger'. The Steelers defence is going to make things very difficult on Tebow. Instead of optioning the defensive end, it will be the outside linebackers (James Harrison/LaMarr Woodley). If either of those guys get a shot on Tebow, he'll feel it. Troy Polamalu might be put in a spy role on Tebow which would likely limit his production in the run game. It's going to come down to how he throws and how much magic he has left in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Steelers but Broncos to cover the +8.5
Good Luck!
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