Conference Championship Picks

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
The top two seeds square off at Gillette Stadium for a trip to the Super Bowl.  The weather is supposed to be great considering it's January in the North East.  All signs point to a classic.

When the Patriots have the ball
Tom Brady looks like a man on a mission.  He is in the latter part of his Hall of Fame career and in reality, this could be his last trip to the big game.  Brady's play last week would imply two things: 1) despite his age he still looks to be every bit in his prime, and 2) he knows he is on the wrong side of 35 and wants to take advantage of his remaining opportunities.  The big question is how will the Ravens cover the Patriots receivers.  Rob Gronkowski has made it very clear that he cannot be covered by one man.  If the Ravens plan on stopping him, they will need to jam him with a linebacker and provide safety help.  This could open up space for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (both very dangerous threats in their own right).  The Steelers showed that if you can jam the Patriots receivers and get pressure, you can slow the offensive juggernaut.  I expect the Ravens to try a similar strategy.  Ed Reed will play centre field, the Ravens will rush four and hope that Suggs and company can get to Brady before Gronk, Wes, Hernandez or Branch can get open.  If that's Baltimore's plan, expect to see lots of RB Dany Woodhead as Ray Lewis will be forced to play man coverage on the backs.  For the Ravens to be succesful, they will need to attack the ballcarrier and be aggresive.  If they sit back, Brady will pick them apart.

When the Ravens have the ball
Ray Rice will get a lot of touches early as he was a big reason the Ravens beat the Patriots last time they met in the playoffs.  The difference this time around is Brady has an abundance of weapons on offense.  If the Ravens are going to win this one, it will come down to Joe Flacco's ability to make plays in the passing game.  He has an arsenal of weapons, a fabulous offensive line and is facing one of the lowest ranked defenses in the NFL.  Forget the matchups.  This is the game where the world finds out if Joe Flacco is for real.

Pick: Patriots and lay the points (-7)

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
It's supposed to be cold and rainy with a side of mud.  Sounds like some home cooking for the 49ers.

When the Giants have the ball
Good luck trying to run against the 49ers.  The Giants can't completely abandon the run, but Eli will have to make the plays to put up points.  There's no doubt he can do that, but the 49ers are a different beast.  They are the most physical team I've seen in awhile and will cause all sorts of problems for the Giants.  The Smiths (Aldon and Justin) will need to create pressure on Manning (something they can do very well).  I get the impression that the Giants believe they are already destined for a Super Bowl rematch, that doesn't bode well for this week.

When the 49ers have the ball
Alex Smith was exceptional last week in the final minutes, but don't expect him to do too much this weekend.  Mainly because that isn't what got the 49ers this far.  They will run the ball and utilize play action.  If the situation calls for it, Alex Smith can get more aggresive, but I think the Niners will have success running the ball.  The Giants Dline is built to rush the passer.  They beat the Falcons (who abandoned the run too early), and then the Packers (who barely run at all).  The Niners Oline will want to send a message early that they are not a 'finnesse' group.

Pick: 49ers (-2.5)