After starting last week 4-0, finishing 5-3 was a bit of a disappointment. What wasn't disappointing? The OT thriller between the Broncos and the Steelers. Enjoy this weekend - it's the best weekend of the NFL Calendar.
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
It seems like the biggest question facing the New Orleans Saints is whether they can take the show on the road. Playing in the friendly confines of the Super Dome, they have been well , Super. Waiting for them in San Francisco is one of the NFL’s best defenses, and a well-rested one at that. Even if the Saints do require good weather to operate their offensive juggernaut, an outdoor game in San Francisco should certainly ease the indoor-outdoor transition.
The 49ers success this season has been based upon playing tough defense and running the football. If the Saints can score early and get a lead, Niners QB Alex Smith will be pressured into making plays in the passing game. In a shootout between Brees and Smith, Brees wins every time. However, if the 49ers can keep the Saints out of the end zone, then they can let Smith make high percentage throws off play action and wear down the Saints defense that is built more for speed than power.
In reality, the Saints are much better on the road than people give them credit for (16-8 in the last 3 seasons). Alex Smith was good enough to get the 49ers into the playoffs but against New Orleans, he is going to have to make a lot of plays, and I just don’t think he can do enough.
Pick: Saints and to cover the -3.5
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Tebowmania continues this week as the Broncos go on the road to face the top seeded New England Patriots. No one gave Denver a chance against the Steelers last week and they proved that they can beat quality teams playing their style. How sustainable this offence is in the future doesn’t matter. What does matter is that it has proven to be effective in the present and when the chips are down, Tebow has proved that he can make plays.
Don’t believe the hype about how the last time these two teams played the Patriots blew the Broncos out. In the first quarter, the Broncos rushed for 160 yards against the NFL’s #31 ranked defense. Last week, Tebow threw for 316 yards against the Steelers – a much better defense. What plagued the Broncos last time was turnovers. They turned the ball over 3 times in the 2nd quarter which is akin to signing your own death certificate when playing Tom Brady. The keys for Denver are to control the time of possession and have zero turnovers. If they can win the turnover battle, they have a chance to make it close at the end.
When the Patriots are on offence, they have proved almost impossible to slow down, let alone stop. The only time they really showed signs of struggling was early this season against the Steelers. Pittsburgh played press man-to-man coverage and blitzed Brady, which actually was very successful. It’s also what the Jets did last year in the playoffs to Brady and the Pats. Earlier this season when they played, Denver only rushed 3 linemen and dropped everyone into coverage. Bad idea. Brady just sat back and picked their defense apart. Expect Fox to turn loose Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller while playing press man coverage in the secondary. The only way to beat Brady is to get hits on him and not give his receivers time or space to get open.
Pick: Patriots but definitely take the Broncos to cover +13.5
Houston @ Baltimore
This is the most ‘old school’ football game of the week, where the keys will be running the ball and playing suffocating defense. The Ravens are much better when playing at home, especially Joe Flacco, who will be relied upon to win this game.
Houston runs the ball better than anyone in the league. Their zone running game featuring Arian Foster is exceptional and the threat of Andre Johnson in the passing game will force the Ravens to keep safeties deep. Despite the numbers, I believe the Ravens run defense has regressed as of late. Since coming back from injury, Ray Lewis has missed more tackles than I’ve seen him miss his entire career. He will need to be at his very best to stop the Texans run game.
It all comes down to Flacco. He will need to score points early so that pressure is put on the Texans offence – more specifically rookie QB TJ Yates. If he struggles, the Texans can continue to pound the rock on offence and ‘hide’ Yates with play action. If Ray Rice doesn’t get 30+ touches I’ll be shocked. In the end, I think the Texans are physical enough and play good enough defensively to keep it close. Even though I don’t have a ton of faith in Flacco, I have to believe he will make the plays that Yates can’t.
Pick: Ravens but Texans +7.5
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Up until this season it was common for the defending Super Bowl champions to miss the playoffs as part of the ‘Super Bowl Hangover’. Apparently no one told the Packers. They cruised through the regular season with one of the most prolific offenses in recent memory. Their defense gets a bad rap, but part of the reason they give up so many yards is because opposing teams are constantly throwing on them to try and catch up. However, the Giants are as hot as any team in the league right now and should be considered a serious threat to Green Bay.
Eli Manning has been exceptional this season. It was his play that kept the Giants alive when they were inundated with injuries. He’s been the best QB in the fourth quarter which proves that the Giants are dangerous with the game on the line. Their run game has been very strong lately as well and that balance has made the Giants offense very effective. The Packers secondary is strong, but they can’t cover forever. The key when the Giants have the ball will be how much pressure Dom Capers can get on Manning. If they can’t rush the passer, expect a shootout.
The only way you can dream of slowing down Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him without blitzing. The Giants are the perfect team to do that. Their defensive line is the best in the league at rushing the passer which has helped mask a relatively weak secondary. Rodgers will need to use draws and quick step passes early to slow down the rush. The spread is way too high on this game, but the Packers will remind everyone that no flash in the pan, streaky team is going to come into their house and hand them only their 2nd all year.
Pick: Packers but Giants to cover +9.5
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